Celtics vs Cavs Round 2

I might as well start the prognostications.

The value of having the homecourt advantage does not always play out favorably but in the Cavs/Magic series all of the Cavs 4 wins were in Cleveland.

The Celtics went 2-1 this year vs the Cavs. Their only loss was the first game of a road trip in March.

If you recall that was a very aggravating performance by the Celtics. Not only did they squander a 16 point lead going into the 4th (87-71) but they still had a chance to win at the end. This was a game that I found fault with CJ for not calling a timeout with 19 seconds remaining. JT walked the ball up the court, played with his food and then dribbled to the right side for a jumper that he missed.

I am sure that the Cavs will remember that they outscored Boston in the 4th QTR 34-17. One of the interesting things about the game was the torrid from deep shooting by the Cavs. They went 20-42. And let us not forget Ward Cleaver. He went 8/11 and 6/9 from deep for 23 points AND he put them up by a point with a dunk. Gosh Wally!

You guys must know that I am just having some fun here. His name is really Dean Wade. Do not expect to see him on the scouting report. He has been ruled out indefinitely with a bum knee.

Cleveland is a solid defensive team and DM is a legit bigtime scorer. He averaged 30 this game against us but only played in 2 games. I guess we did a better job on him this year because last year he averaged 37 PPG in 4 games against us.

The strength of their defense is rooted in having a legit shot blocking and rebounding center in Allen and a long athletic PF in Mobley who is also a solid defender blocking shots and rebounding the basketball. Their backcourt is dynamic with Mitchell and Garland being their 1,2 punch and the everyday 5th starter is Max Strus. There heavy minute rotation guys include Caris LeVert SG, Isaac Okoro SF and George Niang SF/PF.

The Celtics will need to up their game as the Cavs are better than the Heat. Allen missed 3 games in the Magic series with sore ribs on his left side. Therefore the Celtics should sharpen up the elbows while practicing pokem in the ribs drills. Look for the Celtics to exploit Garland. JT will likely be at the 4 (mobley) Jrue, White and Brown can take turns on Mitchel. Al will be taxed trying to keep Allen off the glass if Allen plays. Kornet will be elevated to our BU center but do not be surprised if CJ starts him and brings AH off the bench. hmmm. We need SH and PP to play with poise and shoot the ball well. Depending on the circumstances CJ could play other guys like Brissett in spot duty. Tillman could also see some rotation minutes. If Queta plays it would probably be a break glass situation. (Poor center play, foul trouble, etc. etc.)

I am very confident that the Celtics will win this series. Maybe in 5.

Donovan Mitchell is a force to be reckoned with, no doubt. However, I have watched him self explode (aka Russell Westbrook). And try to take over games single handedly. Maybe he has learned from losing, (I hope not). LeVert and Garland can be dangerous shooters. This is not a team to screw around with. Do no let them start feeling good about themselves early. I hope this time off has included a few film reviews of them being embarrassed in Cleveland that last time. We have the horses, even with KP hurt, to win. I sure wish he was going to be around, but they can do it, but they cannot be lax or they will find themselves in the same position as Denver, down one game. I love our backcourt and believe they will be a force out there, so the two J’s can do their job. By the way, did you see that they practiced free throw shooting to “boo;s” being played thru the gym? Pretty funny, but they are obviously concerned about the missed freet throws

Rosalie

JB has been awful at the line and JT is struggling a bit.  Maybe he should cut out that new hitch that he added.

I'm sticking with my guns here.  Every team can get hot on us, but it will only be for one game and that's if you catch us with our pants down.  I bet Coach Joe has issued to and inspected each player their belts and suspenders and both are firmly buckled and attached respectively.  

I'm also pretty confident Joe has given the keys to the kingdom to Jrue and has been told (actually I'm going to predict with great accuracy that Jrue has told everyone this first) that his assignment is DM.  What Jrue is going to do with that assignment is make him look like KD in our BKN series, probably worse.  KD was reduced to a shell of his former self in that series.  Jrue is better than Marcus.  Jrue will occasionally need some help but I'm going to go with very little.  Since there will be no Dame Time which was why we got Jrue in the first place, Lillard has now been replaced with DM as a warm up act.  I expect a fully operational death star performance from Jrue to be played out to complete exhaustion on/for poor DM.  The sad thing is is once DM figures it our that he ain't scoring in this series, their Plan B will not be able to get off the ground because all our players beyond being great scorers are great defenders.  CLE's supporting cast is not that good.  And that should just about wrap it up.  It's time to show strength.  

I'm with dboss on this one on the length but we'll reverse our previous round predictions.  Celtics in 4.  I want to seek permission to include a built-in break-game just in case we get bored and take the foot off the gas or they go apeshit from 3-ville for a game, but to me this looks like another version of MIA just ever so slightly better, but possibly worse.  It depends on how DM reacts to being shutdown play after play with just one guy guarding him.  Nah, keep it at Boston in 4.  

Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.  We're through being punched in the face.  MIA picked up that one allotted token.  CLE's going to get the brunt.

KP gets the same amount of rest regardless of how long we have to play.  This series will be about how much rest the rest of the team can get before the ECF and Finals if we are so blessed.

Boston, don't let it go to your heads.  (BOS -11.5 and that's probably a bit light.) Take care of business, get this over in 4 and enjoy another week off.  

db

https://theathletic.com/5470712/2024/05/06/celtics-cavaliers-preview-kristaps-porzingis-jarrett-allen-injured/?source=freedailyemail&campaign=601983&userId=13921316



Celtics-Cavaliers preview: With Kristaps Porziņģis, Jarrett Allen injured how do teams matchup?


By Jay King and Jared Weiss
5h ago



Before it became clear the Boston Celtics would meet the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round, Derrick White was asked to give a scouting report on the Cavaliers and Orlando Magic.

“Um, they’re both good,” White said.

If that’s not enough of a preview for Boston’s second-round series against Cleveland, which begins Tuesday at TD Garden, The Athletic’s Celtics writers Jay King and Jared Weiss broke it down a little more in-depth after another high-scoring performance from Donovan Mitchell knocked out the Magic on Sunday.


What makes the Cavs dangerous?

King: The Cavaliers have had a strange season. They ran into some potential trouble early in the year when Darius Garland and Evan Mobley missed extended time at once, but surged without the two starters. From the middle of December until the All-Star break, Cleveland played some of the league’s best basketball, going 23-5 with a dominant plus-11.5 net rating. Garland and Mobley returned before the end of that run, but the Cavaliers discovered a winning formula before they did. Mitchell ran the show, Jarrett Allen held it down inside and their teammates spaced the court and fired away.

Things haven’t gone so smoothly since. The Cavaliers finished the regular season on a 12-17 spiral with the 20th-ranked offense and 25th-ranked defense during that stretch. It didn’t help that Mitchell missed many of those games, but Cleveland dealt with other issues, including the imperfect fit between its two starting big men, Mobley and Allen. The midseason stretch looms as proof the Cavaliers can touch a high level when at their best, but, after struggling mightily to score against Orlando, what are the odds they can truly challenge Boston?

Weiss: Cleveland winning the series without Allen was impressive. It wasn’t like the Kristaps Porziņģis situation where Boston was facing a depleted team, as Orlando is tough and talented, if flawed offensively. Cleveland had to earn it. And they did that with Allen missing the last three games of the series with a rib injury and former Celtics Marcus Morris and Tristan Thompson in the rotation. Winning with that bench in 2024 is a feat unto itself.

It might be Cleveland’s defensive depth that hurts them. Allen couldn’t make it back for Game 7, so will he be ready for Game 1 48 hours later? Everyone in their bench rotation at the moment is someone Boston can target with ease. How will Cleveland put together good defensive units if Allen is out, especially with Celtics killer Dean Wade also out with a right knee sprain? Mobley looked allergic to making contact on screens, so Boston’s defensive personnel should be able to stay on Mitchell and Garland. It seems like Cleveland is too depleted to handle Boston’s offensive versatility, even without Porziņģis.


How do the Celtics deal with missing Kristaps Porziņģis?

King: The Porziņģis absence will hurt the Celtics, of course, but this could be an OK series to be without him. Al Horford can space out the Cavaliers’ big men and make it tough for them to protect the rim. (A healthy Porziņģis could, too, but he doesn’t spend as much time spotting up on the perimeter as Horford does.) As gifted as Mobley and Allen are defensively, Cleveland has some weaknesses on that end of the court, including a lack of size in the backcourt. That could make things extremely difficult for them against all of Boston’s big guards and wings, especially if Horford can occupy Allen (assuming he returns).

Behind Horford, the Celtics will likely give Luke Kornet the first chance at backup minutes, though Joe Mazzulla could also consider Xavier Tillman in that spot. I could be crazy, but I don’t think a lineup with Tatum at center is totally out of the question, either. Though it would put the Celtics at a size disadvantage, Allen would likely have problems trying to keep up with nothing but perimeter players.

Weiss: Especially if Allen plays, Kornet seems the likely choice. Boston went with him as the backup center in their prior matchups, and his length is paramount in countering Cleveland’s aerial threat. Cleveland could hurt Boston on the glass, so they’ll need his length there just to ensure they finish off possessions well. Since Cleveland has small guards, Boston’s matchup hunting in the post would be very effective. But can they get Cleveland to switch without Porziņģis out there? That will be tough to pull off.


How does Boston handle the Garland-Mitchell backcourt?

King: Boston’s game plan against the Cavaliers should begin with trying to limit the impact of their dynamic backcourt in Mitchell and Garland. Though our own Joe Vardon wrote a great story on Garland’s recent lack of scoring aggression, he can control a game with either his scoring or playmaking. Mitchell was delivering one of the best seasons of any guard this season before he got injured after the All-Star break. Together, they are a lot to deal with. They put a lot of pressure on a defense.

Cleveland still wasn’t able to score consistently against the Magic, an elite defensive team, but that doesn’t mean Mitchell and Garland will remain quiet. The Celtics will need to be on high alert against those guys.

Weiss: Jrue Holiday on Garland just seems like a huge advantage for Boston. Holiday’s ability to disrupt a player’s rhythm and body them up throughout a series is as good as it gets in the league. Since Jaylen Brown seems to often guard his friend, Mitchell, White will spend much of his night chasing Max Strus around. Cleveland can bother Boston with its rim running and rebounding (or Wade turning into Klay Thompson), but Boston matches up so well against Cleveland’s backcourt.

A bonus: Boston can switch and still maintain good matchups, while Horford will probably be more helpful in containing Cleveland’s guards than Porziņģis would be. But if Garland and Mitchell can get to the paint and force Horford to drop closer to the rim, they can start feasting on pull-up 3s or kick-outs to Strus.


Who can the Celtics target?

Weiss: The irony of the Magic series is that Orlando started to come back against Cleveland by having Franz Wagner attack Mobley in isolation. Since Mobley is one of the most imposing defenders in the NBA, it didn’t make sense at first. But with Orlando in a small lineup, they were able to space the floor well while Mobley would let Wagner get to the free-throw line before the Magic wing would start his actual attack. Paolo Banchero was able to muscle through him as well to get Mobley deep in the paint and then use fakes to get Mobley in the air for fouls.

It looked a lot like the kind of moves Tatum uses when he has those same clearout opportunities. While a lot of Brown’s package wouldn’t work against Mobley, since the Cavs defender can take away a lot of those fadeaways and quick pull-ups, Tatum’s ability to shoulder his way across the paint and finish with a finger roll makes him the ideal person for this matchup.

If Allen is coming off the bench or at least playing hurt, it will be easier for Boston to get Mobley involved in pick-and-rolls and then get him switched onto Tatum. Most importantly, getting Mobley up near the point of attack more when Allen is off the floor gives Boston so much room to attack behind him. Mobley is generally a nightmare defender for most players, but Tatum can still score on him with his strength better than almost anyone in the league.

King: The Cavaliers ranked seventh in defensive efficiency, but will have some matchup problems in the second round. In their starting lineup, I expect Boston to try picking on Garland, who knows where to be but will be outmatched physically at 6-foot-1, 192 pounds. Even White and Holiday will have a significant size advantages against him, never mind Tatum and Brown if Garland gets stuck on them in switches.

The Celtics found some success going at Miami’s smaller defenders, including Tyler Herro, and can be lethal when they have a matchup to hunt. Against Cleveland, Boston should have a few.


Who is the X-factor?

King: White might be past the “X-factor” stage at this point, but if he sustains his play from the first round, I just don’t know what opponents will do against the Celtics. He shot 47.7 percent on 3-pointers while attempting nearly nine per game. He averaged 22.4 points per game on an efficient 74.3 percent true shooting. And he did all of that while providing his usual elite defense. Tatum and Brown are tough enough to defend anyway. When White scores as much as he did against Miami, the Celtics can burn any sort of defensive coverage.

Weiss: White is much closer to a bonafide star than he is an X-factor at this point of his career, but this Celtics team is so stacked with talent that anyone can be considered an X-factor. Horford is the guy and it’s not just that he has to hold this whole thing together without Porziņģis. It will be easy for Horford to make good decisions on the ball or execute Boston’s defensive coverages. The real questions: Can he take advantage of the clean looks Cleveland will yield on the pick-and-pop? And can he defend above the rim to prevent Allen and Mobley from dunking all over Boston?


Bob


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The Celtics will open the 2nd round on Tuesday and should be well rested to play against the Cavs who only had a day off.  The rest part is really about recovery from all the bumps and bruises sustained against the Heat.  

Prep time would include reviewing the 3 regular season contests as well as the 7 game sample size vs the Magic and notes taken during he Heat series.

The two things that were established in round 1 for Boston was #1 playing defense at a high level and #2 finding ways to thwart the zone defenses and other gimmicks that Miami used.  

Our offense only looked bad when we did not move the ball and execute very basic actions.  

The Celtics were quick to recognize matchup opportunities.  The Cavs have similar limitations on defense because they have a small backcourt.   Darius Garland will be the main whipping boy when he is on the court.  However the Celtics should avoid a heavy dependency on ISO basketball especially when there is no real advantage to do so.

When the ball is popping for us on offense we score easier.

Look for Jayson Tatum to find redemption after what was a subpar performance on offense against Miami.  And the March 5th loss to the Cavs has to be on his mind.  Nothing like an incentive or two to bring out the best in you.

The Celtics will miss KP's work on the glass and his defensive presence blocking shots  The next man up viability will be put to the test.

Celtics will establish themselves in game 1.  The Celtics need to play with better pace on offense and set the standard immediately by being fully engaged at the defensive end.