Summer Quandaries: Rondo In His Thirties

http://celticsgreen.blogspot.com/2014/08/sq14-17-rondo-in-his-thirties.html







I’ve see quite a bit written bemoaning the idea of signing Rondo to a long term contract.  If you are concerned about him recovering fully from his ACL tear, that is legitimate but I think the jury will be in on that by next summer.  If you are worried about tying up a third of the salary cap, that is also legitimate but there are two factors that ameliorate that issue.  Another complaint is that his skills will dwindle with age, after all the loss of that quick step so many smaller players rely upon is often the first sign of impending decline.  Also some express the fear that Rondo will chose not to extend with the Celtics and they will lose him for nothing in return.  Finally there have been those that do not think that Rondo is suited for, or will relish, playing in a motion offense that emphasizes team and ball movement.  I believe that there are persuasive answers to each of these concerns.

An ACL tear is a major injury and twenty years ago they were almost certainly the death knell of an athletic career.  These days not so much.  Rondo may not be at 100% this year but it is quite likely that he will be close to his old self by seasons end.  I think Danny Ainge will have a good read on just what player he is trying to wrap up next summer.

As to the factors that make the large portion of the salary cap less of a frightening spectacle, first, the salary cap is expected to rise sharply with the next TV contract so a largish contract next summer may seem considerably more reasonable two years down the road.  Second, I think it is quite likely that Rondo will be willing to sign for less than the maximum for a couple of reasons.  Not only does he seem to have a genuine love of Boston and the Celtics, but he is smart enough to recognize that taking too big a bite will handicap Ainge’s ability to put championship caliber parts around him.  He saw how Kevin Garnett’s time in Minnesota played out.

His comfort with Boston is also part of the reason that the prospect of losing him for nothing is less daunting.  He bonded quickly with Brad Stevens, some would say eagerly.  Long before he could actively contribute on the court, he embraced a coach and mentor role with the young guys.  I think he has shown an aptitude, and a relish, for leading the team and sees this current emerging iteration as “his” Celtics.  I think he wants to lead them back into contention and over the top.

As far as a drop off in his game over the next five years, Rondo’s most impressive talents are his ability to see the floor, anticipate where his guys and their opponents will be going next, and to pass the ball where his teammate will be, not where he was, and exactly on target.  None of this will decay with time, quite the contrary.  Will he lose a step, probably, but his game is more predicated on leveraging a misstep or miscue of an opponent than it is imposing his physical will over them.  There is no reason to expect his shooting to decline, and a guarded optimism that it will improve.  There is no finer student of the game and I would expect to see nothing less that a continued all-out effort to address his weaknesses.

Finally there are the questions of his being suited for, and ability to embrace, the motion offense of Brad Stevens.  I have already mentioned his quick rapport with Coach Stevens and I see like minds in their analytical approaches to the game.  Certainly Rondo will have to grow beyond his serving up catch-and-shoots for the Big Three, but I don‘t see that as a problem.  I believe his failure to develop a smooth give and take with the squad last year had more to do with the uncertainty prevailing in an ever-changing cast of performers that never had time to meld, rather than any lack of desire or ability to do so.  This second training camp together, and the first in which Rondo can fully participate, should build an understanding and a chemistry that should serve all well.  

Rondo is such an astute student of the game that I think most of these fears will fade away and we will wonder why we ever doubted the outcome.  This is most decidedly not another Rondo trade call!

Only 47 more days until the start of training camp.




bob
MY NOTE:  Finally, a blogger who doesn't start from the perspective of "We need to trade Rondo".  How refreshing and new.


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My favorite Rondo moment was the 10 playoffs vs Cavs, we were big underdogs and Rondo completely destroyed Mo Williams both ends, just totally shut him down. At that time he was the most athletically gifted point in the league, he was the fastest and quickest, now other youngins have closed the gap and he doesn't play with that same defensive intensity as much recently. Now we'll see if hes a flash in the pan 3 time all star or can he keep his game evolving into his 30's and beyond as the true greats have done.

With me, ability to play the game comes first—definitely ahead of athleticism.  You may ride a bike more deliberately after a bad injury, but you never forget balance and steering.

My major question about Rondo—not necessarily a concern but more a perplexing quandary—is his ability to run a half court offense.  As the team has gotten away from the free-lancing of Pierce, the nearly unstoppable turnaround of KG, and the lightning quick release of Ray, it is having to depend more on collaboration in the halfcourt.

In the first place, good collaboration can take time and is aided when the opponent is unprepared.  Walking the ball up doesn't satisfy those requirements.  Neither does standing and taking many seconds off the shot clock before initiating a play.  I happen to believe that Rondo does both of those things because he's more comfortable doing them.  

However, even if both situations are somehow dictated by Brad, the combo of Brad and Rondo somehow ain't working to a high degree of effectiveness.

I want Rondo to stay this season because I want to see what a full season of Rajon and Brad together can produce—particularly with younger legs boding well for the transition game.  I'll be happy to see what I hope will be a much more successful fast break; but what I'll be focusing on more intently will be time utilization in the half court.  That is largely the responsibility of the floor general.  And it should tell us whether Rondo tends to depend more of athleticism and less on good ball management than is required for a developing team.

Sam