Accepting Jeff Green's Game

http://www.celticsblog.com/2013/12/2/5168346/the-land-of-passive-aggressive-accepting-jeff-greens-game

The land of passive aggressive: Accepting Jeff Green's game
By CJcoolgrey on Dec 2 2013, 11:05p 10


Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports



Jeff Green's on-court label couldn't be more simple: passive aggressive. Not in its typical definition, but in a more literal tense. Take the phrase and split it right down the middle. One part passive and one part aggressive. This makes up the concoction that is Jeff Green. The determining factors as to why are still mysterious, but one thing's for certain: it's who he is.

A flashy game precedes Green. He's known as a high-flyer, an overly powerful finisher at the rim. His three-ball functions, but his midrange could use work. He's not a bad passer, although he doesn't really pass much to begin with. Actually, Green only averages 1.6 assists per game, ranking him 31st among all shooting guards and 19th among all small forwards. On the other end of the floor, he's a proven stopper in one-on-one situations. He's had large success guarding the league's best player in LeBron James, and he's capable of learning top-tier defensive systems. He's lanky and strong. His build resembles that of the league's most exciting scorers (think Paul George, Kevin Durant, Joe Johnson); but he isn't them.

And that's what Boston is learning.

Back in 2011, when the Celtics pulled the trigger on a trade exchanging Green and fan favorite Kendrick Perkins, Green's label quickly became the heir to Paul Pierce's throne. To an extent, that was a dream scenario, although not completely far-fetched. Before Green landed in Boston, he was scoring 15.2 points per game. On a team featuring the high-capacity Kevin Durant, that was no easy task. But a new team (the team who technically drafted him), a new coach, and a new system left him on the outside looking in.

The next stop in Jeff Green's story is well known. Heart surgery to repair an aortic anyeurism, an existence far bigger than basketball. Nobody can speculate as to what something that ill-natured does to someone else; so I certainly won't. Yet, the seriousness of his treatment did lead to a newfound gratitude for Green and his easy-going demeanor. Post-surgery, Green stayed in Boston without actually being a member of the Celtics. An act that made sense from a medical standpoint, but also showed commitment and companionship between him and Boston's fans.

Fast forwarding to this summer, with Rivers, Pierce, and Garnett all elsewhere, we made it clear that Green's time to takeover was beginning. Rajon Rondo still recovering from his ACL tear meant there was nobody in his way; no alpha male whom he needed to defer to. For the first time in Green's career, the keys to the whip were his. But the season's start didn't prove true to expectations. Throughout the first few games of the season, we saw the same old Jeff Green. Glimpses of dominance followed by valleys of mediocrity. His game winner against Miami revived the hopes of many, some seeing it as the light Green needed to channel his inner Paul Pierce. But in the five games following that buzzer-beater, he shot an unimpressive 33.8%, totaling only four assists over the stretch.

Last week, Celtics' general manager Danny Ainge offered up an unusual but spot-on assessment of Boston's small forward. To the media, Ainge explained:

"Well, I don't think Jeff will be a focal point of our team this year...If we expect Jeff to be the focal point and turn into Kevin Durant or LeBron James or even Paul Pierce, I think that we're putting unrealistic expectations on him."

The truth can hurt.

Ainge was harsh, but also honest and correct. The thing Green and many Celtics' fans would benefit in realizing, is that Jeff isn't changing. There is no deeper layer waiting to be shown, no unrevealed secrets. His style of play allows potential for Sports Center top ten highlights; and he contributed 43 points once in a loss against Miami. The reality however, is that he isn't capable of sustaining those efforts night in and out, and he isn't a complete player.

But few are.

There's no knock on Jeff Green when saying that. For whatever reasons, his arrival in Boston came with us pushing him into an atypical category of players. A category where average players are expected to become superstars overnight. A category where (more often than not) a player's comfort goes to die. Many of us expected him to disregard steady progress in exchange for immediate stardom because we wanted it. It wasn't entirely fair to do that, and there is an honest belief, for me at least, that forcing his hand has hampered him.

Right now, Green plays at a respectable level. He attacks more, gets to the line more, and his scoring is a tick above his previous career high. He plays well alongside his teammates; especially Jordan Crawford and Jared Sullinger. On a team where player development has taken the reigns, he's doing just fine.

Plenty of players are inconsistent and slightly overpaid in this league, but few are as defined by it as Jeff Green. As Boston continues to learn what they have in their troubled small forward, accepting his game for what it is -- can and should be the next step.

Will it?




bob
MY NOTE:  Ok, the fundamental premise of the piece, which is "he is who he is, do we just accept that or demand more (and be disappointed if he doesn't deliver more)" is a good one.  Some of the evidence he uses to substantiate his points I have problems with.  For one, according to 82games.com, Jeff Green has played zero minutes at SG.  The author's citation that he ranks 31st among all SGs, therefore, is a ridiculous and meaningless metric.  As far as being 19th among all SF, that makes a little more sense except for the fact that his role is to be the finisher, not passer, and his scoring numbers would be better if Crawford ran more (he's done quite well in the half court but you don't see Crawford running full court breaks, do you?) or more Pressey.  Of course, the return of Rondo should do wonders for him and everybody else.  What is disturbing, however, are his numbers as part of 5-man units and his on court/off court offensive and defensive numbers (per 100 possessions, how many points do the Celtics score and give up with Green on the court vs when he's off he court).  Those are more disturbing that the rest, to me.

http://www.82games.com/1314/13BOS9.HTM

Still, the basic question has some validity, should we just accept Jeff Green's game for what it is, and that's just 1.0 point/36mpg more than last year and with all his shooting percentages (2pt fg%, 3pt fg% and ft%) down from last year, or expect more from a $9M player who is now a starter and has been handed Paul Pierce's scoring leadership job?

.

It will come as no surprise to anyone that I am the first to jump on this article, but the entire premise is based on an incomplete sample.

#1 - Coach Stevens is new to the NBA and it is pretty clear to me that he is very early in the process of learning what does and does not work on a nightly basis, particularly on offense.  His schemes and floor spacing have been pretty awful to this point, and there is nothing the effects a player like Jeff Green more than poor spacing.

#2 - In the midst of a great game on Friday night, I counted 5 times that Jordan Crawford missed Green up the floor ahead of his defender.  This is another major factor to Jeff's inconsistency.  A front line PG like Rondo would have found Green on 3 or 4 of those occasions, taking his 31 points to 38 or more (he is very good at converting 3 point plays)

The guy is averaging 17 points 5 rebounds and 2 assists and shooting nearly 50% from the field (he is playing more minutes and shooting more often - so of course his % is down a touch Bob) - on a team with no offensive direction and a SG forced to play PG.  Paul Pierce on the other hand, is averaging averaging 12 points and shooting 36% from the field.

As for the assertion that he isnt worth the money - here are some other players who make around the same as Jeff Green. You tell me who on this list is a better player and a better prospect for the future???

I count ZERO.

Richard Jefferson, SF Utah Jazz $11,046,000
DeAndre Jordan, C Los Angeles Clippers $10,986,550
Mehmet Okur, C Brooklyn Nets $10,890,000
JaVale McGee, C Denver Nuggets $10,750,000
Danilo Gallinari, SF Denver Nuggets $10,146,925
Gerald Wallace, SF Boston Celtics $10,105,855
Stephen Jackson, SF Atlanta Hawks $10,059,750
Tiago Splitter, C San Antonio Spurs $10,000,000
DeMar DeRozan, SG Toronto Raptors $9,500,000
Shawn Marion, SF Dallas Mavericks $9,316,796
Anderson Varejao, C Cleveland Cavaliers $9,036,364
Andris Biedrins, C Utah Jazz $9,000,000
Thaddeus Young, PF Philadelphia 76ers $8,850,000
Kendrick Perkins, C Oklahoma City Thunder $8,727,437
#70 in Salary - Jeff Green, SG Boston Celtics $8,700,000
Charlie Villanueva, PF Detroit Pistons $8,580,000
Rodney Stuckey, SG Detroit Pistons $8,500,000
Jeremy Lin, PG Houston Rockets $8,374,646
Ryan Anderson, PF New Orleans Pelicans $8,308,500
Marcus Thornton, SG Sacramento Kings $8,050,000
Caron Butler, SF Milwaukee Bucks $8,000,000

Paul Pierce was an all time great and a take charge kind of guy.  To compare Jeff Green to him and say because Green doesn't have the same fire, he is a bust is ludicrous.  Jeff Green is the best scorer on this team, the best finisher on this team, the best athlete on this team - and with Rondo, AB, Kelly and Sully - makes a very formidable nucleus.  I wish people would give the kid a break and stop comparing him to X or Y.  

He is on the road to being an All Star - like I have said for years now.  Anyone that thinks he should be moved now, before Rondo comes back and the Coach fully gets up to speed - has a serious inability to evaluate basketball talent.

Green has never been the "main guy" on a team, until now.

He has all of the tools but lacks the fire. It's unfortunate, and it'll keep him from being an elite 3 like L. James, K. Durant, and now P. George.

But just the same, I still like him as a player and he'll perform better when Rondo comes back.

And a final note, yes, without a doubt he's worth the money.




KJ

I can accept Jeff Green for what he is, which is a very good player who is capable of improving even more. Being very good consistently is the measuring stick I would use.

People see him make spectacular plays occasionally and then think the only thing preventing him from doing that all the time is because he is passive or lacks "fire" or whatever, but I don't think being that dominant player is who he is or even necessarily what the team needs.

Another reason I think he deserves a break is that it hasn't even been two years since his chest was cracked open to repair an aortic aneurysm. Most elite players are remarkably injury-free during their careers, and I can't think of any elite players past or present who have dealt with anything remotely like that. Green being very good would be more than good enough.

Jeff Green's comfort level, at least on offense, is highly dependent on feeding off the flow of the team.  He's not the kind of player who can enter a game and exert heavy influence on establishing the rhythm.  The problem is that the rhythm of these Celtics is irregular to the point of being too often ragged.

Have you ever been in a bar where some customer is ostentatiously snapping his fingers as the music plays?  Except that he never quite masters the meter of the tune.  His snap is seldom in synch with the drummer's rythym.  That's Jeff Green on a basketball court.  He has difficulty "feeling" the rhythms of Celtics basketball (or at least what passes for Celtics basketball nowadays) consistently.  He'll make a great play and then disappear for a while.

And yet this is not intended to be a knock on Jeff.  It's more a knock on a team that's struggling to establish consistent rhythm.  You think they're speeding things up, and all of a sudden they slow things down.  They follow several good sequences of points in the paint with 10 minutes of settling for jumpers.  They'll sometimes come out for the second half and go away completely from what helped them fashion a nice first half lead.

Their play too often looks like a mishmash of disjointed sequences strung together randomly rather than as part of a coordinated plan or system.  Rhythm guys suffer in this type of system where there's too much making it up as they go along.  And Jeff's not necessarily the only one.  I believe Avery Bradley, Kelly Olynyk and Courtney Lee also function better in a system characterized by a healthy sense of rhythm.  Moreover a symptom of "basketball arrhythmia" among an entire team is the presence of too many turnovers.

I'm hoping (but not predicting) that Jeff and other rhythm guys will be helped by the return of Rajon Rondo at PG.  Rondo's mind understands basketball rhythm and how to use it productively.

Go Rondo!  And Jeff!

Sam

I like Jeff Green's game, occasionally love it and am occasionally exasperated by him.

However, wake me up if and when he is an All-Star.

steve3344 wrote:I like Jeff Green's game, occasionally love it and am occasionally exasperated by him.

However, wake me up if and when he is an All-Star.

Will do Steve. You add better offensive flow from the Coach, a couple of new young players to run with the court, and a full training camp and season with Rondo - and I dont see why you cant pencil in an additional 5 ppg and 3 rpg to Green's averages. 20 and 10 are All Star numbers last I checked.

mrkleen09 wrote:

steve3344 wrote:I like Jeff Green's game, occasionally love it and am occasionally exasperated by him.

However, wake me up if and when he is an All-Star.

Will do Steve.  You add better offensive flow from the Coach, a couple of new young players to run with the court, and a full training camp and season with Rondo - and I dont see why you cant pencil in an additional 5 ppg and 3 rpg to Green's averages.  20 and 10 are All Star numbers last I checked.

If you think Jeff Green can be a 20 and 10 guy I want some of what you're smoking.

Sounds good....will keep you in mind.

mrkleen09 wrote:

steve3344 wrote:I like Jeff Green's game, occasionally love it and am occasionally exasperated by him.

However, wake me up if and when he is an All-Star.

Will do Steve.  You add better offensive flow from the Coach, a couple of new young players to run with the court, and a full training camp and season with Rondo - and I dont see why you cant pencil in an additional 5 ppg and 3 rpg to Green's averages.  20 and 10 are All Star numbers last I checked.

mrkleen,

Jeff Green is only averaging 4.4 rebounds per game this year. He'd need to add another 5.6 rebounds to get to 10. I don't see his rebounding more than doubling especially since, by his own admission, rebounding is not a strength of his.

Last year, the East all-star roster was filled out with SF Luol Deng and SF Paul George. Deng averaged 16.5ppg and 6.3rebs. George averaged 17.4ppg and 7.6rebs. George also averaged 4.1 assists and 1.8stls.

Green is in good shape to equal or better their scoring, but has quite a bit to go to equal their rebounding, especially George's. This year, both of these players are having much better years than last year.

Rudy Gay is also averaging 19.7ppg and 7.4 rebs. More competition.

He has a shot at an all-star nod, but not if he has disappearing acts.


bob


.

Those numbers are a bit misleading Bob

This season - Green is averaging 4.4 rebounds and George is averaging 5.9.  That is a lot closer than using last year's numbers.  If you use the per 36, the discrepancy is even smaller.  In addition, George spends most of his time at SG not SF ... even handling the ball a high percentage of the time, so of course his assists are higher.  Starting next year, George will be earning 4 million a year more than Green.

Deng is having a much better year than Green to this point - but is a much different player.  He averages more turnovers than Green and shoots nearly 20% lower from behind the arc.  Deng also makes 5.5 million dollars more than Jeff.

Jeff Green isnt a superstar - neither is he paid superstar money.  The ROI on his production is better than both Deng and George, and his salary (even in 2 years when he caps out at 9.4 million) allows the Celtics the flexibility to bring in other players.

Even if Steve is right....an Almost All Star for 9 million a year is a BARGAIN in the modern NBA.

mrkleen09 wrote:Those numbers are a bit misleading Bob

This season - Green is averaging 4.4 rebounds and George is averaging 5.9.  That is a lot closer than using last year's numbers.  If you use the per 36, the discrepancy is even smaller.  In addition, George spends most of his time at SG not SF ... even handling the ball a high percentage of the time, so of course his assists are higher.  Starting next year, George will be earning 4 million a year more than Green.

Deng is having a much better year than Green to this point - but is a much different player.  He averages more turnovers than Green and shoots nearly 20% lower from behind the arc.  Deng also makes 5.5 million dollars more than Jeff.

Jeff Green isnt a superstar - neither is he paid superstar money.  The ROI on his production is better than both Deng and George, and his salary (even in 2 years when he caps out at 9.4 million) allows the Celtics the flexibility to bring in other players.

Even if Steve is right....an Almost All Star for 9 million a year is a BARGAIN in the modern NBA.

Wow. If you think Jeff Green's "ROI on his production is better than... (Paul) George" who is making $3.282 million this year (and scheduled to make $15 million next year) but is averaging 24.9 PPG currently along with 5.9 rebounds and just laid 43 on the Blazers last night I DEFINITELY want the number of your dealer.

I think it is fair to compare Green to Pierce, last year's starting 3 to this year's, and we seem better off this year. Green is still improving, a much better defender, and more effective offensively this year than Pierce.
(Both players are hampered by new systems and injuries to key teammates.)
So now, the comparison is between Green, and the elite 3s.
As Rondo returns to form, I think Green will continue to improve until these comparisons are not so one-sided.
Moreover Green seems adaptable to the upbeat tempo this team needs. As for the $9 million, it's like a license photo. It looks terrible when it's first printed, but as the years go by, it looks better and better. Hawk.

steve3344 wrote:Wow.  If you think Jeff Green's "ROI on his production is better than... (Paul) George" who is making $3.282 million this year (and scheduled to make $15 million next year) but is averaging 24.9 PPG currently along with 5.9 rebounds and just laid 43 on the Blazers last night I DEFINITELY want the number of your dealer.

Do you know what ROI stands for Steve? Yes, 9 million for 17 points a game is a better ROI than 15 million for 24. It pretty simple math actually.

But no one is comparing Paul George to Jeff Green....one is a good young player, the other is a potential superstar. But 80 million dollars over the next 5 years = 16 million a year average. That puts Mr George in the upper echelon of the NBA. Pretty big shoes to fill. Glad you are so confident in his ability to bring championships to Indiana.

Steve...I will make sure that when Jeff Green becomes an all star - to mention your name in every post about him.

mrkleen09 wrote:

steve3344 wrote:Wow.  If you think Jeff Green's "ROI on his production is better than... (Paul) George" who is making $3.282 million this year (and scheduled to make $15 million next year) but is averaging 24.9 PPG currently along with 5.9 rebounds and just laid 43 on the Blazers last night I DEFINITELY want the number of your dealer.

Do you know what ROI stands for Steve?  Yes, 9 million for 17 points a game is a better ROI than 15 million for 24.  It pretty simple math actually.  

But no one is comparing Paul George to Jeff Green....one is a good young player, the other is a potential superstar.  But 80 million dollars over the next 5  years = 16 million a year average.  That puts Mr George in the upper echelon of the NBA.  Pretty big shoes to fill.  Glad you are so confident in his ability to bring championships to Indiana.  

Steve...I will make sure that when Jeff Green becomes an all star - to mention your name in every post about him.  

Yes I know what ROI means. But you obviously don't know that George is making $3.282 million THIS YEAR for his 24.9 points per game. His $15 million dollar contact doesn't kick in until NEXT YEAR. So why do you keep mentioning "15 million for 24"????? It's $3.282 million for 24. And that is a a far better ROI than Green.

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/indiana.htm

And I'd certainly prefer to pay a franchise-type player who's already being talked about as a Top 5 player in the league $15 million a year than pay a wildly inconsistent player like Green $9 million a year.  I think the Celtics would JUMP at the chance to make the swap, and feel the extra salary is way more than justified. There's your ROI comparison between Paul George and Jeff Green.

One final point on this ridiculous comparison between the ROI of Green and Paul George in which I can't believe the player you're siding with, George's average contract for this year (where he's averaging 24.9 per game) and the NEXT TWO SEASONS, going through 2015-2016 is - are you ready for this - $11.7 milliion a year. That's right, $11.7 million a year. And if you add in last year's salary where he averaged 17.4 per game at $2.5 million (while the Celtics were paying Jeff Green $8.4 million), for those four years - again going through the 2015-2016 season, George's average salary is $9.4 million a year. Not a bad ROI. And certainly way better than Jeff Green's. Ask anyone else on here who they'd choose for a better return on their investment. It won't be Green.

But isnt Paul George on some kind of rookie contract? Then you can not really use those numbers as comparison since you would be paying the same amount for LeBron James as for Darko Milicic.

For the money Green is getting paid he is providing "enough" I would say, if he would step his game up then so would his salary. Green will be a perfect advanced roleplayer for that kind of money.

Nothing against Green but George has arrived.

Last year, PG emerged as a great young player. This year, he seems to be on a mission and Indiana has the best record in the league. He's showing the same characteristics as other superstars in this league, both the desire and ability to take the team further on his back.

Green can't just "get into the game" later if he doesn't get off to a great start.



KJ

Man is fortunate to be alive let alone playing basketball. He is less than 2 years from having his chest ripped open to fix some plumbing. Think I will cut him some slack.

beat

JG definitely a 20 ppg player not sure he rebounds above 5 or 6 per.

A lot of this depends on ...fill in the blanks.

Dboss

I agree that Jeff Green won't morph into a 10-rebound per game guy. There are only 15 guys averaging 9.5 rebounds per game or more. Green's best was 6.7 rebounds per game, and that was his second season in the league. His best in Boston is 4.5. He just isn't an elite rebounder.

I do think he can sustain a stat line of 20 points on 48% shooting, six rebounds, 2-3 assists, a steal, and a block. I also think he can do that more efficiently than someone like Rudy Gay, who puts up good numbers but shoots poorly and has high turnovers (3.4 this season compared to 2.0 for Green). If Green does that, he'll be an all-star caliber player.