Celtics, Stevens Tired of Near Misses

A couple of fans, too.  Think of it.  Brad Stevens has lost as many games this year as he lost in 6 years at Butler.  Even taking into account the shorter NCAA season, that's a lot to have to chew on and swallow for someone who came from a winning team.


http://espn.go.com/boston/nba/story/_/id/10746008/boston-celtics-brad-stevens-growing-weary-misses



Celtics, Stevens tiring of near misses
Updated: April 7, 2014, 9:08 PM ET
By Chris Forsberg | ESPNBoston.com



WALTHAM, Mass. -- Likely because he was going to be awakened by the image replaying in his subconscious over and over again anyway, Boston Celtics coach Brad Stevens said he watched Jerryd Bayless' late-game 3-point attempt against the Detroit Pistons roughly 20 times in the immediate aftermath of another narrow loss.

Each time, Bayless' shot got about halfway down and rattled back out. Each time, the Celtics lost their eighth straight game and 13th in 14 tries. Each time, Stevens lamented just how close his team has been to victory only to watch things go the other way.

Stevens knew there would be losses this season. But what he says keeps him up at night are the games that Boston could have stolen.



Raj Mehta/USA TODAY Sports
Jerryd Bayless reacts after missing a 3-pointer near the end of the Celtics' loss at Detroit.


This season, the Celtics have played 46 games in which they have either led or trailed by five points with less than five minutes to play, and 30 of those were a one-possession game in the final minute, according to the league's statistical database.

You can make the case that, with a few more fortuitous bounces and clutch play, the Celtics would be spending these final days of the 2013-14 season competing for a playoff spot in a downtrodden Eastern Conference rather than jockeying with the likes of Orlando for prime lottery position.

With five games remaining, Stevens would like nothing more than for his team to show progress by finding a way to win any remaining games that go down to the wire.

"In the big picture, what bothers me and what I'm going to study and get better at is we have had some opportunities to win the close games," Stevens said. "I think there's a lot of factors that have ultimately played into why, but it's been fairly inconsistent.

"Sometimes it's one thing, sometimes it's another. But at the end of the day, those are the ones that drive you nuts, and I've got to spend a lot of time looking at them and spending a lot of time trying to fix it over the next five games."

The Celtics owned a 19-point second-half lead Saturday in Detroit, but the Pistons rallied and Boston, maybe sensing another game slipping away, couldn't catch itself.

Down two in the closing moments, Bayless dribbled the ball across half court and, having made his first five 3-pointers of the game, he pulled up over Rodney Stuckey on the right wing. The ball got about halfway down the cylinder before catching a bit of back iron and ricocheting from back to front to back again before popping out as an incredulous Bayless pounded the floor in frustration.

At this point of the season, with Boston eliminated from postseason contention and lottery-bound, every loss aids the Celtics' chance at a higher draft pick. That doesn't make it any easier on Stevens to stomach those close calls.

Here's what we know:

• The Celtics are 14-32 in games in which they either led or trailed by five points during the final five minutes of the fourth quarter. Those 46 games are tied for second-most in the league behind only Toronto (51), and Boston's .304 winning percentage in that category is second-worst to only basement-dwelling Milwaukee (.237 winning percentage in 38 such games).

• Narrow that criteria to the final three minutes of a one-possession game (+/- 3 points) and Boston is 11-25 (.306 winning percentage), while still tied for the second-most instances (36). What stands out is the Celtics' offensive struggles in those games, with Boston shooting just 32.8 percent during that crunch-time block and being a league-worst minus-55 in plus/minus under that scenario.

• In the final minute of a one-possession game (+/- 3 points), Boston is 10-20 and its stat line is even more cringe-worthy as the Celtics shoot 27.5 percent and have been outscored by 25.

• What's maybe most incredible is how much Boston struggles in coming from behind in close games. When tied or behind by five or fewer points during the final five minutes of a game, the Celtics are just 6-32 (.158 winning percentage). When the Celtics are tied or down by three or fewer entering the final 30 seconds of a game, they are 2-19 (.095 winning percentage).

In the big picture, Boston's problem is simple: The team simply doesn't make enough plays when it matters most. Truth be told, Stevens would prefer his team play well enough over the first 43 minutes of games to prevent it from even being in those tight situations so often. But good teams find ways to win those sorts of games and Stevens wants his team to thrive when they are in clutch situations.

"More often than not, we haven't made enough plays in those moments," Stevens said. "And sometimes it's just a matter of bounces, right? You hate to put in all this time and effort and then say a bounce didn't go your way.

"But Jerryd's ball was down the other night. I will say this, I watched it about 20 times and I was like, 'Just go in!' hoping it would. But it didn't, so you reconvene and you try to control what you can control so that you are not in that position where you have to rely on a bounce to get a win."

The Celtics own a 23-54 record, the fourth-worst mark in basketball. Boston needs at least one win over its final five games to ensure finishing with a better mark than the 2006-07 squad (24-58), which owns the second-worst winning percentage in franchise history (only the 1996-97 Celtics were worse at 15-67).

You can tell it eats at Stevens that his team will be lumped with some of the most unsuccessful squads in franchise history. Boston has been competitive enough in many games to deserve a better fate, or at least be remembered more fondly.

Stevens hopes the lasting image of his team isn't of the group that got throttled in Washington last week, but the scrappy bunch that found a way to win in Miami on a last-second buzzer-beater. These last five games offer a chance to show progress in an area of concern.

"I hope that we don't look at the Washington game and say, 'That's a normal occurrence.' It was a back-to-back, we did not play well, but hopefully we play with a better look the rest of the way and a better toughness," Stevens said.

"Based on Saturday, I feel like we will. We're talking about it all the time -- staying in the moment, playing in the moment, playing to be the very best that you can be on a given day. You know what else, a lot of these guys are young in their careers, every minute they play matters. And it matters not only for us collectively, but also for them individually."

Stevens sees these final games as a chance for his players to show they are better than their record indicates -- even if it comes at the expense of lottery position.

"It's really important to do your best and go after it every single day," Stevens said. "This is a real challenge. I talked about it the other day, you find out a lot about people with five games left in a season when you're on an eight-game losing streak.

"To be honest, we were in a lot of those games and played pretty darn well. The two games that kind of stick with you are the Washington and Philly games because I didn't feel that we played as well. But we will find out a lot about ourselves.

"It's challenging. It's a challenging thing for us as coaches. It's a challenging thing for the players. The task is the task. And you get up the next morning and go after it."



bob


.

Bob, First, thanks for posting this and all the other stories, stats, and analysis. I can't get enough and read everything posted. When I take issue with something passed on here, it's never intended to discount the contributions of a board member, only to question the story, etc.
I start with that disclaimer, because we need to be especially nice to each other in this losing season. Patience is stretched by adversity and we have at least two opposite opinions on the value of winning our remaining games.
When I read... "You can make the case that, with a few more fortuitous bounces and clutch play, the Celtics would be spending these final days of the 2013-14 season competing for a playoff spot in a downtrodden Eastern Conference rather than jockeying with the likes of Orlando for prime lottery position.
"With five games remaining, Stevens would like nothing more than for his team to show progress by finding a way to win any remaining games that go down to the wire"...I see red, even Red.
I look upon the Celtics' losing close games, often being competitive with the League's best, yet ultimately falling short, as either a divine blessing or a well-executed strategy that may position us for a serious playoff run fairly soon. It certainly bodes well for the future that we're already competitive, but have a record that may be rewarded in June.
To this fan's way of thinking, the last thing we want to do is reduce our chances for a great draft pick for the short-term pleasure of kicking someone's *ss. Much has been said about how the draft has no guarantees, and I agree. Life has no guarantees. Would the players feel better about themselves if they win? No doubt, but each win has the potential to reduce the value of our first pick - either as a trade-worthy asset or as a top college player coming our way.
My view is the NBA set the draft policy, the same as it set the 3-point line. Those are the rules and we are asked to play by the rules. The draft rule rewards losing, possibly because its proponents believed that no one would overtly try to lose - for the shame of it. To an extent, it has worked, but I think we see a lot of covert losing strategies, and if that's what the Celtics have been employing, I see no reason not to continue. That's playing by the rules.
With so few games remaining and such a dismal record, why try to develop chemistry and knock off the 76ers or the Hawks? Several players here now won't be here next year or beyond, so any cohesion won't survive the summer. Next November, we won't be thinking about that great game in April when some, perhaps by-then former Celtics rose to the occasion of beating team X. We've already beaten the current champs twice and nearly qualified for good ration of ping pong balls.
Let's get 'em; let's land a couple of good players either through the draft or trade and come roaring back in the fall. We all remember June '08 and no one cares about April '07, although I think many of us lament the nearly countless years of getting nowhere because our mediocre record entitled us to only continued mediocrity. Hawk.

I will simply add I can NEVER root for the Celtics to loose PERIOD. Not no how not no way. We pick where we pick.

beat

Beat, Fans can't be expected to root for their team's players to lose, ever. But I think we can expect that Danny, having engineered a rebuilding year, shrewdly plays the odds to make sure the job is done right, to the extent possible.
I'd add that Brad's comments and expressed desires are exactly what I think he should be saying and doing, also admit that each recent loss stung little because I've been thinking about November 2015 since the Nets' trade. Management must be looking at least that far ahead, planning to put a competitive team on the floor by a certain date. Danny started with the central piece, IMO, the brainy, well-spoken coach, is stockpiling assets and steering boldly. I think we're on the way back and for that reason, I've found this a very rewarding season. I like several of the players we have, but the current roster wasn't built to win, much, or to stay together long. It's been a year to get finances in order, assess talent then begin that long climb back to the top - at least that's how I read it. Hawk

Hawk

All of that may be true. But like I said I have always wanted them to win every game period. No one knows what DA has in mind. We end up where we end up then we will get the pick we receive. And on draft day what happens happens.

There is no player on that draft right now that is going to come in here and make a 10-15 win difference without other pieces being added. Other deals will be struck or DA will wait. Personally I'd deal for a proven available center than any center in this draft. (If the price is right)

beat

We will see if the "Ainge Master Plan" comes to fruition in successful fashion. But it must be difficult as a player to endure a season like this, so many losses within sigle-digits.


KJ