Where Do Boston Celtics Go from Here After Trade, Buyout Market Failures?

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2938932-where-do-boston-celtics-go-from-here-after-trade-buyout-market-failures



Where Do Boston Celtics Go from Here After Trade, Buyout Market Failures?


A. SHERROD BLAKELY

MARCH 31, 2021




Michael Dwyer/Associated Press



The NBA trade deadline has come and gone, and most of the best players on the buyout market have found new homes.

That means the "they were so close" chatter associated with the Boston Celtics and top-shelf talent is once again alive and well.

Boston's biggest trade deadline move came when it acquired Evan Fournier from Orlando for a pair of second-round picks.

In his ninth NBA season, the 2012 first-round pick of the Denver Nuggets was not among the top-tier players bandied about as being on the move.

He wasn't even the top trade target (Nikola Vucevic) or the second-most sought-after target (Aaron Gordon) on the Magic roster.

Boston's inability to land the biggest names on the trade and buyout market speaks to the growing challenges it faces in remaining among the top teams in the East.

Under eighth-year coach Brad Stevens, the Celtics have advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals in three of the last four seasons.

But this season, Boston is struggling to keep pace with the top teams in the East, such as Philadelphia, Brooklyn and Milwaukee, all of whom made trade deadline moves to bolster their status.

Boston's fall from basketball grace lumps it into a quartet of back-of-the-pack playoff teams with Miami, Indiana and Chicago.

"Winning is hard in this league," Danny Ainge, Boston's president of basketball operations, told B/R in an exclusive interview. "With the parity there is in the league and when you are not a superpower team, you have to work hard to play to beat anybody in this league. And that's been proven to us this year. Hopefully we can get that message.

Ainge added: "It doesn't mean you're not going to bring your best effort every night. But we're a team that ... we don't have a lot of room for error. We're not like the 2008 [Celtics] team or the 1986 Celtics team or the 1966 Celtics team; sometimes you can play poorly and still win games. We have to play well to win on any given night. We just haven't."


Elise Amendola/Associated Press


So where do the Celtics go from here?

Rival executives believe Boston's status as an elite team in the East is in serious jeopardy of having run its course, pointing to the progress made by others in the conference, which has coincided with the Celtics' regression.

Boston (23-24) hasn't had a below-.500 record at this stage of a season since the 2014-15 campaign, when a late surge catapulted the team into the postseason for the first time under Stevens (then in his second year in Boston).

But the failures by Boston during the trade and buyout market season provide clues as to how the Celtics will try to climb their way back to the top of the East.

The Celtics have every intention of building their team of the future around All-Stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, players that rival executives said were "untouchable" during this trade season.

Ainge has indicated Boston will try to re-sign Fournier this offseason, a daunting task considering the team's salary-cap status next season.

Rival executives agree that for Boston to reemerge as a top-tier team in the NBA, it'll have to find a blockbuster deal akin to the kind of roster upheaval Celtics fans haven't seen since the Kevin Garnett trade from Minnesota in 2007.

"I don't think they'll do something that dramatic," said an Eastern Conference executive. "But I would be very surprised if Danny doesn't make a big, bold move this summer."

Multiple league sources anticipate Washington's Bradley Beal will be a primary target for Boston this summer.

The 27-year-old Beal leads the NBA in scoring with 31.3 points per game while shooting an efficient 48.5 percent from the field.

Beal and Tatum, both St. Louis natives, are very close and had a chance to be teammates during last month's All-Star Game.  

But rival executives indicate the Wizards have shown no desire to talk, let alone negotiate, with teams on a possible Beal trade, so Boston isn't holding its breath on getting a deal done.

The Celtics were reluctant to include Brown or Tatum in any trade talks this past year, and that thinking has not changed, according to a league executive.

Would Beal qualify?

"Now you have something to talk about," replied the executive.


Nick Wass/Associated Press


But for Boston to put itself on the path toward basketball prominence, Ainge will have some tough decisions to make with his roster.  

While possible, it's highly unlikely Boston can pay Fournier what he would command as a free agent and keep the team's core group together.

Tatum, Brown, Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart will earn about $104 million next season. Boston's guaranteed payroll for next season is around $132 million, which includes the second year of Tristan Thompson's mid-level exception.

Because of Thompson's MLE, the Celtics are hard-capped with a projected luxury-tax apron for the 2021-22 season of $143.1 million.

In other words, they'll need to make at least one major move on the trade front to create enough salary-cap space to re-sign Fournier.

"With Danny, he could be bluffing; you just never really know for sure," said a second league executive when told about Boston's interest in re-signing Fournier. "But if he's serious about keeping Fournier, I can't see them doing so without trading a couple of guys."

Rival executives believe Boston will listen more intently than it has this past year for offers that involve Smart and Walker.

Even if Boston is successful along those lines, it will need to fill out the back end of the roster with talent such as trade deadline acquisitions Luke Kornet and Moe Wagner.

Will those moves be enough for a Celtics return to the short list of title contenders?

That's unlikely.

But rival executives remain convinced that if any GM can transform a good team like the Celtics into a great one overnight, it's Ainge.

"Look at the track record," texted a Western Conference executive. "He got KG [Garnett] when nobody thought he could. DA [Ainge] flipped KG, PP [Paul Pierce] to BKN [Brooklyn] for the reboot. Danny'll get them back, just when you don't see it coming, like this summer. I hope I'm wrong, though."


Bob


.

I'd like to answer the question posed by the article with a question. My 6th grade teacher would not have been pleased.

How do we know the team experienced failures in trades and buyout markets?

So much that is reported is speculation and there is little in the way of confirmation that a deal was ever seriously attempted. We don't really know about much of what they did or didn't try.

(Sorry about that question thing, Miss Sherwood)

He lost me after " . . . After Trade, Buyout Market Failures".

He said it again later on.  Then he said we need to make a major move.  I want a little of what he is smoking!!

You can list a number of trades for some other team's best players on your fingers, but if Danny actually asked the other teams, he is likely to get the middle one back.

IMO, we do not need a major move.  Eleven (11) of our losses were by two possessions or less.  Another five were by three possessions or less.

Our core four (J's, Kemba and Smart) have only played a handful of games together (+/-).  Jayson had covid aftereffect symptoms, which seem to have finally abated.  

Danny didn't hit a home run, but he got Fournier, Wagner and Kornet for a couple second round picks, a couple marginal players and a one good player who was not part of our future.

Now we have a shooter and a couple intriguing tall mobile players to go with our intact core.  Please don't discount the fact that we were able to keep our two most recent lottery picks.  Maybe one of them turns into a valued rotational player.   Time will tell.

I posted it without really reading it first (ergo my lack of a "MY NOTE:" epilog).  

Some assumptions are probably accurate.  

1.  Danny probably was prioritizing Vuc and Gordon over Fournier.

2.  Danny could not/did not consummate a trade for his two priority trade targets.

By those standards and definition the trades he did make weren't inadequate and, arguably, losses in that other teams in our conference made bigger moves.

HOWEVER, that is where he starts to lose me.

Denver gave up Gary Harris for Gordon.  How do we top that?  Giving up Smart?  For Aaron Gordon?!  I'd have a kniption.  Vuc and Aminu were traded to Chicago for Otto Porter, Wendell Carter Jr and two first round picks.  How would we have matched that?  Otto Porter's better than anybody we could have offered, short of Smart or one of our core players and does anybody really think our first round picks in 2021 and 2023 will be as good as Chicago's?  Chicago is in 10th place in the East right now.  They'd make the "play in" tournament but would have to get past Indy and Miami to move into the real playoffs.  If they don't win that round they are in the lottery.  Orlando would be getting a lottery pick this year, if so.  We're healthy, we've got more home games left than any other team in the league and fans are returning to Da Gahden.  We're not going to be a lottery team this year unless at least one of the Js gets COVID.  Not just "COVID protocols due to contact tracing", actual COVID.  Before the playoffs come around everyone in the NBA will be vaccinated.

His claim "While possible, it's highly unlikely Boston can pay Fournier what he would command as a free agent and keep the team's core group together" requires some assumptions that I am not on board with, namely that we (and that includes him) don't know what Danny and Wyc have planned for the offseason.  Maybe Thompson is gone now that we have Mo and Luke and The Time Lord has arrived.  There's $9.7M freed up.  We also have Bird Rights on Fournier, which allows us to sign him to money that puts us over the cap.  Smart is under contract for next year too.  While it might be preferable to sign him to an extension early we don't need to this offseason.  Who knows where Kemba will be next year?  If Kemba gets traded he has another year after this one and then a player-option year.

Furthermore, I'm expecting there to be some kind of change, a rider, to the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA).  Neither the owners nor the players want to be limited to the lower salary cap that will be imposed by the lockout-reduced revenues, especially since brighter days are straight ahead due to the vaccine rollout and its implications for reopening public venues increasingly to full capacity.  If that happens then Blakely's assumptions get tossed immediately.

Danny said he didn't want to make any moves just for the short-term fix.  He has said he hopes Fournier will be with us for "many years".  I don't believe Danny when he talks about players, their healths or their contracts, but this makes sense.  He got Fournier for a song, not even including his "song Bird" Rights, it makes sense to try to keep him or do a sign-and-trade, right?  I mean, we all know Danny hates to give up assets for nothing, there's no shortage of historical evidence to back that up.  He still has about $11M of TPE to use, and that's just his big one.  A sign-and-trade with Fournier and the TPE to get a player whose contract is choking a front office is another possibility.  That's how we got Fournier in the first place.  There was a fire sale in Mickey Land and every large contract they had got moved.


Bob


.

Boston will be able to resign Fournier but the issue is they already have over $132m in committed salaries next season.
It will be interesting to see how far into the luxury tax Boston is willing to go next season.
The league has already announced that the salary cap and the luxury tax threshold will be raised, regardless of league revenue.
In looking at the trade deadline further for Boston, it seems like a smart decision to stay under the luxury tax line, even though they had to give up Theis for less accomplished players.
Staying under the luxury tax line will delay the repeater tax for an additional year and will enable Boston to receive about $7m as one of the 23 luxury tax recipient teams.


NBA's Projected Salary Cap and Luxury Tax Reportedly Set for 2021-2024 Seasons
Tyler Conway
November 15, 2020·1 min read
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver does an interview before Game 3 of basketball's NBA Finals, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2020, in Lake Buena Vista, Fla. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver does an interview before Game 3 of basketball's NBA Finals, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2020, in Lake Buena Vista, Fla. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
The NBA has reportedly set salary-cap projections for the 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons as it attempts to smooth the losses expected because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported the cap and tax projections for the future seasons as follows:

2021-2022: $112 million and $136.6 million
2022-2023: $115.7 million and $140 million
2023-2024: $119.2 million and $144.9 million

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/nbas-projected-salary-cap-luxury-193401277.html

In terms of trades Danny was almost certainly heavily restricted in what he could do and how much he could "spend" and "commit".

Given his restrictions I do not believe he could have done any better than he did. He pretty much milked the "not ideal" situation he had for all it was worth. So I do not agree with that assessment at all. Even if you include Wyc and the entire organization I am not sure the best thing would have been to spend money/look for a big trade in the middle of the season.

In terms of buyout signings... It is hard to tell if any of the rumours of interest were true. But my guess is they were at least for Drummond and maybe Cousins. And the fact that Boston is not a hot destination anymore is in my opinion mostly Ainge's fault. So I guess I can understand if he is given a fail there. It is a general fail though not specific to this mid-season.

I hope Fournier shakes up whatever funk he got that made him go 0-10 and perform like we expect in the Dallas game. Is JB playing at all? We will definitely need Fournier to perform against Dallas to get the win.

NYCelt wrote:I'd like to answer the question posed by the article with a question. My 6th grade teacher would not have been pleased.

How do we know the team experienced failures in trades and buyout markets?

So much that is reported is speculation and there is little in the way of confirmation that a deal was ever seriously attempted. We don't really know about much of what they did or didn't try.

(Sorry about that question thing, Miss Sherwood)

I think the answer to the question is, results. Does it really matter what did and did not happen in talks that may or may not have occurred? The results are all we have to go by and the results is not very impressive.

You want to see an example of a quick rebuild, just check out the PHX SUNS! Monty Williams is their new coach and basketball executive. Former Celtics assistant general manager Ryan McDonough was fired as GM and a new GM installed!

112288

gyso wrote:He lost me after " . . . After Trade, Buyout Market Failures".

He said it again later on.  Then he said we need to make a major move.  I want a little of what he is smoking!!

You can list a number of trades for some other team's best players on your fingers, but if Danny actually asked the other teams, he is likely to get the middle one back.

IMO, we do not need a major move.  Eleven (11) of our losses were by two possessions or less.  Another five were by three possessions or less.

Our core four (J's, Kemba and Smart) have only played a handful of games together (+/-).  Jayson had covid aftereffect symptoms, which seem to have finally abated.  

Danny didn't hit a home run, but he got Fournier, Wagner and Kornet for a couple second round picks, a couple marginal players and a one good player who was not part of our future.

Now we have a shooter and a couple intriguing tall mobile players to go with our intact core.  Please don't discount the fact that we were able to keep our two most recent lottery picks.  Maybe one of them turns into a valued rotational player.   Time will tell.

.

I don’t know what you mean by “if Danny asked the other teams he is likely to get the middle one back”. Any good GM, Player personnel director is going to talk and negotiate if you have something they want and they have something you want. What GM is going flip someone the bird because he wants to make a trade or talk about trading for a player? If there is one out there he/she needs to be fired.
It’s just my opinion but Danny failed in the BO and the Trade market. The results are what they are. Whatever did or didn’t go on we will never know. Bottom line is we are getting worse as a team and it shouldn’t be happening. This thing about nobody wanting to deal with Ainge is nonsense. I hope he finds a way to get it done. I give him his flowers for KG, the Tatum deal and Smart. I give him heat for his latest snafus and deservedly so.

Vankisa wrote:In terms of trades Danny was almost certainly heavily restricted in what he could do and how much he could "spend" and "commit".

Given his restrictions I do not believe he could have done any better than he did. He pretty much milked the "not ideal" situation he had for all it was worth. So I do not agree with that assessment at all. Even if you include Wyc and the entire organization I am not sure the best thing would have been to spend money/look for a big trade in the middle of the season.

In terms of buyout signings... It is hard to tell if any of the rumours of interest were true. But my guess is they were at least for Drummond and maybe Cousins. And the fact that Boston is not a hot destination anymore is in my opinion mostly Ainge's fault. So I guess I can understand if he is given a fail there. It is a general fail though not specific to this mid-season.

I hope Fournier shakes up whatever funk he got that made him go 0-10 and perform like we expect in the Dallas game. Is JB playing at all? We will definitely need Fournier to perform against Dallas to get the win.

Quick question: Why do you think its mostly Danny’s fault that Boston is not a hot destination ‘anymore’?

Gyso, I agree with your optimistic assessment of Danny's judgment and the team's future. This year may well be a total bust, but we have a really good core of quality young players. - Smart, Brown, Tatum, RWill, and Pritchard - who could be consistent winners with the right supporting cast around them. Which does not include TT, Tremont, Carsen, and Tacko. Nesmith will be a plus, and who knows about Romeo? Kemba has been improving. All is not lost.

worcester wrote:Gyso, I agree with your optimistic assessment of Danny's judgment and the team's future. This year may well be a total bust, but we have a really good core of quality young players. - Smart, Brown, Tatum, RWill, and Pritchard - who could be consistent winners with the right supporting cast around them. Which does not include TT, Tremont, Carsen, and Tacko. Nesmith will be a plus, and who knows about Romeo? Kemba has been improving. All is not lost.

+1 exactly guys

Ktron,

Read the sentence again. I just ended it with a little humorous hyperbole. That' all. No reason to get excited. Counting trades on the fingers led to getting the middle one back? LOL? No?

As you said, none of us has clue one about what goes on in Danny's office or, for that matter, in the locker room. Taking what the media spins and running with it makes for a poor argument.

I agree, the "no one wants to talk with Danny" bit is tiresome. As it the "Boston is not a hot destination" bit. Build it and they will come. It just is not built yet.

And thanks for your laser focus on the joke part of my post while you totally ignore the actual meaning of said post. *shrugs*

I take it that horses are not your friends?

gyso wrote:Ktron,

Read the sentence again.  I just ended it with a little humorous hyperbole.  That' all.  No reason to get excited.  Counting trades on the fingers led to getting the middle one back?  LOL?  No?

As you said, none of us has clue one about what goes on in Danny's office or, for that matter, in the locker room.  Taking what the media spins and running with it makes for a poor argument.

I agree, the "no one wants to talk with Danny"  bit is tiresome.  As it the "Boston is not a hot destination" bit.  Build it and they will come.  It just is not built yet.

And thanks for your laser focus on the joke part of my post while you totally ignore the actual meaning of said post.  *shrugs*

I take it that horses are not your friends?

LOL, It sounds to me like you are more focused on your own joke. No I didn’t get it. Blame me.
How much of what I wrote did you absorb? Don’t be so defensive sir.