Five bold predictions for the 2020-21 Boston Celtics

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MY NOTE:  What are your bold predictions for this season?


Five bold predictions for the 2020-21 Boston Celtics


The Boston Celtics tip off their 2020-21 season on Wednesday night and, based on preseason returns, it might be a bold declaration to simply suggest this team will make the playoffs.

And while a brief two-game exhibition slate put a floodlight on some of Boston’s concerns, especially with early health woes, we suspect the outlook will get a bit rosier as the Celtics lean heavier on their core in the regular season.

But there are most definitely going to be some bumps in the road early on. That’s not a very spicy prediction. But here’s five forecasts that are a bit more audacious:


1. Jayson Tatum will finish in Top 5 in MVP voting


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With Kemba Walker sidelined to start the year, Jayson Tatum is the obvious focal point of the Celtics’ offense and he’s going to have to put a heftier load on those bulked-up shoulders.

Consider this: While Walker was sidelined early in calendar year 2020 and Tatum made his leap, Tatum averaged 32.9 points per 40 minutes for the month of February. He might have to do the same to start the 2020-21 season just to keep Boston afloat.

The Celtics ranked dead last in the league in offensive rating at an impossibly anemic 90.4 during their two preseason games. Tatum is going to be on the court for big minutes and will put up loud numbers which nudges him into the MVP conversation.


2. Robert Williams makes a leap; Daniel Theis is traded at deadline


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We’re not feeling particularly confident about this declaration based on the preseason and there’s a strong chance that Theis is so vital to the big man position that the Celtics' hands are tied until the offseason.

However, if Tristan Thompson pairs well with Boston’s core and emerges as the first-unit big man, and Timelord shows enough for coach Brad Stevens to lean on him for 15-20 minutes per night, then the Celtics have to ponder moving Theis if only because of his impending free-agent status and their own need for draft assets. Theis is earning $5 million in the final year of his current deal and the Celtics are going to be hard-pressed to offer even a modest bump in salary given their cap constraints. The Celtics could wait until the summer and try to move him via sign-and-trade and still recoup a draft asset but Boston has to at least consider moving him early in order to ensure maximum return.

The opposite end of this bold prediction spectrum: Theis maintains his grasp on the starting role and it’s Williams that is traded as a key piece in any deal involving the Gordon Hayward trade exception.


3. Aaron Nesmith is a starter during the first half of the season


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Stevens talks all the time about trying to find players who can accentuate the talents of Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Celtics desperately need shooting in order to loosen things up for the Jays and Nesmith might be the team’s best hope to keep defenses honest.

We acknowledge that rookies have to earn their stripes and Nesmith’s defense has to improve if Stevens is going to fully trust him in an elevated role. But shooting is vital -- or even just the threat of shooting -- and Nesmith getting time alongside the Jays feels important. He doesn’t have to shoot like Duncan Robinson; he just has to scare teams enough to stay home on him.

Nesmith shuffles back to a reserve role before the second half as the Celtics use the Hayward TPE to add someone like Aaron Gordon or Harrison Barnes to their starting group before the March 25 trade deadline.


4. Fans back in stands as No. 4 seed Celtics upset the Bucks


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Maybe this is just wishful thinking given the state of our pandemic world right now but let’s cross our fingers and hope that vaccine distribution helps fans get back inside TD Garden by June. The Celtics, after surging their way to a fourth-place finish in the East after a painfully slow start, draw the top-seeded Bucks in the East semifinals and ride the boost from a rollicking Garden to get back in the conference finals.

What happens there? Well, that’s enough bold proclamations for one entry (and Celtics fans better hope the Nets don’t look nearly as good as they did during that preseason visit, or otherwise combust along the way).


5. The Celtics mortgage the future for the now


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Thin on desirable young talent, the Celtics are going to have to overwhelm potential trade partners with draft assets. But with their championship window open now given the leaps of Tatum and Brown, Ainge should be more willing to mortgage future first-rounders in order to fill in the gaps around the core.

Given that the Carsen Edwardses and Semi Ojeleyes of the world are unlikely to entice teams to give up prime talent, Boston is just going to have to swallow hard and move future first-rounders in order to facilitate deals. Otherwise, the team has to get really creative in restocking its now-barren trove of picks.


Bob



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Robert Williams will make a leap......into oblivion unfortunately. Hope I’m wrong.

I think there's a good possibility on all 5 of those.

Unfortunately the prediction on Theis getting traded could be part of the one about mortgaging the future for now. I've been in favor of the long slow approach of building through the draft and signing younger FAs. Other East teams are building up rosters so quickly that no longer looks possible. If the team is going to compete while Tatum is still around, and hopes to keep him at the end of his current deal, some aggressive changes are going to have to happen. Getting players in to compete for a title fast is going to be costly but necessary.

1. Doubtful.  If Tatum is our first option, he is also the other team's #1 focus on defense.  He may get there eventually, but this season?

2a. Not enough of a leap to make him anything but #3 big.  Thompson/Theis are #1/#2 or #2/#1, depending on matchups.  Time Lord could get more playing time, but he doesn't get ahead of the T/T duo.

2b.  No.  Just no.  If we are in it to win it, you don't trade Theis.  Besides, what does his $5M contract bring up that the TPEs cannot.  We have three of them, call them small, medium and LARGE.  Use the small and medium ones this season and use the LARGE one in the future.

3.  Wishful thinking that may come true.  The other options for shooters are Smart and GWilliams?  Nesmith just needs to learn team defense a little to make it work.  That leaves our bench stronger with Smart and Gwill playing against other bench players.

4. We'll be lucky to be the 4th seed.  It's a tale of two (half) seasons.  In the first half, we'll be under .500 and in the second half we'll be over .500, so the average leaves us at approximately, .500, maybe 6th seed.  The recovery from covid will happen much later than June, there's not enough time or vaccinations to make it safe to gather in such big crowd situations.  Besides, getting in all 72 games without even a temporary shutdown would be a miracle.

5. See 2b.  Sure, trade some future 1st and 2nd round picks with the TPEs to get some veteran experience.  I just don't agree with the terminology, "Mortgage the future for the now".  What good are a couple late first round picks (non-lottery) going to be?  Just let our current crop of young guys grow and develop.  In the meanwhile, fill in the gaps with the TPEs.

The way I see it, the Celtics still have a young foundation with MS sandwiched in between the J's.  Any team in the NBA can build a contender around those players.

The competition looks fierce.  We still have too many unknowns.  

I do think that Danny would be wise to pair down this roster away from so many under-developed players.  I think he made two mistakes last year.  One was signing Kemba to a max deal and the other was adding tons of questionable rookie prospects to the roster.  There is no way to develop that many young guys.

My not so bold prediction is that Danny makes a trade by packaging a couple of young players and maybe a future pick.  One of his  TPEs will allow him to bring in more salary than he has going out.  I would target a PF.

I do think Danny did a good job in drafting AN and PP this year and I think they can help us this year.  I was however disappointed that he did not go big at #30 or add another shooter.  This draft unlike last year is the one where he should have used all 3 first rounders.  

The one guy that I believe Danny would like to move is Kemba Walker but that contract is toxic and will remain that way until he comes back and can play at a high level.  More immediately Danny probably does not have that option but he does have the TPE and enough young assets to make a move.  I would offer up any combination of every rookie added to the team last year Plus semi.  I would even trade a future pick if the guy coming back is a keeper.

If what gyso says about Celtics finishing below 4th seed comes true, Celtic owners will clean house of its two current residents, Danny and Brad. Wife's paycheck. Squared.

db

dbrown,

Is your wife gainfully employed? If not, you aren't putting up much collateral for your bet.

Where they finish opens the door for Danny to execute a trade during the off season with the bigger TPE.

The elephant in the room is KW.  If he comes back strong all is forgiven.  If he does not, Danny may see his stock go down a few pegs.  Owners do not like paying guys millions of dollars if the ROI is questionable.

I think we need to give this team some space to gel. We should not assume that other teams are all set. They are not.

She's a high school math teacher with tenure. She also works online classes part time across the state.

I "bet" with hers because her salary is VERY predictable coupled with tenure, meaning unless she does something criminal, she ain't gettin' fired either. Now I've got everyone in the household betting her salary on just about anything anyone is completely sure of. It's a family joke now. In essence, why would one offer up a sure thing (her pay) only to give it up on a bet less than 100%?

You don't want me "betting" my paycheck because in sales it is very unpredictable although I have a base salary. You might hit the jackpot or you may be holding the proverbial flaming bag o' pooh! Not a sure thing.

She makes very good money. She works far harder than I do. If she got paid and treated the way teachers are treated overseas like rock stars with the pay to back it up, I wouldn't have to work!! In sales it's different. Working hard yes, but working smart is the key. It irritates her sometimes how hard she has to work to earn what she makes while it appears I skate through, putting in half the effort and making the same or more.

When I bet like the above, it's a sucker bet, i.e. don't take the other side of it! But you are correct. Zero times any number is still zero! So now, you guys and gal are part of/in on the family joke!

I did deviate from this one time with her. She indicated that she had never heard the song "Rock Me Like A Hurricane" by the Scorpions during a One Hit Wonder discussion we were having. Now granted she typically only listens to country music all her life, I was pretty confident she had heard this rock and roll song.

I quickly jumped on the opportunity, began to search on YouTube and while doing that was so confident that she had heard it said, "I'll drive a car going 100 mph off a 1,000 ft cliff into an eternal fire pit if you haven't heard this song before.

Needless to say, I am still around!! "Oh, yeah!! That song!!
Yeah, I've heard that!!" Actually I think that outlandish bet may have been what started it all with her paycheck.

db

dboss,

I think Kemba will come back stronger...like ridiculously stronger. KW was my biggest surprise vote going into the season.

db

dbrown4 wrote:dboss,

I think Kemba will come back stronger...like ridiculously stronger.  KW was my biggest surprise vote going into the season.

db

db that is my hope too. That KW returns. I however think the prudent course of action is to give him the time needed to really strengthen his knee. In the interim the team may experience some issues in putting points on the board. Defensively we should be solid and that will help but this game is still about buckets.

Brad has to determine the right mix of starters and rotation guys. We need to have enough scorers in our lineups to stay in games. One or two of our pups needs to run with the big dogs and keep up.

dboss,

No rest for the weary. Here come the Bucks!!

db

dbrown,

I thought for sure you were doing the 0 x 0 = 0 thing. Now I understand.

Thanks for 'splaining.

we are UNDER the tax line (way under right now), so the owners are not going to be pissed off about a step back season (IF that even happens).

now if they were paying tax money out and we end up 6th or so...that's a different story perhaps.


Just my thoughts on that one.

I see little downside to us finishing sixth in the East because we let Kemba rest prior to the All Star Break with less than a .500 record and then finishing strong with a healthy Kemba. We could still win the East - Miami did so from the 5 spot - and we would get a better draft pick next year,

GSW is going back to being GSW of old...mediocrity. Only person I recognized in the line up last night was Curry.

The team of the mid-2010's is gone and with it the winning and championships.

db

P.S. Wow! Clips beat LAL. And PP is up for induction!

P.S.S. cowens/old school......wait for it!.....wait for it!! Just like every game that starts out with one team getting up by 20...Same applies to teams. Give it a few more days or weeks.

GSW is going back to being GSW of old...mediocrity. Only person I recognized in the line up last night was Curry.

The team of the mid-2010's is gone and with it the winning and championships.

db

P.S. Wow! Clips beat LAL. And PP is up for induction!

P.S.S. cowens/old school......wait for it!.....wait for it!! Just like every game that starts out with one team getting up by 20...Same applies to teams. Give it a few more days or weeks.

dbrown4 wrote:dboss,

I think Kemba will come back stronger...like ridiculously stronger.  KW was my biggest surprise vote going into the season.

db

I hope you are right about Kemba. But he got a stem cell injection and that means that they are grasping at straws trying to get him well. I haven't heard his exact diagnosis, but I am concerned that there is more going on than we are being told (not that we are entitled to be told everything). I am concerned for his future.