Jeff Green Deserves An Apology

Music to Jeff Green's biggest supporter's ears, no doubt. Good eyes, MrKleen. Danny saw it first, but you were a close second. :-)

I'm normally not a big fan of Ben Rohrbach, he's just another hack writer trying to make a buck, but I like that he is calling this board's favorite pet idiot, John Hollinger, out. The best part, aside from the part where he quotes Hollinger and makes him look like a doofus, is where he also points out Jeff Green's PER, the pet idiot's pet statistic, is still below the league average 15.0. Rather than Jeff Green's contract being the worst of the season, it's looking like Memphis' contract with Hollinger is.


http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/basketball/celtics/ben-rohrbach/2013/04/01/jeff-green-deserves-apology


JEFF GREEN DESERVES AN APOLOGY
Mon, 04/01/2013 - 3:42pm



"There's no evidence he's actually any good." -- John Hollinger on Jeff Green, October 2012

Is it OK to say Jeff Green is actually good at basketball now? Or does anyone who sees value in him still face ridicule from NBA statheads who insisted he wasn't worth the Celtics uniform that fit his 6-foot-9, 235-pound frame?

Just about every knowledgeable national NBA writer roundly blasted Celtics president Danny Ainge's decision to re-sign Jeff Green this past summer for four years and $36 million. Hollinger, a former ESPN.com columnist and current vice president of the Grizzlies, was chief among them, asking, "Can they amnesty Green yet?"

"I can't stress this enough: Green is 26 and played four full seasons in the league, and after all that time there's no evidence he's actually any good and considerable evidence that he's a health risk," wrote Hollinger, who developed the game's Player Efficiency Rating. "Yet he's being paid like a second-tier star. This was, without a doubt, the worst contract of the summer."

Although Green's PER this season of 14.37 is the highest of his career (per HoopData), it's still subpar by Hollinger's standards. And he wasn't the only prominent basketball intellectual to pile on Green in the aftermath of his four-year deal.

"If I'm going to pay a guy $36 million, I want to at least point to one thing -- one stat, one piece of data -- that says this player helps the team win games and perform better on the floor," Zach Lowe said in August, before switching from Sports Illustrated to Grantland. "That doesn't exist for Jeff Green anywhere in his track record of NBA play. That's what's scary."

Heck, even rival general managers jumped on the bashwagon.

"You're talking about a guy who you're now making a part of your future who Oklahoma City knew they couldn't win a championship with," an NBA GM told Sam Amick in September, before his switch from SI to USA Today. "He doesn't have a position. He doesn't rebound it well enough to be a power forward, he doesn't shoot it well enough to be a small forward, he isn't quick enough to be a small forward, so you can't replace Kevin Garnett and you can't replace Paul Pierce."

Even they must admit that this season has offered enough evidence to show the uber-athletic forward is, indeed, good.

After shaking off the rust of missing an entire season due to heart surgery, Green owns averages of 16.6 points (60.0 TS%), 4.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.4 blocks in 32.7 minutes a night over the past two months. In that stretch, he's plus-23 in 33 clutch minutes, including game-winners against the Pacers and Cavaliers. In nine starts for either Paul Pierce or Kevin Garnett, including his 43-point effort against the Heat, he's produced 22.7 points on 13.4 shots per game.

And Green isn't just making an impact on the offensive end. His 99.6 defensive rating this season sandwiches him between LeBron James and Kevin Durant (per NBA.com/stats). And his 0.79 points allowed per possession this year ranks higher than any forward not named Garnett to make either of last season's NBA All-Defensive rosters (per Synergy Sports).

Think the Thunder wish they still had Green for a potential NBA Finals rematch against Miami? In three meetings, the Celtics are 14.7 points per 48 minutes better against the Heat with Green opposite LeBron. Or perhaps Oklahoma City would still rather have Kendrick Perkins' 4.3 points (46.4 FG%) and 6.1 rebounds for $8.5 million a year.

Given Green's previous best PER (13.74) and defensive rating (104.1), ineffecient shooting numbers in Oklahoma City (44.3 FG%) and his consistently low rebounding rate, Hollinger, Lowe & Co. had every right to criticize Green's performance.

But did the analysis go too far? After all, Green earned First Team All-Rookie status in 2008, averaged 14.2 points over three-plus seasons in OKC and started for a Thunder team that won 50 games in 2009-10. There were signs. Not to mention his pre-draft wingspan (7-foot-1), vertical leap (38.0), strength (benched 185 pounds 17 times) and other such measurements.

Ainge understood Green's health risk better than anybody in the media, and he also understood the reward. Or maybe he should've signed Gerald Wallace for four years, $40 million. Or Michael Beasley for three years, $18 million. Or, as Hollinger's Grizzlies did, trade for a 33-year-old Tayshaun Prince, who has two more years and $15 million left on his contract.

In other words, give the C's president some credit for recognizing Green's post-surgery potential.

"Is he an elite talent in this league? I believe so," Celtics teammate Jason Terry recently told Mut & Merloni. "If he didn't have that surgery, you'd be talking about an All-Star. He's an All-Star caliber player, and again, the way he's playing right now, if he continues to do that through the playoffs, we'll be right there in the finals. I believe he's the X-factor."

Not sure if there's a stat for this, but All-Star caliber players are usually pretty good at basketball.


bob


.

Not only does Jeff Green deserve an apology from all those naysayers out there but I think the board, as well as the Celtics, deserves an apology from those who wrote the Celtics off this season and said they couldn't make the playoffs this season.

Admit it, YOU WERE WRONG!

now on to #18
mulcogi

bob,

You are thinking of Green playing the way he is now, but his PER is based on his full season stats. Jeff is not a good rebounder or a distributor. With low rebound and assist numbers, his PER will be limited.

His good defense doesn't get calculated in the PER.

Bobh,
Thanks for the article.
IMHO, JG is approaching the level he's paid for. If he continues to move in that direction I'd say Danny got a bargain.
Speaking about Hollinger - charlatans don't usually issue apologies.

AK

tjmakz wrote:bob,

You are thinking of Green playing the way he is now, but his PER is based on his full season stats. Jeff is not a good rebounder or a distributor. With low rebound and assist numbers, his PER will be limited.

His good defense doesn't get calculated in the PER.

TJ,

Right on all counts. His PER is a season-to-date number. So, playing into shape after surgeries like Green has gone through (Dwight Howard as well) dilute the number and therefore do not reflect the player's capabilities, nor does it highlight what kind of system the player plays better in. Put Barbosa into a slow, methodical halfcourt team and he won't look as good as when he is in a high-volume up-and-down type of team. One of my major beefs about PER, and Sam's as well, is that it is notoriously deficient in evaluating defense. I believe even Hollinger admits that.

Here's some of his season split stats:

..........................G......GS...Mins.....fga-fgm.....3gm-ga......ftm-fta.....OR.....DR.....Tot.....Ass.....Stl.....Blk........Pts
As a Starter........11.....11...419......90-160......20-37........48-64......10....55.......65......37......12.....18.......248
As a Substitute...64......0....1646....251-567....43-130.....150-181....40...177....217.....78......40.....50........695

Keeping in mind that he plays more mpg as a starter, his numbers are still better as a starter. I'm referring specifically to those that reflect rhythm like shooting, 3ptfg% and assists. Ft% and rebounding don't require playing time to ramp up. You either can do them or you can't. Courtney Lee is another player who plays better as a starter. Some players, like Bradley, it doesn't really make a difference and a few, like Jason Terry, actually like coming off the bench.


bob


.

Deals like Jeff Green's are a risk, and it's nice to see the risk rewarded in his case.

To be fair, what he had the most of coming into this season was potential and a huge scar running down his chest. I've been a proponent of the OKC trade, but Green has performed better in the second half of this season than most anyone could have expected. Even though Hollinger characterization of Green's contract was way off base and it's always fun to take a whack at the board's resident pinata, there were valid reasons to question the contract Ainge gave Green.

Still, if Hollinger is going to make pronouncements like that, he should be willing to admit when he's wrong. But people who make pronouncements like that are often the least likely to admit they were wrong.

Somehow, I don't think Jeff Green will lose any sleep waiting for a phone call from Hollinger.

Even as the unquestioned Chairman of the Bored of John Hollinger Haters Enterprises, I can't blame him for not feeling all that bullish about Green back at a time when Jeff had enjoyed a good but not outstanding career with the Thunder, had struggled to fit into the Celtics scheme in his abbreviated first season with the Celts, and was a bit of an unknown as to how his health status would work out.

But I can definitely lambaste Appalllinger for being a pop stat hack who egregiously lacks the one ingredient that most separates the men from the infants in the world of successful basketball execs and media legends.

That one ingredient that constantly eludes Appallinger is VISION.

If he had to rely on judgment or instinct about the game instead of on statistics, he'd be seven degrees below useless. And, if he's relying on stats that he generated, chances are they're at least semi-bogus. The guy never met an intangible he didn't spit on.

PER is an alleged stat that beautifully exemplifies what Appallinger is all about. Appallinger admits that the formula contains no indicator of defensive performance (although such stats now exist), and then he blithely barges ahead and uses the measure as if no such limitation exists. His acronym, "PER," stands for "Player Efficiency Rating"...NOT "Player Offensive Rating."

In his zeal to make some kind of splash with his hack approach to stats, he calculates PER for current and older players alike, despite the fact that portions of his formula call for stats that weren't even recorded in the old days. He tries to adjust for that frailty by developing other ersatz formulas to estimate what Bill Russell's block stats would have averaged or what John Havlicek's steal numbers would have averaged or what Oscar Robertson's turnovers would have averaged or how Wilt Chamberlain's rebound total would have been divided into offensive versus defensive boards.

Appallinger apparently takes the approach that, as long as he makes a formula long and/or complex enough, people will fog out and won't bother to apply some logic to assessing the formula's value. They just accept it, use it all the time, and can look it up for every NBA player of all-time in a widely used resource such as Basketball Reference.

Here is a list of relatively prominent players that I randomly came up with at center, forward and guard, ranked according to Hollinger's careerPERs for each:

Center:

26.4 Shaq
26.1 Wilt
24.6 Kareem
21.7 Bob Lanier
19.8 Walt Bellamy
19.3 Robert Parish
18.9 Bill Russell
18.6 Demarcus Cousins
18.6 Willis Reed
17.0 Cowens

Seems about right, huh? Bill Russell #7 among these 9—in a virtual tie with Demarcus Cousins. And Cowens was definitely the bum of the 10. Yup, yup, golly gosh. Great stat.

Forwards:

27.6 Lebron James
23.9 Karl Malone
23.5 Bird
22.7 Baylor
20.0 McHale
19.4 Billy Cunningham
19.1 Bailey Howell
18.6 Pippen
17.8 Heinsohn
17.7 Worthy
17.5 Havlicek (also on the list of guards)

Equally right that Havlicek should rank 9th out of these 9. Was Karl Malone really that much better than McHale. Perhaps Karl got extra credit for all those championships he led his team to.

Guards:

27.9 Michael Jordan
25.5 Chris Paul
23.4 Kobe Bryant
23.2 Oscar Robertson
22.9 Jerry West
21.8 John Stockton
21.2 Allen Iverson
20.0 Steve Nash
19.8 Bob Cousy
19.1 Walt Frazier
18.9 Sam Jones
18.0 Tiny Archibald
17.9 John Havlicek (also on the list of forwards)
14.1 Dennis Johnson
10.4 K.C. Jones

Seems about right that Chris Paul is 2.5 times as good as K.C. Jones was as well as quite a bit better than Oscar Robertson and Kobe. And there can't be any question that Iverson and Stockton were/are both substantially better than Cousy.

Another interesting list made up of some familiar names:

19.8 Cousy
19.1 Bailey Howell
18.9 Russell
18.7 Sam Jones
18.2 Sharman
17.8 Heinsohn
16.1 Don Nelson
15.5 Frank Ramsey
13.7 Siegfried
11.9 Tom Sanders
10.4 K.C. Jones

These players were the core of the greatest sports tyranny that will ever exist, and not one of them achieved a PER of 20. I know people will say, "Well, that's because they played as a team." Duh! That's exactly the point!

Playing as a team is an intangible. Playing with heart is an intangible. Exerting leadership is an intangible. Tight rims weren't exactly an intangible, but they might as well have been. Same thing for differences in policies for crediting assist.

It's just like Smallinger to throw a bone to those concerned about intangibles by stating that he has adjusted the PER ratings by the pace at which the various players' teams played. "Yuck, yuck, I've done my duty" SmallBallinger "thinks" he can claim.

Crawlinger is the poster boy for idolizing the individual. He panders to sensationalism. He's a turd on a Snickers rack.

Sam

Thanks for the kind words Bob.

Without knowing him personally, I can't be sure - but my perception of the guy is that he is a great person, who has incredible physical skills and the talent of an all star. He is finally back to near 100% and the results on the court speak for themselves. He is clearly the most athletic player on the team - and can dominate anyone in the NBA on the offensive end.

I went back to pull a quote from the first time Bob posted this ridiculous article about Green and Hollinger - as I think it is even more appropriate now.

mrkleen09 wrote:I dont get the idea that the Celtics overpaid.

Here are some other guys in the 8 to 10 million per year category

-Laundry Fields
-Charlie Villanueva
-Rodney Stuckey
-George Hill
-Tyrus Thomas
-Shawn Marion
-Mike Conley
-Ryan Anderson
-Danilo Gillinari
-Kendrick Perkins
-Maurice Williams
-Andris Biedrins
-Caron Butler
-Meta World Peace
-Goran Dragic

So which of those guys is better than Jeff Green?

I count ZERO, but your millage may vary.

Appallinger, that's hilarious! What ever happened to Krstic? Do we still own him?

Green has definitely made a huge jump, it seems as Pierce and KG went down, he really got more oppurtunity to do everything he could do. Earlier in season he was trying to blend too much and with Rondo controlling the action, more action went to other established stars so he couldn't get the oppurtunities. Right now hes no worse than the 5th best SF in the game.

Cow,

Your mention of Rondo makes me think that some time has gone by since every single day brought more debates about whether or not the Celtics were better without Rondo. My guess is that most people agree with me that that's no longer an appropriate question.

I like to think of Rondo and the Celtics as sort of like partners in marriage who needed a little break from one another to kick back and reassess their perspectives on their relationship. It seems very likely that, if Rondo hadn't gotten injured, his teammates wouldn't have felt the freedom to seek their own level of competence within the team's system. Jason Terry is the only one I can think of who may not have discovered his relevance during this enforced "trial separation." And there's still time for him.

On Rondo's side, the fact that he has been on the bench and is even vocal during timeouts confirms to me that he's definitely tuned in to what's going on and what lessons that can be learned during his inactive status.

Regardless of what happens with KG and Paul Pierce this summer or down the road, there's every possibility that the Celtics will face the future with one of the best ball distributors and one of the best "go to" players in the league. And I'm sure Danny has also learned, during this stretch, that the third member of a trio that can backbone the Celtics for years must be a legitimate center who is not a has-been-in-waiting, doesn't have a history of serious injuries, and—most of all—can make a serious impact, especially on intimidating defense.

Sam

Sam,

I hope you're right concerning Rondo. Time will tell.

However there is no doubt that we need a legitimate center and I don't mean Al Jefferson. I'm with you. We need a strong intimidating defensive center who can block out and crash the boards.

Just seeing the difference last night between what happened when Randolph was on the floor compared to Wilcox should be enough to convince anyone of the validity of that argument. I don't mean to imply that Randolph is the answer to our problem at center (although he can surely play some productive minutes there) as he's probably a bit too small. But come to think of it, Dave Cowens wasn't all that big. Not in stature. But in heart there was no one bigger.

sam

There are many stretches when its obvious the offense is in a bad funk and we could use a real PG, especially one as gifted as Rondo. Its such a shame, I remarked on another thread you get this version of Jeff Green, doing everything the way he does right now and no way we don't beat the Heat last year. I realize earlier we were without AB and his defense makes a huge impact, so I'm not blaming Rondo for everything. Damn just realized we also didn't have AB last year vs Heat in playoffs, think this version of Green and AB could have had any impact vs Heat last year?

Then this year, no AB at beginning, now no Rondo and Sully, glad we got Randolph and T Will....if we had all our pieces this year we would be such a load. Going forward would love to keep Rondo, get rid of a combo or just enough of Wilcox, Bass, Jet, Lee or Crawford to land a Dalembert of a Derick Favors to add to the mix. I think KG and Pierce can play another year at their level....

112288 wants to amnnesty Pierce for a young stud big, well whos the player? nobodys gonna give us a Demarcus Cousins or Noah for Pierce, unless you get great value, you can't give him away for junk either.

cow

I realize Dalembert isn't young, but if you can't get a young stud piece at center, everybody wants one, he could be enough of a 7 foot shot blocking presence to play on floor when KG needs a rest and they could play together and with Sully and Randolph adding more rebounding and interior play....it could work.

Rondo has never been the problem. The problem has always been consistency. Rondo would start a half on fire, the Celtics would get a lead, then they would start playing half court, jump shoot ball. The same thing happens now more and more. At the beginning the team ran and ran, now they run and then settle. The things this team has done without their best player, the loss of other key assets, is truly amazing and a testimony to how well coached this team really is. The fact that the C's have competed so well when down a key ingredient during the Doc era speaks volumes. But we have always been missing the center we have always needed. No, Perk was never that center although he did fulfill his role much of the time. It is the glaring weakness in Danny's legacy. He has a knack for finding undersized players who outperform their size. He has never seemed to get the player who is the right size and can still play. No, I'm not talking about Fab. right size, can't play. Just wonderin, how many who would dump PP were happy with the Perk trade and what that did to team chemistry?