Cracking the Starting Lineup(s)

Training camp and preseason may reveal what our lineups will look like going into the season.  Before that happens, I want to jump start the conversation.  The lineups I am presenting are not based on which one I think is best.  We are likely to see multiple starting lineups throughout the year.

Lineup # 1

Jayson, Jaylen RWIII, Josh Richardson and Marcus Smart

I think this lineup would be our best defensive lineup.  All 5 guys are very good defensive players.   What I do not like about this lineup is the uncertainty  of being able to score.  Boston needs to get off to quicker starts  and I do not see enough shooting from this lineup.  This teams needs a reliable 3rd shooter  but this lineup does not have one.  Josh at the SG position does not shoot the ball very well.  We all hope that his decline in 3 point accuracy was just a case of a bad fit on 2 different teams but the more likely reason may be his questionable skill level in an area that continues to see the bar raised even higher.  The Celtics want Marcus to pass more and shoot less but he will often be the only guy open and he has to take those open looks when other options have been exhausted.  But he is a bad shooter no matter how many 3 point shots that he makes.  

Lineup # 2

JT, JB, JR, MS and Al Horford instead of Robert Williams.

With AH in the lineup you get the pick and pop option that can help open things up.  Al took 5+ 3 point attempts last year while shooting a respectable (for a center) 36.8%.  You gain more perimeter shooting with him in the lineup but defensively, including rebounding that lineup would not be as good.  The offensive efficiency should also be considered.  Al has experienced a sharp decline in his overall FG percentage since he left Boston (53.5% the last year in Boston) and now back to back years of only 45%.  What does that tell you about his offensive efficiency?  Larry Bird once said that as players get older they turn into jump shooters.  It looks like he is scoring less inside in the post area and taking more perimeter 3 pointers.  An argument could be made that it is okay, we need his floor stretching ability.

Lineup #3

JT, JB, MS, AH and RW

This line up moves JB back to the off guard position and Jayson back to Small Forward.  It would seem that a two center lineup could provide a high low offense with Al playing up top.  This lineup would work if Boston is playing against a team that starts two bigs like the Bucks for example.  The first thing that comes to mind on offense is having Al play away from the basket however, this past year revealed how good RW plays up top with the offense flowing through him.  The solution.   Let them switch back and forth.    This lineup still lacks that 3rd killer shooter from deep.

Lineup #4

JT, JB, MS, RW and Aaron Nesmith

This lineup has great potential because 2nd year guy, AN, could be that 3rd perimeter shooter that is missing from the other lineups mentioned.  Although he finished the year on the upswing and shot a solid 37% from deep, getting a starting nod has a lot more responsibilities.  Josh Richardson is an experienced veteran and an above average defender.  Josh is going to get you 12 PPG at least and he should mesh well alongside the other starters.  AN has a long way to go and a lot of work to do to get better.  Nevertheless he is a guard/wing option that could fit well in a situation where he is not counted on to be a primary scorer or ball handler.  Like Josh, Aaron will get open looks so it is just a matter of knocking down those opportunities.

Lineup # 5

Same as #4 except AH replaced Williams.  That lineup would give us 4 outside shooters and a primary playmaker in Marcus.  Defensively it would not be our best lineup.

Lineup #6

JT, JB, MS, RW and DS
Has a focus on ball handling with both Marcus and Dennis starting in the backcourt and also a strong on the ball defensive unit but with less size.  The issue of having that 3rd outside shooter does not go away.  However Schroder is a better all around scorer than Josh so I think a stronger offensive unit.

Lineup #7

Same as # 6 except AH starts instead of Robert Williams.  An uptick on offense but a downtick on defense.  Robert is a legit rim protector.  

Lineup # 8

PP, JB, AN, JT and AH

This would be your top offensive lineup.  All 5 players can make 3 pointers.  This  starting lineup lacks defensive coverage at the point and at the rim but I can see a lineup like this being used during a game to blow it open.

Lineup #9

Same as # 8 but RW replaces AH.  Defensively it would be better than #8 because Rob will defend the rim.

lineup #10

JB, JT, MS, RW and surprise, surprise, Hermangomez at PF.  

Lineup #11

Same as #10 except AH starts at center


As you can see there are many different variations of 5 players that could be in the starting lineup.  These are just some of them.

Now for my prediction.  A 3rd star will emerge on the team this year.  His name is Robert Williams III

Good summarization. I was a little surprised you didn't get to PP until the 7th lineup, but that's not a quibble, just an observation.

Based on everything we have read and know, I think the first three lineups you put together are the ones we will actually see, and in that order in terms of frequency. I would expect those to hold well into the season barring something unforeseen, such as an injury or surprising emergence of a reserve player.

Hi,
My favorite is #3. It's very balanced on both offense and defense.

AK

AH (not AH for Al Horford), again too many initials! It may make it easier to type, but it does not make it easier to read.

WC out!

You indicated that the “3rd star” emerging will be Robert Williams. Are you saying he’ll be a “star” on the same level as Brown and Tatum? If not, please expound.

On RWill, I have him as our X factor, we would all love to see him be durable enough to do that. If he could avg 27-30 mpg, I could see him avg 14 points with 12 rpg too. Those would be Clint Capella like numbers, with RWill probably getting even more blocks.

If he could develop a 16 ft midrange jump shot and hit 2 or 3 game, he could go up to 18 points a game. Capella still has no semblance of that shot, call me nuts, I think RWill can get/develop that shot.

Agreed with the X Factor.  Hope he got to the gym this summer and added some more muscle.  How 'bout he comes back physically looking like Embiid?!! That would put the fear of God in the old folks home up there in Brooklyn!!  

db

Ktron wrote:You indicated that the “3rd star” emerging will be Robert Williams. Are you saying he’ll be a “star” on the same level as Brown and Tatum? If not, please expound.  

I think he can be our 3rd best player.

jrleftfoot wrote:Good summarization. I was a little surprised you didn't get to PP until the 7th lineup, but that's not a quibble, just an observation.

When the Celtics added Schroder, my thoughts were that Pritchard would see less time running the point.  He is a legit shooter and therefore his role may be less of a run the offense guy.  

We could see him paired with either Smart or Schroder.

He could become a key scoring threat off the bench.  As his experience and PG skills get better, he may earn the starting PG position.  That is an up the road consideration.

dboss wrote:

jrleftfoot wrote:Good summarization. I was a little surprised you didn't get to PP until the 7th lineup, but that's not a quibble, just an observation.

When the Celtics added Schroder, my thoughts were that Pritchard would see less time running the point.  He is a legit shooter and therefore his role may be less of a run the offense guy.  

We could see him paired with either Smart or Schroder.

He could become a key scoring threat off the bench.  As his experience and PG skills get better, he may earn the starting PG position.  That is an up the road consideration.

+1

dboss wrote:

Ktron wrote:You indicated that the “3rd star” emerging will be Robert Williams. Are you saying he’ll be a “star” on the same level as Brown and Tatum? If not, please expound.  

I think he can be our 3rd best player.

No doubt. Let’s hope he stays healthy.

I think Boston only plays 4 preseason games.

Ime does not have a lot of time to get this team playing together.

Training camp is short as is the preseason.  Under those circumstances, we should expect Ime to experiment with different lineups into the regular season. We really do not know much about him do we?

Yesterday, Ime discussed playing 2 centers together. That brings lineup #3 into focus with Smart, Brown Tatum, RW and Al Horford.

We will see probably 50-60 different lineups in the game over the course of a full season. But certainly not that many starting lineups.

We will get our first look on Monday, maybe.

Al states he feels as good as he has ever felt.

Offensively he can play the 4.  Defense at the 4 is the unknown for me.

Ime probably has his top 9-10 players identified (if we can do it so can he).  He probably will want to get them game reps in the 4 preseason games in a couple of different combinations, combinations he expects to be using throughout the season and especially in the first handful of regular season games.  He wants/needs those 9-10 to be very clear on their roles and be fluid in their execution of them and he wants them to be ready and focused on our specific opponents for the first few weeks of the season at least so he'll be having those combinations/units on the floor competing during the pre-season games.  Everybody from 11-down has the luxury of time, they don't need to be ready to go on Opening night.

In no particular order:
Smart
Tatum
Brown
Horford
RWilliams
Schroder
Richardson
Pritchard
Nesmith
Kanter

Juancho and Grant may get some spot minutes early on for the 11th and 12th spot.  Injuries, matchups and how well they assimilate into what Ime wants to do will increase or decrease their regular minutes.  Ime wants to play fast.  That would fit in well with a rim runner like Hernangomez and maybe not so much with a halfcourt player like Grant (although, having lost 15# so he can play more 4 and less smallball 5, Grant might surprise us with his mobility this year).  Everybody from there on down (e.g. Romeo, Bruno, Parker) will be watching.  I think there is a possibility that Parker doesn't make the cut, despite being cheaper than cheap, because I cannot see him being assigned to Maine and without those game reps I don't see how Ime will feel confident putting him in.  Barterer Brad never seems to sleep.  Romeo will take Bruno to the best burger joints in Portland.


Bob


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Sounds to me like Al is in great shape, I think Your lineup with him starting is the one that will, at least for the first part of the year, be the one that will they will go with. The rest is pretty set I think. Al would love to be playing the 4, which would also put RWII in the starting lineup.

It may be a "by team" decision, no set starters, which would make sense too. With so many options, it is a whole different world out there on the floor. Schroeder is saying all the right things right now (not minding coming off the bench), I see Richardson as a 6th man, PP right behind him, but, if Neismith becomes reliable, there will be lots of different lineups that could be on the floor.

Funny...having this kind of a problem is really interesting

Based upon Schroder's performances through 4 games it's looking like lineup #6 would work well.


Bob


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You left before the fireworks last night Bob!!! What a great finish

RosalieTCeltics wrote:You left before the fireworks last night Bob!!! What a great finish

Rosalie,

I know!! Couldn't make it past 4am, however, and I knew it. I felt a little ridiculous, I mean, there were only 12 more minutes of playing time left in regulation (and nobody expects OT after 3 quarters). I suppose I could have stuck around but I needed my beauty sleep.

I knew they were in good hands, though. You were there.


Bob


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bobheckler wrote:Based upon Schroder's performances through 4 games it's looking like lineup #6 would work well.


Bob


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Lineup #6 was an option and it worked out well because you had 2 very good on the ball defenders and 1 of the PG shot the ball and scored at a high level.

I do not think that is an everyday starting lineup but it could be a closeout lineup depending on circumstances and at the very least a lineup that we will see during the game.

I still prefer a single center lineup plus 3 wings and a PG. There are a lot of options. I am still waiting for that 3rd big who can established himself as an everyday rotation guy. I think that 3rd big needs to be primarily a solid defender and rebounder. No big on the team fits that description. If we had one of those type of players, a double big lineup would not be problematic.