Summer Quandaries: Olynyk Leap This Year Or Next?

http://celticsgreen.blogspot.com/2014/08/sq14-33-olynyk-leap-this-year-or-next.html








Players that thrive in the NBA typically make a significant leap in either their second or third years.  Kelly Olynyk has a lot of work to do.  His body is far from a completed project.  He needs more strength, up, down, and all around.  He needs more, more powerful, more skilled, and more consistent moves around the basket.  He needs to maneuver around the court with more assurance, controlled force, and certainty.  He needs to “see” the court so his anticipation can partially compensate for his below-average lateral mobility.  

And yet, all these needs are attainable; and his numerable pluses, many of which are not really teachable, already constitute a formidable array.  Most of his needs lend themselves to off-season attention.  Those that don’t, like anticipation (at NBA light-speed), will benefit from training camp at full speed (and without the plantar fasciitis that plagued him last summer and fall).  Those facts, and his rather remarkable progress in the last few weeks at the end of his rookie season, bode well for his continued progress.

Will it be The Big Jump?  I don’t know, but I do think that it will be a significant one.  Enough so that I think he will be pushing Sullinger hard if Jared doesn’t come into camp in top shape.  

Only 32 more days before training camp.




bob
MY NOTE:  At 7'0" Kelly has a physical advantage that will offset his strength deficiencies as long as he plays 4.  As we saw in summer league, he is already looking bigger than last year and we saw, in the 2nd half of last year, the beginning of what was making Tommy salivate over this kid (then again Tommy has a positively Pavlovian response to the color green, and we love him for it).  Kelly has a lot of the "unteachables" like court vision and ball handling.  He is also a very good shooting big man, but that can be taught.  One can certainly work on improving one's physique and conditioning.  Overall, I think Kelly's a keeper.  The one area, the only area, where I have longterm concerns is in his mentality.  Does he have that "take no prisoners" competitive spirit that Sully has and that, it appears, Marcus Smart has?  Unfortunately, that is also an "unteachable".  Either you have ganas or you don't.



.

are you guys talking about that long haired guy from Canada with the tree trunk legs?

I can see him at 250-260# before long.

and in the NBA today, thats a center folks.

Kelly's improvement last season was sufficient to tell me he'll be very hungry for yet additional improvement. I also believe that an opportunity to put in minutes beside a real center will help him along.

Sam

kdp,

I'm sorry, but I do not see Kelly as a legit center ever.

He will never be the absolute bull that Sully is, and Sully isn't even a center.

As long as Kelly plays the 4, he can exploit his strengths in stretching the court with good passing, solid ballhandling for a guy his size, shooting, and overall BBIQ.

If he plays center, he will be victimized by the likes of Noah, Howard, etc.


KJ

KJ,

Noah, Howard and who else?

and Noah isn't exactly an offensive great, IMO.

that's my point, in todays NBA there simply are NOT that many real (meaning old style) NBA centers,

yes Howard and the very FEW big/strong centers who will actually PLAY inside will beat Kelly up.

I don't see Zeller as having any size or strength advantage over Kelly in a year or two either.


we'll see how it plays out for sure, but IF we spend our time wishing for that low post beast at center (who can also be a shot blocker) we might be waiting a VERY long time.

every year there seems to be less of those guys around.

KO is no center. He cannot defend the paint or rebound outside of his own space. He lacks the lateral quickness that is required to defend the pick and role and his lack of of both length and hops will limits his overall defensive abilities.

He is however a good offensive player away from the basket.

Dboss

the very same liability's Kelly has as a center he has  as a PF as well.

the very same assets he has as a PF , he has as a center.

but I think maybe I should repeat what I have said in other threads about this.

the NBA is moving away from the traditional center position of the past.

so lets just say we are using TWO Power forwards.

there.

now there are no issues with playing Kelly and Sully together. (except neither is a shot blocker of course).

Maybe Zeller will turn out to be better basketball player than Kelly, but I don't think so.

put the best players on the court regardless of past position bias'.

did some quick comparisons on Zeller and Olynyk here:

per 36MIn stats T. Zeller K. Olynyk
2ptFG--------------47.5---------50
3pt FG---------------0 ----------35.1
FT --------------74.5----------81.1
ORB ---------------3.1----------3.6
DRB----------------5.3----------5.8
Ast ---------------1.5----------2.8
STl ---------------0.6----------0.9
BLK-----------------1.3----------0.7
TOV----------------1.8 ----------2.7
PF------------------4.5-----------5.8
Pts-----------------11.8--------15.6

Combine stuff
Measurments----Zeller--------Olynyk
Hgt -no shoes---6-11.25-----6-10.75
Wgt -------------247----------234
Wingspan -------7-0----------6-9.75
reach-------------8-8.5--------9-0
Body Fat----------6.4----------6.7
No step vert------30----------24.5
Max Vert----------34----------29.5

Draft net comparison PJ Brown S. Hawes

Hi,
I don't think there will be a leap or a jump for KO - gradual progress most probably. Next 2-3 years, he's going to reach "almost all-star" level.
As for KO being 4 or 5, my vote goes to 4: IMO he doesn't have mentality of a bruiser who doesn't allow opposition onto the paint. This, as Bobh put it, is unteachable.

AK

kdp59 wrote:the very same liability's Kelly has as a center he has  as a PF as well.

the very same assets he has as a PF , he has as a center.

but I think maybe I should repeat what I have said in other threads about this.

the NBA is moving away from the traditional center position of the past.

This does appear to be the case.  The game is evolving.  There is the side of the debate that says Kelly can supply offense away from the basket. That is true, but appears fairly limited.  I do expect Zeller to get the minutes at center due to stronger rebounding, but the lines between PF and C are becoming increasingly blurred.

The NFL used to use the single wing, now they don't.  In baseball, on an opposite field righty or dead pull lefty, you would never align your SS further over than the 2B bag.  Now they often are set well to the 1st base side of the 2B bag in shallow right.  In the NBA, you couldn't win a championship with a high percentage of points coming from the outside, now you get 3 from out there and can run a substantial offense with long gunners.  

The traditional center isn't quite gone, but he is fading fast.  Evolution ain't just for apes.

The 86 Celtics would still crush todays teams with superior inside play both ends and clever ball movement!!!! it would be too easy for them.

Evolution occurs because you have to use what you have, alot of marginal players only survive in this league off the 3 because the can't do anything else.

NYCelt wrote:

kdp59 wrote:the very same liability's Kelly has as a center he has  as a PF as well.

the very same assets he has as a PF , he has as a center.

but I think maybe I should repeat what I have said in other threads about this.

the NBA is moving away from the traditional center position of the past.

This does appear to be the case.  The game is evolving.  There is the side of the debate that says Kelly can supply offense away from the basket.  That is true, but appears fairly limited.  I do expect Zeller to get the minutes at center due to stronger rebounding, but the lines between PF and C are becoming increasingly blurred.

The NFL used to use the single wing, now they don't.  In baseball, on an opposite field righty or dead pull lefty, you would never align your SS further over than the 2B bag.  Now they often are set well to the 1st base side of the 2B bag in shallow right.  In the NBA, you couldn't win a championship with a high percentage of points coming from the outside, now you get 3 from out there and can run a substantial offense with long gunners.  

The traditional center isn't quite gone, but he is fading fast.  Evolution ain't just for apes.

Baseball has so many games and the sample size is so large that you really can position the players to flood the areas where the ball is most likely to be hit based on the way the scouting report says to pitch to virtually any batter.  The hitters like Rod Carew and Tony Gwynn that could hit almost any pitch to any field are just not around anymore. As a side I read an article many years ago on just how picky Tony Gwynn was in picking out his lumber. His bat had to have a certain range of growth rings........to few the wood grew to fast at the bat would be "soft" to many and the tree grew to slow and the bat would be brittle.

Oh the times they are a changing................Little Dylan for the old folks

beat

I would agree with you both, that the LACK of what I call traditional Center play is more fomr the expanding of the three point shooting AND younger players NOT working on their inside games.

here are the top offensive Center (and PF's who might be considered also) form last year:

D.Cousins- 22.7pt-49.9%FG- 72.6% FT
A. jefferson- 21.8Pt- 51.2%- 69.0% FT
A. Davis- 20.8 pt- 52.2% FG- 79.1% FT
B. Lopez- 20.7 pt- 56.6%- 81.7%
A. Horford- 18.6 pt- 57.2%- 68.2%
D. Howard- 18.3pt- 59.4%- 54.7%

K. Love- 26.1pt- 50.2%- 82.1%
B. Griffin- 24.1- 53.7%- 71.5%
L. Aldridge- 23.2- 46.1%- 82.2%
D. Nowitzki-21.7- 53.2%- 89.9%
D. Lee- ----18.9- 52.3%- 78.0%


those 11 players are the only big men who averaged 18pt or more a game last year.
but only THREE of them can be considered " a typical NBA center" (Howard, Cousins, Lopez).

the rest are either shorter or weigh less than Kelly or Zeller.

the Center position in the NBA has already changed, there simply are not that many around.

and the chances of the celtics getting one of the very few seems slim to me.

BTW, I in no way want anyone to think that I think Zeller can;t be a good player for us.

I just think Kelly ( and Sully) have a better upside.

kdp59 wrote:

KJ,

Noah, Howard and who else?

and Noah isn't exactly an offensive great, IMO.

that's my point, in todays NBA there simply are NOT that many real (meaning old style) NBA centers,

yes Howard and the very FEW big/strong centers who will actually PLAY inside will beat Kelly up.

I don't see Zeller as having any size or strength advantage over Kelly in a year or two either.


we'll see how it plays out for sure, but IF we spend our time wishing for that low post beast at center (who can also be a shot blocker) we might be waiting a VERY long time.

every year there seems to be less of those guys around.

1. Who else? Marcin Gortat, Pekovic, DeAndre Jordan, Asik, Brook Lopez, Robin Lopez, Tyson Chandler, Boris Diaw, Marc Gasol. Those are probably the more prominent ones and I know I left a few out.

2. Noah just won DPOY and is a very good passer, has a high BBIQ, a very good FT shooter, is solid on offense, and is probably the best all-around center in the league.

3. In case you haven't noticed, centers are actually making quite a comeback. Think of the teams that have won championships over the past ten years. The only team to win without one were the latest Heat teams that had Lebron, Wade, and Bosh. But all of the others had a very good center. Lakers had Bynum, Older Heat team had O'Neal, Celtics had Perkins, Spurs have had Diaw, Duncan. Dallas had Chandler I believe.

Yeah, the game has transitioned quite a bit, but having a legit center is still a huge plus.

4. Zeller probably has almost 20 pounds on Kelly and is an actual, not psuedo, center. He will provide much more balance to the Celtics defense in the post than if Kelly is playing center.

Last year, the Celtics had terrible interior defense. Kelly is not even remotely a good post defender. That, as far as I'm concerned, is unacceptable for the center position, a position in which that player must anchor the defense.





KJ

I wouldn't be surprised if Kelly plays a fair amount of backup center, especially in the 1st half of the year while Fav is still less than 100%.  He has a year of experience under his belt at center, he has experienced first hand what the wars underneath in the NBA are like and now knows what to expect.  He is a finesse player, though, and so I just can't help but wonder if he's got what it takes to play center full-time.  Having said that, anybody who watched summer league saw Kelly sprouting some new muscles that he didn't have last year.  If he was 238# last year he had to be up closer to 245# in July, and how long did that take?  April, May and June.  If he is 245# that puts him within spitting distance of what Zeller played last year (although Zeller is saying he plans to bulk up for this year, so the arms race (and shoulders and thighs) will continue).  Still, 245# is getting close to NBA center bulk.


kdp,

Without researching the numbers myself, how can Kelly be shorter half-inch shorter in bare feet than Zeller, have a 2 1/4" shorter wingspan than Zeller but have 3 1/2" longer reach?

Cowens pointed out that the 86 Celtics could crush today's teams.  Larry Bird is listed, by basketball-reference.com, as being 6'9", 220# and he played, mostly, SF with some PF.  Jeff Green is a 6'9", 235# SF who plays some PF.  So, as big as Larry Bird was for his position back then, he's not that big by today's standards.  The difference, of course, was his ganas.  He was, as I used to be called, a "net shit exporter".  In other words, he dished it out more than he took.  That's not about the size of the dog in the fight, though, that's about the fight in the dog.  If Jeff Green played his size, he'd be the monster Danny traded for.  KG told Green he needed to find his "inner asshole".  He still does.

We saw what happened last year when we didn't have a legit center.  To say that just because Miami won 2 titles without one kinda overlooks a certain 6'9" player's impact.  We need a center.  If Zeller had Noah's skills, then he can play outside too, but he doesn't.   What we could have is an inverted post, where our 5s (Zeller, Kelly, Fav) play high post and out while our 4s (Sully, Bass and Kelly when he's in with Zeller or Fav) set up low.  Sully and Bass, down low, are a mismatch for many NBA 4s.  Our 5s, down low, are not.  One should play to our actual strengths and away from our weaknesses, and not to some hypothetical scheme.

As much as I love Argentinean players for their macho heart I'm starting to become a bit wary of Canadians for the same reason.  Can anybody name a Canadian player who is an animal?  It just seems to me they're all finesse players.  I mean, for Pete's Sake, Kelly is a 7'0er who lays the ball in instead of dunking it.

Whether it's this year or next, I think Kelly's going to find his niche and I think it's a good one.  He has put on some muscle (which means he now has some) and can put on some more.  If he gets to 250# and still maintains his speed and mobility, then we'll see.

Do Canadians even have "inner assholes"?


bob


.

yep Bob,

that high post/low post big man offense is exactly what I see as possible

only I see Kelly and Bass as the high post PF/C (whatever you want to call it).

and Sully and Zeller as the low post offense.

we all know we don't have an elite shot blocker, but they still have to out score us, don't they?

and I agree about Kelly's size, there won't be a lot of difference weight wise when all is said and done , IMO.

and I have NO IDEA how come Kelly has a longer standing reach, with shorter arms and a being half an inch shorter!!!

long neck?

or

the hair is my guess.

My opinion is that Kelly's more of a finesse player not simply because of his physique (he's taller and weighs more than Russell did, although ganas would be a different matter). Kelly's more of a finesse player because he has a floor general's mind. He lays the ball in because that's what floor generals usually do, despite the fact that he's obviously big enough to dunk it. His habit of laying the ball in will pay off in when the NBA takes my suggestion and awards only one point for a dunk.

Sam

KJ

I already put a list of centers and Power forwards who averaged 18 or more a game.

1. Who else? Marcin Gortat, Pekovic, DeAndre Jordan, Asik, Brook Lopez, Robin Lopez, Tyson Chandler, Boris Diaw, Marc Gasol. Those are probably the more prominent ones and I know I left a few out.

out of your list only Lopez hurts us as a scorer.

since most seem to think that the main reason Kelly can't possible be our "center" is his lack of defense.

Asik, Jordan, Robin L., Chandler, Diaw (he's a 6-8 PF), yes I'll take the chance that any of them beat us any day.

Just because a guy is perceived to be STRONG doesn't mean he can be an offensive threat.

and most of the guys on that list will have a hell of a time trying to guard Kelly out at the top of key.....opening up the inside for your guards cutting.

everyone is talking about US matching up...let THEM have to match up with our best players.

kdp59 wrote:KJ

I already put a list of centers and Power forwards who averaged 18 or more a game.

1. Who else? Marcin Gortat, Pekovic, DeAndre Jordan, Asik, Brook Lopez, Robin Lopez, Tyson Chandler, Boris Diaw, Marc Gasol. Those are probably the more prominent ones and I know I left a few out.

out of your list only Lopez hurts us as a scorer.

since most seem to think that the main reason Kelly can't possible be our "center" is his lack of defense.

Asik, Jordan, Robin L., Chandler, Diaw (he's a 6-8 PF), yes I'll take the chance that any of them beat us any day.

Just because a guy is perceived to be STRONG doesn't mean he can be an offensive threat.

and most of the guys on that list will have a hell of a time trying to guard Kelly out at the top of key.....opening up the inside for your guards cutting.

everyone is talking about US matching up...let THEM have to match up with  our best players.

I'm not talking strictly the offense of opposing centers, I'm referring to it in the context of a team and how having a true center can impact team defense.

Not only does a center need to match up with another one, a center also has to be able to either block or alter shots by slashers in the lane. The thing about Kelly is that he doesn't have much of a killer instinct on defense.

Will Kelly improve his defense over time? Probably. But he'll never be an elite defender in the post like Perk was.

The only advantage Kelly will have against another center (if he's playing center) is on offense because of his mobility and outside shooting ability. But the C's are in desperate need of post defense and that is not one of Kelly's strong points. I say Kelly should play the stretch 4 to help open the lanes for guys like Bradley, Green, etc and to capitalize on his shooting ability.




KJ

The center position has changed but the need for a center who can play in the post is still needed.

There are obviously still  a lot of very good centers and the next great center is probably already  playing basketball.

I think KO could be a 15/6/2 guy for the Celts (Two is not for blocks)

KO could get a few minutes at center but I still think Sully will get the majority of the backup center minutes.  But the addition of Zeller is a big boast to that position despite our ongoing needs to add depth.

The real BIG BIG question I think is...who will be the backup center?

The candidates include

Vitor
Sully
Kelly
The Heat guy..what's his name?

Not exactly quality center depth

We need Sully in the post because he is our #1 rebounder.  So he gets the minutes because he is better down low than KO.

I like both KO and Sully but I do not believe that either one of them have a high ceiling.  They will both improve but let's face the facts.  They will never be Allstar quality forwards or centers.

There was a notion that we were deep at the 4.  That was true in terms of numbers but when you consider that Kris Humphries was our best big man last year that notions is not supported by talent.

The idea of drafting an upgrade at the 4 was mentioned before for this very reason, as was taking a legit center in the draft instead of KO.

The Celts refuse to let me do the drafting..shucks.

The good thing is that DA has been extremely judicious with their assets and will be able to not only upgrade the 4 but also acquire a good center.

This team should be really fun to watch.  A lot of new talent added, healthy bodies and more development from the young guys makes for a very interesting season.

dboss

As Tommy Heinsohn suggested in his recent interview, the best offensive emphasis for a young team is the fast break. It's easier to teach than extensive and complex halfcourt intricacies, and it capitalizes on the presumed athleticism of youth.

I know I'm preaching to the choir in terms of the fast break, but it just felt good to say it again.

Sam

k_j_88 wrote:

kdp59 wrote:KJ

I already put a list of centers and Power forwards who averaged 18 or more a game.

1. Who else? Marcin Gortat, Pekovic, DeAndre Jordan, Asik, Brook Lopez, Robin Lopez, Tyson Chandler, Boris Diaw, Marc Gasol. Those are probably the more prominent ones and I know I left a few out.

out of your list only Lopez hurts us as a scorer.

since most seem to think that the main reason Kelly can't possible be our "center" is his lack of defense.

Asik, Jordan, Robin L., Chandler, Diaw (he's a 6-8 PF), yes I'll take the chance that any of them beat us any day.

Just because a guy is perceived to be STRONG doesn't mean he can be an offensive threat.

and most of the guys on that list will have a hell of a time trying to guard Kelly out at the top of key.....opening up the inside for your guards cutting.

everyone is talking about US matching up...let THEM have to match up with  our best players.

I'm not talking strictly the offense of opposing centers, I'm referring to it in the context of a team and how having a true center can impact team defense.

Not only does a center need to match up with another one, a center also has to be able to either block or alter shots by slashers in the lane. The thing about Kelly is that he doesn't have much of a killer instinct on defense.

Will Kelly improve his defense over time? Probably. But he'll never be an elite defender in the post like Perk was.

The only advantage Kelly will have against another center (if he's playing center) is on offense because of his mobility and outside shooting ability. But the C's are in desperate need of post defense and that is not one of Kelly's strong points. I say Kelly should play the stretch 4 to help open the lanes for guys like Bradley, Green, etc and to capitalize on his shooting ability.




KJ

I agree with most of what you say here.

but you have to play the hand your dealt.

right now our best "big men" are Sully, Bass, Zeller and Kelly...in some order or the other.

gotta play the best of who you have.

Sully, Bass and Kelly may all be better as PF's.

Zeller seems to be a solid option as a back up center.

you gotta play with who you have.

Last year, they did play the hand they were dealt (without a legitimate center). A lot of winnable games were lost. I suspect that this year, there will still be plenty of those games to fall into that category. But I think that the addition of Zeller will help Kelly.

If Kelly is banging in the post with guys that are 260-270, he's going to get worn down much more quickly, simply because he lacks the mass and physicality to dish out punishment. We saw this with Sullinger and I feel his game suffered a bit with him playing out of position.

The Celtics need their players to be playing their natural positions in order to reap the best possible results.



KJ

KJ,

Truer words were never spoken.

Sam

Just for background:

Kelly Olynyk, Bos - 238# (last season, he's heavier now)
Tyson Chandler, NYK - 240#
Joachim Noah, Chi - 232#
Andre Drummond, Det - 280#
Al Horford, Atl - 245#
Al Jefferson, Cha - 265#
Marcin Gortat, Was - 240#
Nene Hilario, Was - 260#
Jonas Valanciunas, Tor - 230#
Anderson Varajao, Cle - 230#
Nikola Vucevic, Orl - 240#
Javale McGee, Den - 237#
Enes Kanter, Utah - 260#
Nikola Pekovic, Min - 280#
Larry Sanders, Mil - 235#
Dwight Howard, Hou - 265#
Omer Asik, NOP - 255#

Of the above 16 starting NBA centers, 9 of them are 2# heavier or less than Kelly was last year.  The issue, I think, isn't that he isn't heavy enough.  It might be his alligator arms costs him significantly on his shot blocking and intimidation abilities.  It might be he doesn't have quick enough hops, offsetting his lack of length (although Draftexpress says he has a 9'0" standing reach, which is pretty good).

I think last season was a real eye-opener for him.  He's not the biggest player on the floor anymore.  He's not able to just hold his own in the paint anymore, in part, because the game is more physical as well as the opposing players are bigger and stronger.  That's why he worked out and added some muscle onto his previously un-muscular body.  

Personally, I think it's too soon to write the book on Kelly.  When Noah came into the league he was 6'10 1/2" w/o shoes, 223# and a 8'10 1/2" standing reach.  Kelly was 6'10 3/4", 238# and a 9'0" standing reach.

Remember how many of us were ready to write off Bradley after his rookie season?  What's the rush?



bob



.

BobH,

Good points.

I already alluded to this before, but I think it's Kelly's instinct as a defender that will become his main obstacle. He doesn't have that "I'm going to go in there and destroy the other guy any means possible" mentality.



KJ