Why NBA Analyst Believes Payton Pritchard Will Exceed Expectations As Celtics Rookie

https://nesn.com/2020/12/why-nba-analyst-believes-payton-pritchard-will-exceed-expectations-as-celtics-rookie/



Why NBA Analyst Believes Payton Pritchard Will Exceed Expectations As Celtics Rookie


Pritchard impressed in his preseason debut


by Adam London

52 minutes ago



The Celtics’ first selection in the 2020 NBA Draft addressed a clear need. No. 14 overall pick Aaron Nesmith has the chance to be a knock-down, off-the-bench shooter the C’s have lacked in recent seasons.

Boston’s next pick, however, wasn’t exactly a no-brainer.

The Celtics selected Payton Pritchard, a senior out of Oregon, at No. 26. Boston seemingly had greater needs than at point guard, and there are concerns about Pritchard’s athleticism and whether his game will translate to the professional level.

ESPN’s Mike Schmitz has high hopes for Pritchard in his rookie season, though. The NBA analyst included the 22-year-old among his six rookies who he believes will outplay their draft slot.

“While the Celtics have no shortage of ball handlers, I think Pritchard will work his way onto the floor because of his shooting, ability to play on or off the ball and defensive toughness,” Schmitz wrote. “Jeff Teague is the clear backup point guard behind Kemba Walker, but Pritchard gives Boston a different element as a shot-maker, and he fits in multiple-guard lineups. His no fear mentality makes him playable right away for the Celtics, and he reminds me a bit of Fred VanVleet.”

Pritchard is on the right track in proving Schmitz correct. He was one of the leading bright spots in the Celtics’ preseason opener, scoring 16 points and looking solid on both ends of the floor despite being fast-tracked into game action.

With Walker expected to be sidelined for the first few weeks of the season, Pritchard likely will have extended opportunities to prove his worth early in Year 1.


Bob


.

I also thought that Pritchard had a very nice first exhibition game the other night.

The author thinks that this kid will perform better than his draft position, but he does not mention what should be expected from a 26th pick. So, without setting some standards for the 26th pick it is difficult to be able to compare whatever Pritchard does this season.

If averaging 12 minutes per game with maybe 7 PPG or 2.5 APG or shoot 45% overall or have only one TPG equals out to out performing his draft spot Pritchard may or may not outperform his draft spot.

As a Cs fan forever, I certainly hope that this kid can continue to play like he did on Tuesday, but the Cs have not had such a high level of performance from any picks above #10 in quite some time. Even #3 picks (Tatum and Brown) or #6 pick (Smart) did not go beyond what Pritchard did in his first game for their entire first seasons. Many others of the team's picks in the 20s were all close to washouts at best.

Go Pritchard!!

I tend to frown on late Danny Ainge draft picks.  He reaches a bit too much for my liking.  But this time he did not miss and while Pritchard may have generated a few WTF moments, the reality of what he brings to the Celtics has begun to melt away the doubts.

Repost from my initial reaction

"Danny knocked it out of the park by drafting Nesmith and followed that up with our future starting PG, Pritchard."

Down the road in a year or 2 when Kemba Walker is no longer with us, Pritchard will be more than ready to step into the starting PG position.  Danny needs to find a way to get rid of Waters and Edwards.  I like those kids but they cannot help us as PG's.  There is not much there to develop.

wideclyde wrote:I also thought that Pritchard had a very nice first exhibition game the other night.

The author thinks that this kid will perform better than his draft position, but he does not mention what should be expected from a 26th pick.  So, without setting some standards for the 26th pick it is difficult to be able to compare whatever Pritchard does this season.

If averaging 12 minutes per game with maybe 7 PPG or 2.5 APG or shoot 45% overall or have only one TPG equals out to out performing his draft spot Pritchard may or may not outperform his draft spot.

As a Cs fan forever, I certainly hope that this kid can continue to play like he did on Tuesday, but the Cs have not had such a high level of performance from any picks above #10 in quite some time. Even #3 picks (Tatum and Brown) or #6 pick (Smart) did not go beyond what Pritchard did in his first game for their entire first seasons.  Many others of the team's picks in the 20s were all close to washouts at best.

Go Pritchard!!

wideclyde,

ESPN's Mike Schmidt included the 22-year-old among his six rookies who he believes will outplay their draft slot, not the author.  But that's just a nit pick by me that has little to do with the gist of your post.  I also hope that Payton Pritchard can earn the trust of Coach Brad Stevens and play some quality minutes off the bench this season and in future seasons to come.

I agree that the Celtics haven't had much recent success picking that late in the first round of the NBA draft. However, we have had some success picking there in the past.  Bob Heckler wrote a nice bit about our history in the draft, along with the reasonable expectations in their draft order:

Bob Heckler wrote:Top 23-30 picks (the remainder of the first round).  The likelihood is that they will be "deep bench", about 40-60%.  They also have a 15-30% chance of being busts.  Pretty much anything better than a bust is acceptable.  The best idea is to trade out of those positions and not pick at all.

Anti Zizic (23) - Deep bench to Bust.  Let's just call him a bust.
Delonte West (24) - Solid back up player who started in 258 out of 432 games played.  This is a win.
Tony Allen (25) - Solid role player, NBA starter.  The Grind Master.  This is a big win.
Payton Pritchard (26) - Too soon to call.
Kendrick Perkins (27) - Starter on a Championship team.  Another BIG win.
Jajuan Johnson (27) - Bust.  But was Big 10 POY and Big 10 DPOY, so there was something there, it just never panned out.  
Robert Williams (27) - Role player or deep bench?  We'll know this year.  Either way he's not a bust and that makes him at least a decent pick at #27.
RJ Hunter (28) - Bust.  He was part of the Doc-to-LAC trade, so another freebie by Danny, but he never worked out.
JR Giddens (30) - Bust.  Drafting #30 has to be the absolute worst place to pick.  The dregs of the first round but without the contract flexibility you get with a 2nd rounder #31 pick.

Three winners (West, Allen and Perk), one ok (The Time Lord), one "too soon to call" and four busts.  If we give RWill the benefit of the doubt and exclude this year's rook that means four good picks, three of which were excellent picks, and 4 busts.  50/50 is pretty damn good this far down in the draft.

If Pritchard can perform as well as Perk, Tony Allen or Delonte West did, I would call his pick a success.

https://samcelt.forumotion.net/t17734-danny-gets-draft-grade-of-45-from-me-overall-since-2003#282756

dboss wrote:I tend to frown on late Danny Ainge draft picks.  He reaches a bit too much for my liking.  But this time he did not miss and while Pritchard may have generated a few WTF moments, the reality of what he brings to the Celtics has begun to melt away the doubts.

Repost from my initial reaction

"Danny knocked it out of the park by drafting Nesmith and followed that up with our future starting PG, Pritchard."

Down the road in a year or 2 when Kemba Walker is no longer with us, Pritchard will be more than ready to step into the starting PG position.  Danny needs to find a way to get rid of Waters and Edwards.  I like those kids but they cannot help us as PG's.  There is not much there to develop.

Back in 2020 I was high on PP when he got drafted.  It took him a while to be significant but he is clearly a top rotation guy.

He clearly is a valuable energetic rotation guy and could start for alot of teams, he fits in with this teams identity and culture like a glove. His added improvement is a big reason we are off to a great start, even without 2 key rotation guys.

I was going to post this in the 'Boston Celtics News" thread but, since Cowens resurrected this one, I'll put it here.


Payton Pritchard league standings, through 4 games, 25mpg:

#5 3pt fg% - 4.8/game.

1.  Ant Edwards - 5.5/game, 39.3mpg
2.  Jordan Poole - 5.3/game, 29.7mpg
3.  Buddy Hield - 5.0/game, 22.8mpg
4.  Lomelo Ball - 5.0/game, 34.3mpg



Cameron Tabatabaie @CTabatabaie
2 days ago
Payton Pritchard over the last 3 games: 19.7 points per game 6 3PM per game 60.1% from the field, 62% from deep


I can't remember where I saw this but someone pointed out that Pritch da god leads the NBA in bench 3pt fgm (as you can see above, the 4 players ahead of him are all starters) and in total points off the bench.  He has scored 65 points in 4 games for an average of 16.3ppg.


And, lastly, there's Payton's place in Celtic lore.  He is currently #8, ALL-TIME, for points off the Celtics' bench.

1.  Kevin McHale - 7602 points
2.  Dan Barros - 2263 points
3.  Kelly Olynyk - 2204 points
4.  Eric Williams - 2069 points
5.  Xavier McDaniel - 2025 points
6.  Marcus Smart - 1996 points
7.  Dee Brown - 1987 points
8.  Payton Pritchard - 1847 points

IF Payton's average drops down to 10ppg (I don't think it will, but IF) and he only plays 70 games (he played in all 82 last year) then he will end this season as the #2 all-time Celtic bench player.  Not bad for an undersized player who was a #26 pick.  He's unlikely to ever catch McHale but Kevin is a HOFer and unstoppable scorer.  He also never averaged < 20mpg in his entire career including the years he came off the bench behind Max.  



Bob


.

bobheckler wrote:

And, lastly, there's Payton's place in Celtic lore.  He is currently #8, ALL-TIME, for points off the Celtics' bench.

1.  Kevin McHale - 7602 points
2.  Dan Barros - 2263 points
3.  Kelly Olynyk - 2204 points
4.  Eric Williams - 2069 points
5.  Xavier McDaniel - 2025 points
6.  Marcus Smart - 1996 points
7.  Dee Brown - 1987 points
8.  Payton Pritchard - 1847 points

Bob
.

Look at this; Pritchard is quickly catching up to Olynyk in Celtic bench points.

Cow, he's catching up to your favorite Celtic big!