Slice Up The Minutes

Ime will need to have a talk with his players individually about roles and playing time.

The guys likely to see less minutes are GW, RL, EC, CE and BF.  I am assuming JP will be cut and KD will be moved.  So here is my everyday 9 man rotation.  The remaining roster will not have a lot of opportunities to play but injuries and rest (Al Horford for example) will open up some playing time.  Also situational matchups may provide opportunities for the bottom of the bench guys.

JT   34 MPG
JB   34 MPG
MS 30 MPG
DS  28 MPG
JR   28 MPG
RW 25 MPG
AH  20 MPG
PP  20 MPG
AN  20 MPG

The BU PF spot presents an interesting opportunity for 2-way guy Sam Hauser.  I expect him to play a role as a stretch 4.

Dboss is expecting to play a spell….

Hoping Bruno can earn some minutes

dboss wrote:Ime will need to have a talk with his players individually about roles and playing time.

The guys likely to see less minutes are GW, RL, EC, CE and BF.  I am assuming JP will be cut and KD will be moved.  So here is my everyday 9 man rotation.  The remaining roster will not have a lot of opportunities to play but injuries and rest (Al Horford for example) will open up some playing time.  Also situational matchups may provide opportunities for the bottom of the bench guys.

JT   34 MPG
JB   34 MPG
MS 30 MPG
DS  28 MPG
JR   28 MPG
RW 25 MPG
AH  20 MPG
PP  20 MPG
AN  20 MPG

The BU PF spot presents an interesting opportunity for 2-way guy Sam Hauser.  I expect him to play a role as a stretch 4.

Dboss,
What about Kanter (EK)? I think he should get 10-12 min

AK

In general I am in the ball park of the regular season minutes proposed. Except PP. I don't see how PP will get minutes and if he does, DS will not get that many minutes.

So that is the buffer to be distributed between backup 4 and other spots.

sinus007 wrote:

dboss wrote:Ime will need to have a talk with his players individually about roles and playing time.

The guys likely to see less minutes are GW, RL, EC, CE and BF.  I am assuming JP will be cut and KD will be moved.  So here is my everyday 9 man rotation.  The remaining roster will not have a lot of opportunities to play but injuries and rest (Al Horford for example) will open up some playing time.  Also situational matchups may provide opportunities for the bottom of the bench guys.

JT   34 MPG
JB   34 MPG
MS 30 MPG
DS  28 MPG
JR   28 MPG
RW 25 MPG
AH  20 MPG
PP  20 MPG
AN  20 MPG

The BU PF spot presents an interesting opportunity for 2-way guy Sam Hauser.  I expect him to play a role as a stretch 4.

Dboss,
What about Kanter (EK)? I think he should get 10-12 min

AK

Kanter and Bruno will be competing for those minutes, what I noticed in SL is Bruno has more speed and mobility than I thought. He can clog the lane, challenge/block shots, these are things Kanter has a problem with. Bruno also has some ferocity with those hops and can dunk/finish in traffic, he’s raw, but I think there is something there that can be developed.

bobheckler wrote:Dboss,

When I add up your players' minutes it comes to 239.  There are 240 minutes in a regulation game.  That means you only left 1mpg available to be divided between players 10-15 (not including 2-ways).  In an 82 game season that means 6 players are dividing up 82 minutes amongst themselves.

Furthermore, you have RW and AH combining for 45mpg.  That leaves 3mpg, over 82 games, where there are no bigs and the tallest player on the floor would be Jayson Tatum at 6'8" (more or less).


Bob


.

I left 1 minute for Grant Williams.  Players are going to get injured, catch Covid, have games off and off games.  The remaining guys will fill in those inevitable. Opportunities.  JT by the way is at least 6' 9".

The Celtics do not need a 12 man rotation. I see a solid 9 man rotation and situational substitutions.  In other words more than 9 guys may play when they are needed.  RW and overpaid AH will feast on most of the center minutes.  Double big lineups may afford Kanter a chance to play with AH.  Rw may play with AH as well.

The most talented players are the ones to get playing time.  The most talented players are part of my 9 man rotation.  I see no good reason to concern ourselves with finding playing time for the bottom 3rd of this roster.  There will be a lot of DNP's.  Guys will be active today and inactive tomorrow.  Everybody is not going to be happy with their playing time. This ain't no family.  Everybody will not make it to the dinner table.

prakash wrote:In general I am in the ball park of the regular season minutes proposed.  Except PP.  I don't see how PP will get minutes and if he does, DS will not get that many minutes.

So that is the buffer to be distributed between backup 4 and other spots.

Minutes for PP are the hardest to carve out.  I think he will get time off the ball playing alongside MA and DS.  The 20 minutes  are not all PG minutes.

PP and AN have to get quality minutes because they can make 3 point shots.  MS, DS and JR are all suspect 3 point shooters.  

Our best defenders and our best offensive players are all in our 9 man rotation.

Ktron wrote:Dboss is expecting to play a spell….

Don't be a smart ass!  

A tighter 9-man rotation is expected in the playoffs, but that will (normally) be expanded out to 10-12-14 players in the regular season.  Especially with a new coach being given the opportunity to cobble together a roster with such a range of experience and talent.  He will want to test all the players to see how they mix and match, both with teammates and with the other team's players.  The regular season is basically a long training camp for the playoffs, with the final tight playoff rotation being decided towards the end of March - early April.

Estimating minutes per game as such is usually a failure because it doesn't consider games off for load management or injuries, garbage time, etc.  Minutes per game estimates often show bias by the author due to their personal likes and dislikes, with some players being left off the list entirely when surely those very players will pick up hundreds of minutes during the regular season (Kanter?).

Minutes per game is such a snapshot of a singular event, where total minutes in a season takes into account the grind of a 82 game season.  I have seen this very process debated for over a dozen seasons on this board, always with the same result; minutes per "unit time" should have a number next to every single player on the roster, even the 2-way player(s).  Final minutes per game is nothing but the minutes per season, divided by 82.

I don't understand why it would be any different this time.  Maybe the guys that understand this concept have left the building.  

[quote="bobheckler"]

Ktron wrote:Dboss is expecting to play a spell….

ktron,

There's a minute he can steal from Grant.


Bob


.[/quote) He’s already suited up and ready.

dboss wrote:

Ktron wrote:Dboss is expecting to play a spell….

Don't be a smart ass!  

Just trying to help a brother out.

gyso wrote:A tighter 9-man rotation is expected in the playoffs, but that will (normally) be expanded out to 10-12-14 players in the regular season.  Especially with a new coach being given the opportunity to cobble together a roster with such a range of experience and talent.  He will want to test all the players to see how they mix and match, both with teammates and with the other team's players.  The regular season is basically a long training camp for the playoffs, with the final tight playoff rotation being decided towards the end of March - early April.

Estimating minutes per game as such is usually a failure because it doesn't consider games off for load management or injuries, garbage time, etc.  Minutes per game estimates often show bias by the author due to their personal likes and dislikes, with some players being left off the list entirely when surely those very players will pick up hundreds of minutes during the regular season (Kanter?).

Minutes per game is such a snapshot of a singular event, where total minutes in a season takes into account the grind of a 82 game season.  I have seen this very process debated for over a dozen seasons on this board, always with the same result; minutes per "unit time" should have a number next to every single player on the roster, even the 2-way player(s).  Final minutes per game is nothing but the minutes per season, divided by 82.

I don't understand why it would be any different this time.  Maybe the guys that understand this concept have left the building.  

Gyso

I get it.  I know more than 9 guys will play.  I said as much.  

Guys will get banged up, catch Delta, need a game off in B2B situations, game situations and matchups, etc. 

I like the MPG over looking at total minutes.  MPG is hardly a snapshot.  We all can do the math but why? we always talk about how many minutes a guy is getting.  It is not like you have ever said he has played 296 minutes, he needs to play 396 minutes.

Anybody and everybody knows what 30 MPG is unless they do not know how to tell time.

Ktron wrote:

dboss wrote:

Ktron wrote:Dboss is expecting to play a spell….

Don't be a smart ass!  

Just trying to help a brother out.

This brother needs all the help he can get.

I plan to roll out a Zoom in about a month and I think we should have lots of stuff to talk about.

dboss wrote:

gyso wrote:A tighter 9-man rotation is expected in the playoffs, but that will (normally) be expanded out to 10-12-14 players in the regular season.  Especially with a new coach being given the opportunity to cobble together a roster with such a range of experience and talent.  He will want to test all the players to see how they mix and match, both with teammates and with the other team's players.  The regular season is basically a long training camp for the playoffs, with the final tight playoff rotation being decided towards the end of March - early April.

Estimating minutes per game as such is usually a failure because it doesn't consider games off for load management or injuries, garbage time, etc.  Minutes per game estimates often show bias by the author due to their personal likes and dislikes, with some players being left off the list entirely when surely those very players will pick up hundreds of minutes during the regular season (Kanter?).

Minutes per game is such a snapshot of a singular event, where total minutes in a season takes into account the grind of a 82 game season.  I have seen this very process debated for over a dozen seasons on this board, always with the same result; minutes per "unit time" should have a number next to every single player on the roster, even the 2-way player(s).  Final minutes per game is nothing but the minutes per season, divided by 82.

I don't understand why it would be any different this time.  Maybe the guys that understand this concept have left the building.  

Gyso

I get it.  I know more than 9 guys will play.  I said as much.  

Guys will get banged up, catch Delta, need a game off in B2B situations, game situations and matchups, etc. 

I like the MPG over looking at total minutes.  MPG is hardly a snapshot.  We all can do the math but why? we always talk about how many minutes a guy is getting.  It is not like you have ever said he has played 296 minutes, he needs to play 396 minutes.

Anybody and everybody knows what 30 MPG is unless they do not know how to tell time.

dboss,

You do the math because it gives a clearer view of who is going to play and how much they are going to play.  Giving 8 guys all the minutes like you did in your example is more like NBA 2K stuff.

I'll do the math for just one position, Center.  The plan is to divide one position worth of minutes across one season.  48 minutes times 82 games equals 3936 total minutes.

The candidates are: Horford, RWill, Kanter and fan fave small ball center GWill.

Horford averaged over 2000 minutes per season for the last 6 or so seasons, not counting last season, when he was sent home to drink beer and watch tank games.  You gave him 20 minutes per game.  20 m/g x 82 games = 1640 minutes per season.  Sure, that number is believable because Horford is getting older and we want to develop RWill.  I will assign Horford 1636 minutes, because it makes the math easier.  (3936 - 1636 = 2300 minutes left for centers)

RWill's played 283, then 388 and then 782 minutes in each season he has played.  You gave him 25 minutes per game.  25 m/g x 82 games = 2050 minutes per season.  That's quite a leap from 782.  I don't believe he will make that leap.  Maybe he will double his minutes, that sounds a little far-fetched, but I will run with it.  Double his minutes comes up to 1564, but I'll round down for him.  I will assign 1500 minutes for RWill.  (2300 - 1500 = 800 minutes left for centers)

Kanter played 982 minutes for us in 2019-2020.  Other than that season, he has played 1758 and 1768 minutes per season for Portland, then played over 16K, 18K and 15K minutes the previous three seasons.  There are only 800 minutes left for centers, our hope is that he plays as few minutes as possible, but it won't be zero.  For this exercise, I  will assign 600 minutes for Kanter.  (800 - 600 = 200 minutes left for centers)

GWill played 1043 and then 1138 minutes per season so far.  Some of that was at small ball center.  I will assign the last 200 minutes to GWill.

1636 + 1500 + 600 + 200 = 3936.  So far so good, but that didn't include any minutes for Bruno Fernando.  We don't need that guy, so he gets zero.  (LOL)

Lets do the math:

Horford:  1636 / 82 = 19.95 minutes per game.  
RWill:      1500 / 82 = 18.26 minutes per game.
Kanter:    600 / 82 = 7.32 minutes per game.
GWill:      200 / 82 = 2.44 minutes per game (at center).

You left GWill entirely off your initial list but did mention Sam Hauser.  My guess is that GWill will play at least 1000 minutes this season and Houser will be eating lots of good Maine lobster.  Coaches seem to appreciate him more than fans, I guess. 1000 minutes per season divided by 82 games = 12.2 minutes per game.

So there you go, start with making a scientific guess at how many minutes each player will play in a season.  Use historical data and mix in some realistic expectations to arrive at your minutes per season for each player.  Divide that number by 82 to arrive at your estimated minute per game for each player.

That's why there should be a number next to every single player on the roster, even poor Bruno.  

Now the other four positions need to be worked out.  I don't plan to do the math, but I'll end this with the minutes you assigned to Tatum, Brown and Smart.

Tatum and Brown:  34 minutes per game times 82 games = 2788 minutes per season.  Tatum has gotten close to that number in the past but Brown has not.
Smart:  30 minutes per game times 82 games = 2460 minutes per season.  He won't reach that number, he keeps getting hurt while he racks up Tommy points.

Yeah, and that 30MPG thing that everyone knows.  That's a simple number.  Until you consider a 82 game season.  30MPG for all 82 games?  Or is it for only 60 games?  Or somewhere in between?  Missed games drive the average down.  You don't seem to take that into account by randomly giving your favorite players all the minutes in a game and leaving out the other half of the team.

Gyso if GWill has same game and avgs more minutes than Bruno, we have a problem. GWill should not be playing the 5 for obvious reasons.

Cow,

Like I said, coaches seem to appreciate GWill more than the fans do.

I think the real problem is for those that think RWill is going to make a leap in minutes for the entire season, all while playing at the top of his game.

TBH, I got halfway through the exercise above before I realized I had left Bruno off the list of centers. Maybe Bruno gets some of RWill's minutes, because thinking the Timelord can double his minutes this season is a bridge to far.

I am adding 14 mpg across the board for RL, GW, EK plus 10 mpg for CE and BF.  Sam HAUSER will get 16 mpg.

Who got left off, Dunn or Parker.  Pickem

dboss wrote:

Ktron wrote:

dboss wrote:

Ktron wrote:Dboss is expecting to play a spell….

Don't be a smart ass!  

Just trying to help a brother out.

This brother needs all the help he can get.

I plan to roll out a Zoom in about a month and I think we should have lots of stuff to talk about.

yessir and everyone here has plenty of advance notice. Be there or be square. #imaoldhead

gyso wrote:Cow,

Like I said, coaches seem to appreciate GWill more than the fans do.  

I think the real problem is for those that think RWill is going to make a leap in minutes for the entire season, all while playing at the top of his game.

TBH, I got halfway through the exercise above before I realized I had left Bruno off the list of centers.  Maybe Bruno gets some of RWill's minutes, because thinking the Timelord can double his minutes this season is a bridge to far.

Agreed his history backs up your analysis and Al is gonna take a few games off too, thus Kanter and Bruno should get some play.

These numbers could all get blown out of the water if a couple of players end up playing so well that you cannot keep them on the bench. Nesmith and Pritchard for instance, Bruno is another.
I have to say that I see a trade at some point combining Dunn, Grant Williams, and maybe Edwards, for someone, anyone. I believe Williams time on the Celtics is short lived.

RosalieTCeltics wrote:These numbers could all get blown out of the water if a couple of players end up playing so well that you cannot keep them on the bench.  Nesmith and Pritchard for instance, Bruno is another.
I have to say that I see a trade at some point combining Dunn, Grant Williams, and maybe Edwards, for someone, anyone.   I believe Williams time on the Celtics is short lived.

Rooting for those 3 and my eye test shows they are ascending players that can help us. Sadly Grant has had plenty of time to show us he can’t play. Grant should have been in the NFL as a lineman.