Boston Celtics accomplished one big goal in preseason: eliminating mid-range shots

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2019/10/boston-celtics-accomplished-one-big-goal-in-preseason-eliminating-mid-range-shots.html



Boston Celtics accomplished one big goal in preseason: eliminating mid-range shots



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Boston Celtics' Jayson Tatum, left, drives past Charlotte Hornets' Miles Bridges (0) and Cody Zeller (40) during the first half of a preseason NBA basketball game in Boston, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2019. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)




By John Karalis | JKaralis@masslive.com



One of the fiercest battles in basketball is the one between analytics and open jumpers. Where once an open 18 foot jump shot was viewed as a good look, math now dictates there is room for improvement.

I, personally, chose this profession to get away from math. And while my high school calculus teacher approves of that, there is simply no denying one simple fact.

" 3’s are worth more than 2’s."

That’s from Jayson Tatum on media day talking about his new focus on changing his shot profile. Tatum was one of the worst offenders on the Boston Celtics when it came to pulling up from the mid-range. So he realized he needed to do something different.


“Focus on getting to the basket much more. Shoot more 3’s. 3’s and layups," he said. “And free throws. If you want to be a great scorer in this league, you have to get to the line. Free throws is super important. Getting to the basket and that opens up the rest of the game.”

The math checks out. Even if Tatum shoots 30 percent from 3, that’s nine points per game from beyond the arc. He’d have to shoot 50 percent from mid-range to beat that, which he doesn’t. In fact, according the NBA.com statistics, Tatum shot 36.6 percent on mid-range shots last season. He shot 37.3 percent from 3.

So armed with that knowledge, Tatum specifically (only five of his 39 preseason shots came from the mid-range) and the Boston Celtics as a whole, concentrated on changing their shot profile.

The change is pretty drastic.

Last season, 18.56 percent of Boston’s offense consisted of mid-range shots. This preseason, that number dropped to 8.69 percent.

Shots in the restricted area jumped from 28.68 percent last regular season to 40.86 percent this preseason. There was also an uptick in 3-pointers, from 37.99 percent of the shots taken to 40.58 percent.


Obviously the sample size is much smaller. We’re comparing a percentage of 7,423 field goal attempts from last regular season to 345 field goal attempts in the preseason, so 82 games worth of data could smooth out some of those big jumps. Still, the results are pretty clear. Boston is eliminating the most inefficient shot in basketball.

Part of that shift can also be attributed the makeup of the team. Kyrie Irving and Al Horford both took (and made) a lot of mid-range shots. They made up 22.7 percent of Irving’s shot attempts. He also shot 49.6 percent from that range last season, which makes him one of the few NBA players who can live in that area. Kemba Walker will shoot some mid-range shots too, but they made up 16.1 percent of his shot attempts last season.

Horford took 23.5 percent of his shots from the mid-range (making 54.7 percent, which is very good). Boston’s bigs aren’t going to be shooting from that area much this season. Daniel Theis is either going to roll hard to the rim or pop to the 3-point line. Enes Kanter might take some but he won’t get nearly as many attempts as Horford and Kanter mostly operates in the post.


To be fair, there is a time and a place for mid-range shots. Taking them about nine percent of the time is fine, especially if players get to step into an in-rhythm shot with no pressure on them. Depending on the time on the shot clock and the game situation, those shots can help serve as boxing body-shots that help soften up a defense.

But as we saw with the Milwaukee Bucks series last year, some defenses will live with that shot if they’re taking away all the other efficient ones. They’ll sag and protect the rim at all costs while running players off the 3-point line. They’ll dare teams to hit half those mid-range shots knowing it probably won’t happen.

It’s easy to be lulled into the false sense of security of the open jumper. That’s why working to get a better shot early in the shot clock is imperative. It’s why the Celtics are focused on changing their shot profile to minimize their reliance on that shot.

“Pace in offensive execution needs to improve quite a bit if we want to be better and generating rim opportunities overall," Brad Stevens said earlier in the preseason. "I’m excited about that. But we have to keep it going, so we’ll see. Defenses are designed to takeaway layups, not foul you, and take away 3’s, so everything you want they’re trying to take away.”



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