How Do You Eat An Elephant?

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Post by NYCelt Thu Feb 21, 2013 11:45 pm

Q: How do you eat an elephant?

Perhaps the action, or rather inaction we saw leading up to today comes down to this; we have so many needs it's impossible to fill them all right away. We need guards who can score and play defense. We need centers who can rebound, defend and get to the rim. We need forwards (or anybody with a pulse) who has a clue as to how to position for an offensive rebound. You can't just go out and grab them all at once. What we did is get a player who came at practically no cost to us who might be able to help with part of the scoring dilemma.

A: One bite at a time.

The '07/'08 team is long gone. The window is fully closed; but that's OK. It's been open longer than anticipated, but now it's time. Would it have been nice to make a bunch of deals now in order to bring in promising young players to revitalize the team? Yes. But it's not that easy. You have to have something to trade, or money to spend, and we have neither right now. At least what we seem to value, is valued less by others. That's nothing new; just ask anyone trying to sell a house or an enterprise of some sort. The current owner always thinks the asset is more valuable than it is to the potential buyer. Sometimes the owner also over personalizes their property, to a point that it's only attractive to them. It's true of paint colors and it's also true of extended contracts for players whose bodies have already had enough. We probably stayed with what we had in the hunt too long. It was a tough call and could have gone either way. Sometimes the danger in elephant hunting is that if you miss, the elephant turns around and squashes you. So it is with riding players too long. You have to be ready to take smaller and much quicker steps. Reload sooner, before it's too late and the big game is too much for your old firepower to bring down.

One bite at a time.

We'll gather new players with specific skills to see what they can contribute. Some will stick and others will be gone quickly. The one certainty at this point is that Rondo is the cornerstone. We're tied to a couple of past stars for the next year or two, so this will take time. Eventually, we'll move them out to take their place in team history and have money to operate with. In the meantime we're liable to find another good young player or two. It looks like we'll start with guards and go form there. Rondo, Bradley and Green are probably part of the next great Celtic team. Others will shuffle in and out for a couple of years.

One bite at a time.

It's a huge task and like eating an elephant, you can't swallow it whole. But you can enjoy the adventure of getting there. You just have to do it...

One bite at a time.
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Post by 112288 Fri Feb 22, 2013 9:33 am

Logical thoughts.


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Post by Outside Fri Feb 22, 2013 11:27 am

Good post. It's hard for fans in particular to take the long view. It doesn't help when they've seen what looks like big moves leading to instant results (the 2007-08 title), but even that was the result of groundwork laid over many years.

It doesn't help when trade deadline day is viewed as an "event" with hyperventilating speculation leading up to it. When your team doesn't do anything like the big, splashy moves that were tossed around in the media, some people feel like it's a letdown, but as you correctly point out, you don't rebuild a team all at once, you do it bit by bit (or bite by bite).
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Post by bobheckler Fri Feb 22, 2013 12:10 pm

NYCelt,

I agree with 112288, this is well thought out.

Danny has taken a few bites with 27 year old Green (whom many of us, including me, were NOT big on earlier this season), 20 year old Sully (whom many of us, including me, were completely at a loss on draft day when he took this earthbound mastodon when we were focused on athletic centers) and 22 year old Bradley (who was a bust in year 1 and didn't come on until the 2nd half of his 2nd year). We also have 27 year old Courtney Lee signed to a multi-year deal. Of these 4 players, only Bradley was on the roster last year and Green was a BIG question mark.

As far as hanging onto aging warriors like KG and Pierce for too long, that is always a potential pitfall. Of course, Pierce signed his longterm contract when he was much younger. Sentimentality didn't stop Danny from cutting crowd and locker room favorites James Posey and Leon Powe off at the knees. KG is still playing at a high level and is the Gold Standard of how to prepare for games and seasons. His value to players like Sully and Melo go beyond his contributions on the court. If drafting/signing young players like Sully and Bradley are the initial bites, then providing them with a mentor is another. We are already chewing.

Now, I come to Paul Pierce. If we assume he has lost game and can't deliver anymore (and given the body blows this team has taken over the past month with the losses of Rondo, Sully and Blur I think it is reasonable that we should expect some drop off in his production as he adapts to being less of a scorer and more of a facilitator/assister and rebounder) then the question remaining is "who should Danny have traded him for?". The sine qua non of basketball trades is that whomever gets the best player, won. That's because a basketball roster is so small, compared to other major sports, that one player's impact (or lack of) is more significant. What names were we hearing bandied about that made us say "YES! PULL THE TRIGGER, DANNY!"? Trading just to get younger, and assuming some longer term contracts, doesn't make sense to me unless those youths make me salivate. At this point, Pierce's value is at its lowest point. He's old and doesn't have many more years left in him, so he can only go to a team that is already in a good position for the post-season and isn't looking past this year and maybe the next (like the way we were in 2008, when we brought in two players past the bloom of youth to join our captain who was in the same place in his career, for one last attempt at glory). Will they break up that team and give us good value for, what amounts to, a rental? With another big year left on his contract, he isn't appealing under the new CBA. So, in short, he's too old and too expensive for anybody except a few select teams, who have every reason to like their squads already. Next year, when he has an expiring contract, his value will actually increase, although, so too will the sentimental attachment. Admit it, doesn't it already bring a tear to your eyes at the thought of another Havlicek-like last game for Paul Pierce in the Gahden?

Then, there are the intangibles. What did Jason Collins, a player who came here as a last gasp chance to win a ring, say after he heard he had been traded? He said "I loved every minute of it". Why did Leandro Barbosa sign here when Kobe was lobbying for him in LA? He said "I've been following this team my entire life. I knew my minutes might be inconsistent, but it was where I wanted to play". Why did Jeff Green want to sign with the Celtics Uber Alles? Because of what this organization is and the way they treated him. Why was Chris Paul ready to gut his team to get KG? Because KG is a draw, not just for the fans, but for players too. Why would a free agent want to come to Boston? It's not for the banners, it's for Doc and KG and Pierce and the opportunity to play with some great players and for a great coach and yes, for a storied franchise.

Great young teams tend to be nothing more. The Atlanta Hawks have been building, building, building for 5 years now. They're almost there, and then they lose Josh Childress. They're almost there, and now they're about to lose Josh Smith. "Building" is good, but not as good as "Built". You need a franchise player, or two, to do that. Chicago needed Derrick Rose and Noah (whom they drafted) to get Boozer and Rip Hamilton. Miami needed DWade to get LeBron and his ass-kissing sycophant, Chris Bosh. After that it was easy to get Battier and Lewis and Ray. Danny needs to land another franchise player, or two, and he couldn't do that trading KG and Pierce this year. I heard NO trades that worked for me. Josh Smith for Pierce? Absolutely, but that wasn't available.

Besides, we don't know what will happen this summer. Pierce could renegotiate his contract from $15M for one year to $5M for 4 years (which would make other deals more possible) and then retire after one or two with a buyout of the balance.

bob


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Post by gyso Fri Feb 22, 2013 2:54 pm

Please remember to chew properly after each bite. Use the tusks as a toothpick.

bobh,

Pierce may or may not be able to renegotiate his $15M contract next year. There was some minor debate about that over at CelticsBlog between some people whose opinion I respect. One was Roy Hobbs (who doubted it) and one was mmmmm (who said maybe). Nobody made a strong case about it either way. Old friend dslack just said no.

The fly in the ointment (which 5m's brought to the debate) is that one of the many sites that describe player salaries and contracts indicates that Pierce's contract has a player option (it was way down at the bottom). The other sites just indicate that the contract is only partially guaranteed.

The hope is that he does have a player option and can do what bobh suggests above. That is what 5m's was hoping for, that Pierce can opt out and then stretch out a new contract at far less of an amount. Pierce then could retire or use the "Over-36" rule. I will supply the link for the over-36 rule and let everyone try to digest the rule for themselves. It is very much like eating an elephant!!

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q56

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Post by 112288 Fri Feb 22, 2013 3:01 pm

PASS THE DENTAL FLOSS AROUND.........ALSO MAKES FOR A GOOD NOOSE TO PUT AROUND DANNY'S NECK IF HIS REBUILDING STRATEGY DOES NOT WORK!


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Post by swish Fri Feb 22, 2013 3:13 pm

I was hoping that Danny would start the break up of the Celts last Feb. However he elected to go all in and in so doing added about 22 mil to the long term payroll (Garnett,Lee and Terry) If they were a young team at that time I could see it as a logical move. Now were a year older and sadled with the fact that until both the Garnett and Pierce salaries come off the books we will not be a player in the free agent market. Making it even worse is the fact that those added contracts will guarrantee at least a middle of the pack finish and a less than stella draft pick. In addition, should both Garnett and Pierce NOW choose to walk away from the Celts we will have missed the chance to pick up even a single chip for the future. Did they want to trade either or both? Did they try to trade either or both? We'll probably learn more over the next few days. The Spurs by comparison, with a pretty old team also, will if they choose, be about 16 mil under the cap this coming year. The other elite teams are all quite young. Of course my thoughts are completely pointless if the Celts win it all. Being wrong would be well worth it. I agree with NYCelt. There isn't a quick fix out there. Were going to get worse before we rise again to the top.

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Post by tjmakz Fri Feb 22, 2013 3:39 pm

I know we have talked about this before, but Pierce's contract for next season is not considered a team or a player option. It is a partial guarantee. If the team does nothing, Pierce will earn $15.33m next season. If they waive him, he will receive $5m. Yes, he could be re-signed but only with cap space or the veterans minimum as Boston would no longer have his Bird Rights. Pierce could also be amnestied but then he can't play for Boston next season.

Pierce's existing contract cannot be renegotiated like they do in baseball.
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Post by gyso Fri Feb 22, 2013 6:36 pm

tj,

As I stated above, one of the websites says it is a player option. What makes you so sure it is not? Do you have any proof or are you just saying so?

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Post by k_j_88 Fri Feb 22, 2013 6:54 pm

Win now doesn't seem very possible, even with trades. Instead of making a rush to make trades, maybe they should accumulate pieces over the next couple of years for the next monumental move.
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Post by dboss Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:00 pm

NYCelt

A very thoughtful post.

I think DA is a lot more cautious at this point than his reputation would indicate.

This team was hurt the day he traded Perkins to OKC for Jeff Green. The notion that they did not think they could resign him seems odd. If you recall Perk and baby were both in the mix for a new contracts and the Celtics made a decision to retain baby and move Perk. They could have retained Perkins and I do not think he would have left the team willingly. After all he broke down in tears when he found out that Danny had traded him. That one move tore the guts out of the team and since that day we have not been able to recapture the level of defensive dominance that we had before the trade.

In retrospect, getting Green was a reaction to the Lebron factor. We needed a long athletic 3-4 who could match up with Lebron and other athletic 3’s because Paul Pierce did not have the physical ability to check athletic 3’s. Getting Green was not a good short term move but long term it made perfect sense provided you replace the 5 spot as well. That has not happened and that is why the Perkins trade continues to impact the Celtics opportunity to add another banner.

There are a lot of erroneous reports floating around. I was surprised to hear that the Celtics wanted to move Wilcox instead of Collins. I find that hard to believe. They were both making the same amount of money and while Wilcox is not a great player he is better than Collins. So if you had the choice why would you keep Collins???

Adding Crawford as a replacement for Barbosa was needed. But also, with Paul Pierce putting up good numbers maybe 1 game in 4, the Celtics simply needed another scorer period. Paul Pierce is pretty much finished as a guy that we can depend on game in and game out to carry the offensive load that puts us over the top. I do not care if he is able to help us in other areas like rebounding or assists. Damnit..we need him to score the basketball while shooting a respectable %.

The Celtics will probably add some slug to play center and maybe Melo will have an opportunity to gain some experience. Melo really reminds me of a kid that is learning how to drive for the first time. It is impossible for them to react naturally to all that is going on around them. So when you see him on the court he is still learning how to drive. He is a project but in order to move him forward he needs court time and he needs to be able to screw up so that he can learn. Just hope that he does not total the car.

I read some articles that have attempted to equate the current situation of the Celtics with the situation that they were in with Bird, Parrish and McHale. I think that attempt misses the mark because the current team reflects an ongoing rebuild where as that old Celtic team had no significant forward movement and what movement they may have realized was cut short by the two infamous tragedies.

The current team has several very good players that provide a solid foundation as the team moves into the future. Rondo, Bradley, Green and even Sullinger provide tremendous optimism for being a very good team in the near future. We just have to find that big guy to man the middle.

Do not be surprised to see the Celtics use their only amnesty option on Paul Pierce or he may be part of a trade. I think they will try to hold onto KG through the end of his contract. He has 2 years left and can serve as a mentor for whoever comes in and in so doing provide a much needed bridge.

Now here is the good thing

There are several big men that will be available this summer:

Samuel Dalembert, Al Jefferson , Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum and Josh Smith

Of this group, Dalembert is the least desirable unless you were looking for a Back UP center.

Al Jefferson’s return to Boston would be welcomed. He can rebound and score in the post although his defensive DNA has never been very good. Could you imagine getting Jefferson back and him having a chance to play alongside KG for 2 years?

Howard will probably stay out there in LaLa land simply because of the money that the Lakers can offer him. But keep in mind that Howard is very temperamental and if there is no noticeable improvement in his relationship with Kobe, Howard could very well leave LA. LA needs Howard more than Howard needs LA. If LA does not make the playoffs or if they are one and done there is going to be a lot of recriminations. That would be great for Boston. He would really make Boston a force. But I do not know how Boston would be able to do it without a sign and trade situation. It would be very complicated.

Bynum has the history of knee issues and has to be considered a very risky investment. Philly may have tied their ship to his anchor and will have to make a decision about resigning him. When Healthy Bynum presents a low post presence that every team would love to have. I would love to have Bynum on the Celtics but that ever lingering injury bug makes his less valuable.

Last but not least I have Josh Smith as a possible target for Boston. It would still leave Boston with a need at the 5 spot but Smith is a very talented player who can defend, rebound and run the floor. His relationship with Rondo could also come into play as the Celtics contemplate their next major move.

Here is the bad part. We cannot sign any high end free agents becasue we do not have enough Cap space.

I suppose that Boston could trade for one of these players particularly if their current tean knows that they could lose them and get NO compensation. Pierce is the most likely candidate because he will have an expiring contract and the Amnesty provison could help some team looking to reduce their cap numbers.

Should DA have moved Allen last year to get mayo...Yes.

Should DA have moved Paul this time? Only if it was for a front line big and that was not going to happen this time around.

Should DA have moved KG? It was not up to DA. KG holds all the cards on this one.

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Post by gyso Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:01 pm

Signed July 15, 2010 for an assumed $61,333,334 for 4 years.
2013-14 is partially guaranteed for $4,000,000.
2013-14 is a Player Option.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/piercpa01.html

Scroll all the way to the bottom

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Post by dboss Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:14 pm

GYSO

So the player option means that PP could opt out and become a free agent?

If he does not opt out then Boston could cut him and just pay $4 Million?

At what point would the entire salary be guarnateed?

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Post by k_j_88 Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:18 pm

Dboss: If they don't waive PP and if he remains with the team that season, I believe he gets paid in full.
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Post by dboss Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:36 pm

KJ88

Okay but at what point does the contract become fully guaranteed? In other words what is the Dump date for letting him go?
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Post by swish Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:39 pm

gyso wrote:
Signed July 15, 2010 for an assumed $61,333,334 for 4 years.
2013-14 is partially guaranteed for $4,000,000.
2013-14 is a Player Option.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/piercpa01.html

Scroll all the way to the bottom

59. Can existing contracts be renegotiated?
A contract for four or more seasons can be renegotiated after the third anniversary of its signing, extension, or previous renegotiation (if the previous negotiation increased any season's salary by more than 4.5%). Contracts for fewer than four seasons cannot be renegotiated. A contract cannot be renegotiated between March 1 and June 30 of any year.

Only teams under the cap can renegotiate a contract, and the salary in the then-current season can be increased only to the extent that the team has room under the cap (and cannot increase the player's salary beyond the maximum salary). A renegotiation can only be used to provide a salary increase -- players can't take a "pay cut" in order to create more cap room for the team

gyso
Is the above link taken from Larry Coon a factor?
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Post by k_j_88 Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:42 pm

Are players paid incrementally as opposed to lump sums?
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Post by swish Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:45 pm

dboss wrote:KJ88

Okay but at what point does the contract become fully guaranteed? In other words what is the Dump date for letting him go?

dboss
I believe its July 1st.
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Post by RosalieTCeltics Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:04 pm

Didn't Pierce say during the summer or at the beginning of the season that he just might op out of his contract and see what it feels like to be a free agent?
I do think alot of that was due to the Ray Allen reaction, (Miami courted Ray and fell all over him, just what these players love)? So, if he opts out, can he then, after taking offers (?) from other teams, resign with the Celtics for a "team friendly" salary?

Just asking

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Post by swish Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:24 pm

I'm getting more confused by the minute. If its Pierce's choice why would he not take the 15 mil. I must be missing something here. HELP!

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Post by tjmakz Sat Feb 23, 2013 2:24 am

Many respected websites show that Pierce's contract is a partial guarantee which could turn into fully guaranteed if Pierce is not waived by 6/30/13. There are no players in the NBA that have partially guaranteed player options. KG has a similar partial guarantee in 2014-15. Next year Pierce, Chris Duhon, Al Harrington, Richard Hamilton, Turkoglu and Matt Bonner are the players who have partially guaranteed contracts for 2013-14.

Also, according to ShamSports, Paul Pierce's 2013-14 contract is only $4 million guaranteed (jumping to $5 million if he reaches an expected game-appearance milestone this season).

Pierce's nonguarantee (he must be waived before June 30 next year or his salary is fully guaranteed) offers an intriguing question about how the Celtics might proceed next season.


http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4696657/now-and-later-cs-salaries-in-focus

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Post by tjmakz Sat Feb 23, 2013 2:28 am

swish wrote:I'm getting more confused by the minute. If its Pierce's choice why would he not take the 15 mil. I must be missing something here. HELP!

Swish

You are correct. It makes no sense to have a player option partially guaranteed contract.
They do not exist.
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Post by tjmakz Sat Feb 23, 2013 2:31 am

dboss wrote:KJ88

Okay but at what point does the contract become fully guaranteed? In other words what is the Dump date for letting him go?

6/30/13 is the date Pierce has to be waived by.
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Post by gyso Sat Feb 23, 2013 10:09 am

gyso wrote:
Signed July 15, 2010 for an assumed $61,333,334 for 4 years.
2013-14 is partially guaranteed for $4,000,000.
2013-14 is a Player Option.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/piercpa01.html

Scroll all the way to the bottom

basketball-reference.com: Respected website or website to be avoided?

As I said earlier, the many websites do not all agree on Pierce's contract. At least one says it is player option.

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Post by tjmakz Sat Feb 23, 2013 11:37 am

gyso wrote:
gyso wrote:
Signed July 15, 2010 for an assumed $61,333,334 for 4 years.
2013-14 is partially guaranteed for $4,000,000.
2013-14 is a Player Option.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/piercpa01.html

Scroll all the way to the bottom

basketball-reference.com: Respected website or website to be avoided?

As I said earlier, the many websites do not all agree on Pierce's contract. At least one says it is player option.

I do understand your point.
It's clear that some references are correct and some aren't.
The players that I have listed in an above post all have partial guarantees which will be determined by their teams.

Basketball-reference.com also uses the term "assumed" when describing Pierce's salary. They normally don't list many contract details other then salary.
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