Dispelling Biggest Current Misconceptions about the Boston Celtics

I usually prefer to post my own original comments rather than secondary material.  But this article that appeared in today's Boston Globe seemed to be a good combination of objective reasoning and conversational catalyst concerning the Celtics' future.

I agree that there's no way of predicting, with any degree of assurance, where in the "growth curve" this team will be this season.  (I'm not a fan of the term "rebuilding," partly for reasons explained in the article.)  I actually believe the veterans may represent more of an unknown than their younger counterparts.

I have little doubt about the potential growth of youngsters like Olynyk and Sully.  I expect they'll sometimes wow us and will make mistakes at other times; but I expect the sum total of their contributions to trend upward as the season progresses.  I understand that the jury's understandably out on Pressey, but his Summer League performance and early comments from Brad have done nothing to erode my hopes for him.

I put the veterans into two groups: (1) Rondo and (2) all the others.  Assuming Rondo can recover completely (never a given where a knee injury is concerned), I hope he'll demonstrate the kind of on-the-floor leadership that will put his teammates in the maximum positions to succeed.  We pretty much know the abilities of Bass and Lee, although it's realistic to hope that, perhaps with narrowed role responsibilities, they can make greater use of their respective strengths.  And the same could be said for Bradley and Crawford.  

But I have no read on Humphries, Bogans, Wallace and Brooks.  Given a fresh start with a team on which their veteran wiles should be particularly meaningful, any or all of them might overachieve from the outset.  But will they overachieve individually or as solid role players in a quickly coalescing core that will make it easier for the young players to be assimilated?  On the other hand, they could underachieve, which could present an unfortunate deterrent to the growth of the youngsters' growth curves.

In case there's any confusion, the four headings in bold (below) are the widespread perceptions that the author is placing into question.

Sam

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Dispelling Biggest Current Misconceptions About Boston Celtics
By
Grant Rindner
(Featured Columnist) on October 4, 2013

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Perhaps no team in the league is harder to get a clear pulse on heading into the season than the Boston Celtics. The team traded away Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett to the Brooklyn Nets, but retained just enough veteran talent that its season could go about a million different ways.

The C’s are clearly not the championship contenders they were in the Big Three era, but they are also not simply an Eastern Conference doormat for opponents to pad their win totals against. Until we see what kind of product the Celts put on the floor it is nearly impossible to make an accurate assessment of how this team will finish the year.

Still, even with all of the uncertainty surrounding the NBA’s most storied franchise, there are a number of popular ideas about the team that are not necessarily true.

From the future of the franchise both short term and long term to the uses of certain personnel going forward, there are several ideas that the Boston faithful have that may not prove to be quite right when all is said and done.

Without further ado, let’s take some time to dispel four of the biggest misconceptions surrounding the Celtics as we head into 2013-14.

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The Roster is in Rebuild Mode

After dealing Pierce and Garnett it is easy to assume that Boston has just entered a full-scale rebuilding mode, but the reality is that this team, as currently constructed, is not in the bottoming-out phase of reconstruction.

Because the Celtics are still carrying a number of pieces from their days as contenders and acquired mostly veterans in the blockbuster deal with Brooklyn, 2013-14 is more of a transitional year as the team evaluates who should stay for the long haul.

In an effort to contend around Pierce and KG the Celtics signed Courtney Lee, Brandon Bass and Jeff Green during the 2012 offseason, three mid-priced veterans who are in the midst of multi-year deals with Boston.

Bass and Lee did not exactly turn heads during the 2012-13 campaign, but they are proven veterans who will be at the very least rotation players under Stevens this season.

Both are 28 years old with pretty defined ceilings, and their presence will likely take away valuable minutes from MarShon Brooks, Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk that the three would get on a team that was truly in a rebuilding mode.

Additionally, Gerald Wallace and Kris Humphries are two costly pieces who are doing nothing to help usher in a new era of Boston basketball.

While Humphries figures to be gone by the 2014 offseason at the latest thanks to his expiring $12 million deal, moving Wallace and his egregious three-years $30 million contract would truly be a breathtaking feat from Danny Ainge and company.

The Celtics are shelling out $71.2 million in guaranteed money for 2013-14, and have seven players slated to earn $5 million or more next season.

For all the hopes many Boston fans had that this team would go out and sign a Paul Millsap or a Josh Smith in the offseason, the reality is that Boston lacks the financial flexibility right now to make any kind of major move and is currently paying its players as much as some upper echelon championship contenders.

The C’s undoubtedly have some nice young talent on the roster, but until they shed their pricey veterans they will not quite have entered an outright rebuild.

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Jeff Green Will Be the Undisputed First Option Offensively

Coming off of a postseason in which he averaged 20.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists while shooting 45.5 percent from three, many fans expect Green to step in and automatically assume the first option role with Pierce gone.

While Green’s facilitating and isolation scoring duties should increase by default, it is not realistic nor in the team’s best interests for him to suddenly morph into a player who takes 18-plus shots per game or scores 20 points a night.

In many situations, Green did his best work off the ball. He can slash well and is a reliable spot-up threat, converting 48.1 percent of his attempts last season. As a small-ball 4 Green can stretch out a defense and create more driving lanes for Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley.

It was a small sample size, but Green did not play particularly well in the pick-and-roll last season, shooting 28.3 percent as the handler and 37 percent as the roll man, a sign that ratcheting up his playmaking responsibility may not be a great idea.

His three-point shooting will also likely cool off somewhat, as there is no way Green can shoot the 51.9 percent from deep that he did as a starter in the regular season. Green is a career 34.5 percent outside shooter, and fans should expect him to regress back to somewhere in the mid-to-high 30s.

Beyond the numbers, relying on Green consistently is always a risky proposition. He has no experience as a team’s offensive focal point, having spent his career alongside Pierce, KG, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.

While he has games where he is absolutely transcendent he also has problems shaking off slow starts and can be sent into a seemingly irreparable funk by a few bad plays in a row.

The Celts need to make long-term decisions about Bradley and Bass, meaning that both of them could see increased offensive responsibilities, and once Rondo returns he will resume his duty as the team’s primary facilitator and handler.

Additionally, Olynyk will need touches both on the block and on the perimeter and Sully will continue to make an impact playing down low and banging in the paint.

From a coaching standpoint, Stevens’ Butler offense was always more methodical and predicated upon ball movement and utilizing the shot clock.

While that should change somewhat as he adjusts to the pros, Stevens is still not the kind of coach to just throw the ball to Green and let him work in isolation, where he shot just 40.4 percent last season.

The 27-year-old Green will still be facing the most pressure of his career this season from a leadership standpoint, but the C’s have too many things to figure out on offense.

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The C’s Cannot Make the Playoffs in 2013-14

The once putrid bottom of the Eastern Conference has certainly improved in the 2013 offseason, but that does not mean the C’s should be eliminated from playoff contention before 2013-14 tips off.

ESPN predicts them to go 29-53, finishing at No. 12 in the Eastern Conference. Hoopsworld’s Joel Brigham concurs on the 29-53 record. CSN Chicago believes Boston will finish fourth in the Atlantic Division and miss the playoffs.

Clearly there is not much optimism around the sports world when it comes to Boston, but that does not mean Celtics fans should be throwing in the towel already.

Though this team could certainly decide to blow it up by dealing Rondo or shelving him for longer than expected, there is enough talent here so that, with a few breaks, Boston could keep its playoff streak alive.

The top five spots in the Eastern Conference are essentially guaranteed to go to the Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls, Indiana Pacers, Brooklyn Nets and New York Knicks in some order, but from No. 6 on the situation becomes much murkier.

The Atlanta Hawks figure to be close to a lock with Al Horford coming off of a strong season and the shrewd signing of Paul Millsap, but they also have a rookie head coach and lost the tremendously versatile Josh Smith in free agency.

It would be a surprise if the Hawks were not back in the postseason, but unless Jeff Teague takes a major developmental leap they could have a tougher time securing a spot than in years past.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are a team that will likely challenge for a playoff spot, but they have a rotation featuring plenty of injury prone pieces.

Can we really expect Andrew Bynum, Kyrie Irving and Anderson Varejao to all play anywhere near 82 games? Not likely.

The Washington Wizards suffered a major blow when it was announced that center Emeka Okafor will be out indefinitely as he recovers from a herniated disk, per ESPN.

Star rookie Otto Porter is also slated to miss time, albeit for a much less significant injury, as a hip flexor issue has him listed as day-to-day, according to ESPN. Obviously Porter will be healthy quickly, but missing training camp as a rookie could make his transition to the league even rockier.

With Okafor out, the Wizards are missing a valuable defensive presence as well as a locker room leader, and will have to rely more on Nene, an injury prone player himself, to handle the frontcourt.

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The tandem of John Wall and Bradley Beal are capable of dragging Washington to respectability thanks to their scoring ability and athleticism, but the fact that their roster is filled with unproven young guys and injury prone veterans means that a playoff berth is not going to come easily.

The Detroit Pistons figure to be one of the most entertaining teams in the league, but their roster is about as bizarre and unpredictable as one could possibly be.

Their floor spacing figures to be atrocious now that Smith and Brandon Jennings are in town, and rookie Kentavious Caldwell-Pope looked less than stellar as he struggled with his shot in the Orlando Summer League.

For all the hype about Andre Drummond’s raw talent and potential as a defensive stopper, he still may be a year of polishing away from being a 36-plus minutes per game player.

The addition of an experienced coach in Maurice Cheeks should help mitigate some of the consistency issues, but this is a team that was built with an eye on the future, not just an eye on a 2014 playoff berth.

While Boston has plenty of obstacles in the way of its own postseason appearance including Stevens’ adjustment to the league and the transition of Rondo, Bradley, Green and Sullinger into more featured roles, the C’s core has talent and more experience playing together than most of these squads.

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Boston is Only a Season or Two Away from Contention

Many Celtics fans are not expecting a lengthy rebuilding process, but the reality is that this team is going to need more than two years before they are ready to challenge for the NBA title once more.

Boston’s decision to give Stevens a six-year deal indicates there are not high expectations for him from Day 1, and that the franchise is going to give him the freedom to experiment with his style and to experience his share of mistakes along the way.

Stevens should be a very good NBA coach at some point, but it is going to take him some time to adjust to the pacing of the professional game, managing bigger egos and knowing how to keep his players motivated and engaged for a full 82-game slate.

As we touched on earlier, the Celtics also have a fairly murky salary cap situation until the 2015 offseason. Including cap holds and non-guaranteed money, Boston has $69 million committed for 2014-15 and that’s before making long-term decisions on Bradley, Sully and Brooks.

That lack of flexibility will make it tough for the C’s to pursue a marquee free agent, and Boston has never had a history of getting top-flight talent to sign in the offseason anyways.

This leaves the Celtics with the option of attempting to trade for another star player, but while they have plenty of draft picks to swing a deal there are not many logical names on the market.

Boston has a pair of promising frontcourt players in Olynyk and Sullinger, making it difficult to see the C’s throwing a homerun offer at the Portland Trail Blazers for LaMarcus Aldridge or the Minnesota Timberwolves for Kevin Love.

Additionally, Boston will be handcuffed by Wallace’s deal until they can find an organization willing to take him on, something that likely will not happen until his mammoth contract is closer to expiring.

At the same time, the C’s have not positioned themselves to enter the shameless tank-for-Wiggins contest quite like the Philadelphia 76ers, Utah Jazz, Orlando Magic or Phoenix Suns, making it more likely they are on the outside looking in when it comes to drafting a franchise talent in 2014.

Boston should end up with a very good player from the 2014 draft simply because of the depth in the talent pool, but a player like Kansas’ Joel Embiid is not exactly going to redefine the team for the next decade-plus.

The reality of the 2013-14 Celtics is that they are a team in flux, they do not have quite enough young talent that a clear renaissance is on the horizon, but they are also not bad enough to foresee a few elite prospects donning green jerseys in the next year or two.

With a myriad of first-round picks Boston should be able to swing a significant trade eventually, but the players who should be available in the next two years are not particularly logical fits for the Celts right now.

The Celtics are not entering a dark period like 2005-06 or 2006-07, but this rebuilding process is going to take longer than many Boston fans are hoping.

I agree, it's a good analysis of the situation.

I do have a couple of quibbles

They are, in fact, rebuilding. No, they haven't totally bottomed out like other rebuilding teams might, but "transitional year" implies the situation is short-term, and as he points out, the Celtics are not a year or two away from contending again (I expect it to be 4-5 years). It's interesting to note the he refers to the "rebuilding process" in the last line of the article.

I do agree that Jeff Green has never been the number one option offensively, but I don't see how that doesn't mean he isn't now. The only other guy who could possibly fit that description on this team is Gerald Wallace, and the rebuilding process works best if they rely more on the guys who will be here in four years, and that's not Wallace. The writer assumes that being the number one option means having one-on-one and pick-and-roll skills, but there's no one on the roster like that (despite what Jordan Crawford thinks). Even more important is that Stevens' offense isn't likely to depend on that type of player. I fully expect Jeff Green to be the leading scorer, and that's what most people think of the number one option doing.

But those are minor points. Overall, this is head and shoulders above the other crud that writers have been delivering.

Outside wrote:I fully expect Jeff Green to be the leading scorer, and that's what most people think of the number one option doing.

Totally agree....with this and the rest of your comments about the article being generally well written.

Outside,

One reason I don't like the word "rebuilding" is that it's so amorphous. Its meaning--especially in alluding to the depth of the process--depends on one's perspective.

Sam

Nice article. Very good points were made, not unlike those I've already seen here.

As far as "contention," you must compare it to the other teams that are contenders. MIA is the frontrunner but their window is closing. BKN has a small window, but will still be competitive for a few years. CHI I think will remain stagnant and won't find their way to a title match. NYK is the weakest of the top 5 teams and I expect them to clean house soon. IND is the only team that's competitive right now that has a large window.

Where does BOS fit into this? Well, after a few trades and draft years, they should be in the mix. If two significant pieces were added to this team, you're looking at a tough out for anyone in the playoffs. Boston is positioned quite well for the future; plenty of assets, draft picks, and increasing cap space flexibility.

But I do think Boston will be better than most people believe.


KJ

Hi,
I'm at the same position as Outside. Plus my notes.
Rebuilding vs transition? Is there a difference in this particular case? I'd say the team is in the rebuilding mode transitioning from a chaos into a prominence.
RE: JG. My gut feelings say that he'll be undisputed first offensive option. Last year we saw how he progressed with no indication of getting over the apex. Also, I believe he's one of those players who can rise to the occasion.
Doubt that Celtics will get into the playoffs this season.
As for contention, the author, when discussing $$$ situation, omitted $10.3M exception - this kind of money can buy a lot of talent. I believe there is a possibility of repeating 2007. Actually, there're many indications that Danny goes the same route as in 2003-2007. If some of the stars/stars align Celtics can get to the contention level in 2-3 years.

BTW, do you you know that tomorrow is the first pre-season game? 

AK

sinus/AK,

I'd say that this team is even better positioned than 2007, having more assets and draft picks to work with.


KJ

No matter you you put it, transition or rebuilding, this team is definitely changing and will continue to do so over the next couple of years. By the time we see anything close to a title contender, Wallace, Bogans Humphries and more will be gone.

I do not mind reading some of the reprints of articles out there, sometimes things get missed in a day busy with other things than Celtic news, so it is good to find it here. dboss you have always been on the cutting edge here, it is always your opinions that seem to draw alot of conversation here on the board. I enjoy it when you voice your opinion,

But, it has been a long summer, so much news out there especially before the draft. I think
you will see alot more on this board now that the season is here. I appreciate all the info I get, because I am always wondered what is happening next.

Rosalie