Hollinger's take on the Celtics

The Grand Pooper (I mean, Poobah) of NBA statistics has rolled out his pre-season opinions. I don't have insider access at ESPN, so I'm just cut-and-pasting this off of redsarmy.com. If any of you do have that, then feel free to post Hollinger's entire review. Not that it matters much, his analysis is defense-challenged and we're a defensive-oriented team. Anyway, for what it's worth, here's John Hollinger. My opinions are in bold.

http://redsarmy.com/2012/09/18/hollingers-take-on-the-2012-celtics/

Rajon Rondo:

One of the league’s most unique players, Rondo is either great or horrible at nearly everything, producing wildly divergent viewpoints as to his overall value. In the same season, he was passed over in favor of Luol Deng for the All-Star team and named on eight MVP ballots…

The general consensus was that Rondo’s defense slipped a bit last season, that he gambled too much and his effort wavered. While opposing point guards mustered just a 10.9 PER against him, Boston gave up more points with him on the court, and his foul rate was so low (barely one every 20 minutes) that it supported the idea that he was saving himself for the offensive end. His steals rate was also a career low, although still well above par for his position. Rondo does gamble too much on defense. Having said that, he's only got a 10.9 PER against him. So, Hollinger, is your PER stat worth anything or not? If it is, then 10.9 is pretty damn good.

Avery Bradley:

Bradley actually didn’t have an unusually high steal rate, as he didn’t take gambles off the ball, but on it he routinely devoured dribblers with his outstanding lateral quickness. Bradley had some of the best Synergy scores at his position and held opposing guards to barely double digit PERs; the Celtics also gave up 4.4 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court. Opposing 2s occasionally found success attacking him in the post, but even there he did a fairly solid job. "A fairly solid job"? He got a vote for DPOY in less than a half season of play! He holds his opponents to barely double digit PERs. Isn't that performance using your metric worth more than a "fairly solid job"? Um, I guess not, since that would require you to say nice things about the Celtics. Wouldn't want your tongue burst into flames, now would we?

Paul Pierce:

Pierce turns 35 in October and will likely begin showing signs of age at some point. We just don’t know when that will be. Last season, he actually took on a much greater offensive load given the struggles of Boston’s secondary players, ranking fourth among small forwards in usage rate, and it didn’t seem to hurt him. Pierce’s TS% dropped, understandably, but he still finished a solid eighth among small forwards in this category and belied his age by converting 64.8 percent at the rim. He also still draws fouls like nobody’s business, ranking fourth in free throw rate at his position despite shooting mostly jumpers. So, no opinion despite saying some nice things about him. Had to throw in the age thing while admitting you have no idea when he might see evidence that he's right. His tongue is still safe.

Kevin Garnett:

When Garnett finished the first month of the season, he couldn’t jump and was noticeably dragging his leg. But as the year went on, he turned into the KG of old, abetted by a midseason shift to center. His season-ending stats were nearly the same as the year before, although he continued his drift to the perimeter. Nearly two-thirds of his shots were beyond 10 feet, and he converted an excellent 45.9 percent of them. However, Garnett took advantage of his length, especially in the playoffs — he went to the post much more often for short-range turnarounds and showed he can still be extremely effective from that spot. Hallelujah! Hollinger actually stated the obvious! KG can still play. Funny how he didn't mention KG's age...His tongue starts to sizzle. Fear not, though, he still has chances to save himself and seizes them like a drowning man for a life preserver, as you will see.

Brandon Bass:

Defensively, Bass had some of the highest Synergy ratings in the NBA last season, but subjective observation and other metrics fail to back that up. The Celtics gave up more points with him on the court than off of it, and opposing power forwards had a 13.7 PER against him — solid but hardly exceptional given the elite defensive team surrounding him. He’s tough and he’s become much sharper situationally than when he first got to Orlando, but it’s hard to rate him as more than a midtier defender at this spot. "Subjective observation"? So, you're saying you don't like him even though the stats you revere like gods say you're wrong. If 15.0 is league average, giving up a 13.7 is still better than average. This is assuming, of course, Hollinger's PER isn't complete crap, an opinion that subjective observation does back up. And suppose he is just a mid-tier defender? A mid-tier defender on an elite defensive team, who opens up the floor with his jumpshot and can put it on the floor and finish strong brings other values to the team. Let's also remember last year was Bass' first year with Doc's defensive schemes, and it was a short year to boot. Kee-rist! I'm writing more about his opinion than his opinion itself. That can't be good.

Jason Terry:

The biggest negative, offensively, is that Terry’s turnover ratio keeps climbing. A jump shooter shouldn’t be in the bottom half of shooting guards in turnover ratio, but Terry was last season.

Nonetheless, his primary shortcoming is at the defensive end. Terry has to cross-match defensively and check the opposing point guard, but quicker players can get by him and bigger ones play right over the top. His rebound rates are among the worst in basketball, although he doesn’t foul — only Steve Nash was whistled less often last season (see chart). Boston’s personnel should allow Terry to keep cross-matching, and if so he’ll continue to be very effective in his sixth man role. I suppose one god-send here is that I haven't watched JET play enough to have a firm opinion here to state. If we look at the 2010 season (the last full one) and compare it to the previous season, then it is true his TO/36mpg has gone up (by almost 20%) but his assists/36mpg went up too (by almost 15%). Is this due to recklessness in his dotage, or was he just trying to do more and had the ball in his hands more? In a mixed sport metaphor, infielders commit more errors than outfielders because they touch the ball more often. If there are more balls hit to the left side of the infield than the right then that gives the shortstop more opportunities to make a play (and an error). Does that make him a worse fielder this year? I don't see it like that. I'm going to wait and see on this, especially since it's coming from Hollinger. And how many "jump-shooters" average 4.7assists/36mpg? Maybe that suggests his role is not as cut-and-dried as Hollinger is trying to make it?

Hollinger isn’t too high on Jeff Green and Courtney Lee. He thinks the Celtics overpaid for both (Green’s contract “boggles the mind”). He also points out that Lee is much better on paper and his defensive reputation outweighs the results on the court. If Hollinger's mind is boggled by Green's contract, just imagine how baffled he's going to be when he finally realizes he's a pompous ass. Lee is "much better on paper"? Would that be the paper he used to produce the crown jewel of career, his PER? Now that boggles my mind. So, dumbo, do you think your subjective observations of Lee are qualitatively superior to Doc and Danny's? You must, since you're throwing your PER under the bus when it suits you.


bob


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Bob

From the worthless trash pile in my mind I think this is the perfect spot for this. I can't post photos from my work computer but if you look at a photo of Hollinger it bears striking resemblance to the luney that ran the Heaven's Gate Cult that guy that thought there was a UFO behind a comet that was going to wipe the earth clean or somthing to that nature, Marshall Applewhite. Actually had quite a few followers, And we know how that went. Believe it took place couple blocks from you.


As to the article. I'd like to think he Meatloafed it by getting about "2 out of 3 ain't bad" right, but his work is more like the old Clint Eastwood flick.......... the good, (not much) the bad, (too much) and the UGLY.


Boy do we need some hoop action soon.

beat

when are people going to stop reading this guy's garbage and finally have him stop being listened to. He is wrong nine tenths of the time and he lets his dislike of the Celtics show each and every time.




Rosalie

Thanx for wading through all this statstuff and giving an analysis I can understand Rosalie

Mulcogi

Bob,

I wouldn't soil myself by even mentioning this guy's name, much less commenting on his "analysis." But, while trying to stuff my computer into the paper shredder, I did have a thought about Bradley.

We all know that Bradley doesn't need a load of steals to make things miserable for the opposition. Simply hounding them obviously causes them to be tentative, get out of synch, burn clock time, etc. But his presence also does something that has arguably been missing defensively for the Celtics since 1969.

Anyone want to guess what it is? (Hint: The word "presence" is the operative term.)

Sam

Hollinger and his ESPN buddies won't say much good about the C's. They are very quick to kiss up to Wade, James and almost any other Heat player with any semblance of game. I think the sports Talking Heads at ESPN will be surprised by the depth and versatility this Boston team should show this season. An up tempo offense will help the Celts get some easy transition baskets and without Allen, Rondo shouldn't have to pound the ball for much of the shot clock waiting for the "2" guard to curl off of multiple picks. Sullinger's arrival and Wilcox & Green's return should pay dividends as well as Terry coming off the bench. With Doc orchestrating, Lee may well develop a sense of stability and buy into the system the way many have done since his arrival with the Celtics a number of years ago. The East will be very competitive. The Nets & Sixers are much improved so the C's made the necessary moves to step up to the challenge.

MD!

Sam, I don't know what Bradley does that has arguably been missing defensively since 1969, but his D reminds me a lot of Dennis Johnson. Tenacious, pestering, and consistent. AB's defense on Dwayne Wade reminded me of DJ's defense on Magic Johnson in the 1984 finals. Such a joy to watch basketball played that way.

Meanwhile, I'm back from Crete and Chania...thought about you while savoring scrumptious meals on the waterfront. Heaven.

W,

I wish we'd known you were going to Chania. We'd have given you the address of the restaurant where the food was so good and the ambiance so friendly that we went there on four consecutive nights. The owner is a Beach Boys fan. At one point, my wife was dancing with him in the kitchen, and I was outside leading a crowd in singing, "Inside outside USA." We really miss Chania.''

Did you encounter any of the unrest that has been occurring in Athens?

The defensive factor I was referring to was Bill Russell's concept of "Invisible Man." I noted many occasions last year on which Bradley's reputation for tenacity seemed to make opponents tentative even when they couldn't see him.

Welcome back.

Sam

Sam, I'll be going back next year, so yes, please send me the name.

There was no evidence of any unrest during my two weeks in Greece or Crete. Times are tough, but the food is great everywhere and people are still happy.

Yes Bradley had opponents flustered and fearful - as did DJ and Bill Russell. Ironically, Bill was DJ's first pro coach (Seattle) but didn't give him any minutes. It wasn't till Lenny Wilkens took over that DJ flourished.

The other day I started a "bucket list". Not that I'm expecting to kick the bucket anytime soon (although none of us truly knows when), I just wanted to put some focus on what I still need to get done. My list started to get a lot longer than I thought it would. Good news/bad news. I'm starting to realize, though, that I need to start hustling.

Having said that, could I ask worcester and sam to tell me about Crete and Chania? I know where Crete is, it has a reputation for being a good place to shop and as a transfer point for many blackmarket products, but I don't know what makes it such a desirable destination. It can't just be the weather and beaches, there are many such in the Med.

bob

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Bob, I'll send you some pictures soon - which tell 1000's of words - and my take on why Crete is my favorite place in the world for hiking, snorkeling, and eating - all on a very low budget. But for now I've got to get back to work.

Bob and Worcester,

I don't know a lot about Crete because we spent most of our time in the second largest city of Chaniá ("Hahn-YAH"). Chaniá lays claim to being one of the oldest continuously inhabited city in the world. It has a gorgeous, curved Venetian harbor replete with lighthouse, and the waterfront looks particularly festive with laterns lit at night.

We did take a two-hour taxi ride to Heraklion (the largest city) to board a ferry for Santorini. But the seas were too rough, so we took another two-hour taxi ride back to Chania and shocked our restauranteur buddy by arriving that evening for our fourth consecutive meal. That was our only foray out of Chaniá, which has its own airport.

Even during our first dinner at the restaurant, they kept bringing more food for us to sample (no charge), and they also provided complementary raki at the end of the (extended) meal. Luckily, our hotel was diagonally across the small street, and we could belch and roll our way to bed.

We're unusual travelers because we don't feel obliged to see everything; and, while we appreciate beautiful sights, we’re more into the locals. When we encounter something we really like, we work it, work it, work it until it's like an old friend.

While we did spend some time walking on the beautiful semi-circular waterfront, which is ringed by many restaurants (distinguished more by their numbers and decorations than by their quality). We also did a shopping trip in the Old Town. But the rest of our time was pretty much spent on the one street, where we would spend hours in our favorite travel pursuit—sitting at cafés and people-watching. My wife got to know virtually every shopkeeper on the street (and their animals). We loved the hotel—the Palazzo Hotel, located at 54 Theotokopoulou Street. Website: http://www.palazzohotel.gr/main_eng.html
It’s run by a woman and her daughter, and they were great. It’s a small hotel (11 rooms) in an old mansion; and as an example of the rates, they’re charging about $80 (U.S.) per night for next May. The price includes a very adequate continental breakfast, a minibar in the room, air conditioning, and of course a private bath. There are three floors and no elevator.

As soon as we arrived in Chania, we a rented car delivered to our hotel. We used it exactly once (for the Old City shopping trip) in five days. Worcester had told us about some wonderful places to swim, but we never got there. Yet we would rate that vacation as nearly perfect!

I can’t find the name of the restaurant. But I have photos that show a number 13 on the wall just behind my wife (we were eating outside). The next building up the street is Anastasia (rooms for rent). It’s on the side of the street opposite the hotel side. Just take a Beach Boy’s disk with you and you’ll be most welcome. (The owner must have 15 of them, so you might want to take the one that was very recently introduced to the market.)

I’ve changed my avatar to show my wife savoring her crepes (almost orgasmic) along with showing some of the street at night.

Sam