A Broader Look at Rajon Rondo, Instigator

by **bobheckler** Fri Nov 30, 2012 12:43 pm

http://www.sheridanhoops.com/2012/11/29/karalis-a-broader-look-at-rajon-rondo-instigator/

BOSTON — The immediate question concerning Rajon Rondo is this: How
many games is he going to miss for instigating the brawl between the
Boston Celtics and the Brooklyn Nets?
But the broader question is this: When will people start to
appreciate the fact that Rondo is a much, much better shooter than
people give him credit for?We saw it in the
playoffs last season against Miami, we’ve seen his confidence increase
with each season he has spent in the league, yet people remain quick to
dismiss that particular part of his game.

It’s like toilet paper sticking to the bottom of a shoe.

“Imagine if he could shoot?”

Rondo has been able to dominate games over his young career in ways
others haven’t. He’s fit passes into such tiny places, it would make a
contortionist jealous. He’s crafted assists with enough curve and spin
that Greg Maddux might feel inferior. And among all his assists (more
than 4,500 of them), there have been countless times when he has found
oblivious teammates with passes when they didn’t even realize they were
open.

We all know this by now: Rajon Rondo is an assist machine.
There have been 204 instances over his 542-game career (regular season
and playoffs) in which Rondo has left the floor having dished at least
10 dimes. But in 69 of those games, Rondo has also left the floor with a
single digit in his scoring column. In another 19, he scored just 10
points.

“Imagine if he could shoot?”

Well, here’s the thing about that.

He can.

Doc Rivers and various Celtics teammate have told people for a while
that Rondo’s jumper has been solid in practices. But that’s never
really translated into games over a consistent basis (last year’s series
against the Heat excluded).

This season, while gaining the most attention for his double-digit
assists streak (which ended at 37 — tied for second-longest in NBA
history — when he was ejected against Brooklyn. What has gone relatively
unnoticed is that Rondo has been taking shots with a lot more
confidence, and drilling them.

The numbers bear that out.

Rondo’s field goal percentage, should it stay at it’s current 51.7%,
would be the highest of his career. The same goes for his 55.2 true
shooting percentage. His overall shooting numbers have always been
propped up by a ridiculous conversion rate at the rim.

That’s still the case this season, where Rondo is hitting a career
high 66.1 % around the rim. But he’s been in the 60’s in the past.
What’s really adding to Rondo’s percentages is his mid (and long) range
game. The numbers tell the story:

	10-15 feet	16-23 feet
Career Average(prior to this season)	106-270 (39.3%)	386-1008 (38.3%)
2011-12 season	10-36 (27.8%)	60-152 (39%)
This Season	3-8 (37.5%)	23-47 (48.9%)

*All stats via Hoopdata.com

It’s a small sample size, which is the caveat that goes along with
most statistical analysis. For example, before he got thrown out of
Wednesday night’s game, he missed one shot from 10-15 feet, which means
he went into the game shooting 42.9% from that spot, well above his
career average, missed once, and saw it drop to below his career
average. But the sample from 16-23 is larger and more indicative of
Rondo’s ability to step up and bury jumpers. It’s that 16-23 foot range
where teams sag off Rondo the most, daring him to beat them with jump
shots.

That is, until they get burned.

“Teams still don’t believe it,” coach Doc Rivers said. “They’re still
going under (picks). But one of the changes we’ve seen is that when he
makes a couple (of outside shots), they start going over. And once they
start going over, it makes our pick-and-roll offense unguardable.

When the Celtics run a pick-and-roll, teams have almost always gone
under the screen. That makes Rondo’s first option a jump shot because it
generally takes away a lane to the basket for the guy setting the pick.

But when the defense starts going over the top, Rondo has a tendency to make things like this happen: Video at link at top of page.

The Celtics have seen a spike in alley-oops, almost entirely because
teams are not sagging off of Rondo as much as they have in the past. And
that’s almost entirely because of Rondo’s ability to shoot the ball.

It’s no surprise that he had a streak of 37 straight double-digit
assist games going. The ability to hit mid-range shots opens up the
floor for a guy who could already see everything on it. It almost makes
the defender in front of him transparent. You see it especially in the
first play, and the last two plays of that video, when his big man rolls
to the rim, and there’s sufficient confusion caused by the screen,
Rondo will find him.

It
works the same way in transition, which is where Chris Wilcox has
thrived for the Celtics. He has 11 dunks on the season, and all but a
few have been alley oops from Rondo. Most of those have come simply
because Wilcox found space as a defender chased Rondo out further than
he would have in the past.

It also has a ripple effect on his older teammates, especially Kevin
Garnett. Easy baskets for Garnett make him a more efficient scorer in
increasingly limited time. This year, Garnett is playing 29.1 minutes
per game, down two from last year. But he’s shooting 51.6%, which is up
from last year. The reason? Last year he shot 67% in shots at the
rim. This year, he’s up to 81%. That’s almost all coming from Rondo.

Rondo’s assists are leading to 5.5 baskets per game at the rim this
year. That’s the highest number of his career so far and more than a
full basket better per game than last year. His spike in assists this
year (12.9 per game, up from 11.7), is due to more assisted 2-point
field goals (11.4 per game, up from 9.2).

The Celtics haven’t really increased their pace much from last
season. They’re only taking one more shot per game so far, so it’s not
as if they’re getting a ton of transition baskets to lead to all those
extra two-point assists. The fact is, Rondo’s getting his teams more
shots closer to the basket because of one simple thing.

He can shoot now. He’s creating more space with his own jumper, and his teammates are reaping the benefits.

You don’t have to imagine anymore.

bob
MY NOTE: There's a video clip, which I cannot cut-and-paste, on page two of this article that shows what happens when the defense goes over the picks instead of under them and giving Rondo the shot.

.