Can Celts content without a top 5 player?? Interesting...

https://www.celticsblog.com/2020/2/15/21135035/talent-constraints-contention-boston-celtics-kemba-walker-jayson-tatum-jaylen-brown-gordon-hayward

Don't buy it, at least not as it is presented by this "writer". First he properly cites highly reliable stats based on large numbers of observations showing JT and Kemba are pretty efficient, but then relies on Twitter clips of individual plays as if they contain as much meaningful info as the synergy stats. Sophisticated cherry picking...

Before Curry and Klay Thompson won a title, they were saying the same thing about them, no first team all NBA player to carry them, etc

The writer has a flawed way of evaluating the Celtics.  He completely neglects any mention of our defense which remains one of the best in the league.

He believes having 2 elite players on the team or in the case of the Bucks one player, puts Boston at a disadvantage.  I completely disagree with his assessment.   Give me 4 guys each of whom can scored anywhere between 20-30 points a game over having an elite guy or 2 elite guys.

Boston has beaten the Bucks, Raptors, Sixers and Heat in the East plus the Lakers, Clippers, and Denver in the West.  There are elite and/or allstars on all of those teams.  We have lost to Houston in the West and Indy in the East but also beat every other playoff contender in the East and 6 out of 7 out West.

This idiot takes two games to try to prove his point yet wins this year against quality opponents proves otherwise.  He lectures us about Houston, a team that scores 118 per game but has a net rating of only 3.7.  That is because they give up 114 on the other end.  Whatever problems the Celtics had offensively had nothing to do with Houston.  

He mentions us being 3rd in net rating but does not seem to understand that our defense is part of the rating.

I'm not a big fan of the hypothesis that you need a dominant big man or that you need a top 5 player. A dominant big is a post player & we know from analytics that post play is a low percentage contested shot. The "top 5 player" gets you open 3s or layups. They're the obvious place to run your offense through. If your team has multiple capable options of creating offense, you still have different ways to get those high percentage shots. A well coached team with players who get the ball to the option who is making plays, takes advantage of match ups can be successful as well. They could be even more successful as they can avoid double teams and pick on certain match ups.

KyleCleric wrote:I'm not a big fan of the hypothesis that you need a dominant big man or that you need a top 5 player. A dominant big is a post player & we know from analytics that post play is a low percentage contested shot. The "top 5 player" gets you open 3s or layups. They're the obvious place to run your offense through. If your team has multiple capable options of creating offense, you still have different ways to get those high percentage shots. A well coached team with players who get the ball to the option who is making plays, takes advantage of match ups can be successful as well. They could be even more successful as they can avoid double teams and pick on certain match ups.

Kyle

Offensively Boston has enough guys who can run the offense.  

We do not have a dominant low post player but we have managed to hold our own.  Boston is a very unique team.  Brad uses multiple players at 5 and once he is able to get a healthy RW back in the mix the Celtics will have more than enough variations to play against anybody.

This long season is down to 28 remaining regular season games.  The team has met every challenge and handled adversity like a contender should.  This team enjoys playing together and they have a competitive nature about them.  They want to win.  They respect their opponents but they do not look up to any of them.

The Celtics will go as far as their defense takes them.

Easy answer to me. Of course they can contend without a top 5 player.

Just a couple things to patch up.

Add a true center who can defend the paint and protect the rim. If they're a low-post scoring threat,that's a big plus. A center who can stretch the D out beyond the arc is not needed by this club. The center doesn't need to be an All-Star.

The second and final piece, a scorer off the bench. Someone who can shoot and drive. They don't need to be an All-Star either. A second veteran presence off the bench would make it a lock. A little too young and inexperienced right now.

That's it. Title contention. Two, possibly three players away. No top 5 in the gym. Yet.

The true center that can defend and protect the rim will be joining us after the all star break, he’s obviously young, but as anyone who has seen RW play, knows he has those attributes/talents to be the missing piece for us in the middle. Now just stay healthy and be the best version of yourself. As for the scorer off the bench, I wouldn’t mind starting that bundle of intensity Marcus Smart, he’s already started a bunch of games and can play so many roles well. Start Smart, now you can bring GH off the bench as instant offense vs second units, plus he brings dead eye passing and leadership....so we might already have all the pieces. Let’s see if BS listens to me lol.

cowens/oldschool wrote:The true center that can defend and protect the rim will be joining us after the all star break, he’s obviously young, but as anyone who has seen RW play, knows he has those attributes/talents to be the missing piece for us in the middle. Now just stay healthy and be the best version of yourself. As for the scorer off the bench, I wouldn’t mind starting that bundle of intensity Marcus Smart, he’s already started a bunch of games and can play so many roles well. Start Smart, now you can bring GH off the bench as instant offense vs second units, plus he brings dead eye passing and leadership....so we might already have all the pieces. Let’s see if BS listens to me lol.

IF Williams can stay healthy, I agree he could possibly still be the guy.

Pre-season, I had boldly predicted he would be the starter by now. He screwed up my prediction by getting hurt.

I was a slightly underwhelmed by what he did show, but that could have been due to the early 3-way center split. I hope he gets in there and lives up to what I expected him to be by now.

I'd also like to see at least another gun off the bench in addition to either Smart or Hayward. I think that's needed.

In all, this team is looking good enough, with enough young talent, that a tweak or two could be the beginning of a long, seriously competitive run.

so the writer is saying you have to have a top FIVE NBA player to win a title?

do I get the idea?

so we have
Giannis
LeBron
Kawhi

all top 5 players right?

whos next?

Harden
Curry (when healhy)
A. Davis (hey that's two on the Lakers, might as well hand them the title now then)

what about Doncic?
Embiid?

so I have what eight players listed now?

but only the top FIVE have a shot at a title , well except we know the only thing Curry and warriors are winning is maybe the top pick in the draft this year. SO that makes the whole story a joke, right?


what about Harden and the midgets? does anyone think they have any more chance to win a title with a bunch of munchkins playing come playoff time (not to mention soon to be fired Di'Antoni who has never won ANYTHING as a HC).

I mean jeesssh!

The Celtics can win but our top guys will need to have great playoff series. Lay no eggs and our bench will need to exceed expectations.

Brad will need to coach better defensively in terms of taking something away from guys like Giannis.

This is an amateur writing site. This guy is more concerned with using big words than making a logical argument

jrleftfoot wrote:This is an amateur writing site. This guy is more concerned with using big words than making a logical argument

+1

What makes it worse is that he selectively switches between established stats with well understood limits and his own personal observations of individual plays. Not sure if you have ever seen the great mockumentary Spinal Tap, but there is a brilliant and relevant line:

It's a fine line between stupid and clever

Seems to fit here...

Do we know what what the playoff teams rosters will look like during the playoffs ?

swish

swish wrote:Do we know what what the playoff teams rosters will look like during the playoffs ?

 swish

Hi Swish. Nice to"see" you.


bob


.

swish wrote:Do we know what what the playoff teams rosters will look like during the playoffs ?

 swish

Swish,

I'll echo Bob's 'nice to see you.'

We've been wondering where you've been!

gyso and Pete have been trying to locate you.

Don't you know you can't be away without checking in with us first?

Regards

Bob, Pete, gyso, NYCelt

I still keep up to date on all board chatter - but find that my fanatical interest of the Celtics of the past 70 years  has diminished considerably over the last few months. Could it be that Father Time is catching up with me ? Soon to be 88 and I guess that the engine is beginning to run a little rough.

 swish

swish wrote:Bob, Pete, gyso, NYCelt

I still keep up to date on all board chatter - but find that my fanatical interest of the Celtics of the past 70 years  has diminished considerably over the last few months. Could it be that Father Time is catching up with me ? Soon to be 88 and I guess that the engine is beginning to run a little rough.

 swish

Swish,

Sad to hear it but glad that you are still keeping an eye on us. Lord know that we need it from time to time.

gyso

swish wrote:Bob, Pete, gyso, NYCelt

I still keep up to date on all board chatter - but find that my fanatical interest of the Celtics of the past 70 years  has diminished considerably over the last few months. Could it be that Father Time is catching up with me ? Soon to be 88 and I guess that the engine is beginning to run a little rough.

 swish

Maybe you just need to rest up for the stretch run and the playoffs.

Load management for fans. If the players can do it, why not you too?

swish, we don't really know each other, but your posts are one of the things that drew me to this board--- stop by once in a while and liven things up

NYCelt wrote:

swish wrote:Bob, Pete, gyso, NYCelt

I still keep up to date on all board chatter - but find that my fanatical interest of the Celtics of the past 70 years  has diminished considerably over the last few months. Could it be that Father Time is catching up with me ? Soon to be 88 and I guess that the engine is beginning to run a little rough.

 swish

Maybe you just need to rest up for the stretch run and the playoffs.

Load management for fans. If the players can do it, why not you too?

Lol, I agree we need swish for the playoffs

Swish - always loved your posts. Hopefully we will still get to hear your perspective....

swish wrote:Bob, Pete, gyso, NYCelt

I still keep up to date on all board chatter - but find that my fanatical interest of the Celtics of the past 70 years  has diminished considerably over the last few months. Could it be that Father Time is catching up with me ? Soon to be 88 and I guess that the engine is beginning to run a little rough.

 swish

Hey Swish 

I hope things will be okay.  

Take it easy.

Swish,

I hope you get to feeling better


KJ

Swish,

I hope you get to feeling better


KJ