POST GAME INDY - AWAY

dboss wrote:Even GS does not attempt this many 3 point shots and your 45% on 3 the last two games is higher than what I saw.

Anyways the point I would like to make is that a more diverse offensive attack may serve the team well.  3 PA should not be half of all the shots that you take.  

dbrown4 wrote:IND is a very good team.  Are they beatable?  Absolutely.  Should we have won that game?  Absolutely.  We had them down by 16 and should have finished them off then.  But it's coming.  Patience.  We've waited 10 years for this.  A few more games of greasing the wheels and working the kinks out ain't gonna hurt anybody.    

I believe the first couple of minutes of the IND game was an experiment by Brad.  This was an away game against a very good team in the East.  Someone we are going to see several times during the season and in the playoffs depending upon the draw.  Since we went bananas shooting three vs. TOR the game before, Brad wanted to see if coming out of the gate bombing from downtown works.  I'm going to guess he had about a 10-shot leash on this idea and he said go Geico on IND and Fire at Will.  (Great ad, BTW!)  The first shots all caromed off the rim almost exactly the same way.  Now granted the NBA has rules and protocol for regulating the goals in each arena but there is a difference between the familiarity of home and the unfamiliar of being on the road.  It's a small subtle adjustment but it's a big one now.  Now the C's (made the adjustments during and after those first 8 shots and then they started falling in.  We started 0-8 and finished at 41%. ( BTW, does the NBA break down 3pt shooting by guarded vs. unguarded?  That may become a very interesting stat going forward the open season on 3's this year. I may backtrack a couple of games for a sample space and see what comes of it.)

Brad saw what he was looking for, though, in this experiment.  If teams aren't going to guard us on the 3 line, we are eventually going to kill you at home or on the road.  Our opponents will die by our open three.  Making opoen threes at home...piece of cake.  Making threes on the road in a hostile environment against the best in the league, more difficult but if you can shoot at a 41% clip and you are OPEN...fire away until the cows come home.

Let's give Oladepo some credit.  He made the game winning shot.  Irving missed a layup that would have won it.  We're not going 82-0 and 16-0.  Neither is anyone else.  What I believe Brad is forming now is the knockout punch early.  I would expect the Denver game tohavee the same start.  If they are hitting, the game is over in the first 5 minutes.  If you don't play defense, which is pretty much the whole WC, prepare for the awesome power of a fully operational Death Star because we will start hitting those open threes.  And if it's not open there is a Grand Canyon of space around the basket for some easy layups, open jumpers, etc. in the meantime. That's the next step for Brad...mastering the inside/outside game and the cadence that maximizes our conversion of points on the scoreboard.

It comes down to expected value.  The 2018 expected approx. value of a FT is 1 point x 75%= .75 points.  The EV of a normal basket is 2 points x 46% = .92 points.  The EV for 3 point shots for the league is 3 points x .356 = 1.068 points.  (Courtesy of www.basketball-reference.com).  The numbers for open 3's is probably more spectacular.  

What Brad probably asked the boys Saturday was can all of you collectively hit 40%+ for the three ball, if open.  They just went 43% vs. TOR on Thursday.  If you redo the math above, the Celtic EV for a three comes to close to 1.2 @ 40%.  In a game of inches, where they make 20 threes in a game, they've added 4 points to their final score, other things equal.  It is 25% more valuable to the Celtics to shoot the 3 ball.  That's hard if not impossible to ignore.  

Now, there are some negative risks EV doesn't measure.  Like when a missed three clanks off the back of the rim and leads to a fast break the other way, etc.  You get the picture, though.

Let's see what happens at the start of the DEN game this week.  I'll gladly eat crow if I'm mistaken.  In the end, Brad will have to adjust the offense each time down for flow and keeping the defense guessing.  But easy threes, layups, And 1's plus open jumpers by the Haywards and Morris' are the keys to the early knockout punch Brad is looking for.  GSW waits to the third quarter.  Celtics are trying to do it early and then just demoralize you for 3 more quarters.  Much more devastating.    

db                    

gyso wrote:Swish,

Thanks for the comparison between us and the Warriors for 2 and 3 point shots.  Do you know how we compare to them in made frito percent and total fritos made?

With them being heavy bombers, it makes me wonder if they do not get to the line as much as their opponents, like us.

gyso

dboss wrote:Swish

And what about FT

gyso wrote:I'd like to see less lazy threes.  That is when there is little ball movement or just outside passing prior to the shot.  They need to work it inside (touch the paint) and then pass it out for the shoot.  I think Tommy calls it inside - out, or something like that.

Inside - out can lead to more fouls on the other team and more fritos for the guys in green.  Getting the other team to react to their players being in foul trouble leads to better matchup for us.

Last night we started off by missing our first 5 or 6 shots, with most of them being lazy threes.  That is just about unwatchable, IMO.  It did get better, but I may have to create a stat count each game for lazy threes taken.

gyso

dbrown4 wrote:swish,

You are correct.  I omitted that.  Nice catch.  So EV(Basket) is 1.03, correct?  

I actually had another thought.  From a defensive perspective, it would seem to indicate that the optimal mix of 3's and 2's would be approx 50%/50% since they yield just about the same EV?  Yet you apply them in a random fashion.  In other words, you wouldn't come down court, launch a 3, then next time shoot a jump shot, otherwise the defense would figure you out and adjust their defense accordingly.  Hence the need for the coach.  He determines the mix and play calling sequence.  The more random the better.  

db

swish wrote:

gyso wrote:Swish,

Thanks for the comparison between us and the Warriors for 2 and 3 point shots.  Do you know how we compare to them in made frito percent and total fritos made?

With them being heavy bombers, it makes me wonder if they do not get to the line as much as their opponents, like us.

gyso

I hope that this is the info that your looking for.  The Celts are taking 37.3  3 point attempts per game and 19.8 free throws per game for a free throw percentage of  .531%.
  The Warriors are taking 32.1  3 point attempts per game and 22.5 free throw attempts per game for a free throw percentage of .701%.  Much better free throw to 3 point attempts ratio by Warriors.


  swish