Examining Celtics trade and free agency options for offseason after Kemba Walker deal

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2021/06/examining-celtics-trade-and-free-agency-options-for-offseason-after-kemba-walker-deal.html



Examining Celtics trade and free agency options for offseason after Kemba Walker deal



Updated 11:40 AM; Today 11:40 AM


By Brian Robb | brobb@masslive.com



Brad Stevens wasted little time in making his imprint on 2021-22 Celtics season from an executive role after completing a blockbuster trade in just his third week on the job.

The three-player trade that brings Al Horford and Moses Brown to Boston dramatically reshapes some of the options the Celtics’ brass have at their disposal as they reshape last year’s disappointing roster. Let’s examine where Boston is now with their salary commitments for next season and the new paths potentially in place now in trying to build out a contending roster for the future via trades and free agency.


Under contract for 2021-22

Jayson Tatum: $28.1 million

Al Horford: $27 million

Jaylen Brown: $26.8 million

Marcus Smart: $14.3 million

Tristan Thompson: $9.7 million

Romeo Langford: $3.8 million

Rob Williams: $3.6 million

Aaron Nesmith: $3.6 million

Grant Williams: $2.6 million

Payton Pritchard: $2.1 million

Carsen Edwards: $1.7 million

Moses Brown: $1.7 million ($500k guaranteed)


Jabari Parker: $2.3 million (only $100k guaranteed)



Dead cap hits:

Guerschon Yabusele ($1.04 million)

Demetrius Jackson ($93,000)

Total payroll: $128.7 million committed to 12 player slots (including No. 20 pick, non Tatum All-NBA)


2021-22 NBA Estimates:

Projected Salary cap: $112.4 million

Projected Luxury tax: $136.6 million


Projected Apron: $142 million

Analysis: The Celtics managed to cut $10.5 million from their payroll for the 2021-22 season heading into the NBA Draft with their trade on Friday. The biggest batch of savings comes from going from Walker’s $36 million salary down to Al Horford’s $27 million. The cap savings grow even more in the following season from swapping out Walker’s deal for Horford’s but the cost-cutting in the present was beneficial for Boston when it comes to rounding out a roster within budget for the upcoming year.

Another noteworthy part of the deal however was Boston swapping out the No. 16 overall pick for Moses Brown’s less costly contract. There’s no doubt Boston would have loved to keep the first-round pick, however, that was the cost of doing business and dumping Walker’s significant guaranteed money for a less onerous contract in Horford.


There is a silver lining for Boston though when it comes to moving off the first-round pick. They will save $1.5 million for next season by replacing that contract slot for Brown’s cheap deal. Since Brown’s contract is non-guaranteed moving forward, it will give Boston added flexibility to open up more cap space beyond 2022 if the team desires to.


Roster building options

The Celtics currently have 13 roster spots (11 with guaranteed salaries) in place. They received some good fortune in the past week when it comes to payroll management since Jayson Tatum did not make the All-NBA team (avoiding a $5 million salary increase for the All-Star for each year of his deal). The payroll reductions from this Walker deal also opens the door to a few other potential free agency options.

Boston’s current payroll ($128.7 million) put them about $13 million short of the ‘apron’ or hard cap, which only takes effect if the Celtics do certain things this offseason (example: receive a player in a sign-and-trade or use full mid-level exception). For now, the odds are likely that Boston will stick with only using its taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.9 million) instead of the full mid-level exception ($9.5 million) in order to avoid the restrictive hard cap. However, there is a path now to use that bigger free-agent exception if Boston is eyeing a bigger name on the open market.


That road involves Boston moving at least one more significant mid-level contract (Tristan Thompson or Marcus Smart) for a player with reduced or no salary (future draft pick(s)). That path combined with passing on re-signing Evan Fournier to a new contract would create far more wiggle room in Boston’s payroll to stay under the hard cap while using the full mid-level and having enough money left over to fill out the remainder of a competitive roster.

The odds of this happening right now seem rather remote. Boston gave up assets for Fournier at the trade deadline (two second-round picks) in order to get his Bird Rights so they are very much still interested in retaining him if the price is right. However, if Fournier gets a significant long-term offer that’s outside Boston’s preferred price range for him, they could opt to sign-and-trade the veteran elsewhere in order to create a large trade exception for themselves, knowing they might have an appealing alternative option available for the full mid-level exception instead.


Boston’s preferred path will likely come down to Brad Stevens’ long-term team building strategy. Will the team try to avoid long-term deals this summer in order to maintain future cap flexibility to build around Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum? Or will the Celtics move to commit to long-term pacts right away to players they believe fit well around them already? Is Fournier one of those players? It will be an interesting choice for Boston’s revamped front office from that standpoint.


Multiple trade exceptions still available

We already covered some of Boston’s options with their biggest trade exception remaining ($11 million) last week but the Celtics did manage to create a new exception as part of the Walker deal, worth $6.8 million. That gives Boston four usable trade exceptions at the moment that are worth over $4 million heading into this offseason


$11 million (from Gordon Hayward trade)

$6.8 million (from Kemba Walker trade)

$5 million (from Daniel Theis trade)

$4.7 million (from Enes Kanter trade)

Trade exceptions can not be combined so the Celtics will not be able to land a player making over $11 million with any of these exceptions. The Kanter and Hayward exceptions also expire in July or August respectively. However, the Walker and Theis TPEs will last through the remainder of 2021, which will give the Celtics a potentially useful tool to make in-season additions to the roster during the upcoming season without needing to salary match.


Final Thoughts

What path the Celtics end up taking this season is not yet clear but Brad Stevens made a point of emphasizing on Monday that flexibility is crucial as the team builds for the future.

“We felt that, one of things we wanted was the ability to be unencumbered moving forward and kinda have a road ahead,” Stevens explained. “We have a lot of things that we have to address appropriately and this is really hard.”

There are going to be many different roads the Celtics can choose to go down in the weeks and months ahead but they will have a few more options now among them with the competition of this deal.


Bob


.

The following link leads to a part of Larry Coon's NBA Salary Cap FAQ that discusses trading draft picks.  Some of it covers the rules about trading multiple first round picks in a single trade.  That's interesting stuff, but that is not what I want to review today.

What I want to go over today is the rule about trading away first round picks in consecutive seasons, one way around the rule and how trading Kemba along with a first round pick before the next draft was better for team planning and improvement than if we had waited until after the draft to complete the Walker trade.

Many people may not know it, but there is a rule that says that a team cannot trade away future first round draft picks in consecutive years.  That is the Ted Stepien rule (see below).  It was created to protect teams from dumbass owners or General Managers bent on trading away the future for the now, wrecking the team in the process.

Now comes the Walker trade example:

We included the 2021 first round pick (#16) in the trade that sent Walker out and brought Horford and Moses in.  Now we cannot trade our 2022 first round pick (consecutive years, 2021 and 2022) to spice up another trade this summer, or can we?

The key to the Ted Stepien rule is the word, "future".  If we wait until after the 2021 draft, that #16 traded pick is one that was made . . . in the past.  The "future" consecutive years start over and are now 2022 and 2023.  That means that we CAN trade first rounders in consecutive years, 2021 and 2022.  The loophole is in the timing of the trades.

Once this next draft is behind us, we can trade for the missing piece or pieces and include the first round picks for both 2022 and 2024 instead of having to wait another year to start, 2023 and 2025.  That may seem to be a small difference but may be enough of a difference for the other team in the trade to choose us over another trading partner.  

89. How are draft picks handled in trades? What is the Ted Stepien rule?

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q89

Teams are restricted from trading away future first round draft picks in consecutive years. This is known as the "Ted Stepien Rule." Stepien owned the Cavs from 1980-83, and made a series of bad trades (such as the 1980 trade mentioned above) that cost the Cavs several years' first round picks. As a result of Stepien's ineptitude, teams are now prevented from making trades which might leave them without a first round pick in consecutive future years.

The Stepien rule applies only to future first round picks. For example, if this is the 2017-18 season, then a team can trade its 2018 first round pick without regard to whether they had traded their 2017 pick, since their 2017 pick is no longer a future pick. But they can't trade away both their 2018 and 2019 picks, since both are future picks. Teams sometimes work around this rule by trading first round picks in alternate years, or by giving one team the right to swap picks with the other.

When dealing with protected picks, the Stepien rule is interpreted to mean that a team can't trade a pick if there is any chance at all that it will leave the team without a first round pick in consecutive future drafts.

Sounds like good draft capital management by Brad.

Thanks, gyso. We're all wondering how Brad is going to do on his new job. This trade, and the implications of it moving forward on salary and the ability to trade draft picks, is a good data point. A lot more going on in this trade than just talent for talent. It's actually pretty sophisticated.


Bob


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Celtics cap/roster reset and key offseason dates to watch

https://www.celticsblog.com/2021/7/6/22565210/boston-celtics-cap-roster-reset-and-key-offseason-dates-to-watch

Brad Stevens got a head start on the offseason, but he’s got lots of work left to do

By Keith P Smith  Jul 6, 2021, 12:13pm EDT

The Boston Celtics kicked off their offseason about a month early, when they swapped Kemba Walker and the #16 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft for Al Horford and Moses Brown. That move was actually made in the middle of a leadership shakeup that saw Danny Ainge step down at President of Basketball Operations. Ainge was replaced by Brad Stevens, which opened up the head coach position for the Celtics. After making the Horford-Walker trade, Stevens hired Ime Udoka to replace him on the sidelines.

Whew! What a summer!

Wait...the offseason hasn’t even really started yet!

With Udoka in place, Stevens can turn his eyes towards rebuilding the Celtics roster as he sees fit. Over a series of articles, we’ll look at the key decisions Stevens is facing from which free agents should be re-signed to the draft to free agents and trades. The topics we’ll cover are:

· Cap/Roster Reset

· The big free agents: Evan Fournier

· The other free agents: Semi Ojeleye and Luke Kornet

· The Two-Way free agents: Tacko Fall and Tremont Waters

· The non-guarantees: Jabari Parker and Moses Brown

· The Draft: Is Yam Madar this year’s pick? And targets at #45

· The Exceptions: MLE, BAE and TPEs

· Trades: Who stays and who goes?

Let’s start with a reset of who is on the roster, their cap hits and some key dates to watch!

Fully Guaranteed Contracts – 11 players

· Jaylen Brown - $26,758,928

· Carsen Edwards - $1,782,621

· Al Horford - $27,000,000

· Romeo Langford - $3,804,360

· Aaron Nesmith - $3,631,200

· Payton Pritchard - $2,137,440

· Marcus Smart - $14,339,285

· Jayson Tatum - $28,103,500 (will be finalized when cap is set in early-August)

· Tristan Thompson - $9,720,900

· Grant Williams - $2,617,800

· Robert Williams III – $3,661,976

Partial/Non-Guaranteed Contracts – 2 players

· Moses Brown - $1,701,593 – $500,000 guaranteed

· Jabari Parker - $2,283,034 – fully non-guaranteed

Free Agents – 5 players (all values listed are cap holds, not actual salaries)

· Tacko Fall - $1,489,065 – restricted free agent – Two-Way

· Evan Fournier - $26,175,000 – unrestricted free agent – Bird

· Luke Kornet - $2,925,000 – unrestricted free agent – Early Bird

· Semi Ojeleye - $1,669,178 – unrestricted free agent – Bird off Minimum

· Tremont Waters - $1,489,065 – restricted free agent – Two-Way

Dead Money – 2 players

· Demetrius Jackson - $92,857

· Guerschon Yabusele - $1,039,080

Projected Exceptions

· Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception - $9,536,000 (will be reduced to Taxpayer MLE at $5,890,000 if Boston goes over Tax Apron)

· Bi-Annual Exception - $3,732,000 (will be removed if Boston goes over Tax Apron)

· Gordon Hayward Traded Player Exception - $11,050,000 – expires in early-August

· Enes Kanter Traded Player Exception - $4,767,000 – expires in early-August

· Vincent Poirier Traded Player Exception - $343,873 – expires in early-August

· Jeff Teague Traded Player Exception - $370,564 – expires 3/25/22

· Daniel Theis Traded Player Exception - $5,000,000 – expires 3/25/22

· Kemba Walker Traded Player Exception - $6,879,100 – expires 6/18/22

(Note: Traded Player Exceptions can only be used to acquire a player via trade or off waivers. They cannot be aggregated together or with outgoing player salary.)

2021-22 Salary Cap/Luxury Tax Projections

· Projected Salary Cap - $112,414,000

· Projected Luxury Tax - $136,606,000

· Projected Tax Apron (Hard Cap) - $143,095,840

Celtics Salary Cap Picture

· All inclusive (with cap holds) - $162,421,882 - $50,007,882 over the cap

· Under contract only - $128,674,574 - $16,260,574 over the cap

· Guaranteed contracts only - $126,115,205 - $13,701,205 over the cap

Celtics Luxury Tax Picture

· Under contract only - $128,674,574 - $7,931,426 under the tax

· Guaranteed contracts only - $126,115,205 - $10,490,795 under the tax

Celtics Tax Apron (Hard Cap) Picture

· Under contract only - $128,674,574 - $14,421,266 under the apron

· Guaranteed contracts only - $126,115,205 - $16,980,635 under the apron

Dates to Watch

· 7/23/21 - 8/8/21 – Summer Olympics – Jayson Tatum will play for Team USA as they look to bring home the gold

· 7/29/21 – 2021 NBA Draft – Boston picks at #45 in the second round

· 7/31/21 – Jabari Parker’s contract becomes $100,000 guaranteed

· 8/1/21 – Qualifying offer deadline for Tacko Fall and Tremont Waters. If no qualifying offer is tendered, both will become unrestricted free agents

· 8/2/21 6:00 PM ET – Free agent negotiations can begin

· 8/6/21 12:00 PM ET – Contracts and trades can be made official

· Early-August (date TBD) – Traded Player Exceptions for Gordon Hayward, Enes Kanter and Vincent Poirier expire

· 8/8/21 - 8/17/21 – NBA Summer League (Las Vegas)

· 9/28/21 – Training camps open

· 10/18/21 – Deadline to sign Robert Williams III to a contract extension

· 10/19/21 – Opening Night for 2021-22 NBA season

· 10/31/21 – Deadline to pick up 2022-23 Rookie Scale Team Options for Romeo Langford, Aaron Nesmith, Payton Pritchard and Grant Williams

My comments: Use link to see pictures and read the comments at the bottom.

Just read a Forsberg article on this same subject matter. His perspective is interesting. I can't copy and save from my phone, but I expect it's easy enough to find if anybody is interested. The same with "Judging Smart On Efficiency Is a Lazy Exercise", published in SBNATION , under the byline of Michael Pierce on July 4.

jrleftfoot wrote:Just read a Forsberg article on this same subject matter. His perspective is interesting. I can't copy and save from my phone, but I expect it's easy enough to find if anybody is interested. The same with "Judging Smart On Efficiency Is a Lazy Exercise", published in SBNATION , under the byline of Michael Pierce on July 4.

I assume you mean this article by Forsberg: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/why-celtics-likely-wont-sign-lonzo-ball-other-top-free-agent-targets

After reading it I am also having less and less hopes we could get someone really good this summer.

The most glaring need right now that absolutely needs to be addressed before camp is at PG for me. And since apparently we cannot afford any good quality starters there, someone like Satoransky as suggested by Forsberg makes a lot of sense to me. He is a big PG and does not play bad defense either.

We have the usual gap at 4, but we need to address the starting PG situation with a veteran guard first imo.

Superb post Gyso. Clock is ticking for Brad to make TPE moves.

Here's the article:

Forsberg: The challenge C's face in signing a quality free agent

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/why-celtics-likely-wont-sign-lonzo-ball-other-top-free-agent-targets

With NBA roster building, where there’s a will there’s a way -- or at least a collective bargaining agreement loophole to aid the cause.

But the sobering reality for the Boston Celtics this summer is that they are extremely limited in means of signing outside talent and the CBA conspires against them at most turns, meaning the green are likely to be spectators when it comes to available free agents.

As we previously detailed, Boston doesn’t have any particularly easy avenues to adding impact talent this offseason. Unless a veteran player is willing to sign a sweetheart of a deal to play for the $6 million taxpayer midlevel exception, then Boston will largely be left hunting under-contract players that might be available via the trade market utilizing on-roster talent (Tristan Thompson’s $9.7 million contract) or trade exceptions (including the $11 million left on Gordon Hayward’s TPE).

We know what you’re thinking: C’mon, nerd. Teams find ways to add big-name free agents every year despite these obstacles. Drum up some sign-and-trade scenarios and deliver Lonzo Ball to Boston’s backcourt.

The Celtics cannot take back a player in any sign-and-trade this summer without triggering a hard cap that would limit them to spending to the tax apron (roughly $139 million). Boston cannot exceed that number at any point during the season after receiving a player via sign-and-trade.

That’s problematic, not only because the Celtics already have $123 million in guaranteed salary on their books -- that’s before potentially re-signing unrestricted free agent Evan Fournier -- but also because it could hinder Boston in pursuit of a third star should a desirable player become available during the 2021-22 season.

If the Celtics' primary goal is to maintain as much flexibility as possible in pursuit of that next star to pair with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, then it’s critical to preserve all options to ingest a bulky contract.

Not much green to spend

Total value of Celtics' current guaranteed contracts $123M
NBA tax apron $139M

But let’s just go down the Ball wormhole since Celtics fans are largely obsessed with him filling the point guard void after Kemba Walker’s departure (understandably so because of his age and skill set). Ball could command a salary somewhere around $20 million per season and bringing him to Boston would invoke the hard cap, providing obstacle No. 1 (that’s if Ball even wanted to consider Boston and New Orleans was a willing facilitator).

The Celtics cannot absorb Ball into any trade exceptions and would need to send out salary to match. But there’s a new complicating factor: The artist formally known as base year compensation. Long story short, the NBA previously put safeguards in place to prevent over-the-cap teams from signing free agents to inflated salaries in order to facilitate trades. While base year compensation was erased from the 2011 CBA, it lives on in scenarios like this.

The Pelicans, as an over-the-cap team, can only take back roughly $13 million in salary because Ball’s outgoing value is the greater of 50 percent of his new deal (so roughly $10 million) or his previous salary ($11 million). So, the two sides would need to get a third team involved to make the trade math work.

Is that nerdy enough for you?

In this instance, the Celtics likely are forced to send out someone like Marcus Smart and don’t have the remaining resources to sign Fournier without juggling the hard cap. Essentially, there are almost certainly too many obstacles to adding a high-price tag player via sign-and-trade, especially younger players who are set for a large pay spike that invoke base year compensation.

Since that isn’t a particularly easy path, let’s downshift and try to find a free-agent player on a more reasonable number who Boston could absorb into the Hayward trade exception.

Let's say the Celtics want to bring home Kelly Olynyk. He wants a salary north of the $6 million taxpayer MLE but is content at $11 million per year. Boston’s only avenue to adding him -- at least without sending out salary and draft capital because we’re guessing the Rockets don’t desire Tristan Thompson -- is to absorb Olynyk’s new deal with the Hayward exception.

So the Celtics are adding an $11 million salary and triggering the hard cap while still having to figure out what happens with Fournier. If they can move Thompson -- without splurging too much on draft capital that could be vital for future star pursuits -- then that’s somewhat tenable. But it’s about Boston’s only big summer swing and adds the hard cap nuisance for the next calendar year.

That's why we previously pitched the idea of chasing someone like Tomas Satoransky in Chicago. It’s certainly not the sort of big splash that fans crave but he’s under contract at a digestible number and allows for increased flexibility moving forward without the hard cap.

The Celtics could chase anyone under that $11 million figure but the more desirable names might require utilizing prime draft capital, which isn’t ideal if Boston needs future first-rounders to chase a third star.

So it’s probably a waste of time to daydream about Ball or most of the restricted free agent class (Lauri Markkanen and Duncan Robinson). Don’t spend much time thinking about Kyle Lowry or Mike Conley unless they want to play for much smaller paydays.

The Celtics are going to have to get creative, but that’s far more likely to involve under-contract talent than the 2021 free-agent class. This team simply cannot afford a free-agent splurge. And, more importantly, it cannot afford more obstacles in the quest to add a legitimate third star.

Just a couple quick thoughts/opinions:

1.  If the Celtics owners and management allow themselves to be hard capped, that is their way of saying they don't believe the team can be contenders.  I do not believe they will allow themselves to be hard capped, so there will be no sign-and-trades, no non-taxpayer's MLE and no BAE.  All trade options will require the player(s) coming to the Celtics to already be under contract.

2. The new coach already said the team would be built around the two J's and he then mentioned Smart as a foundational piece.

In his presser, Udoka repeatedly referred to the Js as "two pillars".  That sounds like any rumors that have Jaylen being moved are probably overblown.

And then:

Chris Forsberg @ChrisForsberg_
about 15 minutes ago
Ime Udoka with high praise for Marcus Smart, including calling him a foundational piece, during a chat with @ZoandBertrand.

That tells me one thing, Marcus Smart will be the starting point guard.  There is no need to overspend to fill that position.  Smart, [player acquired in a trade], Pritchard and Mader and should be enough.  The player acquired in a trade (Tomas Satoransky~ish) could be the spot starter, first guard off the bench, that sort of thing.

3.  The Celtics sign Evan Fournier.  There is no easier way to add that kind of talent under the salary cap rules.  So in no particular order, there is our starting 1, 2, 3 & 4:  Smart, Jaylen, Jason and Evan.

4.  The Celtics trade Thompson.  They go with Horford, Rob W and Moses at the 5.  I don't have a preference as to who starts, but either Rob or Horford.

I believe the Celtics will be luxury tax payers this season.  The Celtics may be the third team in trades, using their TPEs, Thompson and other players in the process.

Lots of guessing. It will be fun to see how it plays out.

If AN and RL are going to be in the mix you do not need to add another wing.

EF will not get a big offer in FA.  Celts can match or fold.

MS will be on the team and TT will not.  His expiring contract has value.  

Big decisions down the road.  Resign MS? Resign RW3.  Celts need to retain as much financial flexibility as possible to address these 2 players.

I am thinking that a starting 5 of Smart, Fournier, the Js and Al will be quite fine. The rotation then likely gets filled by PP, Langford, Nesmith and RWill.

My only issue with this rotation is that we don't have enough physicality at 4. To compensate for that, our wings have to develop into dynamic attacking players. Unfortunately, we may be a year away from that.

Jabari Parker is a very risky reclamation project. If he pans out: great. What if he does not?

My wish is to add Kyle Lowry but it does not seem feasible right now.

I am just not excited about Satoransky and other such projects.

Who wouldn't like to see Kyle Lowry on our roster for the right price?

worcester wrote:Who wouldn't like to see Kyle Lowry on our roster for the right price?

True. If he accepts a $11M range contract, then we can trade for him in the exception. We also can easily stay below the apron at that price and keep Smart. Then we can't keep EF.

Something much bigger means Smart will have to be traded and we still can't keep EF.