Now That Kyrie Irving Committed, What Exactly Does This Mean For The Team Moving Forward

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Now That Kyrie Irving Committed, What Exactly Does This Mean For The Team Moving Forward



Greenie
10/5/2018 4:55 PM



Alright, by now hopefully you’ve come down a little bit from yesterday’s announcement. Now that we know Kyrie is committed to the long term, there’s two things you can do. You can be salty and dissect the fact that he said “Plan to re-sign” and say things like


– “See he said PLAN! That’s not set in stone! He’s still leaving!”

– “Yeah just like he told that kid in CLE he was staying and left!”

– “We didn’t even want Kyrie anyways, enjoy that knee!”

I get it, either you’re butt hurt Kyrie is not joining your favorite team, or you need things to still talk about on the radio. You do you. Personally, I chose to take this opportunity to look ahead, and try and figure out what’s in store for this team factoring in Kyrie getting max money. Here is what I found.

As of now, here is a look at the Celtics commitments in salary for next season




OK there’s a lot of information here so let me take it from the top. Anything in green is considered a “Player Option”. Obviously, we know that Kyrie would be turning down his $21M number and this will be replaced with a max money number. You also can assume Horford will not turn down his $30M player option because no chance he gets that money on the open market. Now could he restructure to help the team? Sure, but I’m not banking on that. For the sake of this blog let’s say Kyrie’s numbers are 5/188M so around $37M a year. Anything in red is a team option. Now Jaylen could reach an early extension this summer, but Ainge has one done that I think once or twice in his entire tenure as the Celtics GM, so I’m going to assume they simply just pick up his option. The other part of this exercise are the Cap Holds. it would not shock me if they did not keep Morris, but because the Celtics are over the cap, getting rid of his number does not grant them new cap space. I just don’t think they need him after this year. The other two guys they probably do try and keep are both Theis and Rozier (who we’ll get to in a minute). If you add this all up including Kyrie’s new deal, the Celtics have a cap number of around $140M. That’s pretty damn expensive, and seeing as how the luxury tax threshold is $132M, this obviously means Wyc has to pay a tax bill.

Obviously, with this Kyrie news, and then their commitment to Smart this past summer, all the focus now shifts to Terry Rozier. In an ideal world, Terry takes a team friendly extension and is here for years to come. However, how can we expect him to limit his earning potential when teams are going to be foaming at the mouth to give him starter money? Let’s say there’s a team out there that gives him the exact same offer in RFA that Smart got from the Celtics this summer: 4/52M or around 11-13M a year. I’ll tell you right now, it’s going to be hard to convince me the Celtics will be down to have a $150M payroll (not even factoring whatever Theis gets). You look at the most expensive rosters in the league right now (OKC/GS) and they are both under $145M. In a perfect world, Horford redoes his deal to like 12-15M and they use that left over money to match anything for Terry. Again that is so unlikely I shouldn’t even mention it, but I’m trying to speak it into existence.

So if the Celts are faced with the reality that they may be losing Terry next year, what does Ainge do? It would be so off brand to just let an asset walk for nothing, which makes me fearful that next February is going to be a stressful ass time. Maybe a package of Morris/Rozier to help fill a need or something? Even with Kyrie signing long term, I still want Terry around for the injury insurance, but he’s going to want to start and get his, as he should. I think if Ainge doesn’t trade him in February, it’s because Wyc has told him fuck it, that he’ll pay whatever it costs to keep this team together. Another pipedream, but Wyc has said he’ll pay the tax for a contender soooooo.

Now this next part is sort of breaking my own rules, but I have to mention it because people are going to talk about it. I know there are going to be some that want the Celtics to trade for Anthony Davis this February. Just forget that thought because they can’t, given the Rose Rule. However, once Kyrie signs that new deal with the Celtics this summer, they technically should be able to bring in another Rose Rule player in Davis. If you figure Jaylen would have to be part of that trade, it’s important to remember they won’t be able to trade him next summer once he gets his new deal. They have to wait a few months. Seeing as how Davis has multiple years left on his contract, I wouldn’t start seriously considering this possibility until NEXT February. Personally, I would just wait out Davis until he hits the market at 27 where you don’t have to trade all your young talent, but it has to be said that this Kyrie extension does make trading for Davis a little more of a potential possibility because those Rose Rule restrictions will be gone.

Look this is all stuff we don’t need to worry about right now, I just care about you and want you to be prepared for what the future may have in store. In the short term this team is healthy, committed, and ready to roll for the regular season. Their biggest distraction just evaporated, and the team and Kyrie can focus on basketball and more importantly living up to the hype (which they haven’t done yet). Yesterday was obviously the biggest domino to fall as it pretty much dictates the future of this roster, and look if we as a fanbase have to start a GoFundMe in order to keep Terry in Boston then god dammit that’s exactly what we’ll do.

11 more days folks, get ready.


bob


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If (and, is still an 'if' because no contract is yet signed) Irving decides to stay in Boston, my first thoughts are that Ainge seriously has to consider trading either Marcus Smart or Terry Rozier.

Signing Irving for a max contract is going to just about double his current salary on a per year basis. The Cs are still a business, and will have to put some kind of cap on their own spending at some point. Next season Irving, Horford and Hayward will be right around $100 million by themselves. The cap is projected to be somewhere around 110 million, and the Cs will have to pay Smart, Brown, Tatum and the rest of the gang for far more than just the 10 M left before going over the cap. Actually, even without Rozier getting a huge raise (if they want him back) they will be already far over the cap.

I guess that the owners will have to decide just how much money they want to pay out in salaries. From my point of view, they should go as far into the tax situation as it takes to keep our team at the top since I do not pay any of the tax.

Bob

I assume your are referring to next summer.

("Now Jaylen could reach an early extension this summer, but Ainge has one done that I think once or twice in his entire tenure as the Celtics GM, so I’m going to assume they simply just pick up his option.)"

I think this thread should be integrated int the Terry Rozier thread.

But here are my thoughts.

The Celtics will need to trade either Marcus Smart or Terry Rozier. I agree with Wydeclyde on this. They DO NOT have to do this until next summer although something may happen in February, 2019.

As a RFA Terry should command something in the $15-$18 million dollar range if he has a really good year but even if his value was the same as Smart, the Celtics are unlikely to commit to spending $60 plus million per year on 3 point guards.

They are going to be a tax payer for a while.

Before we get too bent out of shape about losing Terry or making a trade with either him or Marcus for player X, the Celtics still have enough first round drafts assets to replace either one of them.

Their focus must be on keeping Kyrie, Brown and Tatum. Next year AH will have his $30 million player option. That will be his last big time annual salary.

I think you let him play out his option.

When the 2020-21 season begins presumably Brown will be on a new pay scale. I think he will get $25 million provided he takes another big jump in his productivity and skill level.

The same year that Jaylen gets his raise will be the last year of Haywards contract so the following year there should be enough money to lock Jason in.

Of course over the next 3 years Danny is likely to make a trade so all of what I am saying here is highly speculative.

If Danny maintains his timeline approach to his decision making neither Horford or Hayward will be on this team for the 2021-22 season unless they are willing to take a paycut with an extended contract.

No need for anyone to be too concerned about losing Terry. Great kid and a hard worker but most definitely replaceable.

dboss wrote:Bob

I assume your are referring to next summer.

("Now Jaylen could reach an early extension this summer, but Ainge has one done that I think once or twice in his entire tenure as the Celtics GM, so I’m going to assume they simply just pick up his option.)"

I think this thread should be integrated int the Terry Rozier thread.

But here are my thoughts.

The Celtics will need to trade either Marcus Smart or Terry Rozier.  I agree with Wydeclyde on this.  They DO NOT have to do this until next summer although something may happen in February, 2019.

As a RFA Terry should command something in the $15-$18 million dollar range if he has a really good year  but even if his value was the same as Smart, the Celtics are unlikely to commit to spending $60 plus million per year on 3 point guards.

They are going to be a tax payer for a while.  

Before we get too bent out of shape about losing Terry or making a trade with either him or Marcus for player X, the Celtics still have enough first round drafts assets to replace either one of them.

Their focus must be on keeping Kyrie, Brown and Tatum.  Next year AH will have his $30 million player option.  That will be his last big time annual salary.

I think you let him play out his option.

When the 2020-21 season begins presumably Brown will be on a new pay scale.  I think he will get $25 million provided he takes another big jump in his productivity and skill level.

The same year that Jaylen gets his raise will be the last year of Haywards contract so the following year there should be enough money to lock Jason in.

Of course over the next 3 years Danny is likely to make a trade so all of what I am saying here is highly speculative.

If Danny maintains his timeline approach to his decision making neither Horford or Hayward will be on this team for the 2021-22 season unless they are willing to take a paycut with an extended contract.

No need for anyone to be too concerned about losing Terry.   Great kid and a hard worker but most definitely replaceable.

bob I just realized that you did not compose this.

("Now Jaylen could reach an early extension this summer, but Ainge has one done that I think once or twice in his entire tenure as the Celtics GM, so I’m going to assume they simply just pick up his option.)"


I should have figured that out since it is a poorly written piece.

I guess I need to click on the link

I saw Wyc on my friend Mr Felger's show two weeks ago.  Felger kept harping on the luxury tax, and Wyc kept smiling all the time. His statement was that they are in this for championships, and those cost $$$$$.  Felger asked him repeatedly about how much this would cost.
Wyc smiled and thanked him for reminding him, his dislike of Felger is amost as much as mine!!!!!  I think he does these interviews just to let Felger know that they don't care what others think, they will do what is right for the team.  It was quite amusing to watch him toy with him

Premature to speculate.

Nice that Kyrie says he will sign and stay, but I'll believe it when his signature hits the contract.

Nothing against Kyrie, It's just the nature of professional sports.

My thinking is as follows today.
1) IF Irving signs a max deal in the $35M plus level

then

Both Morris and Rozier will leave for more cash (and yes Ainge has let players he drafted leave in FA'y before)

Ainge will try to re-sign Theis to a marlet deal ( $5M?).

that would leave the roster as:

irving
Hayward
Horford
Tatum
Brown
Smart
Baynes
Theis
Semi
Rob Williams

as 10 rotational players

Yabusele would probably be picked up in this scenario also

leaving 4 spots open.

Ainge will have from 2 to 4 first round picks, so lest assume we have the kings pick (top 5) and our own pick at the end of the first round.

final two spots would be Wannamaker, Bird (if cleared) or two new Minimum wage players to fill the end of the roster.

I think there is a GOOD chance that Horford WILL sign a new extension and opt out next year. a new 3 year deal in the $15m per year range will give him about $15M additional dollars over the contract length and help lower the tax penalty each year for the team.

I will not waste any energy worrying about salary cap issues, that is what they get the big bucks for!!! Whenever we spend hours and hours, days and nights, coming up with issues, contracts, trades, etc we are usually wrong. So why waste the energy.

As far as Kyrie is concerned, he said it, outright. Why would he make a fool of himself and reneg. Again, wasted time of a subject I will watch next June 30 -
July 1.

Lets use the energy we are wasting on this topic to discussions about the team and why they are struggling. My theory is they are busy playing me ball.
what do you think?

KDP59

I agree that both Rozier and Morris are likely to sign elsewhere at the end of the season.  I think Boston will not trade Rozier because they need him this year to win.  Morris may be in the same situation unless Semi shows great improvement between now and February.

Suitors for Rozier include (Bucks, Nets, Magic, Pacers, Clippers and Suns)  All of them could use an upgrade at the point and all of them will have enough CAP space to offer Terry a $15+ million contract if they really want him.

As you mentioned Boston is looking at 2-4 potential first rounders.  The Memphis pick is top 8 protected and I'm betting we land that pick.  Of course both Conley and Gasol will need to stay healthy.

Wyc may be smiling but owners are smart enough to not exceed their payroll if they can replace a guy through the draft.  The only way Terry will be on this team is if Boston trades Marcus Smart.

So Boston can replace both Terry and Morris through the draft but those replacement will be prospects.  

I can see Horford opting out and resigning a new deal with Boston but there is no way he gives up $30 for one year to make $45 in 3.  I think Boston needs to proceed with caution because Al Horford is a player that is declining each year.  And they will be mindful of what it is going to cost to keep both Brown and Tatum.  

I think we will all have a much better feel by the end of the season.

A top 5 pick 2019 probably does not get you a great PG or a great center prospect.

I agreemostly, Dboss

but on this:

A top 5 pick 2019 probably does not get you a great PG or a great center prospect.

hard to say for sure now, if its #2 pick it could. but more to the point of this thread , a top 5 pick SHOULD get you a replacement for either Rozier or Morris, IMO.

if we get the Memphis pick along with the Kings pick, Danny can replace both players with the draft.

the rozier situation can be handled by killing two birds with one stone if Rozier continues to get better
offer to do a sign and trade with N/O fr Rozier and Morris & however many draft picks we got that it takes to get Davis. Rozier on a long term deal, Morris on a 2 yr deal with a team option for year 2..

if we just plan on that, two topics can already dealt with that would otherwise come up once a week during the regular season.. now we can all just rest and concentrate on this upcoming season.

kdp59 wrote:I agreemostly,  Dboss

but on this:

A top 5 pick 2019 probably does not get you a great PG or a great center prospect.

hard to say for sure now, if its #2 pick it could. but more to the point of this thread , a top 5 pick SHOULD get you a replacement for either Rozier or Morris, IMO.

if we get the Memphis pick along with the Kings pick, Danny can replace both players with the draft.

kdps

I made that observation based on the 2019 draft class.  Lots of wings in the mix and a few PF in top10.  The two PG's I have seen mentioned in the top 5 are Aston Hagans - KY and Quentin Grimmes - KS.  neither however are consensus top 5 selections.  As far as centers go nothing much there either.  Obviously way too early to get a feel but I think by early next year we should have a better take on our draft positions as well as the top prospects.

I think Boston is going to end up with 2 top 10 picks.

Grimes looks good 6' 5" PG with handle and hops and can score...hmmm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2VLXWWVsSA

Here's what it means going forward:  "All I know is destroy".




bob


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