Factors to consider when examining Gordon Hayward's future with Celtics

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Factors to consider when examining Gordon Hayward's future with Celtics




By Chris Forsberg

June 17, 2020 11:22 AM




Even before the coronavirus threw a wrench in the 2020-21 salary cap, it seemed likely that Gordon Hayward would opt into the final season of the four-year, $128 million contract he signed with the Celtics in 2017.

Hayward is set to earn a hefty $34.2 million next season, currently projected as the 15th highest salary in the league and second largest on the Celtics behind only Kemba Walker at $34.4 million.


The immediate question, of course, is why would Hayward even desire to walk away from such an eye-popping salary? There’s a few potential motivations:

1) With 10 years of NBA service, Hayward could have commanded a starting salary up to 35 percent of the salary cap. Back when the cap was expected to rise to $115 million, Hayward could have sought a max deal with a first-year salary north of $40 million (and valued at roughly $173 million over four seasons).

2) Having endured a catastrophic ankle injury that has defined his Celtics tenure, Hayward could have opted out in hopes of seeking long-term security. Hayward is positioned to command one more big-money deal and played at a high level early in the 2019-20 season. Given his age (30) and at least minor health concerns, he could seek security in case of another injury or downturn in play.

3) The situation Hayward finds himself in now is very different from when he arrived in Boston. When Hayward first signed, he was positioned to be a focal point of a team looking to get over the hump and had complementary pieces like point guard Isaiah Thomas and big man Al Horford around him. Then the Celtics traded for Kyrie Irving and Hayward injured his ankle five minutes into his first game in green. In the aftermath, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown emerged as the young core and created a talent glut on the wing.

Even in a vacuum, none of these three reasons might be enough for Hayward to seriously consider opting out.

He can still command a hefty salary in the summer of 2021 if he stays healthy and plays to a high level. Hayward has dug deep roots in the Boston area, too, and isn’t the type that craves the spotlight. His unselfish nature has meshed well alongside Boston’s young wings.

But there are other complicating factors to an opt out this year, including the fact that teams that projected to have cap space are not exactly the best fits.

Would the rebuilding Hawks or Grizzlies want to use available money on a 30-year-old Hayward? Would Hayward even view any of those situations as better than what he has in Boston? A team like Miami, another of Hayward’s primary suitors in 2017, might be a bit more intriguing, but the Heat likely desire to save any space for a grander pursuit in the summer of 2021.

The free agent crop of 2020 is positioned to be underwhelming at best and Hayward would be a top available name. Alas, the lack of intriguing suitors might make it better for Hayward to simply be part of that more glitzy 2021 class.

The coronavirus pandemic might have made Hayward’s decision even easier. While no one knows exactly how this year’s revenue losses will impact the salary cap, reports suggest that the cap could actually drop next year. That means Hayward’s potential starting salary would dip, all while teams have even less money to spend this offseason.


Before the season paused, Celtics brass were uncertain what Hayward would do at year’s end but believed it was likely he would opt in. The pandemic has only seemingly increased the likelihood of another season in green.

For the Celtics, a lowered cap and luxury tax line next year would add some stress to carrying Hayward at such a bulky number. The tax line had projected at $139 million in January but might be closer to this year’s threshold of $132.6 million, or lower if the cap drops.

The Celtics currently have $95 million in guaranteed salary on the books for the 2020-21 season. Jaylen Brown’s extension is set to kick in (originally projected at $23.9 million before the cap woes) and Jayson Tatum could ink a rookie extension this summer that would trigger a year later.

If both Hayward and Enes Kanter opt in — and including Boston’s nonguaranteed salaries — the Celtics project at up to $144.4 million in salary commitments, and that’s before free agency and draft additions. Boston has managed to stay out of the tax but could have to cut bulky checks to the league if their payroll is that high next season.

Celtics ownership will be content to pay if the team can truly compete for a title. More difficult decisions loom if Boston isn’t one of the elite next season. And the Celtics might have to decide if Hayward is part of their long-term core at some point very soon.

There is one instance where an opt-out might make sense but it would still likely require Hayward to stomach a hefty paycheck hit. If long-term security is something Hayward truly craves, he could opt out and re-sign with Boston at a less gaudy cap number. This might help Boston avoid, or at least ease, a potential tax burden next season and beyond.

But Hayward can also bank on himself.

He can collect that hefty $34.2 million and hope that a strong performance — both for him and the Celtics — will help create a high market value in the summer of 2021, where those teams stiff-armed in the pursuit of the biggest fish might be content to splurge on him. The Celtics might still be willing to extend at a more reasonable number at that point, too.

All of which only increases the likelihood that Hayward opts in this offseason.



bob


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In another thread I said GH likely opts in.  The Celtics are in a tough situation.

1. How can the cap NOT drop this year given the overwhelming loss of NBA's revenue from Covid-19?

2. No way GH is offered $34.2M anywhere else for next year.

worcester wrote:1. How can the cap NOT drop this year given the overwhelming loss of NBA's revenue from Covid-19?

2. No way GH is offered $34.2M anywhere else for next year.

Worcester

Pretty much my thoughts as well.  This will give Danny more time to decide where they go down the road.  However with the NBA determined to start the season and extend the playoffs into October it changes the time frames for Free Agency (Oct 18).  GH basically has $34.2 million waiting.  That is a lot of cabbage.  

The next action for Boston would normally be during the February trading period but who knows if the normal dates for that will be maintained. I think that the NBA should waive provisions that impact the salary cap and luxury tax threshold.  Teams find themselves in a unique situation.  Players will be hurt because of a compressed schedule and a tighter market.  Teams that want to retain key players may be handcuffed by the current formulas for determining what they can spend.

How about an emergency amendment to the CBA that adds a Covid 19 Salary Exception that allows a $30 million/per yr exception for any team to be used to sign one or two players.  I would like to see an exception that is excluded from the Salary Cap and Luxury Tax thresholds  Maybe they could make it invisible for any 2 year deal and then count it at a rate of 50% in year 3 and 100% in year 4.  

In this scenario Boston could resign GH, if he opts out, to a 4 year up to $30 million deal and not have his salary impact the team for 2 years.  I would hope that the NBA recovers in two years and revenues increase but in the meantime the Covid exception could be used as a bridge to help them get there.

I share your hopes.

I guess this issue will be clearer if they really do play the rest of the season as planned. I do wonder if he would be more willing to go for length and opt out and renegotiate. It depends on him and how comfortable he is here. I just recently read an article about him where the writer said that Hayward was extremely happy playing with JT and JB . It has to be strange for him, though because one of the reasons he came here was to play with IT and Horford, and both are gone. It has been a strange ride for him. When he came here, Kyrie claimed that he had tried to get Gordon to sign with him in Cleveland, yet it hardly seemed like they had any on court or off court relationship. Actually, while he was hurt, Baynes and Theis were the guys he seemed to socialize with the most, (probably because they had family)

Unless Indiana comes up with a way to try to lure him there or Danny finds a way to trade him there, my guess, with his family growing, that he will stay here. No one has mentioned his relationship with Brad. That was a big reason why he came here. Interesting off season, no doubt and it will happen fast.

RosalieTCeltics wrote:I guess this issue will be clearer if they really do play the rest of the season as planned.   I do wonder if he would be more willing to go for length and opt out and renegotiate. It depends on him and how comfortable he is here.  I just recently read an article about him where the writer said that Hayward was extremely happy playing with JT and JB . It has to be strange for him, though because one of the reasons he came here was to play with IT and Horford, and both are gone.  It has been a strange ride for him.  When he came here, Kyrie claimed that he had tried to get Gordon to sign with him in Cleveland, yet it hardly seemed like they had any on court or off court relationship. Actually, while he was hurt, Baynes and Theis were the guys he seemed to socialize with the most, (probably because they had family)  

Unless Indiana comes up with a way to try to lure him there or Danny finds a way to trade him there, my guess, with his family growing, that he will stay here.  No one has mentioned his relationship with Brad.  That was a big reason why he came here.  Interesting off season, no doubt and it will happen fast.

GH is a perfect fit for this team. He came to Boston to get reunited with coach Stevens. Rosalie if my memory serves me correct Boston signed him before the KI trade. GH is still young enough to be a key piece to our next title. I just do not see how the money can work out unless ownership is ready to pay the tax and become a repeat offender. Much will be revealed if they restart the season in terms of the Celtics being a legit contender. GH could be the difference maker.

Well, Wyc says he is willing to pay the price to win another title.  He has that taste still in his mouth from 2008. I am referring to the press conference with KI.  Remember IT went out of his way to try to help the Celtics sign Gordon, and Hayward was very disappointed that he did not get the chance to play with him. I only mention KI (I can’t even say his name!!!) is because he made it seem like they were buddies.

Judging from Haywards reaction from being yelled at on the court by him, I do not think there was a lot of love there.

I think Hayward is a cog in this wheel we have going here. He is a vital part of the offense, Danny has said that and Brad relies on him a lot.
My wish is that he gets the chance to end his career here and then move back home as he has sometimes insinuated might he and his wife want. That was the only reason I mentioned Indiana is because that is home.  I hope I am able to watch him here for the duration.

Rosalie with revenues down it is unclear of Celtics ownership will be willing to dip their toes in the luxury tax pool.

If the Celtics get into the championship round that would be an incentive.

There is one instance where an opt-out might make sense but it would still likely require Hayward to stomach a hefty paycheck hit. If long-term security is something Hayward truly craves, he could opt out and re-sign with Boston at a less gaudy cap number. This might help Boston avoid, or at least ease, a potential tax burden next season and beyond.


that seems to be the best case for both team and player, IMO.

Hayward is the third best player on the team at best now and if he wants to stay his pay should be more in that range.

4 years with an average salary in the $20-25M range(similar to Browns new deal seems about right to me.

probably NOT going to happen, but who knows.

with all this pandemic stuff going, when IS the free agency going to come into play??? October? That seems a stretch.

Rosalie FA is scheduled to begin on October 18th. The world is upside down.

GH should opt in unless he is concerned with his longterm health. He did experience some issues with his foot this season. Anyways I figure we have him during the restart and he becomes a FA next year. Still plenty of time for Danny to make a decision.

JT new deal would not kick in until the 2021-22 season.

I like Gordon and hope he stays. That said, he is , at best, the third best player on the team, I think the 4th , maybe 5th. I think Smart is more crucial , and I have a higher opinion of Kemba's importance than some others. Bottom line: I hope he re-signs, but at a more reasonable salary.

I love Smart and what he brings, but I definitely feel GH is the third best player on this team for what he does all over the floor, not just scoring

I wish this stuff was all over. The coverage of the Celtics is unreal. More rumored trades than I have fingers and toes. Smart to GSW, GH, everywhere, JB, GH for ??? Rudy Gobert? UGH. Every time I turn on the computer in the morning there is a trade for one of our core plays. Sure GSW would love Smart, Green is starting to wear Kerr down. It just is a pipe dream I hope

RosalieTCeltics wrote:I love Smart and what he brings, but I definitely feel GH is the third best player on this team for what he does all over the floor, not just scoring  

I wish this stuff was all over. The coverage of the Celtics is unreal. More rumored trades than I have fingers and toes.  Smart to GSW, GH, everywhere, JB, GH for ??? Rudy Gobert? UGH.  Every time I turn on the computer in the morning there is a trade for one of our core plays.  Sure GSW would love Smart, Green is starting to wear Kerr down. It just is a pipe dream I hope

             I agree that the trade rumors are annoying. Most come from posts by non-journalists.I still think Smart is more important than Gordon, because of his unique intensity, but I respect your opinion and want to keep them both. There is, in my opinion, no way on earth he opts out.

Question....would you?

RosalieTCeltics wrote:Question....would you?

Nope

Of course not