Celtics lose tiebreaker with Jazz

By Chris Forsberg | ESPNBoston.com

The Boston Celtics lost a random drawing with the Utah Jazz on Friday afternoon that will diminish their chances at a higher draft position.

In losing the drawing, the Celtics will have 103 ping-pong ball combinations (out of 1,000) at May's draft lottery, giving the team a a 10.3 percent chance at the top overall pick and a 33.4 percent chance at a top-3 selection. The real disadvantage is that Utah now owns a tie-breaker over the Celtics and would select before Boston in the event that neither team leaps into the top 3 spots. The Celtics can pick no lower than eighth overall.

The Celtics and Jazz finished with matching 25-57 records, tied for the fourth-worst mark in the NBA overall. Ties are broken by a random drawing in the lottery.

Brooklyn and Washington finished with matching 44-38 records and ties for non-lottery teams are broken by coin flip. By virtue of Brooklyn winning the flip, the Celtics will choose 17th overall with one of three future first-round picks acquired from the Nets in last summer's blockbuster.

112288

33.4% of a top 3 pick isn't bad.



KJ

We're being exposed to more balls than Cinderella.

Sam

Or the Kardashian's!

BattaBing!

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Draft pick percentages for Celts.
1. 10.3%
2. 11.1%
3. 12.0%
4. 0%
5. 23.7%
6. 34.2%
7. 8.2%
8. 0.3%

It's notable that we're more likely to pick 6th than in the top 3.

KyleCleric wrote:Draft pick percentages for Celts.
1. 10.3%
2. 11.1%
3. 12.0%
4. 0%
5. 23.7%
6. 34.2%
7. 8.2%
8. 0.3%

It's notable that we're more likely to pick 6th than in the top 3.

Here this is as a graphic:






So, can someone explain this to me, how can the team with the 4th worst record in the NBA (Utah) only have a 9.9% chance of getting the 4th pick, which is worse than every other pick than #7 and 8 (which they cannot get any more than they can get #9-14)?

And suppose they get the 5th pick, with their 37.3% chance, why can't we get the 4th?  Does that mean that, if the 4 teams left standing are Milwaukee, Philly, Orlando and Boston that one of the 3 worst teams in the league MUST get the 4th pick since we can't?  That we are then guaranteed, if Utah's luck sucks, a top 3?

Where do they come up with this stuff?


bob


.

Bob,

The odds are greater that one team from 5-14 will jump into the top 3 which  would push Utah out of the 4 slot.

Boston can't get the 4th pick. They can only pick at 1,2,3,5,6,7 or 8.
That is because only picks 1-3 are chosen via the ping pong balls. The rest of the lottery is based on record/seeding.

The Lakers can't get the 4th or 5th pick.

Bob, don't worry.  I hear Hollinger has had a heavy hand in calculating the probabilities by a method he calls "MBP".."More Better Picks."

Sam

We have a 57.3% chance of picking in the top five. Our glass is more than half full.

worcester wrote:We have a 57.3% chance of picking in the top five. Our glass is more than half full.

Yeah, very good chances.

Although, I must admit I feel a bit less confident in said pick if it's not top 3. Not to imply that this draft won't have other really good prospects.



KJ