Time Lord's emergence actually presents challenges for the Celtics

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/emergence-robert-williams-presents-challenges-ahead-celtics



Forsberg: Time Lord's emergence actually presents challenges for the Celtics



15H AGO

BY CHRIS FORSBERG
CELTICS INSIDER



As Robert Williams blossoms into an impact NBA talent, the Boston Celtics find themselves with an interesting dilemma in the 10-day crawl to the 2021 NBA trade deadline.

Boston now has three centers -- Williams, Daniel Theis, and Tristan Thompson -- who can make a case for starter minutes. Each player, most assuredly, has their own deficiencies. But the bottom line is that, as Boston leans heavier on single-big lineups, there may be only 48 total minutes to split with that trio.

After Williams produced one of his best games as a pro, putting up 16 points and 13 rebounds in just 19 minutes against the (tanking) Rockets, Stevens acknowledged the team’s desire to ramp up his role and the squeeze that could put on the other bigs.

"I just think we can make it so that [Williams] can play more, more and more as the season goes on,” said Stevens. "Again, the density of the games and his [injury] history, especially last year, we’re just being conservative. But he’s getting a lot better. You can see that. And he’s able to play a little bit longer stints than he has in the past, because he plays really hard when he’s out there.

"So that’s all encouraging. I thought both [Williams and Thompson] did a good job. I talked to Theis at halftime -- we’re going to be in a situation more now where one of those guys isn’t playing as much as we're smaller. It won’t be the same guys every night because it’ll be matchup dependent, and kind of who’s going. But all three are good players.


"Rob, obviously, gives us an upside there that I think we just need to keep building and building and building."


Over the past 13 games, Williams is averaging 8.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks over 18.1 minutes per game. He’s shooting 72.1 percent from the floor in that span.

The Celtics’ performance with Williams on the floor over that 13 game stretch hasn't been great -- he has a minus-8.6 net rating over 236 minutes -- but most of Boston’s bench players have eyesore numbers for that same stretch.

Williams’ ability to change a game with his energy is undeniable. Now it’s one thing to do it against what was essentially the Rio Grande Valley Vipers and the next step is for Williams to be able to be as impactful against top competition.

The cries for Williams to elevate to a starting role have already started. This writer, rarely bashful in his pleas for heavier doses of Time Lord, isn’t quite ready to hand him the first-unit keys, especially if the team is trying to manage his workload given his injury history. But it’s also undeniable that he’s having a positive impact when paired with the core of his team.

To try to gauge which big man is performing best alongside Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, we checked out the splits when the Jays are paired with each big man this season. Here’s what you find:





Williams’ 94 minutes alongside the Jays is admittedly a super small sample. That said, roughly a third of those minutes have come in the fourth quarter, including some small doses of the "Crunch" Time Lord, and the trio has a net rating of plus-10.5 over 31 fourth-quarter minutes.

The defense in that small sample has been fantastic. In fact, it’s jarring to see that the Jays plus Williams trio has held opponents to a  mere 92.9 points per 100 possessions this season.

Swap in Tristan Thompson and Boston’s defensive rating is 112.3 in 416 minutes with the Jays this season. The numbers with both Thompson and Theis are slightly skewed because of some rough patches with a clunky two-big lineup early in the year sans Kemba Walker (in fact, the Jays plus Theis and Thompson have a defensive rating of 116.7 in 262 minutes this year).

So the lingering question is what happens from here. A few possibilities:


Keeping the Big Three but someone gets squeezed each night

If the Celtics are concerned about Williams holding up physically, they can ride out the season with all three bigs on the roster. As Stevens hinted, one of them is almost certainly going to get squeezed each game. In two of the past three games, it has been Theis who has sat. He played only 7:12 in a win over Toronto before the All-Star break, then only 6:29 against Houston.

Theis provides much-needed floor spacing and a quality 3-point shoot, which makes it likely that he won’t always be the odd-big out.


Celtics trade a big at the deadline

There’s a case to be made for trading each of Boston’s three bigs:

Theis, who will turn 29 next month, is a free agent after the season and, with numerous teams set to have cap space, he could find a payday north of what the Celtics can afford to spend. If Boston is not convinced it can retain Theis, the team has to consider recouping value. His chemistry with Boston’s core, and Walker in particular, make it more likely the team waits until the summer and addresses his future then (sign-and-trade options would still be available).

Thompson, who just turned 30, is making $9.3 million this year and $9.7 next season. While he hasn’t had quite the impact that Boston might have envisioned when they utilized the mid-level exception to sign him, he’s had encouraging moments. The Celtics believe his championship experience can aid this young team in the postseason. His salary, though, could help the Celtics make deals that might allow them to preserve the full value of the Gordon Hayward traded player exception into the summer.

Williams might be Boston’s most valuable young asset with his recent emergence. While the jury is still very much out on the likes of Aaron Nesmith and Romeo Langford, Williams has shown he might only be scratching the surface of his high-flying potential. The Celtics don’t have a lot of glitzy draft picks any more, but Williams is the sort of player that can at least get them into the conversation for more established stars.


Adding depth option to fill a departure in the buyout market

The Celtics have (somewhat improbably) been linked this week to LaMarcus Aldridge. Clearly, Boston is not using its traded player exception but reports insist that he’d be a top target if he landed on the buyout market.

The Spurs are hoping to move Aldridge in part because his defense has become a liability. Four months shy of his 36th birthday, Aldridge moves painfully slow on the defensive end and cannot protect the rim like he once did. His offensive talents are still there but he’s certainly not going to aid the process of slowing Joel Embiid or Giannis Antetokounmpo on a playoff stage. And guards’ eyes light up when they see him plodding in their direction. There simply might be better depth options than Aldridge, particularly if he yearns for a hefty role wherever he lands next.


Bob
MY NOTE:  Having a player blossoming to where you can't keep him off the court is a good problem to have, a problem every coach wants.  My list of "core roster players", players that it would take a Godfather offer to pry out of my cold, dead fingers, now includes the Js, Smart and The Time Lord.  Could it happen?  Sure, the only thing that matters is #18, but you are going to have to wow me with the talent being offered because each of those four players are so impactful you have to be really scratching a nasty itch, positively a "roster rash", for me to take you seriously.  And 2-4 ok rotation players isn't going to cut it.  At least one of those players has to be legit, for real, and not just "upside".  We've been waiting for The Time Lord to figure it out, up his game and do it consistently.  The fact that he still has a way to go before he hits his ceiling doesn't change the reality of what he is capable of today.  If you want him you need to include a player whose reality matches up with The Time Lord's current status.

Caveat:  If Danny and Brad know that RWill's health is an issue, that he will never climb up to starter level status because his body won't handle the extra minutes, then I'd be more willing to deal him.  Otherwise, not unless you're prepared to blow my mind.


.

As BobH said, above, and I agree...good problem to have.

The article sounds like another in a line of overkill and Debbie-Downer over-reaction we've seen on every little hiccup with the Celtics lately. Got something good going on? Wait, let me frame the downside for you. Let's talk about who might be hurt or traded due to the emergence of a player we've all been rooting for. I'm thinking of sending Chris Forsberg one of those FTD Sunshine Pick-Me-Up bouquets. Love those sunshine happy attitudes!

I think I'll just enjoy watching RWIII play and ignore the rest, without over-analyzing it. That might be fun.

Bobh

There are so many contradictions of fact that we have to consume as fans.

Firstly, having 3 centers on this team is necessary regardless of the much discussed physical endurance of RW.  All of our centers will miss games:

Daniel Theis

DATE DESCRIPTION

02/15/2021 Finger
01/16/2021 Finger
01/14/2021 Health Protocols
08/12/2020 Foot
08/10/2020 Right Foot
02/08/2020 Ankle
02/04/2020 Ankle
01/17/2020 Knee
01/12/2020 Knee
01/07/2020 Knee
11/25/2019 Illness
11/12/2019 Finger
11/06/2019 Ankle
10/31/2019 Left Ankle
10/26/2019 Ankle
04/08/2019 Foot
03/13/2019 Illness
02/28/2019 Knee
02/08/2019 Knee
10/29/2018 Right Foot Torn Plantar Fascia
10/26/2018 Foot
03/12/2018 Torn Meniscus
03/11/2018 Knee
02/28/2018 Sore Right Hamstring
12/19/2017 Fractured Nose

Tristian Thompson

DATE DESCRIPTION

01/07/2021 Health And Safety Protocols
12/30/2020 Rest
12/21/2020 Hamstring
03/08/2020 Eye
02/29/2020 Knee
02/04/2020 Right Quad
01/05/2020 Illness
12/05/2019 Illness
11/19/2019 Rest
04/08/2019 Rest
04/06/2019 Rest
01/17/2019 Foot
12/10/2018 Sprained Foot
03/04/2018 Sprained Right Ankle
12/14/2017 Sore Calf
11/02/2017 Strained Left Calf

Brad Stevens is obsessed with small ball and that is the real issue.  He is slow to recognized the impact of having a low post scorer that collapses the defense and opens up catch and shoot opportunities.  It helps if you have a quick thinking center that can identify open shooters (RWIII)

I like the so-called bigger lineup with Theis in there but I would pair him with RW and bring TT off the bench.  And when we went with a so-called small lineup I would start RWIII yesterday because if you surround him with shooters you are going to get strong play in the post at both ends.  

I think playing a 5 out offense is suicidal because you cannot rebound.  

We have 3 centers on the team and 2 of them (DT and TT) are not good enough to win a championship with.  So trading your best center who also happens to be your most affordable center, your youngest center and your only center with upside is just damn foolish.  

This team does not need another established star.  We just need a reliable veteran preferably a wing that can come off the bench to score and play some defense.  

The Celtics cannot escape the reality that we need to find a lower cost option at the point that will allow us to keep Jaylen and Jayson and retained Marcus Smart.  Those are the 3 main guys that you build around and I am adding RW name to that list because he is our best center.  I think PP can establish himself as part of our top 5 core guys moving forward.  

The Celtics could probably make a deal to get Barnes or Grant if they used RW in a trade.  I do not want either of them quite that much.  I can see where a 3 wing lineup can be effective but you really need a defensive minded big to make that really work.

bobh,

Agreed. Looking more and more like DA will be sitting out the next 10 days...or better yet, please don't do anything we are going to regret!!

db

“Brad Stevens is obsessed with small ball and that is the real issue.  He is slow to recognized the impact of having a low post scorer that collapses the defense and opens up catch and shoot opportunities.  It helps if you have a quick thinking center that can identify open shooters (RWIII)”.

Dboss, you said a mouthful. I watch no NBA and very little Celtics. I find the modern game redundant and unexciting. This site provides me with outstanding information and even better analysis of my favorite team. IMO even if we had Wilt, Shaq, McHale, or Kareem, arguably the 4 best low post scorers in league history, Brad would still run the same offense. I know the game has changed and low post pivot play is not considered analytically prudent, everything is PnR and hoisting the 3 but for me at least the game is nearly unwatchable. Brad is a product of the times. He (and many other coaches and GM’s) can’t change. As I stated earlier I don’t watch any non Celtics games and not many Celtics games but when I was an avid viewer I noticed a distinct lack of coaching innovation. Every team seemed to run the same sets, every coach with the exception of a few had the same philosophy. I don’t think that there is a trade or buyout to be made that will move the needle. Aldridge, Tucker, Barnes, Grant, big deal. Brad’s coaching style, and most every other coach in the league, will not change or seemingly adapt to different personnel. Square peg round hole be damned, analytics says it’ll work! Forgive my rant guys, my observations may be misinformed or totally off base but it is just that...my observations. I love this site and visit it every single day. The knowledge here is second to none and provides me with way more entertainment and enlightenment of the Celtics and NBA than watching the games or the various talking heads of cable tv.

Looking at RWill's stats alongside the two J's, it's obvious what Brad's conclusion will be: sit the two J's.

willjr wrote:“Brad Stevens is obsessed with small ball and that is the real issue.  He is slow to recognized the impact of having a low post scorer that collapses the defense and opens up catch and shoot opportunities.  It helps if you have a quick thinking center that can identify open shooters (RWIII)”.

Dboss, you said a mouthful. I watch no NBA and very little Celtics. I find the modern game redundant and unexciting. This site provides me with outstanding information and even better analysis of my favorite team. IMO even if we had Wilt, Shaq, McHale, or Kareem, arguably the 4 best low post scorers in league history, Brad would still run the same offense. I know the game has changed and low post pivot play is not considered analytically prudent, everything is PnR and hoisting the 3 but for me at least the game is nearly unwatchable. Brad is a product of the times. He (and many other coaches and GM’s) can’t change. As I stated earlier I don’t watch any non Celtics games and not many Celtics games but when I was an avid viewer I noticed a distinct lack of coaching innovation. Every team seemed to run the same sets, every coach with the exception of a few had the same philosophy. I don’t think that there is a trade or buyout to be made that will move the needle. Aldridge, Tucker, Barnes, Grant, big deal. Brad’s coaching style, and most every other coach in the league, will not change or seemingly adapt to different personnel. Square peg round hole be damned, analytics says it’ll work! Forgive my rant guys, my observations may be misinformed or totally off base but it is just that...my observations. I love this site and visit it every single day. The knowledge here is second to none and provides me with way more entertainment and enlightenment of the Celtics and NBA than watching the games or the various talking heads of cable tv.

Willjr

I wish the team was as exciting as we are

If Danny Ainge decides not to make a move to upgrade the roster, we might as well play Aaron Nesmith and Romeo Langford if he can be located. They are lottery picks, albeit both only at 14 but how do they develop if you do not play them? When was the last time a Celtics lottery pick play so few minutes?

Danny said we cannot win this year and has thrown cold water on using the big TPE so we might as well develop our two young guards/wings. They will have a lot of ups and downs when they play but playing time is most important to accelerate development. Let them play through the bad patches.