POST GAME INDY - AWAY

Celtics Wrap: Victor Oladipo’s Late 3-Pointer Sinks Boston In 102-101 Loss

NESN by Adam London on Sat, Nov 3, 2018 at 9:31PM

In a battle of what could be a playoff preview, the Indiana Pacers proved they aren’t the slightest bit intimidated by the Boston Celtics. The Pacers claimed victory in a thriller Saturday night at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, as they got the last punch in on the Celtics to claim a hard-fought 102-101 victory. Victor Oladipo (24-points), as he often is, was the difference-maker for Indiana. After a fairly quiet start to the game, the star guard began to heat up in the second half, culminating with a game-winning 3-pointer with seconds remaining. Marcus Morris’ team-high 23 points was just one of five double-digit performances for the C’s, but it wasn’t enough to earn a road win. With the loss, the Celtics fall to 6-3, while the Pacers improve to 7-4. Here’s how it all went down:

STARTING FIVE PG: Kyrie Irving SG: Jaylen Brown SF: Jayson Tatum PF: Gordon Hayward C: Al Horford

GET ‘EM UP The Celtics were letting it fly in Thursday’s win over the Milwaukee Bucks, and that trend continued against the Pacers. Boston was cold as ice to start, connecting on one of its first 12 shots, but the visitors turned things around by hitting 10 of their last 15 attempts to claim a 28-18 lead after the opening 12 minutes. There were 3-pointers galore in the first quarter, but neither side had much success as the two sides combined for a 4-for-22 mark from beyond the arc. Morris led all scorers in the early going with eight, while Irving (six points) and Tatum (five points) weren’t far behind.

DEADLOCK It was a back-and-forth affair in the second, which concluded with the two teams tied at 45-45 thanks in large part to the Pacers closing the quarter on an 11-3 run. The Celtics weren’t able to maintain the momentum after finishing the first quarter strong, as the C’s connected on just six shots in the frame as part of their 30-percent shooting mark from the field. Both teams received a lift from the bench in the frame. Morris provided six points courtesy of two 3-pointers to lead all scorers at the break with 14. Tyreke Evans, who was held scoreless in the first, provided seven points for Indiana. Oladipo (10 points) joined Morris as the only players to be in double figures at the half.

STRIDE FOR STRIDE It was more of the same in the third, as neither side could create much separation. While the Pacers were able to grab a six-point lead near the halfway point of the quarter, the Celtics didn’t let things get out of hand and settled for a 72-72 tie heading into the fourth. The C’s were powered by a pair of veterans in the third. After Horford collected nine points in the first five-plus minutes, Morris continued his big night with nine points of his own in the final 4:46 of the quarter. Indiana didn’t shoot particularly well in the third, but Bojan Bogdanović’s 10 points in the frame provided the bulk of the home team’s offense.

DOWN TO THE WIRE The Celtics and Pacers traded punch after punch, as neither side could build a lead larger than three points for the bulk the fourth quarter. After an Irving 3-pointer put Boston up 98-95 with 1:08 to play, Oladipo trimmed the Celtics’ lead back to one with a mid-range jumper. That was until Irving connected on another bucket from beyond the arc to swell the C’s lead to 101-97 with 37 seconds remaining. A pair of Oladipo free throws cut Boston’s lead back to two, and Irving’s ensuing miss underneath the basket opened the door for the Pacers. Oladipo took advantage of the opportunity, as he drilled a 3-pointer with 4.7 seconds to go to give Indiana a 102-101 lead. Boston had more than enough time to potentially win the game, but Hayward threw the ball away on the inbound pass to seal an Indiana win.

PLAY OF THE GAME Oladipo with ice in his veins.

UP NEXT The Celtics play the second contest of their five-game road trip Monday night against the Denver Nuggets. Tip-off from Pepsi Center is set for 9 p.m. ET.

Tough loss but not devastating. Pacers are a good team, they play hard and McMillan is, imo, a good and underrated coach. Oladipo is a star. If I had to rank the best players in the east I'd go Kahwi, Giannis, Kyrie, Embiid, and Oladipo. While I do wish we'd attack the basket a bit more to try too draw more fouls, I see no need for any knee-jerk changes in scheme, personnel or rotation. We are going to be more than fine, by April we will be a machine (barring injuries of course).

It's the damn 3 pointers...

KJ

"It's the damn 3 pointers..."

Agreed. Our attempts are slightly above league avg, our makes and % is near the top but I think we do get 3pt happy at times and I'd love to see us use our athleticism (Brown, Tatum, Rozier, Kyrie and Haywood) to drive past defenders as they rush out to defend the 3pt line. Use our reputation as 3 point gunners and the threat of the 3 to catch defenders off balance and unable to react to dribble penetration.

The 3 point weapon is part of the NBA arsenal and Boston has more than embraced its' utilization.  When and who takes these 3 pointers is important.  Last night Boston shot very well from the arc at 41.3%  but 46-88 FGA's was a three point shot.  

I would like to see more diversity in their offense.  More attempts at the hoop and shots in the paint will produce more free throw attempts.  This would also put players on other teams in foul trouble and a trip to the bench.

I would also like to see more fast break points.  The Celtics are 14th in the league.  The Celtics have more than enough depth to play fast for 48 minutes.  

This game could have gone either way and I think it was a strong effort by Boston.

I'd like to see less lazy threes. That is when there is little ball movement or just outside passing prior to the shot. They need to work it inside (touch the paint) and then pass it out for the shoot. I think Tommy calls it inside - out, or something like that.

Inside - out can lead to more fouls on the other team and more fritos for the guys in green. Getting the other team to react to their players being in foul trouble leads to better matchup for us.

Last night we started off by missing our first 5 or 6 shots, with most of them being lazy threes. That is just about unwatchable, IMO. It did get better, but I may have to create a stat count each game for lazy threes taken.

gyso

Don't blame the 3 point shooting - the league average is .355% and the Celts shot a outstanding .436 vs the Bucks and .413 vs the Pacers. On the other hand - the league average for 2 point shooting percent is .515 while the Celts were a very poor .436 vs the Bucks and .413 vs the pacers. That's a 1950-60 two point shooting level.

  swish

More data on Celtic shooting woes. The Celtics this year are shooting 2's at a .469 clip and 3's at a .357 rate while the Warriors are knocking down 2's at .580 clip and 3's at a .414 rate - and now for the good news - early season stats can change drastically over a full season.

swish

Even GS does not attempt this many 3 point shots and your 45% on 3 the last two games is higher than what I saw.

Anyways the point I would like to make is that a more diverse offensive attack may serve the team well. 3 PA should not be half of all the shots that you take.

IND is a very good team. Are they beatable? Absolutely. Should we have won that game? Absolutely. We had them down by 16 and should have finished them off then. But it's coming. Patience. We've waited 10 years for this. A few more games of greasing the wheels and working the kinks out ain't gonna hurt anybody.

I believe the first couple of minutes of the IND game was an experiment by Brad. This was an away game against a very good team in the East. Someone we are going to see several times during the season and in the playoffs depending upon the draw. Since we went bananas shooting three vs. TOR the game before, Brad wanted to see if coming out of the gate bombing from downtown works. I'm going to guess he had about a 10-shot leash on this idea and he said go Geico on IND and Fire at Will. (Great ad, BTW!) The first shots all caromed off the rim almost exactly the same way. Now granted the NBA has rules and protocol for regulating the goals in each arena but there is a difference between the familiarity of home and the unfamiliar of being on the road. It's a small subtle adjustment but it's a big one now. Now the C's (made the adjustments during and after those first 8 shots and then they started falling in. We started 0-8 and finished at 41%. ( BTW, does the NBA break down 3pt shooting by guarded vs. unguarded? That may become a very interesting stat going forward the open season on 3's this year. I may backtrack a couple of games for a sample space and see what comes of it.)

Brad saw what he was looking for, though, in this experiment. If teams aren't going to guard us on the 3 line, we are eventually going to kill you at home or on the road. Our opponents will die by our open three. Making opoen threes at home...piece of cake. Making threes on the road in a hostile environment against the best in the league, more difficult but if you can shoot at a 41% clip and you are OPEN...fire away until the cows come home.

Let's give Oladepo some credit. He made the game winning shot. Irving missed a layup that would have won it. We're not going 82-0 and 16-0. Neither is anyone else. What I believe Brad is forming now is the knockout punch early. I would expect the Denver game tohavee the same start. If they are hitting, the game is over in the first 5 minutes. If you don't play defense, which is pretty much the whole WC, prepare for the awesome power of a fully operational Death Star because we will start hitting those open threes. And if it's not open there is a Grand Canyon of space around the basket for some easy layups, open jumpers, etc. in the meantime. That's the next step for Brad...mastering the inside/outside game and the cadence that maximizes our conversion of points on the scoreboard.

It comes down to expected value. The 2018 expected approx. value of a FT is 1 point x 75%= .75 points. The EV of a normal basket is 2 points x 46% = .92 points. The EV for 3 point shots for the league is 3 points x .356 = 1.068 points. (Courtesy of www.basketball-reference.com). The numbers for open 3's is probably more spectacular.

What Brad probably asked the boys Saturday was can all of you collectively hit 40%+ for the three ball, if open. They just went 43% vs. TOR on Thursday. If you redo the math above, the Celtic EV for a three comes to close to 1.2 @ 40%. In a game of inches, where they make 20 threes in a game, they've added 4 points to their final score, other things equal. It is 25% more valuable to the Celtics to shoot the 3 ball. That's hard if not impossible to ignore.

Now, there are some negative risks EV doesn't measure. Like when a missed three clanks off the back of the rim and leads to a fast break the other way, etc. You get the picture, though.

Let's see what happens at the start of the DEN game this week. I'll gladly eat crow if I'm mistaken. In the end, Brad will have to adjust the offense each time down for flow and keeping the defense guessing. But easy threes, layups, And 1's plus open jumpers by the Haywards and Morris' are the keys to the early knockout punch Brad is looking for. GSW waits to the third quarter. Celtics are trying to do it early and then just demoralize you for 3 more quarters. Much more devastating.

db

dboss wrote:Even GS does not attempt this many 3 point shots and your 45% on 3 the last two games is higher than what I saw.

Anyways the point I would like to make is that a more diverse offensive attack may serve the team well.  3 PA should not be half of all the shots that you take.  

Good catch dboss - I corrected the shooting percentages.

swish

Swish,

Thanks for the comparison between us and the Warriors for 2 and 3 point shots. Do you know how we compare to them in made frito percent and total fritos made?

With them being heavy bombers, it makes me wonder if they do not get to the line as much as their opponents, like us.

gyso

dbrown4 wrote:IND is a very good team.  Are they beatable?  Absolutely.  Should we have won that game?  Absolutely.  We had them down by 16 and should have finished them off then.  But it's coming.  Patience.  We've waited 10 years for this.  A few more games of greasing the wheels and working the kinks out ain't gonna hurt anybody.    

I believe the first couple of minutes of the IND game was an experiment by Brad.  This was an away game against a very good team in the East.  Someone we are going to see several times during the season and in the playoffs depending upon the draw.  Since we went bananas shooting three vs. TOR the game before, Brad wanted to see if coming out of the gate bombing from downtown works.  I'm going to guess he had about a 10-shot leash on this idea and he said go Geico on IND and Fire at Will.  (Great ad, BTW!)  The first shots all caromed off the rim almost exactly the same way.  Now granted the NBA has rules and protocol for regulating the goals in each arena but there is a difference between the familiarity of home and the unfamiliar of being on the road.  It's a small subtle adjustment but it's a big one now.  Now the C's (made the adjustments during and after those first 8 shots and then they started falling in.  We started 0-8 and finished at 41%. ( BTW, does the NBA break down 3pt shooting by guarded vs. unguarded?  That may become a very interesting stat going forward the open season on 3's this year. I may backtrack a couple of games for a sample space and see what comes of it.)

Brad saw what he was looking for, though, in this experiment.  If teams aren't going to guard us on the 3 line, we are eventually going to kill you at home or on the road.  Our opponents will die by our open three.  Making opoen threes at home...piece of cake.  Making threes on the road in a hostile environment against the best in the league, more difficult but if you can shoot at a 41% clip and you are OPEN...fire away until the cows come home.

Let's give Oladepo some credit.  He made the game winning shot.  Irving missed a layup that would have won it.  We're not going 82-0 and 16-0.  Neither is anyone else.  What I believe Brad is forming now is the knockout punch early.  I would expect the Denver game tohavee the same start.  If they are hitting, the game is over in the first 5 minutes.  If you don't play defense, which is pretty much the whole WC, prepare for the awesome power of a fully operational Death Star because we will start hitting those open threes.  And if it's not open there is a Grand Canyon of space around the basket for some easy layups, open jumpers, etc. in the meantime. That's the next step for Brad...mastering the inside/outside game and the cadence that maximizes our conversion of points on the scoreboard.

It comes down to expected value.  The 2018 expected approx. value of a FT is 1 point x 75%= .75 points.  The EV of a normal basket is 2 points x 46% = .92 points.  The EV for 3 point shots for the league is 3 points x .356 = 1.068 points.  (Courtesy of www.basketball-reference.com).  The numbers for open 3's is probably more spectacular.  

What Brad probably asked the boys Saturday was can all of you collectively hit 40%+ for the three ball, if open.  They just went 43% vs. TOR on Thursday.  If you redo the math above, the Celtic EV for a three comes to close to 1.2 @ 40%.  In a game of inches, where they make 20 threes in a game, they've added 4 points to their final score, other things equal.  It is 25% more valuable to the Celtics to shoot the 3 ball.  That's hard if not impossible to ignore.  

Now, there are some negative risks EV doesn't measure.  Like when a missed three clanks off the back of the rim and leads to a fast break the other way, etc.  You get the picture, though.

Let's see what happens at the start of the DEN game this week.  I'll gladly eat crow if I'm mistaken.  In the end, Brad will have to adjust the offense each time down for flow and keeping the defense guessing.  But easy threes, layups, And 1's plus open jumpers by the Haywards and Morris' are the keys to the early knockout punch Brad is looking for.  GSW waits to the third quarter.  Celtics are trying to do it early and then just demoralize you for 3 more quarters.  Much more devastating.    

db                    

I believe there should be a correction in your expected value. Overall the league is shooting 46% this year on 41.1 made shots vs 89.5 attempted shots - of which 11.1 were made 3 point shots on 31.3 attempts - which must be deducted from the total figures. Leaving 30.0 made 2 point shots on 58.2 attempts for a .515 shooting percent on 2 point attempts.

swish

swish,

You are correct. I omitted that. Nice catch. So EV(Basket) is 1.03, correct?

I actually had another thought. From a defensive perspective, it would seem to indicate that the optimal mix of 3's and 2's would be approx 50%/50% since they yield just about the same EV? Yet you apply them in a random fashion. In other words, you wouldn't come down court, launch a 3, then next time shoot a jump shot, otherwise the defense would figure you out and adjust their defense accordingly. Hence the need for the coach. He determines the mix and play calling sequence. The more random the better.

db

Swish

And what about FT

gyso wrote:Swish,

Thanks for the comparison between us and the Warriors for 2 and 3 point shots.  Do you know how we compare to them in made frito percent and total fritos made?

With them being heavy bombers, it makes me wonder if they do not get to the line as much as their opponents, like us.

gyso

I hope that this is the info that your looking for. The Celts are taking 37.3 3 point attempts per game and 19.8 free throws per game for a free throw percentage of .531%.
The Warriors are taking 32.1 3 point attempts per game and 22.5 free throw attempts per game for a free throw percentage of .701%. Much better free throw to 3 point attempts ratio by Warriors.


swish

dboss wrote:Swish

And what about FT

s://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/fta-per-fga

dboss

Above link list the teams from top to bottom based on free throw attempts per field goal attempts. The Celtics are 29th - but then the Warriors, Bucks, Raptors, and Pacers are also in the bottom 10.

swish

gyso wrote:I'd like to see less lazy threes.  That is when there is little ball movement or just outside passing prior to the shot.  They need to work it inside (touch the paint) and then pass it out for the shoot.  I think Tommy calls it inside - out, or something like that.

Inside - out can lead to more fouls on the other team and more fritos for the guys in green.  Getting the other team to react to their players being in foul trouble leads to better matchup for us.

Last night we started off by missing our first 5 or 6 shots, with most of them being lazy threes.  That is just about unwatchable, IMO.  It did get better, but I may have to create a stat count each game for lazy threes taken.

gyso

+1

This game was tied at halftime. Tied after 3 quarters. Tied with 4 minutes left. About as close as a game can be, with two very different styles.

If Kyrie hits that layup - one he will hit 9/10 times. The Celtics win. Simple as that.

The vast majority of the shots the Celtics took last night were good shots. If the ball hits the paint and ends up in one of the corners for an open 3, that is a good shot. Whether it goes in or not, that is a good shot.

I will keep saying this, some of you are missing the point that THIS is the way the NBA is going. I dont happen to like it all the time either, but it is heading toward more 3 point shooting and is a simple make or miss league. Thats it. The style that Indiana plays might appeal to old school fans, but it WILL NOT win championships in the modern NBA.

If your MO is to come out here and bitch about the number of 3 pointers every night, when in fact the Celtics are not nearly at the top of the list of 3 point attempts - it is going to be a long season for you.

dbrown4 wrote:swish,

You are correct.  I omitted that.  Nice catch.  So EV(Basket) is 1.03, correct?  

I actually had another thought.  From a defensive perspective, it would seem to indicate that the optimal mix of 3's and 2's would be approx 50%/50% since they yield just about the same EV?  Yet you apply them in a random fashion.  In other words, you wouldn't come down court, launch a 3, then next time shoot a jump shot, otherwise the defense would figure you out and adjust their defense accordingly.  Hence the need for the coach.  He determines the mix and play calling sequence.  The more random the better.  

db

dbrown

1.03 is correct.

swish

swish wrote:

gyso wrote:Swish,

Thanks for the comparison between us and the Warriors for 2 and 3 point shots.  Do you know how we compare to them in made frito percent and total fritos made?

With them being heavy bombers, it makes me wonder if they do not get to the line as much as their opponents, like us.

gyso

I hope that this is the info that your looking for.  The Celts are taking 37.3  3 point attempts per game and 19.8 free throws per game for a free throw percentage of  .531%.
  The Warriors are taking 32.1  3 point attempts per game and 22.5 free throw attempts per game for a free throw percentage of .701%.  Much better free throw to 3 point attempts ratio by Warriors.


  swish

Thanks Swish.

So the Warriors have taken about 5 less three point attempts per game.  They only take about 2 more fritos per game.

I was interested in the raw numbers more so than the ratio between the two types of shots.  The difference in three point attempts means that Brad really wants his players to take the open three.  

On the other hand, they only take 2 more fritos per game than us.  Assuming that we both make close to the same percentage, the difference in points scored at the charity stripe is less than 2 per game.  

For the Warriors, getting to the line may not be key to their success.  Their strength is in their great two point and three point shooting.  The season is young, so it is a small sample size.  Things may change over time.

It just seems like we always take far less fritos each game than the team we are playing.  We don't take all that many less than the best team in the league, so the actual importance in getting to the line may not be high on Brad's to do list.

gyso

We are still experimenting with a lot of things offensively, I’m not too concerned with record or analytics right now. It’s still early and we will ramp it up in a month or 2....