The draft is not a crap shoot

Since 1979 there have been 56 centers drafted with picks 1 through 4
46 of them had career averages of at least 25 minutes per game (25 minutes is starter minutes) for 82.1%
6 of 42 centers with picks 15 through 18 with career averages of at least 25 minutes for 14.3%
2 of 37 centers with picks 27 through 30 with career averages of at least 25 minutes for 5.4%

swish

All this says is that players drafted in the top 4 picks are more likely to play 25mpg (I'm not sure how you came to the "25 minutes are starter minutes" conclusion. Why not 28-30?).  This is somewhat intuitively obvious since players that are drafted in the top positions tend to go to crappy teams who need all the help they can get, which is usually NOT in the form of quality free agents, and play their young'uns a lot. It is rare for a team that sucks badly enough to get that high a pick and have the luxury of bringing that player off the bench. You need a GM like Danny Ainge to put you in that position.

Playing 25mpg doesn't necessarily mean you're good, it just means the coach is putting you in and, as I said above, when the team sucks badly enough to get a top 4 pick there's no reason not to pencil a top 4 pick into a heavy role.  I'll bet if you do the same analysis for players at all positions for draft picks 1-4 you'll see similar results.

Top 4 picks might not be that much of a crap shoot, but your analysis of draft picks below 4 suggests that it is once you fall out of the top 10-15% of the first round.  There's a lot more iceberg below 15% than there is above it.


bob


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bob

I arrived at starter minutes being about 25 minutes per game by listing the players in 2017-18 that played in at least 50 of the 82 games (61%) with the result that 148 players of 150 had qualified - divided by 30 teams = 4.933 players per team.

swish

bob

http://bkref.com/tiny/XgvBL

Above is the list of players that were drafted with the number 1 through 4 picks

swish

bob

And here's the draft list for those drafted 27 through 30

http://bkref.com/tiny/PBLPx

swish

bob

And here's the draft list for those drafted 15 through 18.

http://bkref.com/tiny/STCjU

swish

Swish,

I've always considered the very notion that the draft is a crap shoot as somewhere between silly and misinformed.

There is never any guarantee of what a player will do upon joining the NBA. Without the scouting and workouts that are done as part of the pre-draft evaluation, however, teams would have no clue who to take. My thinking has always been that it's impossible to do that much pre-work and call it a crap-shoot. If it was a crap-shoot the very fact that so many highly drafted players become stars would never happen. There would be an equal number of superstars emerging from the back end of the draft. Yes some prized picks wash out. That's true of sports, law, medicine and accounting as well as all lines of work. You still do your research and evaluation and take the top of the class.

No surprise to me that you show the ones who are evaluated to be the best, so often are.

Crap-shoot. Please. Not a chance.

Nice research and good point.

Regards