NBA ratings deep-dive: Where does the league stand?

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2023/04/nba-ratings-viewership-past-30-years-analysis-where-league-stands/



NBA ratings deep-dive: Where does the league stand?


by Jon Lewis 3 months ago


Much has been written about NBA ratings the past few years, but where does the league truly stand?

The 2022-23 NBA regular season averaged 1.59 million viewers across ABC, ESPN and TNT, down slightly in viewership from last season (1.61M). Contextualizing those numbers is a choose-your-own adventure game.

If one is looking for the most unflattering interpretation, this season ranks among the least-watched of the past 30 years — ahead of the two COVID-shortened seasons of 2019-20 (1.55M) and 2020-21 (1.36M) and two years of the league’s mid-2000s lull (2002-03: 1.58M; 2006-07 1.52M). That the past four seasons rank among the six least-watched, even with the addition of out-of-home viewing to Nielsen’s estimates, cannot be brushed aside.

Even so, it is also true that the NBA’s audience has been remarkably durable over the past two decades. Even with the out-of-home caveat, there are few properties that could average more viewers in 2023 than in 2003, especially considering that nearly 40 million fewer viewers were watching primetime television this season than 20 years ago (2002-03: 102.9M; 2022-23: 63.8M).


The NBA viewership timeline

When trying to make an argument that NBA viewing is not just down, but actively tanking, the common comparison is to the Michael Jordan era. Understandably so, as viewership is down close to half from the Jordan-era peak in the 1995-96 season (2.99M). Yet nearly all of the league’s drop-off in viewership post-Jordan happened more than two decades ago.




The post-Jordan slide

It is somewhat ironic that the the most-watched NBA regular season of the past 30 years was the 1998-99 lockout campaign, a low-scoring 50-game slog that began in February and did not include the recently-retired Jordan. Games on NBC, TNT and TBS averaged 3.1 million viewers that year. (There is an easy explanation for this; NBC games no doubt made up a larger portion of the league’s reduced sample size that year.)

The dropoff began immediately afterward in 1999-2000, when viewership fell by a third to 2.1 million, and remained in that range through the rest of the NBC era. When the NBA swapped NBC and TBS for ABC and ESPN in the 2002-03 season, viewership suffered another sharp drop, declining 23% from 2.06 million in 2001-02 to 1.58 million. No wonder David Stern was so sensitive to Rudy Martzke’s criticism of the deal in USA Today. Viewership has stayed around that level ever since, with some notable exceptions.

Over the 20-plus years of the current rights deal, NBA viewership has ranged within a narrow band of 1.5 to 1.9 million viewers, with the exception of five seasons. One was the 2020-21 COVID-shortened season, a mostly-fanless 72-game campaign in which viewership bottomed out at fewer than 1.4 million. The others came in a four-year stretch when viewership reached Jordan-era levels.


The “Heatles” era

By the time LeBron James joined the Miami Heat in 2010, attention to his free agency had reached critical mass. “The Decision” — the nearly 13-year-old TV special that made James the most polarizing athlete in America to this very day — averaged nearly ten million viewers, and in mid-July no less.

That massive interest carried into the NBA season. Viewership jumped 35% from 1.85 million in 2009-10 to 2.51 million in the 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons, nearly matching Jordan’s final two years with the Bulls (1996-97: 2.62M; 1997-98: 2.64M) despite far fewer games airing on broadcast television.

Even when viewership dipped in James’ final two seasons in Miami, the numbers remained well above the pre-“Decision” average. The 2012-13 season averaged 2.17 million and 2013-14 pulled 1.95 million, figures that remain unmatched in any subsequent season.

There are ultimately nine seasons of the past 30 in which NBA viewership was disproportionately strong — the 1994-95 to 1998-99 seasons, which spanned Jordan’s second run with the Bulls, and James’ time in Miami from 2010-11 to 2013-14. It is no coincidence that most comparisons of NBA viewership are to these two particular eras, as comparisons to other seasons are less dramatic.

For example, viewership in the 2022-23 season declined less than a third (-31%) from 1993-94 (2.29M). Even with the out-of-home caveat, that kind of proximity to 30 years ago — a year in which “Murder She Wrote” ranked among the highest rated primetime shows — is rare in modern television.


NBA viewership in context

The NBA versus the rest of television
It is the case that the rest of television is usually excluded from most discussion of the NBA’s recent ratings slump. NBA viewership may be down by about half from its Jordan-era peak, but the number of viewers watching primetime television is down nearly half from just a decade ago — dropping from 112.9 million during the 2012-13 season to just 63.8 million in the most recent campaign.

Even compared to just five years ago, the drop in primetime viewing is stark — a 35% decline from the 2017-18 season (98.6M). That more-than-doubles the decline in NBA viewership over that span (-16%).



The result of that plunge in primetime viewing is that the NBA’s diminished audience still accounts for a greater and greater share of the audience. NBA games averaged a 3% share during the 2022-23 season, the highest of the past 20 years. It is worth noting that the share is a consolation prize at best; few cited the figure prior to the recent collapse in TV viewing. Nonetheless, the share does indicate that the NBA, and live sports in general, has been largely resilient to the shrinking linear television landscape.


The NBA versus other sports leagues

As far as unflattering comparisons go, the NBA seems to be the most popular control group. When Iowa-Louisville in the NCAA women’s basketball Elite Eight averaged more viewers than any NBA game on ESPN during the regular season, the statistic went viral on social media. Some of this is no doubt a response to the once-common — and flatly unrealistic — claims that the NBA was chasing down the NFL. In that context, such comparisons might simply provide a dose of necessary humility.

Nevertheless, it is worth noting that the NBA continues to outpace its actual competition, which is most assuredly not pro or college football. Major League Baseball games averaged 936,000 viewers across its national partners in 2022 and 760,000 the year before. The NHL regular season is averaging 470,000 this season, up from last year (444K). Men’s college basketball regular season games averaged 371,000 across all networks during 2022-23, compared to 363,000 the year before.

If the perception is that the NBA’s audience is shrinking at a time when other properties are growing, there is certainly some evidence for the claim. If the perception is that the NBA is losing these head-to-head comparisons, that is another story — at least if one is comparing apples to apples.


Conclusions

The point of this examination is not to argue that the NBA is in a particularly strong position right now. It is hard to imagine that the league wants to be in the same viewership range it was in 20 years ago, when perceptions surrounding the game were perhaps even more negative than they are today, especially given the contribution from out-of-home viewing that did not exist back then. With that said, the NBA’s current viewership situation is frankly par for the course for the league in the post-Jordan era and to no small extent unavoidable given the decline in television viewing.

It may be cold comfort that the league has been in far worse situations before — the 16% decline from 2017-18 to the current season pales in comparison to the 49% plunge from 1998-99 to 2002-03 or even the 26% drop from the 2001-02 to 2006-07 — but that does not make it any less true. It is not exactly saying much that the league is outdrawing baseball, hockey and college basketball, but again that does not make it any less true.

The reality is that the league’s downturn is both real and exaggerated. The NBA may not be faring as well as five, ten or certainly 25 years ago, but it is faring far better than what seems to be the popular perception.


Dr. Jon Lewis (aka Paulsen) has been covering the sports media industry on a daily basis since 2006 as the founder and main writer of Sports Media Watch. You can contact him here or on the Sports Media Watch Twitter page.


Bob
MY NOTE:  Unfortunately, for technical reasons, I cannot copy-and-paste the charts/diagrams here.  If you feel they'd provide a lot of context to the text you can click on the link at the top of the post and read the original article, as usual.


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Once again we are reminded what a truly great impact MJ had on the NBA and America.

I love the NBA. I love MJ.

Do not forget, Larry Bird and Magic Johnson saved the NBA, and when it was time, passed the baton to Jordan.

What a nice article to read during the basketball summer doldrums. Just the facts, ma'am. A pleasant diversion away from the language of divisiveness that we often see across the internets.

Yes...Larry and Magic saved the NBA. MJ revitalized it and LeBron helped ratings too.

The NBA has been a force for good in America.

So, why are the contracts of borderline players so ridiculous? The claim is television money, especially. I wonder, are teams selling out of their tickets on a nightly basis? God knows they are reaping the harvest when it comes to sales of clothing. Television and the NBA cannot be in too much trouble. Expansion is coming, $300 million dollar contracts to guys playing a game.....Be still my heart. Bill Russell must have died scratching is head wondering why he was born so early in the league development.!! I know I am scratching mine. During the Miami series I had the audacity of checking the price of tickets in the area where I sit at times when I go to a game.........$1500.00, for one seat. I will say, where does it stop? Companies paying ridiculous money for advertising/ Sorry, I only worry about the day it all comes tumbling down.

Well, Rosalie, this article explains the rash of ideas like the Play-In Tournament and now the mid-season tournament. Do nothing and the league dies a slow and merciless death, so you come up with crazy ideas like these that to us old timers sound ridiculous and wastes of time. Just play the dang game, we say.

Same reason companies create new lines and don't just stick with the tried and true that got them where they are. Sometimes, new lines work and actually surpass the original, especially in the food/drink world.

I have one question. As far as my viewership counting, I record all my games and watch them later, maybe the next day and if the Celtics lose, I have recorded it but delete it, so I never actually watch it. How do they account for all my shenanigans there? Are they only accounting for actually live viewership, but if they are, and I know I'm not the only one doing these things, how do they know whether I've watched a game or not and/or when?

db

Dbrown, I record games myself, but mostly big ones, or when I am going out. Alot of times I rewatch games, especially Christmas, or other big games. Hey, with this writer and actor strike I will record more because I will be bored silly!!!

Interesting article. I’ve had the same thought as you Rosalie, over how underpaid Bill Russell was for transforming the game…I don’t have cable or League Pass, but for the last few seasons I’ve watched games streamed by at least one reliable site. I wonder how many others are watching like this and if they are counted..? Hurry up preseason! hawk

My son lives in another town, does not have cable, but, shhhh, he uses my code to access! if not on ESPN OR TNT, he uses it to stream to his computer. I would not pay for league pass, have a sports package because my husband insists on watching the military channel, so they find a way of putting it on a sports package and i pay for that. Cable getting so out of control I know at some point I will cut it way back. If you read the articles after Russell died, he was not worth the money that these kids today are worth, no where near it. Rather sad

The League and their “tournaments” are indeed desperate measures.
The danger can come when you extend the line and thats what the NBA is doing with these mid season tournaments.

Line extensions are tempting for companies, in this case the NBA as a way to leverage an existing popular brand.
However, if the brand name has become near generic so that consumers consider the product and the name one and the same, line extension is not a good idea.

Its like the Life Savers candy. To consumers, the brand name is synonymous with the hard round candy with the hole in the middle.
The company later introduced a Life Savers chewing gum.
The use of the Life Savers name was not consistent with the consumers view of it  and the Life Savers Gum brand failed.

They later came out with Bubble Yum.
this product was a very successful because the product had a different name from the hard candy. It also had the advantage of being the first soft bubble gum.

The league introducing the Play in has proven to be a success because it’s consistent with what the NBA does every year with the playoffs.
The name may differ somewhat but it’s still viewed as being synonymous with the the NBA Playoffs.

The NBA season tournament is something new that is going to take place close to the beginning of the season where regular season games are normally just a part of the season ramping up.

The NBA has never had anything called a tournament and never has handed out team trophy’s outside of championships.
This concept is a departure far from what’s familiar to NBA consumers.

It may very well work but there is a good chance that it could end up like Life Savers chewing gum.
The NBA has to be careful of line extensions that are a departure from viewer/consumer expectations.

As for Russell being underpaid. Not really.
You have to remember what kind of revenue was generated during the NBA seasons when Russ and Wilt and Oscar played.
Russ and Wilt were the highest paid players based on their talent and the revenue that the league generated,
Remember back then, front row tickets were $5.50.
TV games were aired on Sunday..sometimes.
Most games were heard on radio.

Is the results of what Russell delivered worth more than 100k.
Yes, to us it is.
Yes to us if todays role player is making 12 mill per year, Russ and company were underpaid.

The role player is being paid what he is worth in todays NBA based on the revenue generated.

It seems unfair but its the reality of business.

Wilt was paid $100,000. Russ was paid $100,001.

Which equates to $1,030,773.65 for Wilt and $1,030,774.65 for Russ in todays money.

Gimme dat!!!