Countdown to Celtics camp: Is Boston's offense good enough to compete?

https://us.yahoo.com/sports/countdown-celtics-camp-bostons-offense-142125770.html


Countdown to Celtics camp: Is Boston's offense good enough to compete?



Chris Forsberg
Wed, September 22, 2021, 5:21 PM



If there’s one thing about the 2021-22 Boston Celtics that we can predict with confidence it’s that defense will be the team's calling card.

After a rare outlier season in which Boston slipped to 13th in the NBA in defensive rating, Brad Stevens seemingly made it a point to revamp that side of the ball in his first summer as president of basketball operations. Stevens hired a defensive-minded coach in Ime Udoka, splurged to re-sign defensive quarterback Marcus Smart, banked on Robert Williams staying healthy as a backline force, and acquired defensive-minded players including Josh Richardson and Al Horford.

The Celtics have the potential to roll out some incredibly stingy lineups, especially if Smart reverts back to his All-Defense form and Williams stays healthy. The Celtics should be the sort of gritty bunch that Stevens has always desired, and defense should give them a chance to compete most nights.


The question as camp nears: Will the offense be good enough to make Boston a legitimate contender?

It feels somewhat odd to suggest that the biggest question mark about a team with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown as its pillars is the offense. But there are fair questions about the offensive consistency of the players around them. What’s more, Tatum and Brown need to make their own strides as playmakers who more consistently elevate the level of each other and their supporting cast.

The departures of Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier take away key scoring potential on this team, though there’s an argument to be made that neither was available enough last season to truly declare that Boston’s offense will slide back without them. Still, the Celtics are thin on shooting, as well as the sort of third option who can definitively take stress off the Jays.


Here’s the encouraging news: The quartet of Smart, Tatum, Brown, and Williams played 411 possessions together last season and, while their net rating was a measly plus-0.2, they did average a robust 118 points per 100 possessions, which ranked in the 84th percentile among all high-volume lineups, according to Cleaning the Glass data.

The primary fifth man in those groups, however, was Walker. And if you want to blame him for the group allowing an unsightly 120.3 points per 100 possessions then you have to give him credit for helping the offense thrive (122.3 offensive rating in 220 possessions). It’s unclear if Boston can maintain that sort of offensive output without him, nor is it a guarantee the seesaw tips on the defensive end by simply subbing in another player.

Can Boston find a fifth starter that can consistently knock down jumpers and take advantage of the attention that the Jays will draw? Can Smart quarterback the first-unit offense and get the team to perform with more consistency than we saw last season? Who is able to elevate their scoring output on the nights that Tatum or Brown don’t have it?


Udoka needled his new boss at his introductory press conference noting the team has to improve its assist rate after finishing 27th in assist percentage (55.6) last season. Boston was 26th at 55.7 the year before.

That reflects back on Tatum and Brown and their need to elevate their playmaking. They’ve both pledged to improve there. But it’s a two-way street. They can pass out of double teams all they want but others have to make shots.

Having Dennis Schroder fall into the team’s lap could provide a much-needed offensive jolt. Schroder will play big minutes and get every opportunity to quarterback reserve groups. Boston’s bench played with great efficiency last season but their output was often inconsistent. A second-unit overhaul should help with Boston now able to lean on more veteran players including Horford, Enes Kanter, and Juancho Hernangomez.

An elite defense could take pressure off the offense, too, all while creating more transition opportunities. But when you’re competing with teams like the Nets and Bucks, scoring is essential.

The tipping point

Celtics' win % in games scoring 110 points or fewer - 14.3


Here’s a rudimentary little exercise that we occasionally come back to: Can the Celtics consistently score above 110 points? Twenty-eight times last season they did not and Boston was 4-24 in those games. If you pencil in Tatum and Brown for 55 points (which would be 4 points north of their combined season average a year ago), can you confidently get 55 points from the rest of the group? Sometimes you can convince yourself it’s an easy task, other times we wonder if getting to 100 might be a chore.

Some officiating tweaks could benefit defensive-minded teams this season. Maybe these ballooning offensive ratings will come back to Earth a bit by not rewarding non-basketball moves in the hunt for offensive fouls, as well as allowing defenders to be a bit more physical.

But the Celtics absolutely have to find a way to re-embrace ball movement and creating for each other. The number of isolation plays has to come down. Tatum and Brown have to crank up their assist numbers and the supporting cast has to take advantage of the attention they draw.

The Celtics owned the 10th best offensive rating last season but it didn’t always feel like it. Sometimes the offense looked like a juggernaut and, too often, it came to a painful halt.

The defense should be there; can the offense live up to its end of the bargain?


Bob
MY NOTE:  One of the reasons why we lost so often when we didn't score 110 points is that our defense didn't hold them under 110 points.  What would our win/loss record @ 110 points have been if our defense was as good as the 2019-2020 season? And as far as the inconsistency of our offense goes, how about games missed by Kemba and Tatum and Brown? Maybe that has something to do with it?

A little deeper dive, 2020-2021 (Combined FG% for multiple players is not weighted by their fgas):

Guards........................................mpg........fg%........fgas/gm........3pt%........3ptfgas/gm.......apg.......TOpg.......ppg
Evan Fournier (with Boston)---------29.5------44.8------10.8-----------46.3--------5.9--------------3.1------1.2-------13.0
Kemba Walker------------------------31.8------42.0------15.7-----------36.0--------8.2--------------4.9------2.0-------19.3
Outbound Scoring--------------------61.3------43.4------26.5-----------41.2--------14.1-------------8.0-----3.2--------32.3


Dennis Schroder---------------------32.1-------43.7------12.5-----------33.5--------3.5--------------5.8------2.7-------15.4
Josh Richardson---------------------30.3-------42.7------10.5-----------33.0--------4.5--------------2.6------1.3-------12.1
Inbound Scoring---------------------62.4-------43.5------23.0-----------33.3--------8.0--------------8.4------4.0-------27.5


Centers......................................mpg........fg%........fgas/gm........3pt%........3ptfgas/gm.......apg.......TOpg.......ppg
Daniel Theis-------------------------25.0------52.2------7.7-------------28.1-------2.5---------------1.8------1.1-------10.0
Luke Kornet-------------------------14.1------47.3------4.1-------------25.0-------2.0---------------1.1-------.3--------4.4
Outbound Scoring------------------29.1------49.8------11.8------------26.5-------2.25--------------2.9------.7--------14.4


Al Horford--------------------------27.9-------45.0------12.9------------36.8-------5.4---------------3.4------1.0-------14.2
Enes Kanter------------------------24.4-------60.4------7.8-------------N/A--------N/A---------------1.2------.7--------11.2
Inbound Scoring-------------------52.3-------52.7------20.7------------36.8-------5.4---------------4.6------1.7-------25.4

Net = Inbound (27.5+25.4=52.9ppg) - Outbound (32.3+14.4= 46.7ppg) = +6.2ppg.  We lose on 3pt fgas and 3pt fg%, but we gain just about everywhere else.  Overall FG% are comparable for the guards but much better for incoming centers vs outgoing.  Our rebounding, with Al and Enes, will be night-and-day better than with Theis and Kornet.  Neither Kornet nor Kanter shine with their defense but Al is comparable to Theis.  With the guards, of course, our defense has really improved.  Schroder isn't a bad defender, and he has something to prove.  Richardson is a good defender.  Fournier and Kemba are not good defenders.  Our offensive rebounding with Kanter is going to go through the roof, and that makes me very happy (while his matador defense will make me manic depressive).

Nesmith will be shooting better.  Pritchard will do well also.  I think the fears about our offense might be overblown.  Numerically, at least, we look ok.  We got rid of Kemba's high-volume, low-efficiency offense and upgraded our efficient center offense.


.

Hi,
I'd put quite a few chips, offense-wise, on Pritchard and Nesmith. It looks like they can shoot, especially from afar.

AK