DOOM! DESPAIR! ... or ... Danny has a Plan?

by **gyso** Sat Mar 02, 2013 1:16 pm

By mmmmm on Feb 22 2013, 12:24a
CelticsBlog FanPost:

Just to get the punch line out of the way: Yes. Danny has a plan.

Actually - he has more than one plan. But they all lead basically to the same place - rebooting the team as a contender somewhere around 2016. So collectively, let's call them: The Plan

Caveat: Okay, another 'acually' is that much of this is conjecture. I am not privy to Danny Ainge's inner thinking. But if you read this, I think most will agree it's a reasonable reading of the tea leaves.

I know that there is much crying and wailing right now by a segment of the fan/media base who can't believe Danny didn't just 'blow it up' by somehow working out trades of Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce for, 'young assets' that he could use down the road to rebuild the team the same way he did in 2007. This segment of Celtic nation is understandably worried that we are headed for some sort of 'mediocrity trap' from which it will take 15-20 years to emerge.

I'm going to propose that that isn't going to happen.

In my opinion, Danny has a plan. Danny's plan has had several possible paths. Before 3 pm EST today, it had more paths. Some of those paths are now off The Plan. But the plan still proceeds.

First, let's go over the path that no longer is possible.

Suppose Danny had found attractive deals for Pierce and KG that could have worked out (including getting KG's approval). What we would have now would be a collection of younger players, with potential to grow in value over the next couple of years. But we would not have KG and Pierce. We would most definitely have become a worse team for the rest of this year. Probably not bad enough to end up with a lot of balls in the lottery, though, if any. And we'd probably worse next year as well. But we'd be younger and the players would improve. And eventually, in 2-3 years, they'd have value and we could potentially deal some for one or two big name players and turn back into a title contender, say, right around 2016-2017 or so.

That sounds like a very legitimate path and I think Danny really worked his butt off to explore it and make it work if it made sense. As we know, it didn't work. Either he couldn't get the value he wanted or KG wouldn't approve or both. So that road through The Plan is dead.

There are other paths.

In summary: Relax.

All roads through The Plan(tm) in the end, lead to a similar destination: Acquire the next superstar players somewhere around the 2016 season. Depending on the market, we may have to wait a year or so after that point. But that's the point at which Danny will have the tools to pull the big trigger.

The only difference between all these roads is how competitive we are for this season and the next one or two. I think Danny and Doc feel we are probably more competitive this year and next with Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce than without. And I agree.

For the rest, use the link:

http://www.celticsblog.com/2013/2/22/4016162/doom-despair-or-danny-has-a-plan

When you finish reading the FanPost, continue to read the comments below.

I hope you enjoy the article. IMO, mmmmm (AKA 5m's) is a very good writer, he knows how the sal-cap works and presents a logical argument. He does have a very optimistic viewpoint (some may say too optimistic) but that works for me!!

gyso

PS: I didn't think the link in his article works, so here it is:

Check out the list of 2015 free agents:

http://www.hoopsworld.com/2015-nba-free-agents/

by **mrkleen09** Tue Mar 05, 2013 2:54 pm

Any article about something as unpredictable as sports (with all the injuries and other unforeseen issues) that projects out to 2016 or 2018 - kind of loses me.

This guy has no idea what is going to happen....this summer, let alone for the next 3 to 5 years.

If (for example), Rondo comes back strong, AB, Sully and Lee continue to improve, Jeff Green becomes a 15 ppg scorer - and the Celtics can grab a couple of decent big bodies to play alongside KG and Pierce - they could easily be right back in the hunt next season.

I would rather take each year on its own - and enjoy the ride...rather than bury our heads in the sand until 2016 or 2018.

by **worcester** Tue Mar 05, 2013 10:51 pm

Who says we're not in the hunt this season? Who says the Heat, Thunder, Knicks or Spurs don't incur some of the injuries we've experienced?

by **cowens/oldschool** Tue Mar 05, 2013 11:39 pm

For a team that lost their starting point guard and best young rookie glass eater, I'd say were doing pretty good. I think right now KG is in the mix for all NBA defensive first team, AB has got to be first team, and its not even close, as the guy he was matched up with made the all star team, and I'd easily take him over Holiday anyday. This team is gonna challenge in the playoffs- no question!!!

Saw game tonite, Evan Turner is not a better player than Jeff Green in anyway and hes better than Derrick Williams, Harrison Barnes and Michael Kidd Gillhurst and JG is our reserve behind who? oh yeah that HoFer. Pierce at 35 at worst is the 5th best SF in the game. We have some good damn pieces, were 5 deep at guard right now without Rondo, we have 2 players at SF that are at an all star talent level.

If Rondo is back next year and makes the necessary adjustments and you know there is growth in the games of AB, Green, Sully, Lee, Crawford, T Will....or if we can acquire a Big Al or Favors and keep KG and Pierce. I think we can contend for the next 2 years regardless of moves Danny may or may not make.

by **gyso** Wed Mar 06, 2013 7:52 am

I believe the author is saying that blowing up the team now is a bad plan. If KG and Pierce retire after this season, the result is the same as blowing up the team. If Danny blows up the team, the next step is to start aquiring assetts.

He says that we are actually already aquiring assets, with KG and Pierce still on board. Danny added T-Will and J-Craw for next to nothing. If they don't pan out, their contracts can be added to another player's contract and then be traded for a better asset. It isn't always the quality of the players that makes a trade work, it is the combination of the contracts. Remember how Sean Williams was picked up last season and then was carried into the next summer? His contract made the trade for Courtney Lee possible.

I think Tommy said last night that KG understands that by pacing himself, he can (and wants to) stretch it out a couple more years. Who is better than KG that we can actually sign? It makes no sense to trade KG away, just for the sake of making a move. That is just bad business.

I agree with cowens that Pierce is still one of the top players at his position. With Jeff Green as his primary backup, what team has a better set at the SF position? It makes no sense to trade Pierce away, just for the sake of making a move. Again, that is just bad business.

I believe that last summer, Danny positioned the Celtics to be competitive for the next 2-3 years. As mrkleen says, all we need to do is add a couple bigs to play with KG and Pierce and we can still be in the hunt. If we were to trade Pierce or KG, or if they just retire, we won't be.

I know which option I prefer.

gyso

by **pete** Wed Mar 06, 2013 8:03 am

gyso,

Well said!

Pete

by **cowens/oldschool** Wed Mar 06, 2013 9:24 am

I also was trying to make a point that even if we could work out a deal for a top pick, that its still so hard to find a player like Paul Pierce, I mean even as a rookie, remember how good he was? don't see that immediate impact with any young wings today, they are all projects....alot of them show something in college, then amount to nothing at this level. Pierce at 35 still has at least 2 more good seasons left. League is full of Adam Morrison's, Tyrus Thomas, Marvin Williams, Michael Beasley's, we even had some with Gerald Green. All these players are younger than Pierce, younger doesn't mean better.

Danny has done a great job, other than passing on DeAndre Jordan, look at all the great picks, Rondo, Big Al, AB, Sully, nobody drafts in late rounds better and love these under the radar trade/signings of Crawford and T Will.

by **rickdavisakaspike** Thu Mar 07, 2013 3:29 pm

Danny's the closest thing to Red we can get and Red didn't get rid of talent. So I wouldn't expect to see Rondo or anybody else traded any time soon. With Rondo and Sully back next year, this will once again be a hearteningly deep team.

Watch both Rondo and Sully will be different players next year.

What's going on with Green playing behind and/or beside Pierce, is very much like what happened with Havlicek and Sam and KC Jones. Many people thought that one of the reasons those three became so great was because they had that extra time to learn and develop and gain confidence. The question is, does he have the killer instinct? So far, so good.

by **cowens/oldschool** Thu Mar 07, 2013 10:53 pm

gyso we already have one of those new bigs for next year, hes rehabbing his back, got valuable experience this year, and with his health, knock on wood, can play a bigger skilled physical big man role. Sully is gonna prove to be as big a steal as Rondo and AB as a late draft pick, he already has a knack for making the right play, has a nose for the ball and his range will get better and better as will AB's shooting range.

On Rondo I can go either way, happy to have him back, he'll make adjustments and he can go even harder as I don't think he'll have to pace himself, with our backcourt depth he can start playing lesser minutes and be more effective in those minutes, hes got to stop pacing himself. Docs got to find a way to maximize his talents and get things moving faster and more freely in a system that Rondo does not over dominate the ball, could be done. If he can be part of a package for us to get a good young center, a real CENTER, thats good too, that will help us further down the road too. Now we have the 2 bigs.

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