Summer Quandaries - Turner and Thornton: Bottom Bounce?

http://celticsgreen.blogspot.com/2014/08/sq14-16-thornton-turner-bottom-bounce.html








SQ14 #16 Thornton & Turner: Bottom Bounce?



Evan Turner and Marcus Thornton have a lot in common.  They are both surprising, at least to me, additions to the Celtics.  Both are wings, positions expected to provide the most potent scoring, with a history of shooting in bunches but not always accurately.  Each was considered a mainstay of their team’s offense going into their third year in the league.  On the other end, both have a reputation of a distinct lack of interest in playing defense.  And now, entering what should be the prime of their careers, each finds himself on a sudden downward spiral that threatens to drop them right out of the NBA.

Danny Ainge, in fact the Celtics long before Ainge, has a history of taking on reclamation projects.  Across the league, such efforts seem to have a positive outcome less than half the time--success rates running perhaps 5% great, 10% good, 15% fair.  The rest of the time the impediments (mental or physical) to progress that led to their downturn continue to plague their dwindling career.  The Celtics, however, have had quite a few resounding successes.  I would estimate their batting average runs near 50%.  

In the 80’s homeruns included Robert Parrish; moody and underperforming malcontent with the Warriors, became an All-Pro and the solid and understated anchor of the first Big Three.  Bill Walton overcame a string of injury plagued years to provide the Celtics a super-sub sixth man during their last championship of the twentieth century.  Dennis Johnson came in as a high-scoring selfish problem child  and morphed into the glue guy and defensive ace that deferred to his more famous Big Three teammates.  

The Celtics have had their misses also.  Vin Baker garnered his Gin Baker nickname while not-performing in an alcoholic haze for Boston.  Trying to squeeze one-more-year out of Dominique Wilkins, Gary Payton, and Shaq failed to produce the desired results.  The troubled Delonte West had a short stay in his second stint with the Green; nor did Antoine Walker revive his career on his rerun.

Now during this much-ado-about-relatively-little off-season, we find ourselves with two revival attempts in Turner and Thornton.  In my opinion the deficits are similar in both.  Poor shot selection, poor offensive integration, and defensive indifference.  These problems are all mental.  Each of these players has skills, NBA-level skills; and yet each is facing the prospect of shortly being out of the league.  Which brings me to my big question.

How low do you have to go to rebound?  For the entitled adolescent there may be no bounce, no bottom at which the thought process begins to change.  It may always be “somebody else’s” fault that “I” am being kept from succeeding.  Some players, and people for that matter, never get it.  They never reach that ah-ha moment where is dawns on them that what will be necessary is for them to revamp their world view where, rather than the world revolving around them, they need to exert energy to find a successful orbit around the world.

As to the case at hand, I have no idea whether Evan or Marcus have bottomed out sufficiently to find that solid realization from which they can push off into a rebound.  I do think that both of them have the physical tools and mental acuity to alter their games to contribute within a team concept and be successful.  What I don’t know is whether their mental makeup is such that the changes needed will be possible.  

It does seem to me that Turner has crashed sufficiently that his eyes should be open to the fragility of his own career.  His efficiency, minutes, productivity, and contract have all gone in the trash.  If he isn’t getting the message now, he probably never will.  I don’t think however, that a Dennis-Johnson-like turnaround is out of the question.  Admittedly it is a complete switch to go from defensive disinterest to applying those considerable physical assets to lock-down defense; but isn’t that change in direction exactly what rebound means?  What if he took those one-on-one skills and limited them to applications where the clock is running down and his team needs a bailout shot?  Once again that would be a sea change from his history of using half the shot clock pounding the ball trying to create his shot while his teammates stand around in frustration.  Again, the definition of rebound.  I’m not saying this is going to happen.  I’m just saying that his circumstances may have illuminated his issues sufficiently that his superego will be able to get a word in over the thunderous babble of his ego.

I am less optimistic about the situation for Marcus Thornton.  While he is on the last year of his contract and has been traded twice in six months, he is also still basking in the six million dollar raise he was gifted in the third year by the Kings (who we all know have been doing a bang up job of running [or is that ruining] a franchise).  I fear his slight up tick in Brooklyn will cement his view that the only real problem is that “others” have been keeping him down.  Still, he has legitimate NBA skills and they could be quite effective if used within a team framework.  The needed changes outlined for Turner are almost exactly the same for Marcus; the problem is that I have a harder time seeing him ready for change.  I suspect that the blaring of his ego is still preventing his superego from getting a word in edgewise.

There are some positive influences available; and hopefully will be allowed to work some magic.  Brad Stevens has a reputation of getting the best out of players (see Crawford, Jordan 2013) and I think the message to the players of the need for critical assessment of their career will be consistent from the front office (Danny Ainge).  Half of the reversal of direction is a complete attitude and effort adjustment on defense, and it is hard to imagine more shining examples than Bradley and Smart.  With up front live instructional videos and an “or else sit and wait for your release or trade” dictum from the bench, I can see a put up, or shut up and sit, being pretty effective motivators and teaching tools.  On the other end of the court, Stevens motion offense provides exactly the changes Evan and Marcus need to incorporate to reverse their dead end path.  

Will it happen, who knows?  I do think it will be fascinating to watch, exciting if it succeeds, and sad if it fails.  Strangely I think this is the biggest unknown, greatest possibility for a huge boost, and perhaps the least likely of big changes for this year’s team.

Only 48 more days until training camp.





bob
MY NOTE:  A reasonable premise, here.  I'd tend to agree with him on Turner over Thornton.  Turner thought he was God's Gift when he was at Philly, thinking he could command a large contract, mostly due to his being a #2 draft pick.  Then the trade to Indy.  Ok, so maybe (perhaps he thinks) that was just Sam Hinkie jettisoning any player who might commit the mortal sin of trying to win games but then Indy didn't want to keep him either, despite the fact that Lance is gone which creates an opening and removes his primary irritant.  Is THAT a sufficiently loud "intervention" to snap Evan Turner's eyes open and realize he has to make a serious change in his game and in his attitude?  We all hope so, but we'll have to wait and see.  Thornton appears, from what I've read, to be a one-trick pony.  He shoots, he scores, the crowd goes wild.  If that's all he can do and if that's all Brad wants, then we would have kept Bay Leaves, who could also play at least some point.  My first impression, unfair as they often are, is that Marcus Thornton will be gone by the trade deadline or playing in Europe or China next year.  That's based upon his agent-created furor when the trade was announced about how he was concerned his client wouldn't be getting the minutes to prove himself.  Yeah, I know that was the blood-sucking agent's focus on "how can I get a bigger contract, and therefore bigger fee, if he collects splinters?" but that's still bogus.  That negative first impression would have been erased if Thornton, himself, had come out publicly after his agent stuck his foot in his mouth, and said "I'm happy to be here and look forward to working hard and earning my minutes".  That did not happen.  Either way, these are more assets for Trader Danny to roll, roll, roll into a bigger snowball down the line.  Thornton, in particular, is an $8.7M expiring contract.  I don't see any way, under this CBA, that he would get that much next year.



.

My guess (which is usually less accurate than even Bob Heckler's self-described first impressions) is that much of the Celtics' future for either or both these guys will be determined before the season starts.

I'm referring to my expectation that Brad will meet (perhaps extensively) with them to conduct what this author calls a "critical assessment of their careers."  I expect him to hear them out concerning the past and then to pull no punches in terms of explaining what they'll have to accomplish during their Celtics experience can help get them back on track.

Of the two, it seems to me that Turner has more upside than Thornton.  But it also seems that neither has ever come close to filling his potential. If there's one glimmer in all of this, it's that their problems appear to be largely mental or attitudinal.  Attitudes can be improved (although it's never a given) much faster than talent.

Sam

Excuse me. How was DJ a reclamation project? His only problems were with one coach in Seattle as I recall, and his offensive and defensive skills were superb. He proved to be a great team player when given the chance.

"In Phoenix, Johnson further established himself as a quality player. In his three years as a Sun [1980-83], Johnson averaged 14–20 points a game and provided tough defense. He played in two All-Star Games, was voted into three consecutive All-Defensive First Teams and earned his only All-NBA First Team appearance.[3] In this period, Johnson played shooting guard and became the main scorer on the team, as opposed to being the second or third option as a Sonic.[5"
...Wikipedia

DJ would probably make my "most misunderstood" team.  (Scal would definitely be another member.)  Dennis wasn't a classic floor general.  He wasn't a classic shooter.  And he wasn't even a classic defender as he seemed to have a style all his own.  But he got the job done, even in the clutch.  And he combined with the forecourt to make the Celtics a physically tough team in those days.

DJ brought back memories of the Russell Years when some complete jerk in the crowd would get on one of the Celtics (often Cousy) with comments like, "You're a tank out there."  "Your a bum."  "You can't shoot for crap."

And I'd sneak up in back of the jerk and yell, "And you're boring too.  All you can do is win, win, win."

(I often wonder how I made it through those games alive.)

Sam