End of Year Player Reviews

bobheckler wrote:Well, it's over.  Time for some critiquing (not quite the same as 'criticising') of our roster and an attempt to look forward to the off-season and next year.  One stat I will be referring to a lot, especially for starters and players that are solid rotation players, are Offensive Ratings, Defensive Ratings and Net Ratings.  These are the points scored by the team/100 possessions when the player is on the floor, the points given up by the team/100 possessions when he is on the floor and the difference (OffRtg - DefRtg) between them respectively).

These are, of course, just my opinions.  What are yours?


1.  Kyrie Irving

Kyrie is, by far, the most polarizing player on the roster.  That is, in part, because he is considered a superstar and so the expectations are super-high.  Another reason is that he is "a horse of a different color".  He doesn't have the massive ego of a LeBron or a Westbrook or a Harden or even a Butler.  He is, to put it mildly, an odd duck and as such doesn't fit nicely into the "team leader" box.  Number-wise he looks good.  His 23.8ppg is right there with his career average of 22.2ppg.  He has taken a lot of heat, especially on this board, for being a selfish player but his 6.9 assists/game is the highest of his career.  In fact, his next highest apg yearly average was 6.1apg and that was back when he was 21 years old and the only one touching the ball in Cleveland.  His Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) of 55.7%, which calculates fg% by giving extra credit for 3s, is the 2nd highest of his career.  His highest year was last year, the one shortened by injury, when it was 56.8%.  He shot 40.1% from 3.  His basic fg% was 48.7%.  A guard, shooting 48.7%, is pretty frippin' good.  By comparison Steph Curry's fg% was 47.2% and James Harden's was 44.2%.  His Net Rating is the 2nd best of his career, a +10.  His only better year, when he was a +12, was in his injury-shortened last year.  An under-reported stat is that Kyrie took 13 charges this season.  That's good enough for third on the Celtics behind Baynes and Smart and 19th in the NBA.  In other words, he has never had better numbers, overall, than he has had since he came to Boston and his numbers made him a 4X All-Star and All-NBA player before he even came to Boston.  

Kyrie wanted out of Cleveland to get out from under LeBron's shadow and "have his own team".  He is now seeing how hard, how much pressure it is, to be an NBA team leader.  Can he grow into it?  If yes, then great, but he needs to see clearly who he is and who he needs to become to be that.  Is he willing to make those changes?  I think not, not in dramatic "serious as a heart attack" type of way.  It might take years, into his 30s, before he finally "gets it".  Are we willing to wait for that?  No.  So, what then?  Well, he either has to be traded to a team where he can be the beta-dog he is or he needs an alpha-dog here.  Is Anthony Davis an alpha-dog?  He tried to be in NOP, and they went nowhere, but is that his fault or management's?  That franchise, between turning over GMs and owners has not been a picture of stability and experience.  If the problem with Kyrie is that he has superstar talent without the superstar leadership qualities, would getting The Brow fix that?  Would taking that load off of Kyrie improve our team chemistry?

You’re too kind Mr. Bob. I’ll have more later but know that Kyrie cannot be traded...by us. (to be continued sir)

2.  Al Horford  

Individual stats have never been an appropriate way of measuring Al Horford's impact on a team.  Our offense and defense are definitely more coherent when he is playing.  One way to assess his impact on the team's play is with his Net Rating.  He is a robust +15 (122 offense, 107 defense).  We averaged 102.1ppg last year, per 48 minutes.  Our Pace, possessions/game, was 100.83 per NBA.com.  So the Offensive, Defensive and Net Ratings quoted are very close to what we actually did per game (stats/100 possessions vs 100.83 actual possessions/game).  So, we averaged 122 points per game with Al playing all 48 minutes.  That tells me Al Horford is NOT our offense's problem regardless of how many points, rebounds etc /game he personally garnered.  

He is, also, going to be 33 years old next month.  Next year is the last year of his contract.  I truly doubt Danny would trade Horford as an expiring contract, unless it got him Davis, but it does bring up the point that his impact on the salary cap will likely be diminished after next year.

Al Horford, in my opinion, is NOT the problem.  Might he be in decline?  Personally, perhaps, but his Net Rating this past year is the highest of his career.  You have to be careful with stats but, after 82 games to average out runs and slumps, you are your stats the same way a team is its record and Horford's TEAM stats are good.  And it is always about the team, right?

Bottom Line:  In my opinion, Al Horford is not our problem, he will not be traded (unless it is for Davis) and, once again in my opinion, we are lucky to have him.  On a team that has been accused of being selfish he is a self-LESS team player who doesn't give a shit about how many touches, shots or personal stats he gets.


3.  Jayson Tatum

I've been accused of anti-Tatum bias.  There may be some truth to that, but he was also the #3 pick and would have been the #1 pick in the draft if Danny hadn't suckered Philly into doing the Fultz trade.  It is reasonable to expect a #1 pick to excel and in quick order.  Sam Bowie was the #2 pick in the 1984 draft, sandwiched between The Dream and MJ.  Whether he had a good career or not you expect more from a player picked #2 between those two players, don't you?  Well, that's how I feel about Jayson Tatum.  If I'm a little down on him is because I expect great things from him and when he doesn't deliver because he's not progressing at the rate I expect, I get frustrated.

His numbers are a tick or two higher than last year.  That's good, but not great.  He took 5.0 fgas/game last year and 5.9 fgas/game this year while playing about the same number of minutes/game.  5.9 fgas/game is not enough.  I don't blame Jayson for that but that has hampered his game.  He also takes too long to create his shot.  He does that rocking with the ball for too many seconds, taking the shot clock too far down.  This might just be a product of his youth, but he needs to improve upon this.  He needs to know where his man is before the ball hits his hands, he needs to see his defender's footwork before the ball hits his hands.  I have not been particularly happy with what, it appears, Kobe taught him in the last off-season, but I know one of the things Kobe talked about with him is footwork.  Jayson needs to be quicker in what he does and to do that he needs to read his defender faster so that he can commit and move faster himself.

Tatum's Net Rating for this year is 0.  107 on offense and 107 on defense.  Compared to a +8 last year, when his Offensive Rating was 111 and his Defensive Rating was 103.  Slippage on both ends.  Once again, some of that might not be Tatum's fault, our defense in general was not as good as last year's and so that will show up in his numbers too.

He did not have the same stellar playoffs that he had in his rookie year.

If Danny makes the Davis deal we have seen the last of Jayson Tatum in green since it is a virtual lead-pipe cinch they will insist he be included in any deal.


4.  Jaylen Brown

Jaylen hurt his hand early in the season and was relegated to the bench.  He averaged about 16% fewer minutes this year than last year but his /minute scoring improved slightly.  He shot the same fg% but about 50 points worse from 3.  His frito shooting is still excrement.  I have said before I just don't understand this.  If he can shoot a healthy percentage from 3 with a defender running at him why can't he shoot a healthy percentage from the line?  He can't calm his mind and because he can't calm his mind he can't calm his body.  Shooting fritos is a bit like golf in that it's a zen moment.  Just you, the ball and the rim and nothing else is happening or moving or challenging you.  Good golfers can still their minds and focus on the machinery of their swing.

Jaylen was a #3 pick, so it's reasonable to have high expectations for him as well.  Is he living up to them?  His Net Rating is -5 (104-109).  When you consider how many of his minutes this year were played against the other team's bench that's not so great.  I noticed he has a habit of following his man over screens instead of trying to beat them to the screen or going under it.  You have to do one or the other.

Jaylen Brown is likely to be with us next year.  I think the feeling around the league is that he is a very good role player, but does not have star potential.  Whether that is true or not will be seen but, from a trade perspective, that is what they will base any offer to Danny for Jaylen upon and I don't see Danny giving away Jaylen Brown.  He is not a locker room cancer and he is still on his rookie contract.  If Danny is looking to take on big contracts having quality low-cost players on the roster is a big plus.  Incoming rookies, such as Danny might draft this year, will be cheap but they will be rookies and we already have lots of youth.  We need veterans that will get the job done and Jaylen Brown fits that description.


5.  Aron Baynes

I think we all saw how important Baynes is when he was out with his injured paw.  Our defense looked like Swiss Cheese when he wasn't on the floor.  Not a big shot blocker but you cannot just drive to the rim with him there, you will bounce off him.  He took 18 charges, that's good for 9th in the NBA.  His Net Rating is a +10 (118 - 108).  He is, in my opinion, right there with Marcus Smart for being the heart of our defense.  Horford might be the brains, but those two guys are the Blood and Guts of it.

Baynes will be 33 in December, no spring chicken.  He has one more year on his contract.  Would he leave after that contract is over, when he will be going on 34?  I personally doubt it.  Who will give him a big enough contract raise to convince him to pull up roots with young kids at that age?  I see him in green next year and perhaps for several years after that.  His game is not premised upon athleticism.  He can't run that fast, he can't jump that high, but he's in the right place at the right time and he doesn't demand the ball or make many brain-dead, unforced errors.  He doesn't care if he starts or comes off the bench, not only emotionally but statistically.  He is a defense-first player.  He is, in short, Brad Stevens' type of guy.  I don't see him going anywhere nor do I think he should.


6.  Gordon Hayward

It was a long road back for Gordon this season.  He looked like he finally made the trip, peaking at the right time, until the playoffs.  Quite the disappointment.  Having said that I think it is clear the offense runs quite well when the ball is in his hands.  It also let's Kyrie play off the ball, which makes life easier for him.  It also takes the ball out of Rozier's hands, which makes life easier for me.  I'm not going to cite his Net Rating because of the comeback nature of his season.  Of course his numbers will be diluted by the first 3/4 of the season.  Or are they?  He was a +5, 114-109, so not too shabby.  When you consider how miserably he was playing the first few months of the season, however understandable and expected that might be, that's not too shabby.  It's at least gives room for hope.

Nevertheless, his numbers aren't good enough to justify his other number, his salary.  If Tatum and others are gone to NOP then we need Gordon Hayward.  If they do not, well then, we saw this year how our depth isn't necessarily a positive and he is ridiculously expensive depth.  Rumors are that Cleveland is interested.  I don't see who I would want on that team though.  Kevin Love is, I think, a shadow of his former self (and I hope Danny, who has long coveted him, sees that) and a shooter like Jordan Clarkson isn't enough, nor is Clarkson and Nance.

My prediction is that Gordon will be here next year unless moving his salary is an imperative to landing Davis.  He's a Swiss Army Knife type of player, who can play multiple positions and that's precisely the type of player that Brad loves.


7.  Marcus Smart

We all know the value of The Cobra (or, after coming back in 4 weeks in a 4-6 week rehab, should we be calling him "Wolverine"?).  He, and Horford and Baynes, are classic examples of how stats just don't show the real picture.  Nobody on this team more represents Celtic Pride than Mahcus Smaht.  

Smart's Ratings have been hurt his entire career by his inefficient, even historically poor, offense.  This year, however, there was a turn for the better.  His 113 Offensive Rating this year gave him a +6 Net Rating.  He shot a respectable, pretty close to league average, 36.4% from 3.  He also shot over 80% from the line for the first time in his career, over 50% eFG% and over 50% from 2.  In other words, he has become a much more efficient offensive player while still retaining his rabid do-whatever-it-takes defensive mentality.

He's not going anywhere UNLESS his $13M/year contract is what Danny needs to make the numbers work in the Davis trade.  I am not, under any scenario I can see, underestimating Danny's lust for Anthony Davis.  That, and that alone, puts Marcus Smart closer to being on the trading block than any other time in his career.  I'm hoping that does not happen.


8.  Terry Rozier


Buh-bye.  He has not stepped up, in my opinion.  He is not, and has never been, a good scorer.  He shot 38.7% this year.  His game is very ego-driven and ego-centric.  Kyrie has taken a lot of heat for perceived lack of leadership in the locker room this year but when your back up point guard is a little prima donna who thinks he's an NBA starter when he clearly is not, what is there Kyrie can do about that?

TRo is a RFA now.  Danny can match any offer he gets.  The rumor mill says he's worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $15M/year on his new contract.  Danny should work out a trade that gets Rozier his money and the starting job he is single-mindedly focused on.  I'll even take an expiring contract as long as it's well over his $4.3M qualifying offer.  In fact, I'll even take a trade that matches his $4.3M qualifying offer because his salary cap is over $9M and, if Terry accepts the qualifying offer he will be an UFA after next year and you know he's going to be hunting for a change of venue, one where he can achieve the lofty status to which he is unqualified to attain.


9.  Marcus Morris

A great, smoking-hot start to the season, when he was one of the best 3pt shooters in the league and we were all asking if Danny could afford to keep him, followed by a mind-numbing slump.  He pulled himself out of the slump, eventually, and righted his ship in time for the playoffs.  He ended up, btw, with a 37.5% 3pt fg%.  That's a solid number.  His Net Rating is a +1, so he's a good but not highly-valuable player.

I think Morris is sick of the locker room drama and wants out.  I think he has a junkyard dog mentality and sees this team as emotionally soft, which might not be too far off the truth, and that irks him.  Morris or no Morris that glimmering of a truth should bother all of us.

He was the only player that really showed up yesterday and for that reason alone we should be grateful for Marcus Morris.  He thinks he's a dog and fought like a dog yesterday.  As I said I think he's gone, of his own free will, but I wouldn't mind if he stuck around for the right price.  He's a veteran, he's pretty steady, his 109 Defensive Rating makes him no worse than anybody else.  Where are we going to find someone better for, say, $5M/year who will only be turning 30 in September?  Markieff?  When his bro fills his head with the dumpster fire stories from this year he won't come here neither.


10.  Daniel Theis

I like Theis!  He is fundamentally solid and doesn't make many dumb errors.  I am not sure, however, that he is right-sized to play center in the NBA and he isn't quick enough to play 4.  Would I be sorry if he left?  A little, but not heart-broken since that would give Williams some minutes.  Would I be happy if he signed a slightly more lucrative extension?  Yep.  He's a solid, albeit not overwhelming NBA role player.  His Net Rating is a staggering +21!!  Admittedly that's based upon 100 possessions and he wasn't in for SO many possessions for that stat to hit hard but still, at 13.8mpg, he is a real rotation player so the numbers have some weight.

I think Theis is gone.  He got his taste of the NBA, he feels he can play here but he isn't making as much money as he'd make in Europe and he isn't getting tons of minutes neither.  Danny can't afford to give him a big bump in salary.  A shame, really, but I think that's where this is going especially if the team is going to commit to the development of Williams.


11.  Semi Ojelaye

A role player who will probably never be more than that.  He has the foot speed to stay in front of players and the strength to hold his ground against bigger players.  He was used, a lot, against players like Giannis and Embiid, players who could go around, over or through most other players.

Semi's offense has been pretty one-dimensional, he shoots 3s.  He averaged 2.8 fgas/game this year and 1.6 of them were 3pt fgas.  What hurts about this is he only shot 31.5% on them.  His fg% on the 1.2fgas/game he took from 2, however, was 56.5%.  I have been saying all year that Semi needs to put the ball on the floor and attack the basket.  He's undersized, vertically, but he's immensely strong and built to take contact.  Brad has him sitting in the corner waiting for the ball.  I think Brad should have Semi coming off of curls and doing some rim-rocking.

Semi is under contract next year for $1.6M.  For that price, and for the specific role Brad has him playing, Danny cannot justify letting him go.  


12.  Guerschon Yabusele

One of two players that are tantalizing in their potential (the other being Williams).  He's wide as a house, weighs about as much, but has as quick feet as any big in the league.  I wish I knew whether the reason why he isn't getting more minutes is because of flaws not immediately obvious to us public viewers or simply because of the logjam for minutes.

Obviously, when a player only averages 6.1 mpg it's no big deal whether he comes or goes.  I just wish it was more clear which it should be.  Practically, he's probably staying unless NOP falls in love.  He's under contract for another year at $4.7M, which is a lot of money for a 6 mpg player, but then is a team option after next year.  He could easily be included in a Davis deal to fill out the $ and because he's effectively an expiring contract.  Either way, for $4.7M, I say use him or get rid of him.


13.  Brad Wanamaker

I like Wanamaker.  He's solid, professional and steady on both ends of the court.  It's hard to understand his impact using stats because of the limited minutes he played this year, but my eyeballs liked what they saw.  He shot 41% from 3.  Admittedly a very small sample size but I cannot remember Wanamaker taking a single bad shot this year.  He missed some, sure, but I cannot remember a single shot where I asked "WTF was he thinking?!".   His assist-to-turnover rate was a very, very acceptable 3.2:1.  Once again, very limited sample size but my eyeballs are telling me this stat is not a fluke.  He is very careful, even conservative, with the ball.  Definitely not a razzle-dazzle french pastry type of point guard.

Wanamaker can be kept with a qualifying offer of $1.6M.  For a solid player with no blatant weaknesses or flaws, that isn't gun-happy nor wild, that is a steal.  If Rozier is gone, as I expect him to be, my money says that Danny extends Brad Wanamaker's stay with the Celtics by giving him his qualifying offer and, because he is still largely unknown to the league, nobody will try to outbid Danny for him.  


14.  Robert Williams III

And now, finally, to The Time Lord.  His shot blocking instincts are absolutely off-the-hook, unteachable.  He averaged 1.3 blocks/game and he only played 8.8 mpg.  1.3 blocks/game is good enough to rank him 8th in the NBA, if he had enough to qualify.  However, I saw him making many poor decisions on defensive rotations and I know Brad saw them too because he pulled Williams out of the game shortly afterwards.  I don't know how much of that is poor BBIQ and how much is youth, we haven't seen enough to know.  

If he isn't gone in a trade for Davis I expect him to get a big bump up in minutes next year.  If he doesn't, and I'm right about Theis not coming back, we should see that as a sign of underlying weaknesses in his game that are keeping him off the floor.

Brad complained that players just wanted to throw lobs to Williams, and were disrupting the offense by overfocusing on that, but isn't that what Houston does with Capela?  Don't they use their penetrators, Harden and Paul, to drive and either finish or alley-oop?  Maybe our problem is that we don't have enough penetrators to draw the defense to them?  Brad preaches the need to "touch the paint" on every offensive possession.  Well, maybe we should do more than just touch it, maybe we need to control it by penetrating and forcing the defense to shift.   If you don't make the defense move you are going to struggle to score and we have seen that happen a lot this past year.  If we don't keep Wanamaker then maybe we should bring Shane Larkin back.  Or IT.  Or someone who wants to take it to the rim and has the ability to know where everybody is when they do it.


bob


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