POST GAME ATLANTA

Cow,

When the seedings are set and they've had at least a couple of games with the same center. Ray's probably in better shape that anyone else on the team. Actually, the big men run more miles (end line to end line) than the small men (perimeter to perimeter). Ray needs rhythm more than rest.

Yes, I know the playoffs are a grind. That's why they need to go into the first round with the best possible chemistry.

Sam

How does one tell whether its a lousy pick or tired legs?

swish

swish good point, I think its both

Usually with good shooters, when they cannot get the proper elevation for their shot they begin missing their shots. That equates out to tired legs.

112288

Ray may not be getting open looks because the Celtics aren't holding their screens, but I think it's more complex than that.

First off, Ray needs the smallest gap of anyone in the league in order to get off his shot "uncontested." There may be someone arriving (or even arrived), but if Ray has, say, a 0.25 second advantage, he can rise and use his quick release to get off the shot without being affected by the defender. He's the best in the business at it. But like anyone, he has preferred spots on the floor, and he'll shoot best if he receives the ball at the right time and in one of his preferred locations.

The next factor to consider is how complicated and screen-reliant the Celtics offense is. They run sophisticated sets with five or six screens on the same play, and Ray frequently gets his perimeter shot after running through a double or staggered screen, as shown on the NBA Playbook site (http://nbaplaybook.com/2011/03/15/the-clipboard-awards-march-13th-%E2%80%93-celtics/#more-12081).

Every team uses screens, but against most shooting guards, a defender can give "normal" effort to get through the screen or rely on the screener's man hedging (stepping into the path of the player coming around the screen) to slow his man down. But against Ray, you frequently see his defender almost in panic mode pursuing Ray because the defender knows hedging doesn't work against multiple screens and Ray needs the barest of gaps to get his shot off. As shown in the video on the nbaplaybook.com page I linked to above, his defender frequently runs over the top of the final double screen in a last-ditch attempt to meet Ray at his preferred spot on the wing.

The point I want to make is that the Celtics' offense is so dependent on screens, far more than most teams, that incorporating new players will be difficult to do at this point in the season (they need repetitions in practice), and the result may be screens that aren't set properly (late or in the wrong spot). Because there are so many screens, a player frequently has to set multiple screens within a few seconds, and that could lead to a player not holding his first screen properly because he knows he has to get to his next screen assignment.

Look at the Celtic play on this page http://nbaplaybook.com/2011/03/31/the-clipboard-awards-march-28th-29th-%E2%80%93-76ers-celtics-bobcats/. There are five screens in five seconds (between 0:03 and 0:08 on the video):

1. Davis on Rondo's man at the top of the key
2. At the same time, Green on Ray's man in the far corner
3 and 4. Davis and Krstic, double screen for Ray
5. Krstic to free Davis in the corner

This example shows several things:

-- Screen 1 shows a player (Davis) who looks like he doesn't hold his screen. In this case, its really a nuisance screen on Rondo's man, and I think its main purpose is setting up Davis's defender, so Davis leaving "early" might be part of the design, putting his man out of position when he hedges on Rondo. But what I really want to point out here is that it shows a player leaving a screen to get to his next assignment on the play. I think that new players in particular would have a tendency to not hold their screens because they're rushing to the next spot they're supposed to be.

-- Green holds his screen for Ray in the far corner, creating a gap between him and his man. In essence, Green has done his job to free up Ray, because Ray's man has no chance to stop Ray from getting to his spot.

-- Ray's man decides to go around the double screen (rather than over the top), leaving him even further behind Ray. But Davis's man stays up top to defend Ray; if he hadn't, then Ray would've had a wide open jumper. Ray's man eventually shows up, but because Davis's man is also on Ray, Davis is open for the jumper.

-- Krstic holds screen 5 just fine. He doesn't have to go anywhere after this (other than rebound), so there's no need to leave the screen early.

-- It's a whole 'nother thing, but the double screen is a typical example of NBA-condoned moving screens. Krstic and Davis both move more like football blockers than basketball screeners.

All this shows some of the complexity of the Celtics' offense and how much it relies on screens. This means a play can break down if player a) doesn't hold his screen long enough; b) sets the screen late; or c) sets the screen in the wrong spot. Ray is dependent on these screen plays more than anyone else, so he's going to show the effects more than anyone if something breaks down. He may not be open, the timing may be off when he receives the ball, or he may be forced away from his preferred spot. With so many new players (both acquired and returning from injury), the offense is bound to take a hit, particularly Ray's.

Outside

Outside,

I don't know if you do or have coached at some secondary/higher level, but you should.

That's got to be as good a breakdown of the key element to the Celtics offense at this point in time as anyone outside of the coaching staff could provide.

A real eye opener; thanks!

I wasn't aware of this site, outside. Thanks a lot.

In their own biased selection process (THEY get to decide what the best post-timeout plays are, and then award points to them), they have Doc as the best xs-and-os coach in the league.

What's humorous about this is all the posters at BDC who used to claim that Doc was nothing more than a rah-rah coach and Thibs was the brains. Well, now it's looking like they both were.

Tom T is ranked 9th, btw. Perhaps his ranking will come up as his players play together, and with him, over the coming years. Still, when you consider this is his first year with the team he's doing pretty well, ahead of Rick Adelman (who has been with the Rockets for years now) at #11, Jerry Sloan (not a whole season's numbers, true, but his system has been in place forever) at#17, SVG (a lot of new players, but a lot of longtime vets too) at #24 and Keith Smart (a disciple of Nellie's, taking over Nellie's team and running Nellie's playbook) at #28.

SVG is tied with Byron Scott, the new coach of the once-again Cleveland Cadavers and is way behind the new coach of the NJ Nets, Avery Johnson. The Master of Disaster can't draw them up as well as he can grimace them out.

bob

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NYC, thanks for the kind words. I reread my post, and it's a bit disjointed, but it served the purpose of getting some of my ideas across. As for coaching, no, I haven't coached at the high school or college level. I coached youth teams for ages, but I stopped when my boys entered high school. It's mainly a time issue I suppose, and I've devoted most of my "free" time in recent years to boy scouts. I'm content being a parent spectator for now, but that could change once my youngest graduates next year. A friend talked to me about coaching the sophomore team next year, and I said no, but if he takes the job, I might help him out. We'll see. It's a big commitment.

Bob, I have no problem with putting Doc first on the NBA Playbook list (which is for plays out of timeouts), but you're absolutely correct that the rankings are biased, and I wouldn't put too much into where coaches show up on the list. I mainly used it because it served the purposes of the point I wanted to make, did it in a very brief clip, and had a few explanatory still shots to go with it. The site does break down plays like this nicely.

Outside