What's The Celtics' Ceiling With A Healthy Rondo?

WARNING!  Bleacher Report


http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1880885-whats-boston-celtics-ceiling-with-a-healthy-rajon-rondo




What's Boston Celtics' Ceiling with a Healthy Rajon Rondo?
BY DAN FAVALE (FEATURED COLUMNIST) ON DECEMBER 8, 2013




Brian Babineau/Getty Images



Inexplicable success has found the Boston Celtics, a rebuilding team fit for tanking, without Rajon Rondo. Think of what they'll be able to accomplish in a hapless Eastern Conference when he returns.

Following a 41-point thrashing of the impassive New York Knicks, the Celtics increased their hold on the Atlantic Division lead. Without Rajon Rondo. (Or Kevin Garnett. Or Paul Pierce.)

Their 10-12 record, while not great, defies logic. Rookie head coach. Injured star point guard. Overpaid veterans. Ransacked roster. This team should be horrible. Awful. Reminiscent of what we're seeing from the Knicks and Brooklyn Nets. Not atop the Atlantic Division, with the sixth-highest winning percentage in the Eastern Conference.

Sans Rajon Rondo.

Have I dropped his name enough? Can't help myself; can't even drop it enough. The Celtics don't have Rondo and this is where they're at—in the playoff picture. The thick of the playoff picture.

Threatening to become the league's least successful tank job upon Rondo's return.



Groundwork Is Laid


Know who led the team in assists heading into Sunday? Jordan Crawford (5.3). Points? Jeff Green (16.7). Know how many stars they have? Legitimately recognized superstars? Zero.


Chris Mannix        ✔ @ChrisMannixSI
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Tremendous job being done by Brad Stevens. Boston plays energized, they execute. Stevens a big reason this team has been a huge surprise
10:24 AM - 8 Dec 2013


All this without Rondo. And a bottom-10-ranked offense. Defense has carried the Celtics this far. They ranked in the top 11 of defensive efficiency before their rout of the Knicks, a standing that will only increase after allowing just 73 points. That won't likely change, even when Rondo returns. Their offense will.

Offense is Rondo's business. Setting up teammates, confusing defenses, being a general assignment nuisance—that's what he does. That's the player Boston's offense will eventually get back.

Rondo won't drill threes, and there will be times, mostly when he's not playing on national television, when you'll want to rip him out of the game, but he's a star. Legitimate star.

His career offensive rating (106), is nearly five points higher than Boston's this season (101.4). He dished out 11.1 assists per game before going down last season, roughly seven fewer dimes than the Celtics were dropping as a team 21 games into the season (18.2).

Does that scare you? If you're a fan of another Eastern Conference contingent, it should.


Jim Cavan @JPCavan
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It's almost like the Celtics are better coached and play harder and have smarter players and are a better organization and will always be.
10:11 AM - 8 Dec 2013



The East is bad; historically dreary. Boston should be right there with the rest. On some nights, it is.

On others, the Celtics are leaving Florida with a last-second victory over the Miami Heat...embarrassing the Knicks on their own turf...showing the Cleveland Cavaliers and Atlanta Hawks their rosters look good, but not good enough...proving that there is heart in this roster of outcasts and prospects before there was ever supposed to be.



How Much Better?


These Celtics, these current Rondo-less Celtics, are buying what coach Brad Stevens is preaching. Rondo himself is doing the same.

"Me and Brad have become best friends," Rondo said in October, per Boston.com's Gary Dzen. "We talk every day, we laugh and joke. We just had dinner the other night. I'm going to help him, he's going to help me."

Wait, it gets better. Less funny, more serious; less split-a-milkshake, more watch-out-everyone.

"He has my full support," Rondo continued. "I told him from Day 1 when he came to my camp that I'm behind him 100 percent. Whatever he wants to do, whatever he wants to change, I have an open mind. I'm ready to listen and to be accountable for what he wants to do."

Now this just isn't fair. An engaged, never-easy-to-coach Rondo is developing a deep-rooted rapport with his young head coach? Blasphemy.

But it's happening. A pleased Rondo will inevitably rejoin the Celtics, making an already surprising team—an already playoff-bound team—even better.

Three teams in the Eastern Conference are above .500 and four are at least .500 (see: Eastern Conference stinks), and the Celtics are right there. When Rondo comes back, if he's even a semblance of the revolving double-double he was, the Celtics could be an above-.500 team, too.

In Eastern Conference-speak, that means they could be the third-best team. Third. It could happen.




With Rondo—a healthy, committed Rondo—it will happen.



Letting It Happen


Brian Babineau/Getty Images


Things could go wrong. That happens, too. But this roster's fight won't suddenly disappear. Anything that goes wrong, that deviates from the current dynamic, will be premeditated.

General manager Danny Ainge has said numerous times the Celtics aren't tanking, and I'm starting to believe him.

gary washburn @GwashburnGlobe
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Danny Ainge to Globe: "We are not tanking. Thats ridiculous. This is the Boston Celtics." #celtics
11:47 AM - 1 Jul 2013


Sophomore Jared Sullinger has echoed those sentiments, and I believe him, too.

Baxter Holmes        ✔ @BaxterHolmes
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Jared Sullinger: "We just want to win and show everybody that they can kiss our butts about that tanking stuff."
12:36 PM - 2 Dec 2013


Kiss his butt, though, I will not—not yet.

Grantland's Bill Simmons says that Rondo "wants a max extension and wants to compete now (and not later)."

If rebuilding truly isn't something he's interested in, that contempt will rear its ugly head eventually.

Boston isn't a contender. Let's make that clear. If the Celtics make the playoffs, the magic ends there in the first or second round. Is Rondo willing to wait around beyond that? Doesn't matter. He's under contract through next season. Deal with it, Rajon.

But that's if the Celtics elect to deal with it. They say they're not tanking, but the worst place to be in the NBA—aside from one of New York's five boroughs right now—is the middle. Little is to be gained by fielding a late-lottery or early-postseason-exit team.


Blowing It Up, Part II could take place. That really could happen, too. So many things could. The temptation to rid themselves of a bad contract or two—and improve their chances of landing an impact player or two in the draft—could compel the Celtics to dampen this party.

For Rondo to make the Celtics better, the organization has to let him return. Keep him. Allow him to play.

Rondo is sprinting up and down the court, according to The Boston Globe's Baxter Holmes, but his return date, much like his future, is unknown.

Soon, the ceiling of this Boston team will be. And if they're truly committed to Rondo, and he to them, more surprises are on the way. Better victories. Better offensive sets.

Followed by the sounds of potentially 12 other Eastern Conference teams puckering up, preparing to kiss the collective butt of Rondo's Celtics.




bob



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Top 3. They are already 4th in the East without Rondo and without a completion of their chemistry.

Boston also matches up well against Miami and Indiana, considering their styles of play.


KJ

Hi,
I voted top 8.
I think a lot will depend on when RR comes back and how much time it'll take to develop chemistry between him and the rest of the team.

AK

I voted Top 3 too.  Pretty much the same reasons as KJ.  They are already 4th in the conference, only 1 1/2 games back from Atlanta, are now past Hell Month and Rondo will be back at some point.  Atlanta hasn't had any real injury issues.  They play OKC tomorrow which could get the difference down to only 1 game back.  They lose a key player and they'll drop and we're right on their heels and surging.


bob


.

I voted top 5, mainly because I think they have a decent shot at winning the division. Otherwise, I'd put them top 8.

I don't think it's realistic to expect Rondo's return to provide immediate dividends. I think he's likely to take weeks, if not the rest of the season, to shake the rust and gain some sense of normalcy. I also think that his return will lead to a disruption in chemistry and continuity that will lead to uneven performances by the team for a while.

Before the season, all the talk was about whether the C's could make the playoffs at all. It's a long season, and I don't see Boston outperforming Atlanta and Detroit over the long haul, and they'll have their hands full trying to do better than Chicago and Washington. Charlotte is doing just as surprisingly well as the Celtics. Boston is currently 6th in the conference when ranked by winning percentage. There will be injuries. Somebody at the bottom of the conference will get it together. I think sixth- or seventh-best record in the conference is a realistic goal.

KJ, Boston may match up okay with Miami, but I have to disagree with you about Indiana. The Pacers' big guys have a (literally) huge advantage over the Celtics. Sullinger and Bass may be able to lean on West, but West likes to bang inside too and has a solid mid-range game, and who do they have to stop Hibbert?

Outside wrote:I voted top 5, mainly because I think they have a decent shot at winning the division. Otherwise, I'd put them top 8.

I don't think it's realistic to expect Rondo's return to provide immediate dividends. I think he's likely to take weeks, if not the rest of the season, to shake the rust and gain some sense of normalcy. I also think that his return will lead to a disruption in chemistry and continuity that will lead to uneven performances by the team for a while.

Before the season, all the talk was about whether the C's could make the playoffs at all. It's a long season, and I don't see Boston outperforming Atlanta and Detroit over the long haul, and they'll have their hands full trying to do better than Chicago and Washington. Charlotte is doing just as surprisingly well as the Celtics. Boston is currently 6th in the conference when ranked by winning percentage. There will be injuries. Somebody at the bottom of the conference will get it together. I think sixth- or seventh-best record in the conference is a realistic goal.

KJ, Boston may match up okay with Miami, but I have to disagree with you about Indiana. The Pacers' big guys have a (literally) huge advantage over the Celtics. Sullinger and Bass may be able to lean on West, but West likes to bang inside too and has a solid mid-range game, and who do they have to stop Hibbert?

Boston can match up with Indiana, but only by using speed. Earlier in the season, Boston played them rather tough. Certainly Boston would struggle handily in a full-on half court game, but Indiana is not the most athletic team and plays a slow, methodical style.

Of course in the playoffs, who knows?



KJ

KJ,

In the game against Indiana on November 22, Boston stayed with them for a half and led 50-42 at halftime, but that was it. Indiana outscored them 25-8 in the third quarter and 30-24 in the fourth, winning by 15.

In the game on November 7 against Miami, Boston won by a point. Not that one game against each is definitive, but those two results fit with my expectations.

I agree that Indiana plays a slower style, but here's how basketball-reference.com ranks teams by pace:

http://bkref.com/tiny/K8gJZ

Given that Indiana is 22nd and Boston is 21st, I don't see the Celtics having a big advantage there.

Besides the fact that Indiana is the best team in the conference, I just don't see Boston matching up well with them. They lost by 15 last time, and Hibbert had a poor game offensively.

I think the Celtics match up much better with Miami, where Bass and Sullinger can do some damage inside without worrying about Hibbert and Green can do his thing more freely (as a Celtic, Green has averaged 20.5 points versus Miami compared to 11.0 versus the Pacers).

But hey, we'll see. They play Indiana again on December 22, but they don't play Miami again until late January, and Rondo may be back by then.

I'm with Outside. Top 5 for sure. Making it clear, Top 3 means 3rd. It's definitely a Heat/Pacers Conference Finals as of today. It's going to take Rondo 20-30 games to get back in the flow. After that, we will have a better idea what their chances are.

I haven't voted because I haven't a clue how this team is going to play with Rondo.

At the risk of raining on everyone's parade my thinking is this: Crawford shoots lights out, not only making ridiculous threes but making them in clutch situations. He does a pretty good job staying with his man on defense. There is mostly good ball movement now and ALL players are participating in this which has contributed to crushing starts in recent games (crushing to their opponents).

Is this going to continue when Rondo comes back? Or are we going to see Rondo hogging the ball thereby killing the unselfish ball movement among his teammates? Are we going to see him constantly gambling on defense and losing his man thereby creating pressure on our bigs around the basket? We know he's not going to score off jump shots ala Crawford.
And if all this is so, is this going to be an improvement?

I don't have a crystal ball and I hope Rondo gets with Stevens' program because if he doesn't I'd be in favor of moving his butt. Here's hoping that Rondo is successful adopting his game as the ceiling could be very high for this team. But I'm not sure is couldn't be higher without him.

Outside,

Boston is playing vastly different than that game against Indiana.

I think Boston is the type of team Indiana would have fits with.



KJ