WHAT IF THE CELTICS DON’T MAKE A MOVE? - INTERESTING TAKE

WHAT IF THE CELTICS DON’T MAKE A MOVE?
By Paul Flannery

Let’s say for the sake of argument that the NBA trade deadline passes on March 15 without the Celtics making a major move. Under that very plausible scenario, they would move forward with their aging core for presumably one last playoff stand. Who knows? Maybe they channel both the 1999 lockout Knicks and their own not-so-distant history by blazing an unexpected path to redemption through the postseason.

That last part may be unlikely, but the chances of team president Danny Ainge standing pat at the deadline rank at least even with pulling off a major move. What then?

As everyone knows, the Celtics will have enough salary cap space to pursue a max free agent with money left over. As everyone also knows, the chances of landing Dwight Howard fall somewhere between slim and none, which leaves Ainge in a quandary.

Does he use that new-found space to pursue lesser free agents or trades and try to stay competitive, or does he hold tight and wait for bigger names to become available down the line? The answer lies somewhere in between. In both his public comments and his actions, Ainge understands that the fastest way to irrelevancy is blowing through cap space on middling free agents. That doesn’t mean, however, that he will just wait for a savior to become available.

The Celtics’ rebuilding process is likely to take several years and will require patience and planning. Here is a highly speculative look at how it would look:

WHAT WOULD BE LEFT

The Celtics have four players under contract for next season: Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, Avery Bradley and JaJuan Johnson. Brandon Bass has a player option for $4.25 million, which is a bargain for a player of his caliber, meaning he’ll likely opt out.

They also have an option on E’Twaun Moore and can make a qualifying offer for Greg Stiemsma, who have both flashed NBA ability and have the advantage of being extremely affordable. Assuming they retain both players, their cap situation looks like this:

Committed salaries with Bass: $35.52 million

Without Bass: $31.27 million

Expected salary cap for 2012-13 season: $58 million (Note: The cap is set after the season, but for the purposes of this exercise, the $58 million figure will do.)

It’s important to remember that the Celtics’ cap space is theoretical. The eight free agents, plus assorted other blasts from the past represent over $95 million in “cap holds.” (See Sham Sports salary page for details).

In order to use that space one of two things have to happen. Either the free agent player signs with another team, or the player’s rights are renounced.

It’s possible that say, Kevin Garnett or Ray Allen could be re-signed for significantly less money. It’s also likely that some players such as Mickael Pietrus or Chris Wilcox may be re-signed. Either way, it would be a surprise if all eight pending free agents had different addresses next season.

(The others: Jermaine O’Neal, Marquis Daniels, Sasha Pavlovic and Keyon Dooling).

THE DRAFT

Barring a complete collapse from the Clippers, the Celtics will have two first round draft picks: Their own and one from the Clips via the Kendrick Perkins trade. While that Clippers pick may not carry the promise of a lottery windfall like it once did, having two picks in what should be a loaded draft is a definite help in the rebuilding process.

The Celtics would have the 15th and 23rd picks in the draft at the moment. Per Draft Express, the 15th-rated prospect is none other than Duke freshman guard Austin Rivers and the 23rd rated prospect is North Carolina freshman forward James McAdoo. Obviously a lot will change between now and the draft, but even picking in the middle and latter part of the first round should yield quality options.

WHAT THE ROSTER MIGHT LOOK LIKE

PG: Rondo, Bradley, Moore
SG: Pietrus*
SF: Pierce, Jeff Green*
PF: Wilcox/Bass*, Johnson
C: Stiemsma

* Anticipated signing

We’ve gone ahead and slotted Pietrus, a returning Jeff Green and either Wilcox or Bass with the two first rounders on a theoretical roster, giving the Celtics 11 players for about $45 million. (Again, that’s very rough estimate).

That’s not enough for a max player, but if Howard goes elsewhere, as expected, there’s no one else besides Nets guard Deron Williams who is worth that kind of money. That’s still plenty of space to add players who can be part of the rebuilding project. The key is not breaking the bank and keeping their options open beyond next summer.

THE FREE AGENT MARKET

The obvious needs are at center and the shooting guard position. The free agent market may be thin in unrestricted free agents but there will be a larger-than normal influx of restricted free agents and they offer some intriguing possibilities.

Centers: Roy Hibbert, JaVale McGee, Brook Lopez, Robin Lopez, Omer Asik
Forwards: Ryan Anderson, Nic Batum, Mareese Speights, Michael Beasley, J.J. Hickson, Jason Thompson
Guards: O.J. Mayo, Eric Gordon, George Hill, Rudy Fernandez

SIGN-AND-TRADES

Garnett and Allen are the key figures here. It’s not out of the question that one or both could return at a reduced salary, but if they decide to go elsewhere, the Celtics could use them in sign-and-trade scenarios that could yield either players or trade exceptions for future use.

Remember, they used the sign-and-trade route to acquire Bass and turned a trade exception for Daniels into Dooling. Everything is an asset in the NBA, including expiring contracts.

TRADES

One of the benefits to having cap space is it allows you to absorb contracts without having to match salary in return. That opens the door to limitless possibilities for Ainge to wheel and deal. Teams below the luxury tax line can also take back 150 percent of player contracts in trades as opposed to 125 for taxpaying teams.

Additionally, Bradley, Johnson and Moore are getting important playing time. All three were unknowns before the season started, and while none of them may be cornerstone players that have more value now than they did when the season began. Add in two more first rounders and Ainge is in a position to begin stockpiling assets for a future move.

LUXURY TAX ADVANTAGES

It’s also worth pointing out that teams below the luxury tax threshold (about $70 million in salaries) have certain advantages, such as access to the bi-annual free agent exception (worth just under $2 million) and either the room exception ($2.5 million) or the non-taxpayer mid-level exception worth $5 million. In December, the Celtics could only offer the taxpayer mid-level worth $3 million.

It gets complicated in a hurry, but the larger point is that the Celtics would go from a tax-strapped, over-the-cap team to one with several new options and possibilities virtually overnight. All of that is why retaining flexibility is so important for the Celtics as they look to rebuild and why Ainge won’t trade his core players just to make a move.

No idea who Paul Flannery is - and what makes him an expert at anything.

I read this article up until this line, then gave up

112288 wrote: As everyone also knows, the chances of landing Dwight Howard fall somewhere between slim and none, which leaves Ainge in a quandary.

Could you imagine Austin Rivers being drafted by, and having to play for, his father's team? Having your father ride you like a rookie, sit you like a rookie and make it clear that there's no nepotism with regard to playing time?

It'd put him somewhere between the 5th and 6th levels of hell.

Quite frankly, I don't see it happening even if we can/do draft him. He won't stay with the team.

bob

.

Rivers is a lottery pick already (not sure who rated him 15th)....and this is before whatever he does in the tourney

He will never be on the board when the Celtics are picking, unless they trade up.

MR,

Flannery is beat reporter for WEEI 850 am and covers the Celtics.

112288

I trust anyone on this board's opinion more than his.

Most of this stuff is pretty well known anyway. Do we make a move now or wait and play out the string with what we got, hope we can get and stay healthy ect ect ect............

But if we don't and perhaps even slip out of the playoff picture we still will have options available after the season.

Pure spectulation on anyones part.

Personally I don't think we make any moves of significance, till after the season is over.

beat

i dunno.

as i said in another thread i think our best chance to improve now- and make us a bit better next season hopefully is use Oneils expiring maybe a couple of the kids (not bradley though) and those 2 first round and 1 second round draft picks we have and use them to see who we could get- at almost any position other than the point of course, who will more easily be able to fit into a style of play more of Rondo's style.

In some ways im looking at those two draft picks in the next draft as almost liabilities.. i mean looky here

Bradley - Steismasma-Moore- Jujuan (pick 15)- (Pick 23) (2nd rounder)

2 things we know about those draft picks, Danny will likely find the best guy still availible at that point in the draft and take him. Doc isnt going to give them much playing time.

Thats seven players with only Bradley likely seeing reguler playing time..

Better to do nothing and see how the scenerio plays out. A lottery pick and expiring contracts would do Boston more good than an eighth seed and quick exit to Chicago or Miami.

MD!

So here we have it.

One guy wants the team to "tank it" so they can make the lottery

MDCelticsFan wrote:Better to do nothing and see how the scenerio plays out. A lottery pick and expiring contracts would do Boston more good than an eighth seed and quick exit to Chicago or Miami.

And the second is still trying to claim Doc doesnt play young players - in spite of the clear evidence from this season which says otherwise.

Doc has given Steimsma, Moore and Johnson extensive playing time over the last few weeks. How is that working out for us?

Matty wrote: Doc isnt going to give them much playing time.

Thats seven players with only Bradley likely seeing reguler playing time..

beat wrote:Most of this stuff is pretty well known anyway. Do we make a move now or wait and play out the string with what we got, hope we can get and stay healthy ect ect ect............

But if we don't and perhaps even slip out of the playoff picture we still will have options available after the season.

Pure spectulation on anyones part.

Personally I don't think we make any moves of significance, till after the season is over.

beat

beat,

Agreed. I think we finish with what we have.

Doubtful there's anything big until the offseason; that's my guess too.

Regards

Austin Rivers will never go into the draft for at least another 2 years. Doc is not stupid and understands the grooming process by playing in college especially for the best college coach in the game. The kid and his family do not need the money which is the motivating factor in kids leaving college to play in the NBA.

Besides having Doc coach the kid, pure disaster if he does. Just like bringing a son or daughter into the family business. Never works out unless it is a special case where the father/mother grow too old to carry on. that is not the case here.

FYI - Skinny on Austin Rivers

Austin Rivers 6-4 SG Duke / Freshman Rivers was considered a potential top overall pick a year ago. But his inability to run the point guard position has been exposed. He has a tendency to become too focused on isolating (tunnel vision) and scoring as opposed to taking what the defense gives him and facilitating for others. A second season at Duke would do him well. Comparison: OJ Mayo Stats: 14.4 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.1 apg Rookie season salary*: $1,696,920 Ranking: 4th Shooting Guard / 5th Freshman

Draft Rankings

Draft Express has Rivers at #15
NBA Draft . Net does not list him
Hoops Hype has him at # 16
Hoops World has him at # 23

112288

QUESTION??

Should we manage to hang on the a low seed (7th or 8th) how many picks different would that be than slipping out of the playoffs. There would be a couple teams in the west with better records that don't get in. And the % of chance for a team with a record that in not anywhere near the bottom 2- 3 has little chance for the top pick. If we are the team with the worst record to make the playoffs I assume that would give us the 15th pick as noted in the article. Missing the playoffs would only improve that by a pick or 2 at best. Or am I missing something?

beat

Yes. There is no way the Celtics will be even close to the bottom of the league....unless they just simply lose on purpose...which no one on this team is going to do.....so forget about it.

They are 12 games better than the last place team in the NBA..and there are 11 teams worse than the Celtics.

So sorry to hear people out here suggesting they throw in the towel. I would expect that on BDC but not here.

Outside of 2 games Steimsma is a bust. He is very poor on rotation defensively and there are too many slam dunks on him. Mind you I understand you have to gain confidence playing, but he looks lost out there. That is why he is not playing except when Doc has a man shortage situation.

Doc is only giving minutes to the rookies when he is forced to because of body count shortage. It is Doc's calling card, he does not play rookies unless forced to.

As far a Moore is concerned, ever since his breakout game in Orlando about 3-4 weeks ago the kid had sat and never left the bench. He has not played meaningful minutes except for a few minutes here or there. They only other time is junk time which he has scored.

For Johnson, again he is getting some minutes now due to body shortage but he is still learning the game and is not up to snuff with defensive rotations.

112288

I do not know why everyone feels like by trading we will not make the playoffs.

By trading, we do not have to toss the season out the window. What if we trade Rondo and get a young(er) functioning Big, and suppose we trade Ray Allen and get a run and gun rabbit like Green last year. We still can make the playoffs and we get in the process a good core of young players for next year.

Most of the mystery of who, what where will be eliminated. You then focus on 2 super stars in the summer.

112288

Hi,
I think that most logical course of action is to keep the team as is or, add a big via trade (for Sasha, MD, ?) as long as this addition doesn't jeopardize Celtics cap space and draft positions. And see if they can do anything in playoffs.
I believe DA has been and is setting the team to get some talent and be a contender again in 2-3 years.

BTW, I don't think that 'trade RR' is going to happen. DA'll trade him only for the equal or better value and, AFAIK, there're only 3 of those and I doubt they will be traded.

AK

112288 wrote:Austin Rivers will never go into the draft for at least another 2 years. Doc is not stupid and understands the grooming process by playing in college especially for the best college coach in the game. The kid and his family do not need the money which is the motivating factor in kids leaving college to play in the NBA.

Besides having Doc coach the kid, pure disaster if he does. Just like bringing a son or daughter into the family business. Never works out unless it is a special case where the father/mother grow too old to carry on. that is not the case here.

FYI - Skinny on Austin Rivers

Austin Rivers 6-4 SG Duke / Freshman Rivers was considered a potential top overall pick a year ago. But his inability to run the point guard position has been exposed. He has a tendency to become too focused on isolating (tunnel vision) and scoring as opposed to taking what the defense gives him and facilitating for others. A second season at Duke would do him well. Comparison: OJ Mayo Stats: 14.4 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.1 apg Rookie season salary*: $1,696,920 Ranking: 4th Shooting Guard / 5th Freshman

Draft Rankings

Draft Express has Rivers at #15
NBA Draft . Net does not list him
Hoops Hype has him at # 16
Hoops World has him at # 23

112288

nbadraft.net ranks Austin Rivers 5th in the 2013 NBA draft.
I assume they feel he will not be in the 2012 draft.

Thanks TJ!

I highly doubt that he will come out even that soon.

I would say maybe after 3rd year if they win NCAA and he only has 2 semesters left.

112288

beat wrote:QUESTION??

Should we manage to hang on the a low seed (7th or 8th) how many picks different would that be than slipping out of the playoffs. There would be a couple teams in the west with better records that don't get in. And the % of chance for a team with a record that in not anywhere near the bottom 2- 3 has little chance for the top pick. If we are the team with the worst record to make the playoffs I assume that would give us the 15th pick as noted in the article. Missing the playoffs would only improve that by a pick or 2 at best. Or am I missing something?

beat

beat,

If Boston finishes 8th in the East, they will almost definitely have the 15th pick of the draft.
If they finish in 9th place, they could be looking at the 10th or 11th pick.
As of today, Cleveland is in 9th place and they would have the 10th pick because many Western teams have a better record then them.
If you or anyone else didn't know, this is how the draft lottery works: I am sure I could find details to copy and paste here, but I will try my best to describe the process.
There are 14 teams in the lottery.
The team with the worst record (Charlotte) gets 14 chances (they used to use ping pong balls, I don't know if they still do.)
Then the team with the 2nd to worst record gets 13 ping pong balls.
This goes all the way down to the best team in the lottery that gets only 1 ball.
So, the team with the best record in the draft has only a 1 in 105 chance of getting the #1 pick. (14+13+12+11+10+9+8+7+6+5+4+3+2+1=105).
As a side note, there is a special provision that the 3 worst teams can only drop 3 spots from where they should be picking.
(If Charlotte finishes with the worst record, they will have no lower then the 4th pick).
They don't want the worst team to get the 13th or 14th pick...
The first ball taken gets the #1 pick.
Then they continue the process for picks 2-14.

mrkleen09 wrote:So here we have it.

One guy wants the team to "tank it" so they can make the lottery

MDCelticsFan wrote:Better to do nothing and see how the scenerio plays out. A lottery pick and expiring contracts would do Boston more good than an eighth seed and quick exit to Chicago or Miami.

And the second is still trying to claim Doc doesnt play young players - in spite of the clear evidence from this season which says otherwise.

Doc has given Steimsma, Moore and Johnson extensive playing time over the last few weeks. How is that working out for us?

Matty wrote: Doc isnt going to give them much playing time.

Thats seven players with only Bradley likely seeing reguler playing time..

and why has Doc given Steimsma, Moore and Johnson more playing time? even for that matter, why have we seen Bradley getting more playing time?

Bass has played in 25 of 32 games 29 minutes a game- 203 minutes lost
J. Oneil has played 25 of 32 games 22;48 minutes a game- 157 minutes 36 seconds lost
Wilcoz has played in 22 out 32 games 16 minutes a game - 160 minutes lost
Rondo has played in 22 of 32 games 36:53 minutes a game - 365:30 lost
Garnet has played in 29 of 32 games 30:48 a game- 91:44 lost
Peirce has played in 29 of 32 games 34:36 minutes a game- 109 minutes
R. Allen has played in 28 of 32 games 33:53 minutes a game- 134.12 lost minutes

thats 44 combined missed games.. 1,220 minutes 22 seconds

Bradley went from 5 minutes last season to 17 this year whie playing in 30 games. And thats having replaced Rondo all 10 times in the starting lineup if im not mistaken. Take out his starts and how many minutes does he play?

Greg s. has played in 25 games, averages 8 minutes a game.. or 200 minutes. Bass wasnt there for more minutes that what greg has played.
Moore- 25 games 9:30 averaged = 232.5 minutes played
Johnson 19 games 9:30 minutes averaged = 176.7 minutes played

Yes Doc this season is playing his younger guys.. to an extent.. and for a reason, injuries.

after a nice preformance from Johnson, Doc said this: "“I guess giving him more time is good. I don’t know why we would think that is good. He’s a good player, but you don’t want to force anybody into minutes. I don’t ever believe that’s good for a guy. The minutes he earns are what he should play all of the time, not the minutes that are there.”

So next season we add a second rounder to the mix, the 23rd pick(ish) and the 15(ish) pick..

again 7 (3 yrs or less expereince) guys on the roster, who many are going to actauly contribute to any great length what we're all hoping for.. #18.

Im not knocking anyone, not the young guys, or Doc.. But im willing to bet that if next season we're healthy other than bradley and maybe the 15(ish) pick the others wouldnt be a reguler nightly part of the rotation.

If this season Oneil was healthy, if Bass, KG, Rondo, Wilcox if they were all healthy as well as the above named vets who;ve missed games, would anyone of these 4 youngsters other than Bradley even see 5 minutes a game?

TJ

totally understand the odds factor my point was basically finishing as the worst playoff team or "just out" would only make a difference of a couple picks but would give us an ever so slim chance of a "higher" pick.

And the draft with the exception of very few players is always a crap shoot anyway. ASK Len Bias's family!! Or any Celtic fan from that era.

beat

So Matty....you are missing the second half of your criticism.....results

You say Doc doesnt play young players. Lets assume that you are right, that he has been forced to play young players this year do to injuries. How are those young players delivering?

If anything, the mediocre play by Steimsma, Moore and Johnson only strengthens my point. The young players on the team are really not ready for prime time - and so Doc's belief that they need to earn their minutes is proving to be correct. These guys have not proven they are ready....the proof is in the pudding.

If next year, Doc has a team full of young players - he will play those who earn their minutes and sit those who do not. Seems right to me...and seems to have worked out for Doc in the past.

Mk,

I agree with 2/3 however Moore played great and then was sat down for about 5-6 games in a row.

I say not fair, that kid can deliver! Let him play!

112288

HERE IS ANOTHER TAKE

RealGM
The Art Of The Managed Blow-Up
By: Elrod Enchilada
Feb 23, 2012 2:08 PM EST

As the Boston Celtics hobble into the All-Star break, the fan base and media covering the team are obsessed with one issue: when and how should Danny Ainge commence the rebuilding operation. It is now clear that the Celtics have almost no chance of winning the 2012 NBA title, unless the basketball world spins off its axis entirely. The Celtics are more likely to win a playoff game or two than an entire series.

That Ainge has been looking to this day has been apparent by his refusal for years now to extend contracts past the 11-12 season, with the exception of Rajon Rondo and Paul Pierce. Even if Ainge stands pat, the Celtics will have room under the cap for a max-contract player. The problem is that of the two possible max contract players available—Dwight Howard and Deron Williams—neither has given the slightest indication that Boston is an option.

The question now is whether Ainge should expedite the process and cash in his aging chips for assets while he still can. This is difficult for fans and the team management because of the strong emotional attachment to the existing stars, who were the foundation of the 2008 championship team: Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and, especially, Paul Pierce. If Ainge is going to deal these guys, especially Pierce, he can’t do it for a bag of dirty laundry.

In a fair world, these guys would all retire as Celtics. But the way the NBA works, if the Celtics follow that path, they increase the chances that the next decade will reprise 1993-2007. And that should greatly scare everyone who follows the Celtics.

By the March 15th trade deadline, we will know whether Ainge has decided to expedite the process. As emotionally painful as it will be in the near term, I think a case can be made that it is the best option if the Celtics want to return to contender status this decade.

This is Why You Do It

An NBA team “blows it up” when it no longer has a reasonable chance to contend, and when with every passing day it is clear the team is going to get worse before it gets better. An NBA team needs at least one top-10 player to be a legitimate contender, and usually two top-end players. That does not guarantee contention or titles; it is just the ante for admission.

Most NBA teams exist in purgatory—they do not have the necessary superstars to contend but they have neither the top draft picks or cap space to put themselves in position to get such a superstar or superstars, who are hard to come by under any circumstances. There is tremendous gravitational pull to keep mediocre NBA teams in this status. To be blunt, barring a number of injuries, there are only a handful of teams that have much of a shot at the 2012 title—Miami, Chicago, Oklahoma City and maybe two or three others. That is the general state of affairs in the NBA.

Really stupid teams in the circumstances of the present Celtics have traded away future No. 1 picks and signed mediocre guys to long-term deals in the long-shot hope that they might squeeze contention out of as team. It almost never works and only puts the team that much deeper in a hole. Danny Ainge, wisely, has studiously avoided that course. He knows the situation.

The Celtics throughout their history under Red Auerbach were always working to get superstars. The way Auerbach got players like Bill Russell, John Havlicek, Dave Cowens and Larry Bird was the work of genius. His last masterpiece was Len Bias.

The Celtics had a terrible interregnum from the early 1990s to 2007. That is the status quo for many NBA teams, and something along those lines will likely be the Celtics future unless the team gets lucky. Danny Ainge’s job is to put the team in the best possible position to get lucky.

Right now, looking at the NBA landscape, it is considerably easier to make a case that the Celtics will be the doormats of the NBA for the balance of this decade than that they will again be legitimate contenders. There are some high peaks in the NBA range—Miami, Chicago, Oklahoma City, the Clippers—far beyond the Celtics at present course. Even the middle-range peaks look awfully high from the valley in our immediate future. Ainge is facing a high degree of difficulty.

This is How You Do It

There are three iron laws for putting yourself in position to get lucky.

First, accumulate No. 1 picks.

Second, do not waste capspace.

Third, do not fear being very bad for as long as it takes. No. 3 has the added advantage of making the No. 1 draft pick much higher than it might be otherwise. It has nothing to do with “tanking.” Guys are playing as hard as they can; they just aren’t that good, because the team’s focus is on the future, not the present.

The downside to all of this is that even a team that scrupulously follows these rules may never succeed. That can be a career-ending recipe for a GM as fans tire of a very bad team with no apparent future after a few seasons. It takes courage, vision and a degree of luck. And it takes fans with vision and an understanding of the process. The Celtics have such fans, if they sense the management knows what it is doing. See the tremendous fan support the Celtics lottery teams of 2006 and 2007 received; fans sensed the team was building to something and they were paid off royally.

So what should Ainge do now?

There are three players who deserve serious consideration for being traded. Two of them will be free agents after the season, and their market value will disappear. The other’s market value will only decline after March 15. The point is to trade them to get future No. 1 picks, promising young players and contracts that expire so as not to tie up cap space.

First: Kevin Garnett. He is in the last year of a deal at around $21 million. Garnett would be a wonderful addition to a team that is in contention. He is a still a tremendous defensive player and a very solid NBA power forward. But the salary is an absolute killer for making a trade work, unless the Celtics are willing to back bad contracts. Even then it is difficult to find much of a deal.

Conclusion: The only deal I see that makes sense for both teams would be to trade Garnett to Cleveland for Antawn Jamison and Cleveland’s top-7 protected No. 1 pick, beginning in 2013. Why does Cleveland do it? They are fighting for a playoff spot, and putting KG next to Varejao would give them a monster interior defense. This could be a team that could make sparks fly. Byron Scott would go nuts to have this defense. A nice way to say thanks to their fans, who have suffered over the past two years. The cost is not that high, and does not hurt their cap situation. If it works out, the Cavs try to keep Garnett around for a couple more years.

Why do the Celtics do it? A 2013 No. 1 pick, and Jamison comes of the books after the 2012 season.

Second: Ray Allen. Ray is 36 and in the last year of his deal at $10 million, His defense has slid but he remains an exceptional three-point shooter, with the highest percentage of his storied career. There is likely interest in him from a team, and the Celtics ought to be able to find a deal that does not require the team taking back much salary past 2012 and that includes a future No. 1 pick. It will not be a lottery pick. Teams that jump out as possible candidates are Minnesota, Utah, the Clippers and Milwaukee.

Conclusion: The team that strikes me as the best bet is Minnesota, which desperately needs an off guard who can shoot, and a classy professional workaholic veteran to put next to their kids. Minnesota can offer expiring deals (or deals unguaranteed past 2012) like Brad Miller and Martell Webster. The Wolves can offer Utah’s protected No. 1 pick beginning in 2012. If the Celtics have not been conveyed Utah’s pick by 2014, the team gets Minnesota’s 2014 No. 1 pick.

Why do the C’s do it? A future No. 1 pick.

Third: Paul Pierce. Paul has one more guaranteed year after this season and an unguaranteed (or partially guaranteed) year in 13-14. If the Celtics do go into blow-up mode the team might even consider amnestying Pierce after the season, so he is definitely someone who should be on the market. He also still has big-time game, and is a legitimate All-Star. Pierce makes $15 million so he is a bit harder to move, but it is possible. Minnesota and Houston jump out as teams that could use him; the Lakers too.

Conclusion: Houston is the best possible partner. The Rockets are playing surprisingly well and need a small forward with Pierce's skill-set. With a player like Pierce, the Rockets could move into the first tier in the Western Conference and make it to the Conference Finals. The Rockets have a ton of expiring deals for guys who are not in the rotation and a GM in Daryl Morey who like Ainge is unafraid to shake things up. The Rockets also have the Knicks 2012 No. 1 pick. The deal for Pierce works if Houston gives up Hasheem Thabeet, Jonny Flynn, Terrence Williams, Chandler Parsons, Chase Budinger and the Knicks No. 1 pick. The Rockets are not giving up much, except their ability to compete in the free agent market in the summer of 2012. That did not look very promising for the Rockets, so they take Pierce instead.

Why do the Celtics do it? Clear massive additional cap space in the summer of 2012, so the Celtics could sign two max-contract players. (Are you listening Dwight and Deron?) The Celtics also get a mid-range 2012 no. 1 pick and two serviceable young rotation caliber 3s in Parsons and Budinger.

After the Hurricane

If the Celtics pulled the trigger on these three deals, what would it mean for the balance of the 2012 season?

Here is the roster:

5—O’Neal, Stiemsma, Thabeet, B. Miller

4—Jamison, Bass, JJJ, Wilcox

3—T. Williams, Parsons, Budinger, Daniels, Pavlovic

2—Pietrus, Moore, Webster

1—Rondo, Bradley, Dooling, Flynn

That is 20 guys, so five players would need to be waived. Looking at these names, that does not seem like a difficult operation.

This team would likely not make the playoffs and pick between seven and ten in the first round. It probably will not be pretty.

When the dust clears, this would be the situation of the team going forward:

5—Stiemsma

4—JJJ, possibly Bass (he has a player option for 2012-13)

3—Parsons, Budinger

2—Bradley, Moore

1—Rondo

So the Celtics have a core of seven or eight players, and, to be blunt, aside from Rondo, it is not especially impressive. It is possible that Thabeet, Flynn or T. Williams might show enough to warrant a small one or two year contract. At any rate this is a team that barring a major infusion of talent is aimed at the lottery in 2013.

On the other hand, Ainge’s pile of chips will have increased.

Future draft choices:

2012:

Boston No. 1

New York No. 1

Clippers No. 1

Boston No. 2

(Possible Utah No. 1, but more likely in 2013 when it is top-12 protected, or 2014 when it is top-9 protected)

(Possible Milwaukee no. 2 if Bucks are not a lottery team, so unlikely)

2013:

Boston No. 1

Cleveland No. 1

Utah No. 1 (may turn into Utah or Minnesota no. 1 in 2014)

Minnesota No. 2

Boston No. 2

It is crucial to remember that these No. 1 picks are as valuable as trading chips as much as they are for the purposes of drafting players. And talented young players can be parlayed into deals for superstars. Recall that Danny effectively converted Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair and Ryan Gomes plus a couple of no. 1 picks into Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett in the summer of 2007.

The other huge asset that is built up is capspace, oodles of it.

In the all-time dream scenario, the Celtics have a killer draft in 2012. Then Ainge convinces Howard and Williams to join the team for max deals, and he uses the two newly created $2.5 million exceptions for Garnett and Ray Allen. Then the Celtics are back on top for the rest of the decade.

But that almost certainly will not happen. What to do with the capspace then? The new CBA requires team to spend a certain percentage of the cap amount every season so teams cannot hoard capspace. But what Ainge can do is simply sign players to one-year deal. Or, better yet, he can take players off of teams that need to shed salary to avoid the luxury tax or to clear capspace for free agents. If Ainge does this he gets a No. 1 pick in exchange.

The Celtics will likely have a high draft pick in 2013, and maybe 2014. But, if Ainge drafts with his usual skill, it will be a team chock full of exciting young prospects. The future will begin to look a lot brighter quickly and the trip to the very bottom will have been brief. But there is still no guarantee this returns the Celtics to legitimate contention; it only increases the odds sharply.

The point of this exercise is not to say that these are the very best deals; it is simply to demonstrate the types of options Danny Ainge has as he looks toward the immediate and long-run future of the team. The sad truth is that it is very difficult to get a superstar and contend in the NBA. Unless a team gets lucky it likely will not happen. What a well-managed blow-up does is increase the ability to get lucky. But the sad truth is that it is anything but a sure thing.

Is Doing Nothing Really an Option?

Finally, I have sympathy for those who detest the idea of breaking up the big three, especially Paul Pierce, and “tanking” in the immediate future. Until a few weeks ago, I was doing everything in my power to remain in your ranks. I love this team and these players and I take no pleasure in writing these words. But consider this: In two months the season will be over. We will have seen flashes of lovely basketball and periods that will be deplorable. The team will likely finish in the seventh or eighth seed and get promptly eliminated by Miami or Chicago. And those may be our last playoff memories for some time. The Celtics will have the 15th or 16th pick in the draft, and the Clippers, probably around 24th or 25th.

Then comes the offseason, when many of the current players, including Ray Allen and Garnett, will be unrestricted free agents. What point will there be for Allen or Garnett to return? They can then sign with legitimate contenders at optimum salaries. And why would the rebuilding Celtics bring them back, unless the miracle of miracles happens and Dwight Howard comes to Boston as a free agent. Ainge is certainly NOT going to squander capspace and draft picks on short-term fixes to make Garnett and Allen happy so the team can finish 43-39 and get the eighth seed in 2013.

Then what happens if the Cs enter 2012-13 with Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, a bunch of kids and a handful of Dooling-type journeymen to round out the roster? It will be a team certainly headed to the lottery, but with a grumpy disposition. Paul will be 35; he does not want to go through yet another rebuild. He wants to win and win now. The karma around the team will be sour and there will be pressure on Danny to get some veterans so we can make the 8th seed again and have the much-vaunted “puncher’s chance.” Danny will be doing Paul Pierce and the Cs no favors by keeping him around just to provide a memory of better times. It could become a nightmare.

All it will do, to be blunt, is postpone and make more difficult the rebuilding process. It is hard enough to build a legitimate contender under the best of circumstances. There is no reason to increase the odds. Best to start it right now, assuming deals along the lines I suggest are indeed plausible.