Celtics vs Raptors - The Matchups

The 2nd round of the Playoffs between the Celtics and Raptors will kick off on Thursday, August, 27th  at 6:30 PM.  Both teams managed to sweep their opponents in 4.  The Celtics however had the much tougher opponent.

These teams are strikingly similar from a pure statistical vantage point.  Boston holds a slightly better point differential of 6.4 to 6.3 during the regular season.

While these stats reflect what happened during the regular season including the infamous bubble restart games, availability weighs into the equation moving forward.  Gordon Hayward will not be with us during the 2nd round.    When this series begins Gordon will not be there.  He left the bubble on Friday.  Similar to solving a geometric problem, no Gordon Hayward is 'A Given'

On the other bench, Kyle Lowery sustained what looked like a high ankle sprain.  His status is up in the air.  Kyle has been a great player for this team.  He has many of the same leadership qualities as Marcus Smart.
 
The Matchups

These have little to do with what coach Stevens envisions. These are purely from a fan's view.   Consider that Lowery will be back in a week to 10 days but for the sake of these matchups let's just assume he plays.  Individual matchups are very important as I tend to just look at one guy vs another.  Maybe I should looks at the matchups from a positional perspective.

Guards

Marcus has joined Kemba in our backcourt.  The Raptors backcourt is solid but undersized at the 2.  I look for Marcus to check Van Fleet.  Vanvleet has been their top assist guy through 4 playoff games.  Kemba vs Lowery will be a great matchup.  However both the Celtics and Raptors pride themselves on switching so these assignments are going to get flip flopped all series.  Both Wanamaker and Langford could prove to be difference makers off the bench.

The Raptors have another slightly undersized 2 guard coming off the bench in Norman Powell.  He has played very well for them including a 29 point showing in closeout game 4.  I think Brad Wanamaker has the size, strengths and defensive abilities to compete with Powell although Powell's 17.5 PPG in the playoffs clearly gives him the edge.
 
The Raptors do not have a BU PG off the bench.  If you recall, VanFleet used to be that guy.  The lack of PG depth has not really been an issue for the Raptors.  Their Spurs like offense generates a lot of shots because they collectively move the ball quite well.
Little discussed Terrence Davis their 6'4"  SG off the bench has played well in 4 games but I think the level of competition has simply not been challenging.  The Nets were a bad team playing with a short deck.

The guard matchups cannot be discussed without mentioning Jaylen Brown who is the best among all of them.  In 4 contests this year Jaylen lit them up  for 23 PPG while shooting 55% from the field including a blistering 50% from deep.  They simply do not have a viable matchup for Jaylen at the big guard spot.
 
Summation:  Advantage Celtics

Wings

The Celtics have 2 of the best two-way wings in the NBA.  Toronto has just one in Siakum who is playing mostly PF.  His numbers vs the Nets were not top notch.  The advantage also goes to the Celtics based on positional flexibility.  Jaylen Brown plays 2-4 and I can see where Brad may match him up with Siakum at times to neutralize his quickness.
 
Off the benches we have, Semi and Grant and Langford all of whom are primarily defensive players.  Brad will not hesitate to use multiple options against Siakum including Tatum and Semi a quick on the ball defender.

Off the bench they have Anunoby who is a good defender and developing score.  Their two 10 MPG SF's are Stanley Johnson and Hollis-Jefferson.
 
We have 2 star wings and they have 1.

Summation: Advantage Celtics

Bigs

Gasol and Ibaka are their centers with Serge playing a lot of 4/5 sets.  
Brad uses primarily Theis and Kanter.  He also likes to try Grant at the 5 in certain small ball matchups.  I think the x-factor will be Robert Williams.  During Brad's post game comment yesterday he mentioned RW and he still has confidence in him.  He said that matchup situations may not always favor using Williams but that Williams had impactful minutes for us.

I can envision some minutes for Robert against Serge Ibaka.
 
Summation: Advantage Raptors but easier compared to the Sixers

Other Factors.
 
Coaching, Injuries and Mental fatigue.

Coaching

Nurse in just his first year as an NBA head coach won the NBA title.  Forget about the reality that it was acquired against a depleted GSW teams.  The most impressive accomplishment may very well be their series win against the Bucks in 6 games.  But what's missing from that run now  is KL.  The Bucks went 3-1 against them this season as did the Celtics.  Nurse is a very smart coach particularly with his defensive schemes and his team plays excellent offense because they show discipline and patients moving the ball.  They win even though KL departed.  That is because of great coaching.

Brad Stevens has managed to take his team into the playoffs 6 years in a row.  He can match any coach out there in mapping out the X's and O's.  His attention to detail is second to none.  The most interesting comment from one of his current players that was surprising involved a comparison between coach K and Stevens.  Tatum said coach k was a leader and Brad was an x's and O guy.  If you did not see the interview with Tatum that I posted I suggest you go watch it.  Tatum talks about the Duke players running through a brick wall for coach k.  No such passion expressed about Brad.  Tatum did state that he is blessed to have played for both of them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5Jcb5-tB90

My take on his statement is something I have believed all along.  Brad Stevens is far too tolerant when it comes to his players stepping out of the box at the wrong time.  I love our team but they take too many bad shoots because the discipline and consequence for not playing the right way is still lacking.  We need more accountability.  

Advantage Nurse by a Thumbnail

Injuries

With a healthy Gordon Hayward the Celtics would easily outgun the Raptors but he will not be there.  If lowery is available for game one he may not be 100%.  It's hard to say but as things stand we have the biggest injury issue.

Advantage Raptors

Mental toughness

If you cannot win on the road, you cannot win in the bubble environment.  The Sixers had the best home record this year at 31-4 but that record did not help them much because they were also 14-26 on the road.  The reason is simple.  They were mental midgets.  Nothing more than front runners that lack the internal fortitude to win anywhere.

This is not the case with either the Celtics or Raptors.  They can win anywhere and everywhere.

So this is a real tough call

Advantage Celtics (Marcus Smart)

We beat them 3-1 this year including a drubbing inside the bubble.  Their post game reaction to sweeping the Sixers was notably subdued.  The stench of getting booted out of the playoffs last year still lingers in the air.  The Raptors are a prideful bunch and are well motivated to defend their title.  

This should be a fun series.  Lets go Celtics (4-2)

Dboss,
Thanks for the detailed post.
I think Celtics have more advantage in the "Mental" category than you give them credit for. Celtics routing Raptors in the Bubble game added quite a few points in that category.
I say Celtics in 7. But I'd gladly accept your prediction.

AK

sinus007 wrote:Dboss,
Thanks for the detailed post.
I think Celtics have more advantage in the "Mental" category than you give them credit for. Celtics routing Raptors in the Bubble game added quite a few points in that category.
I say Celtics in 7. But I'd gladly accept your prediction.

AK

Hey Sinus007

The Celtics will need the mental advantage with no Gordon Hayward and I think they showed that against philly.

The Celtics do have a history of competing even when key guys are missing.

The Raptors killed the Nets. Resistance was futile. Winning against a tougher opponent builds character.

The bubble blowout against them puts more stock in the mental edge component. In that game, Semi, Wanamaker and RWIII played very well. GH had a very below average game. A 7 game series with us winning is more than acceptable.

Toronto's first round players per minutes played

Siakam- 33.5 Min/G
VanVleet- 33.3
Anunoby-32.5
Lowry- 29.8 (injury?)
Powell- 24.0
Ibaka- 23.5
Gasol- 20.0
Davis- 17.7
Matt Thomas- 10.8
Hollis-Jefferson- 10.0

may not see much of Thomas against us, IMO. that gives them a 9 player rotation.

Siakam is a 6-9 PF/SF similar to Tatum is size

VanVleet is a 6-1 scorer who seems better suited as a spark plug off the bench on an elite team.

Anunoby is a 6-7 wing, similar in size to Brown.

We all know Lowry

Powell is a 6-4 wing

Ibaka a legit 6-10 big

Gasol a 7-0 slow /old big

Davis a 6-4 rookie wing surprise

Hollis -Jefferson is a 6-7 VET wing

I think it's important we get G1 right out of the gate. Lowry/No Lowry, OG/No OG doesn't matter. It would be nice to have another crushing defeat of TOR to really let the sting of doubt and resignation enter into their minds, but sans OG, probably not going to happen. All these games will be nail biters.

It's really going to come down to who blinks first. Our guys don't panic in tight situations and that's a clear reflection of the coach. But if we get behind and start launching 3's to close the gap, beware. TOR is probably riding a little higher on the hog from the first round than we are. Knocking them down a peg or two to Realityville and finding themselves down 0-2 wouldn't hurt at all.

Since Brad is going with situation substitutions, that somewhat takes the edge off of our bench needing to score. But we are still going to need them to score respectably. I'd hate to see us match up and win every category but bench scoring and that be the only difference and we're on the next bus out of Orlando in a couple of weeks.

The team should be pissed Brad only got one 2nd place vote. And while they shouldn't make it a centerpiece mantra for beating the absolute crap out of TOR, it would be nice for us and Brad to advance and Nick still holding his what would be empty COY trophy.

Hate to put this out there but the elephant in the room is another injury. Will that shoe drop? Let's hope not. Kemba has been looking very sharp in the groove. Deadly is more accurate. No opposing game plan for him. PHI sure didn't have one. Well, they did. "Leave him open. He can't his that $hit!.
Let him go up against Embiid." That will kill you. Don't expect TOR to be that stupid or generous.

db

I hope they play and find another way to air grievances over the Blake shooting rather than boycotting.

The extra 3 days to start round 2 on Sunday may favor the Raptors as it related to Lowery having more time to heal from his ankle sprain.

This does not change my opinion about the Celtics winning this series. I agree with dbrown in that a G1 win would be great.

Yes Lowry may benefit. But this may also help Gordon return in time for important playoff games. What is Gordon's expected date for recovering from his ankle injury? His wife's delivery date?

dboss wrote:The 2nd round of the Playoffs between the Celtics and Raptors will kick off on Thursday, August, 27th  at 6:30 PM.  Both teams managed to sweep their opponents in 4.  The Celtics however had the much tougher opponent.

These teams are strikingly similar from a pure statistical vantage point.  Boston holds a slightly better point differential of 6.4 to 6.3 during the regular season.

While these stats reflect what happened during the regular season including the infamous bubble restart games, availability weighs into the equation moving forward.  Gordon Hayward will not be with us during the 2nd round.    When this series begins Gordon will not be there.  He left the bubble on Friday.  Similar to solving a geometric problem, no Gordon Hayward is 'A Given'

On the other bench, Kyle Lowery sustained what looked like a high ankle sprain.  His status is up in the air.  Kyle has been a great player for this team.  He has many of the same leadership qualities as Marcus Smart.
 
The Matchups

These have little to do with what coach Stevens envisions. These are purely from a fan's view.   Consider that Lowery will be back in a week to 10 days but for the sake of these matchups let's just assume he plays.  Individual matchups are very important as I tend to just look at one guy vs another.  Maybe I should looks at the matchups from a positional perspective.

Guards

Marcus has joined Kemba in our backcourt.  The Raptors backcourt is solid but undersized at the 2.  I look for Marcus to check Van Fleet.  Vanvleet has been their top assist guy through 4 playoff games.  Kemba vs Lowery will be a great matchup.  However both the Celtics and Raptors pride themselves on switching so these assignments are going to get flip flopped all series.  Both Wanamaker and Langford could prove to be difference makers off the bench.

The Raptors have another slightly undersized 2 guard coming off the bench in Norman Powell.  He has played very well for them including a 29 point showing in closeout game 4.  I think Brad Wanamaker has the size, strengths and defensive abilities to compete with Powell although Powell's 17.5 PPG in the playoffs clearly gives him the edge.
 
The Raptors do not have a BU PG off the bench.  If you recall, VanFleet used to be that guy.  The lack of PG depth has not really been an issue for the Raptors.  Their Spurs like offense generates a lot of shots because they collectively move the ball quite well.
Little discussed Terrence Davis their 6'4"  SG off the bench has played well in 4 games but I think the level of competition has simply not been challenging.  The Nets were a bad team playing with a short deck.

The guard matchups cannot be discussed without mentioning Jaylen Brown who is the best among all of them.  In 4 contests this year Jaylen lit them up  for 23 PPG while shooting 55% from the field including a blistering 50% from deep.  They simply do not have a viable matchup for Jaylen at the big guard spot.
 
Summation:  Advantage Celtics

Wings

The Celtics have 2 of the best two-way wings in the NBA.  Toronto has just one in Siakum who is playing mostly PF.  His numbers vs the Nets were not top notch.  The advantage also goes to the Celtics based on positional flexibility.  Jaylen Brown plays 2-4 and I can see where Brad may match him up with Siakum at times to neutralize his quickness.
 
Off the benches we have, Semi and Grant and Langford all of whom are primarily defensive players.  Brad will not hesitate to use multiple options against Siakum including Tatum and Semi a quick on the ball defender.

Off the bench they have Anunoby who is a good defender and developing score.  Their two 10 MPG SF's are Stanley Johnson and Hollis-Jefferson.
 
We have 2 star wings and they have 1.

Summation: Advantage Celtics

Bigs

Gasol and Ibaka are their centers with Serge playing a lot of 4/5 sets.  
Brad uses primarily Theis and Kanter.  He also likes to try Grant at the 5 in certain small ball matchups.  I think the x-factor will be Robert Williams.  During Brad's post game comment yesterday he mentioned RW and he still has confidence in him.  He said that matchup situations may not always favor using Williams but that Williams had impactful minutes for us.

I can envision some minutes for Robert against Serge Ibaka.
 
Summation: Advantage Raptors but easier compared to the Sixers

Other Factors.
 
Coaching, Injuries and Mental fatigue.

Coaching

Nurse in just his first year as an NBA head coach won the NBA title.  Forget about the reality that it was acquired against a depleted GSW teams.  The most impressive accomplishment may very well be their series win against the Bucks in 6 games.  But what's missing from that run now  is KL.  The Bucks went 3-1 against them this season as did the Celtics.  Nurse is a very smart coach particularly with his defensive schemes and his team plays excellent offense because they show discipline and patients moving the ball.  They win even though KL departed.  That is because of great coaching.

Brad Stevens has managed to take his team into the playoffs 6 years in a row.  He can match any coach out there in mapping out the X's and O's.  His attention to detail is second to none.  The most interesting comment from one of his current players that was surprising involved a comparison between coach K and Stevens.  Tatum said coach k was a leader and Brad was an x's and O guy.  If you did not see the interview with Tatum that I posted I suggest you go watch it.  Tatum talks about the Duke players running through a brick wall for coach k.  No such passion expressed about Brad.  Tatum did state that he is blessed to have played for both of them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5Jcb5-tB90

My take on his statement is something I have believed all along.  Brad Stevens is far too tolerant when it comes to his players stepping out of the box at the wrong time.  I love our team but they take too many bad shoots because the discipline and consequence for not playing the right way is still lacking.  We need more accountability.  

Advantage Nurse by a Thumbnail

Injuries

With a healthy Gordon Hayward the Celtics would easily outgun the Raptors but he will not be there.  If lowery is available for game one he may not be 100%.  It's hard to say but as things stand we have the biggest injury issue.

Advantage Raptors

Mental toughness

If you cannot win on the road, you cannot win in the bubble environment.  The Sixers had the best home record this year at 31-4 but that record did not help them much because they were also 14-26 on the road.  The reason is simple.  They were mental midgets.  Nothing more than front runners that lack the internal fortitude to win anywhere.

This is not the case with either the Celtics or Raptors.  They can win anywhere and everywhere.

So this is a real tough call

Advantage Celtics (Marcus Smart)

We beat them 3-1 this year including a drubbing inside the bubble.  Their post game reaction to sweeping the Sixers was notably subdued.  The stench of getting booted out of the playoffs last year still lingers in the air.  The Raptors are a prideful bunch and are well motivated to defend their title.  

This should be a fun series.  Lets go Celtics (4-2)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Excellent synopsis. The only thing I would add is that I felt we got into Siakim's head last game and frustrated him. I hope that happens again. With everything that is going on, focus and determination are more vital than ever.