"Celtics will win 50+ games"

As predicted by legendary sportswriter Yogesh Raghunathan:

www.celticsblog.com/2014/8/29/6085185/why-the-celtics-will-win-50-games-in-the-2014-15-nba-season

The article itself wasn't bad. I still think that the relative inexperience of the players as a cohesive unit and Stevens' himself will put a damper on the win total.



KJ

Legendary sportswriter indeed, all 14 posts by him.

Nevertheless he makes many valid points, but many of his points address the offense which was, admittedly, our weakness last year.  The catch, I think, is not to focus on what he says but rather on what he doesn't say.  He doesn't mention defense as it applies to any of our front court players.  In fact, he shades that by saying that Kelly and Zeller's talents in transition should offset their lack of intimidation on the defensive end.

I'm glad to see he gives Phil Pressey some props.

What I don't see in this piece is where the '50-wins' come from. Will we do better? Yep, for all the reasons he said, but if you're hang your hat on a number shouldn't you back it up with some description of how that number from looking at the schedule?



bob



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The only way a 50-win season would be possible is if the players became so accustomed to uptempo basketball that they sleep in running shoes.



KJ

Its been well documented how we lost so many close games, we had a crap defense and offense, both should be better with the offense the much better and the defense can only be better with Zeller allowing everyone to play their natural positions. The backcourt defense should be tenacious and create havoc, with a healthy Rondo and Smart being as advertised, that will be a defensive upgrade. Sully, AB, a rejuvenated Rondo, Smart, KO and even Zeller getting minutes and Green and Turner could all have breakout years, to make up for last year when all these players weren't ripe yet or just had bad years. We really do have a good mix of young talent on the rise and depth, I've got to think Stevens will also be better this coming season. I see Sully developing into a beast 18-12, AB made huge strides last year, getting the tenacious Smart will just make Rondo and Bradley better, they are gonna crush alot of backcourts. Green, Turner and Wallace can only help each other, right now were better at the 2-3 than the Pacers or Heat, last years Eastern finalists and Cavs have same weakness as us , no rim protector. I see Rondo as an all star and Sully and AB as borderline all stars.

The defense won't be great, but will be huge upgrade over last year, with the backcourt potentially the best in the league. I want to see AB and Smart going at Kyrie, Westbrook, Curry, etc, theres so many great guards and we are built to battle them. Sooner or later we'll get another BIG to tagteam with Zeller, I don't see it being KO, but he could improve to the point that on offense he gives us a big spark vs backup 5's.

Somehow, I think the Celtics will match up very well with the Cavaliers, just like with the Heat.



KJ

Yeah, the offense was their biggest weak spot last season—except for the defense.

It's always nice to see some optimism, and he does a nice job of listing the assets with which we're all familiar. Although I'd stop short (way, way short) of making win predictions, there is one great unknown that could have a huge positive or negative effect on the team's performance. None of the prognosticators has any idea of the extent to which the Celtics could potentially find ways to blend all their individual skills to form an unexpectedly dynamic identity based on athleticism and youth. It will be fascinating to watch them grow individually and collectively.

Sam

The nice thing about fan-posted articles in open blogs; everyone gets to see their byline and feel like a sportswriter!

no green glasses there,

that guy is wearing a green welding mask!

35 wins is a successful second year of this rebuild.

expecting more is asking for disappointment.

Well, I like his thinking!  Optimism goes a long way.  He actually had me reconsidering ordering League Pass my first year into a new marriage!

Robin knows what I want and I know what she wants (a house big enough for 8 people).  So I may have to sit out League Pass for this season and the next because I want that house too!)  

Sam's right.  For someone I haven't met yet but will one day, I have read enough of his posts that I knew what he was going to say!  Synergy.  That was his definition above without stating the word.  And now we have a current benchmark from the recent finals as to what a synergistic team clicking on all cylinders should look like via SAS.  

Once again, though, except for us, no one's eyes are on the Celtics, so if they have a crappy season again, no one cares.  Hey we pick up another high first round pick.  But if they do have a better than expected season, we all get to watch ESPN and TNT scramble and trip over themselves trying to squeeze in the now popular/in high demand Celtics into the schedule where they had CLE, LAC and MIA playing ad nausea and infinitum.

db

I heard that this guy is spearheading a movement to get the NBA to set aside the Hall of Fame rules temporarily and induct Kelly Olynyk by acclimation.

But, if one reads between the lines, out the back door, and around the corner, he's saying that—amidst all the lukewarm predictions—there is a chance the Celtics could surprise.  Not exactly a mind-boggling revelation, but a welcome relief from what Batman and Robin would call "Holy Puny Prognostications."  And there's absolutely nothing wrong with being an excited, hopeful Celtics fanatic who tends toward optimism

I remember a guy who used to bet $20 to nothing that the Celtics would win every game 7 in a Championship Final series.  And he never lost his $20 bill.

Sam

that must have been you Sam

Cow,

Yup, and proud of it. Started the practice in the early 60s. And, since 1969, I've never found any sports aggregation that made me so supremely confident—certainly not confident enough even to risk the embarrassment often stemming from predictions.

If I'd been a real betting man back then, I could have gotten very favorable odds because they were so often underdogs; and I could have won a huge bundle.

Sam

sam wrote:Yeah, the offense was their biggest weak spot last season—except for the defense.

It's always nice to see some optimism, and he does a nice job of listing the assets with which we're all familiar.  Although I'd stop short (way, way short) of making win predictions, there is one great unknown that could have a huge positive or negative effect on the team's performance.  None of the prognosticators has any idea of the extent to which the Celtics could potentially find ways to blend all their individual skills to form an unexpectedly dynamic identity based on athleticism and youth.  It will be fascinating to watch them grow individually and collectively.

Sam

Team Stats, 2013-2014:

http://stats.nba.com/leagueTeamOppShots.html?pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=30


The Celtics ranked, defensively:

19th in fg% allowed from 1-5 feet - 59.8%
28th in fg% allowed from 5-9 feet - 41.2%
26th in fg% allowed from 10-14 feet - 41.5%
22nd in fg% allowed from 15-19 feet - 41.1%
5th in fg% allowed from 20-24 feet - 36.9%
11th in fg% allowed from 25-29 feet - 33.5%


Not surprisingly, our weakness defensively was closer to the basket.  We did a credible job, however, of defending the 3ptr.  However, this doesn't provide all the info necessary to determine what's what.

Of the 6644 fga given up by the Celtics last year, 37.6% were from 1-5' and 56.1% were taken from within 15' (free throw line distance).  So, where we were weakest we also had the most fgas taken against us (no big surprise there, that's what scouting and film will tell you).  I seem to remember reading that our 3pt defense in the last month or so of the season was one of the best in the league.

Also, not surprisingly, the team with the best interior defense, the Indiana Pacers, had fewer fgas tried against them inside vs outside, while we were the opposite.  Great interior defense encourages opposing teams to shoot more from outside, and vice versa.  Indy's numbers were 32.4% fgas taken 1-5' (2188 fgas vs 2499 for Bos), 52.8% of total fgas from inside 15' (3559 fgas vs 3729 for Bos).  What is also interesting is that Indy allowed more fgas, total, than Boston.  6743 total fgas allowed by Indy vs only 6644 for the Celtics.  So, we did a good job of containing our opponent's opportunities, we just didn't do a good job of stopping them when they did shoot.

Bottom line, we had no beef, no height inside last year.  We had a 6'9" earthbound PF playing center, being spelled by a 7'0" alligator-armed rookie toothpick.  That has been improved some with the addition of Zeller and an extra year of experience for Olynyk (not to mention a few more pounds of muscle).  Will we skyrocket to the top of the charts?  No, not even close, but any improvement large enough to quote will force teams to think twice about "just dump it inside, they can't stop us" and if they back off that, even a little bit, they play to our strength.  Rondo will be quicker as he completes his rehab.  Bradley and Smart will duke it out for bragging rights over "who is the best on-the-ball defender?".  Pressey will be the same ol' pest.  Any improvements that shift opposing teams' proclivity to move away from the area where you were one of the worst in the league and towards the area where you are one of the best is a big win in close games where victory is decided by an empty possession or two either way.

We lost a lot of games because we just could not stop people inside, especially late.  Any improvements there will produce more misses by them inside and more wins for us.  Any improvements there that has opposing coach's calling ATO plays that call for a kick out to a perimeter shooter produces more misses by them and more wins for us.  If we don't fall down on transition defense, there will be only so many fgas by the opposing team and the more we can get them to take shots that play to our defensive strength, because we've improved our weaknesses, will produce disproportionately positive results.

Easier baskets, by executing our own uptempo transition game will also put pressure on them.



bob



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