Summer Quandaries: Stats They Should Keep

http://celticsgreen.blogspot.com/2014/08/sq14-23-stats-they-should-keep.html






As a kid I was lucky when the local small-town newspaper even carried the score of NBA games.  Then occasionally I got a score and the top one or two scorers.  And no, they weren't on stone tablets.  Since those dark ages, I have enjoyed the progression of box scores with points, rebounds and assists to expanded versions also including steals, blocks, shots taken and missed, free throws, and three-pointer’s.  Still, as I watch a game, or reflect on one, it occurs to me that stats aren’t (or at least haven’t been) kept on the multitude of little things that matter a great deal to the outcome of the game.  Here are a few of the ones I have identified, that could be quantified.  Feel free to add your own in the comments.

Hockey assists--widely used, the pass before the assist pass
Open shot assists--why should assists only be acknowledged if the shot is made
Help covers--a defensive assist may prevent a basket similar to a block
Help cover covers--when a help defender shifts to take the most immediate threat, he leaves his man open and that man often becomes the second most immediate threat.  The next-man-up defender needs to anticipate the original help cover and hedge to reduce the threat left open by the first rotation.
Shot bothers--while not as definitive as a block, it certainly reduces the percentage of the shooter, usually by 10% or more
Deflected passes--these often lead to steals and always disrupt the offense
Lead passes--a pass that leads the player to the basket or into an open shot is a critical part of an efficient offense
Precision passes--(see Rondo, Rajon) a pass not requiring the receiver to adjust (reach out, down, up, or back) permits a natural flow into a shot or drive
Stay-alive tips--denying the opponent possession turns a rebound into a 50/50 ball
Tips into passes--a tip to a teammate can spark a fast break or lead to an open shot
Re-jumps--whether going back up for the 50/50 ball after a tip or intimidating an opponent under the basket, getting airborne again quickly is a valuable contribution
Missed open teammates--it does little good to make a back-door cut or go to the open spot if the ball handler doesn’t see you in time to make the pass
Poor shot selection--this one gets subjective pretty quickly but that 25-footer with 18 seconds on the clock and the wild shot surrounded by three defenders almost always qualify
Slow-up last opportunities--how many time do you see some player, often young, rush down court and jack up a shot with 10 seconds left in the quarter?  Slowing to allow the offense, and defense unfortunately, to set up so the last shot can be taken with 2-4 seconds, essentially allows you a chance to score while denying the opponents an opportunity, or at least a good opportunity.
Scrum balls--just diving into the fray to try for the ball deserves some recognition.  It not only secures a possession part of the time, it also often energizes a team.
Saves--converts a turnover into a 50/50 ball



Back in the 80's, frustrated by a feeling that Bird and McHale did not get their due when the "Led by" lines usually only included points scored, I developed my own cumulative measure with the following formula:

Points+Rebounds+Assists+Steals+Blocks
 Minus(MissedShots+MissedFreeThrows+Fouls+Turnovers+BlocksAgainst)

or pretty much every positive in a modern box score less every negative.  Believe you me, Larry Bird looked awfully good compared to those other top scorers in the league.  Then again Magic and Michael also rose to the top, perhaps proving that the cream of the crop always rises.  I rather think those four would have also excelled if I had been able to figure in my new set of stats that should be kept.

Only 42 more days until training camp.




bob
MY NOTE:  "Scrum balls" could be called "Tommy Points".  I wouldn't be surprised if sports metrics companies like Synergy Sports already accumulate much of this info, but your average joe/jane isn't going to pay to obtain them.  I'd be surprised if Danny isn't and I'd be shocked if Brad Stevens' 24-year old stat wunderkind, Drew Cannon, doesn't massage those numbers daily.   Any ideas for stats?




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Poor shot selection--this one gets subjective pretty quickly but that 25-footer with 18 seconds on the clock and the wild shot surrounded by three defenders almost always qualify


Jordan Crawford come to mind?

But dang some of the time the suckers went in !
So where does that fall into the line of his stats?

beat

One has to appreciate this guy's thought process, because—unlike so many others—he doesn't focus only on the obvious elements of the game.  

I'm not bullish on a few of his examples—especially the ones that involve subjectivity, such as precision passes and missed open opportunities.  And I'm totally unconvinced that slowing down the action with 10 seconds left and your team in possession is a good thing; my philosophy is that, when a good shot presents itself, you take it and have some faith in your defense to make a stop on the other end.

I don't recall a time—even in the days before Russell—when I couldn't get a box xcore, although I have boxes upon boxes that contain my own scorecards of radio games with more information than the typical box score of the time.  (Think about even less than the very basic info—field goals, free throws taken and and points—on many of the old box scores posted by Bob Heckler's posts about past games.)

Anyway, this writer has proven his creativity in providing some of the more entertaining time-fillers of the summer.  And Bob Heckler also deserves credit for uncovering and posting his work.

Sam