DO THE CELTICS HAVE A BENCH PROBLEM?

http://www.celticshub.com/2020/03/02/celtics-bench-problem/



DO THE CELTICS HAVE A BENCH PROBLEM?



By Cameron Tabatabaie
On March 2, 2020







The Celtics bench unit is far from the most formidable. Boston’s reserves scored 11 points in a recent loss to the Lakers; in a losing overtime effort against the Rockets, the bench produced just four points.

Having a bench that can defensively hold its own is critical. And indeed, Boston’s reserves have one of the best net ratings in the NBA. But on any given night, Boston’s starters are asked to shoulder quite the scoring load.

The lack of offensive pop coming from the bench isn’t a fatal flaw, but a worrying issue for sure. One major injury could thrust this problem into the spotlight.

Save the occasional outburst from Enes Kanter or Brad Wanamaker, what Celtics head coach Brad Stevens can get from his reserves is limited at best. The team stood pat at the deadline, and, it seems likely that Boston will head into the postseason with one of the least offensively productive benches in the NBA.


How bad is it?

The Celtics have a few extraordinary defenders and plug-and-play guys coming off the pine. This is a huge advantage when trying to guard the likes of a Giannis Antetokounmpo or LeBron James by committee.

Unfortunately, however, bench scoring is in short supply in Boston. The Celtics reserves score just 27.4 points per contest, the second worst mark in the Association. (For context, the Clippers bench unit is turning in 51.3 points a night.)

The Celtics bench rarely gets to the free throw line. The group shoots the three-ball at one of the lowest clips in the league. The assist and rebound numbers are uninspiring.


NBA Math

@NBA_Math
Through games on Feb. 25, here's how all members of the Boston Celtics have fared in TPA during the 2019-20 #NBA season. #Celtics



8:35 AM - Feb 26, 2020


Save Marcus Smart, the most offensively productive player on the Celtics bench is Enes Kanter. He’s scoring a pedestrian 8.6 points per game. Brad Wanamaker is next on the list at 6.6 points a night. The C’s offense is quite top-heavy.

Marcus Smart’s status as a reserve player is complicated. Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward, and Daniel Theis have just one game coming off the bench combined. And yet Smart has started in 62 percent of Celtics games this season.

As such, Smart’s 12.9 points per game may actually be inflating the numbers for Boston’s bench. After the pugnacious sixth man, the scoring prowess for Brad Stevens’ reserves is limited.


The art of staggering

Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown, and Gordon Hayward have all missed at least nine games this season. Rarely has Brad Stevens had his starting line-up fully intact. Kemba Walker’s absences are particularly difficult; Boston doesn’t have too many ball-handling playmakers.

Assuming full health, Boston’s bench woes may disappear in the postseason. Marcus Smart is averaging a career-best 4.9 assists per game, and his improved three-point shooting appears sustainable. He’s hitting 35.5 percent of his threes on 6.7 attempts per game. Smart could serve as the offensive anchor the bench needs.

At the same time, Smart could find himself in the starting line-up depending on who the C’s draw in the playoffs. If Brad Stevens trusts the chemistry in his locker room, he could consider bringing either Gordon Hayward or Jaylen Brown off the bench. Hayward in particular is a sneaky good playmaker.

Realistically, though, Stevens’ rotations will be more impactful than any starting line-up. There’s enough scoring punch on this Celtics squad that – when healthy – Boston should be able to keep two or three dynamic offensive players on the floor while ensuring adequate rest throughout the game.




Other solutions

Neither Enes Kanter nor Brad Wanamaker excel on defense. In fact, they are at times full-blown liabilities for the C’s on this front. And yet there is still some hope here.

Wanamaker is among the best free throw shooters in the league. He can be effective from deep, and his assist numbers are encouraging. There may be nights down the stretch or even in the postseason where Wanamaker provides some needed pop in the back court.

Kanter, meanwhile, has the second highest PER of any Celtics player. His efficiency and touch around the rim haven’t slipped despite a big reduction in minutes, nor has his rebounding. If the offense stagnates, giving Kanter a few touches down low could change the offensive feng shui.

There are a few free agents the Celtics could potentially add if the front office begins to panic on this front. To say nothing of their defense, Isaiah Thomas and Jamal Crawford headline a long list of professional players who, in theory, could come in and give Boston’s bench a bit more bite on the offensive end.

Boston has options for maintaining an offensive rhythm thanks to its supremely talented starting unit. With full health and clever rotations, the above worries are minimized. As Kemba Walker continues to nurse an ailing knee, though, nothing can be taken for granted.


bob
MY NOTE:  If our bench has one of the best net ratings in the league, then what's the problem?  Would it be nice is they scored more?  Absolutely, but if they are defending well then that's a unit that is doing what that unit was constructed to do.  Kanter didn't play vs Houston.  There's one reason why our bench didn't score much.  If you want to question why Brad didn't play Kanter vs a team with no center that's a legit question, I believe the obvious answer is that he wanted to match up and was afraid that PJ Tucker would just flat outrun Kanter down court every time, but using the Houston game as an example of our bench's offensive woes is misleading.  In fact, by giving Kanter a Coaches - DNP that took 8.6 ppg bench points off the table.  And I don't agree with the conclusion that Wanny is not a good defender.  I think he is.  Speaking of net ratings his is a +5 (113 offensive, 108 defensive).  That's not bad, especially given he's playing with other bench players a lot and so you should expect the offense and defense when he is on the floor to suffer a bit precisely because they are benchers, but are they bad numbers?  The team, overall, is averaging 113.4 ppg, 8th in the league.  That's damn close to Wanny's personal 113, so whatever fall off in offense from the bench isn't his fault.  On defense the team's defensive rating is 105.9, good for 4th in the league, so Wanny's 108 is a little off.  For comparison, Hayward's defensive rating is 108, Kemba's is 109, Jaylen's is 107 and Marcus Smart's is 107.  Smart is First Team All-Defense and Wanny's defensive rating is only 1 point worse.

If Carsen Edwards didn't turn into a green pumpkin after the pre-season was over we wouldn't even be having this conversation.  But we can't just dump it all on Carsen.  This team was built by Danny to have three prolific, dynamic scorers on the starting team.  Due to the offensive growth of Jaylen Brown over this past summer we have four prolific, dynamic scorers and those scorers need to be given big minutes.  Our top 6 players, in terms of minutes/game (Tatum, Brown, Hayward, Kemba, Smart, Theis), consume 189.9mpg.  A regulation game has 240, and we're averaging 241.7 (Overtimes add to the 240).  78.6% of all minutes are allocated by Brad to 6 players.  As long as they stay healthy, fresh and productive the bench's production becomes less important than, say, the Lakers'.  Their top 6 (LeBron, Davis, KCP, Green, Kuzma, Bradley) only consume 168 mpg.  The productiveness of their bench is more important to them than ours is to us (and their bench is productive).  Could they win if LeBron goes down?  I think that's unlikely, he is SUCH a critical cog in their wheel, but we've shown we can win without Kemba, without Smart, without Theis, without Jaylen.  

There's still time for Carsen to regain his confidence.  There's still time for Romeo to find his niche in our offense.  Now that Grant is hitting his shots we might see him add another point or two onto his game, or another assist or two which translates into points for someone.  So, to put this in perspective a bit, if Grant (or Romeo or Kanter or Carsen or Wanny) gives us just one more point/game we'd be averaging 114.4 ppg from now on.  We have the 8th best offense now, with that extra point we'd .1 ppg behind LAL for 7th.  That's how far off we are from the best team in the WC and our 3rd ranked defense (we have the 4th best defensive rating, but we give up the 3rd least points at 106.6 ppg.  The difference is due to possessions.  Offensive and Defensive Ratings are based upon /100 possessions per game.  The difference between our 3rd fewest 106.6 and the #1 defense in the league Toronto Raptors is .2 ppg.  We give up 106.6 ppg and they give up 106.4.  

Sorry for all the stats, but I wanted, and needed for my own sake, to wrap my mind around just how big a deal our bench makes.  My conclusion is "sure, I'd love more points, but we're in good shape now too and we have some room for growth on offense, so relax".


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I disagree with this statement by the writer

"Neither Enes Kanter nor Brad Wanamaker excel on defense. In fact, they are at times full-blown liabilities for the C’s on this front. "


Wanamaker has a defensive rating of 103.7 and Kanter is at 103  I would say that is pretty damn good.  It is an individual metric that calculates how many points those players give up per 100 team possessions.


Wanna and Kanter are actually pretty damn good if you look at the big picture.  


The overall strength of our bench is their defense.  


If we can stay healthy our offense will be fine.

I am not naive enough to think that any of our rookies are going to give us much on the offensive side of the ball.   I expect to see an 8-9 man rotation during the playoffs.  Some spot minutes will be handed out but I have not seen much production from any of our rookies that warrants them getting meaningful playoff minutes.

Bobh,
Thanks for the article.
I agree with you - Wanamaker is a good defender. Of course he's a defensive liability defending the likes of Lebron, Giannis, etc., very few players in the league aren't.
As for the "Bench problem", the current Celtics team is constructed for playoffs (IMO) where you use 8, rarely 9, players. For that we're mostly covered: Smart, Kanter, Wanny and combination of GWill and Semi.
The only thing I'd add is a spark-plug shooter. Carsen, unfortunately, is not it.

AK

sinus007 wrote:Bobh,
Thanks for the article.
I agree with you - Wanamaker is a good defender. Of course he's a defensive liability defending the likes of Lebron, Giannis, etc., very few players in the league aren't.
As for the "Bench problem", the current Celtics team is constructed for playoffs (IMO) where you use 8, rarely 9, players. For that we're mostly covered: Smart, Kanter, Wanny and combination of GWill and Semi.
The only thing I'd add is a spark-plug shooter. Carsen, unfortunately, is not it.

AK

Sinus007

There you go buddy.

Since this is it, our team for the rest of the season, it may be a wise decision to relegate Hayward to be the 6th man coming off the bench to give some energy to that unit. OR Marcus. There are times when I feel he should be the bench guy. There is no question, everybody better be healthy for the stretch run and the playoffs. This is an 8 - 9 man rotation at the most. Only a blowout will bring the rookies in

As far as this article goes, I like to use the NFL example. Mike Ditka and Joe Gibbs were both NFL coaches that won the Super Bowl. Two totally different ways to coach and two totally different ways to parlay that into a Super Bowl win.

Two ways to skin a cat. With a great scoring bench, with a not so great scoring bench. I'm sure the NBA has seen both win a championship.

db

Do we have a bench problem?  No.  We have a bench.  Our bench has been shifting like the sand with all the injuries.
Big deal

When lockdown defense is needed in the playoffs, we're going to shine no matter who's on the floor.    

db

They sure have, just look back in the history of the Celtics Some of the teams that won were not huge scorers. Russells's last year he had Sam Jones in his last year, an aging (by basketball terms) KC Jones, Havlicek in hitting his stride and Larry Seigfried who scored in spurts.. This team came in fourth place and shocked everyone and won the title. And there are other teams in the past that were successful with offensively challenged teams. I believe this team is far from that, especially with a starting line up that is so good. We just have to stop analyzing and enjoy

Our bench is fair, but not deep, mostly due to inexperience. One or two more scoring threats are needed. A big plus; defense off the bench looks to be improving.

I think its more of a work in progress, rather than a problem, since there are promising signs. Safe bet it will be improved next season.

We're getting there.

Not to put this issue/problem all on one player, but if Semi could even get 7 points per game there would be no one complaining about points from the bench group.

This guy plays more than enough minutes to score at least 7 per game, but does nothing to come even close. He hides in the corner, does not attack in transition, still does not drive to the hoop and has shown zero offensive moves.

Yes, he plays excellent defense, but this is now his third year on the team and is stiil pretty much a zero offensive contributor.

RosalieTCeltics wrote:Since this is it, our team for the rest of the season, it may be a wise decision to relegate Hayward to be the 6th man coming off the bench to give some energy to that unit. OR  Marcus.  There are times when I feel he should be the bench guy.  There is no question, everybody better be healthy for the stretch run and the playoffs. This is an 8 - 9 man rotation at the most.  Only a blowout will bring the rookies in

I don't think it's ever a negative to be the sixth man on a good Celtic team. I've always felt Hayward would have been GREAT in that roll this year, for this team. His ability to run the offense and take over scoring when needed fits the bill. Talk about the tradition of Havlicek?

Hayward's minutes would not be any less, nor would his being in at the end of games. Best thing is that would mean we can stop hearing about how the Celtics have bench problem!!

ah well...what the hell do I know.

Wasn't Kevin McHale the 6th man for a few seasons?! He turned out ok!

db

I never thought of that position as a negative, heck, John Havlicek, my all time fav Celtic, was a great 6th man. I used to love watching Frank Ramsey come in off the bench, he was terrific. Bill Walton came off the bench, without him, no title in '86. So, if Hayward would accept this role, great. I still think Marcus might be the one who should come off the bench. As Red would say, it is not who starts the game, it's who is in there at the finish and you know Marcus would be there.

I like the starting unit as is.  We do not have a bench problem.  We have a stay healthy problem.  

With a shortened rotation, rotation minutes will go down.  

The only unknown for me is how Brad uses his 3 centers.  And if he choses to match up with other teams or make them match up with us.

https://nesn.com/2020/03/danny-ainge-explains-why-he-thinks-celtics-bench-will-soon-see-a-boost/



Danny Ainge Explains Why He Thinks Celtics’ Bench Will See Boost Soon



by Sean T. McGuire

on Mon, Mar 2, 2020 at 8:02PM



Danny Ainge recently voiced his reasoning behind the Boston Celtics not exploring the buyout market. It would have helped their bench, right? Well, the Celtics’ president of basketball operations seems to think Boston’s bench will be receiving a boost soon enough.

As Ainge depicted, that boost will follow Kemba Walker and Robert Williams returning to health, which ultimately “moves everybody back to their more common roles,” he said, per The Boston Globe’s Adam Himmelsbach.

“The question is, do you have enough scoring? And I think we’re the fourth- or fifth-rated scoring team in the NBA last I checked, and we haven’t had our team together,” Ainge said. “So when people start classifying bench scoring, no, team scoring is all that really matters. And we haven’t been able to start our five best players much all season because of injuries, so our bench has been weakened, so I’m confident that we have enough.”

Walker is officially probable to return Tuesday night when the Celtics host the Brooklyn Nets at TD Garden.


bob


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Judging from the Nets game, YES!

cowens/oldschool wrote:Even worse we have an injury problem and there is no guarantee we will be fully healthy by playoff time....

thats spot on....can we even field a team tonight?

Tacko, Waters, who else will have to play?

that was a couple of years ago, after all that stuff with IT and new players were brought in. Then the new training facility opened. Don't blame the trainers. It is the way the game has evolved, players are doing things to their bodies that they never did before. Leaping, jumping, dunking, ankle sprains, knees blown out, feet issues. Worcester, am I right in my thinking??????

Rosalie, considering the magnificent job the trainers did with Gordon, they are probably aok. However, I do cringe when I see the trainers on the sideline stretching hamstrings and groins- like last night with Jaylen and Kemba - and holding the stretches for 30-60-90 seconds and longher. That is SO unwise and counterproductive. Stretches should be active, isolate and fro 2-3 seconds, then repeated and repeated and repeated for 2-3 seconds each time. I am 100% sure of this. My trainer has trained over 20 Olympic Gold medal winning track stars. American record holders. FAMOUS people, and he uses the active isolated stretching. Other stretching methods of extended duration provoke a contraction reflex.

https://www.google.com/search?q=active+isolated+stretching+aaron+mattes+method&rlz=1C1DIMC_enUS890US890&oq=Aaron+Mattes+active+isolated+str&aqs=chrome.3.69i57j0l5.19166j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

On a lighter note, twenty years or so ago he was a trainer for the Knicks, and he worked on Charley Ward and Patrick Ewing a lot. Ewing amazed him. Tommy Heinsohn said that Aron Baynes was all of Australia. Well, Patrick was all of Jamaica then!