Greater chance at breakout season: Sullinger or Olynyk?

http://www.csnne.com/blog/celtics-talk/greater-chance-breakout-season-sullinger-or-olynyk


Greater chance at breakout season: Sullinger or Olynyk?

September 15, 2014, 10:45 am

A. Sherrod Blakely


BOSTON — Jared Sullinger has been a star on just about every team he's played for, so to see him doing well in the NBA is not all that surprising to those who have followed his career path.

But it wasn't until Kelly Olynyk's redshirt junior season at Gonzaga did he emerge as more than just a pro prospect, but a potential lottery (top-14) pick.

Both players are in position to have a major impact on the Celtics' fortunes, but who will have the bigger breakout season?

Although Sullinger should be the biggest surprise among the Celtics returning from last season, Olynyk will be a bigger difference-maker on this Boston squad.

As a No. 21 overall pick in the 2012 NBA draft, the level of expectations for Sullinger should be different than they are for Olynyk who was selected by Dallas at No. 13 in 2013 and subsequently traded to Boston.

But if you look back at Olynyk's introductory press conference in July of 2013, team officials did their best to temper the expectations for the 7-foot big man.

Danny Ainge, Boston's president of basketball operations, said at the press conference that both Olynyk and the Celtics' second round pick that year Colton Iverson "are good complimentary players. They need guys to carry a load for them, but they could find a place on our team."

However, it's clear that Olynyk has the ability to do more than just be a complementary player on the floor.

One of the strengths Olynyk has shown almost from the moment he donned a Celtics uniform, is an understanding of how to play the game at a high level by contributing in multiple ways.

Although he is 7-feet tall, Olynyk is not a back-to-the-basket big man. Instead, he often plays the role of a point-forward when he's in the post, reading what the defense is doing and reacting to it with a pass or an aggressive move to the basket.

As a rookie, he averaged 1.6 assists per game which was tied with Sullinger for tops among Celtic big men.

But it wasn't until the final month of the season did Olynyk start to show signs that he could indeed be a high impact performer.

In April, Olynyk averaged 16.6 points and 7.3 rebounds per game while shooting 54.7 percent from the field and 42.9 percent on 3s, the kind of finish that certainly helped him land a spot on the NBA's all-rookie second team.

Those numbers were significantly better than his season averages of 8.7 points and 5.2 rebounds which came on 46.6 shooting from the field and 35.1 percent on 3s.

But as you dig deeper into the analytics data examining an Olynyk-Sullinger comparison, Olynyk gets the edge ... barely.

One area the Celtics are looking to show improvement on from last year, is scoring more efficiently.

Last season, the Celtics had an effective field goal percentage of 47.7 which ranked 28th out of 30 NBA teams.

According to NBA.com/stats, Olynyk had an eFG% of 50.6 compared to 45.8 percent for Sullinger.

Effective field goal percentage is defined as a statistic that "adjusts for value of a 3-point field goal relative to a 2-point field goal."

And then there's Olynyk's true shooting percentage of 54.6 which is almost five percentage points better than Sullinger's average of 49.7.

As a team, the Celtics' TS% was 51.7 which ranked 28th in the league.

True shooting percentage "calculates shooting percentage adjusting for the value of free throws and 3-point field goals."

But beyond the analytics, there's always the eye test.

And there's no mistaking that Olynyk has the physical tools, talent and experience to have a breakout season that stands out not only among his Celtics teammates but also throughout the NBA.


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I'd say they stand an equal chance, especially with the addition of Zeller. Who knows? Perhaps they both will have a breakout year simultaneously.


KJ

Tough one to answer.

Sully has the advantage of the extra year in the league (not to mention his priceless year in Garnett University which Kelly didn't get).  On the other hand, we've never seen what he can do in a skinnied down state.  You would think that'd make him quicker, but how will he handle it physically?  He'll have more trouble just bullying his way in for points and rebounds.  If BDoo has done his job well, though, Sully will be quicker, lighter but as strong or stronger and certainly have more stamina.  A stronger, quicker Sully?  Oh my God.  Other than LaMarcus Aldridge, who's going to stop him?

On the other hand, Kelly made my eyes pop open the last two months of the year.  He has such a unique combination of size, finesse, shooting and IQ.  His primary weakness last year, other than his rookie-ness, was his lack of strength, especially lower body.  He had trouble holding his position against the much stronger players of the NBA, in the low blocks.  His alligator arms didn't help him compensate either for getting bounced back a step.  However, those of us who watched the summer league games saw a Kelly with noticeable muscles in his arms and shoulders (as opposed to last year, when he had NO muscular definition) and I'm assuming BDoo is making sure he's doing comparable work on his legs.  I don't know how much he weighs, but I'll guarantee he's closer to 245# (or even 250#) than 238#.  The muscles, plus the year's experience against these players and in Brad's system, should produce marked improvements in Kelly's game.

Man oh man, I hate to have to choose between them.  I love Sully's game, I absolutely love his physicalness and ganas.  He's a throwback at power forward, back to the days of when men were men and basketball was a non-contact sport in rule books only, but Kelly is whole other beast.  He's what science fiction writers have referred to as "Homo Novus" or "New Man", of which Dirk Nowitzki was the prototype.  He is what power forwards will look like in the NBA for the next generation.  He's a mobile stretch 4 who, if he continues to put on good weight and muscle so he can also play inside, will make him very, very tough to stop.  I've been on record as NOT being a fan of stretch 4s but now that we have one, I'm really looking forward, and hoping, to being wrong.

Heads we win, tails the other guys lose.  I'm fine leaving it at that until we move further into the season.




bob



.

I'm not sure I see either one of them as a big minutes guy.  I'd like to see each develop his individual strengths, which could very well be complementary with one another.  If they both mature as the might, Danny would have an overload of high-impact power forwards.  I believe he wouldn't disintegrate at the prospect.

Sam

Hi,
I hope Danny won't have to choose between them. At this point I can't say I prefer one over the other.
Also, I wonder if in cases when the opposition doesn't have a dominant 5 they can both play 4.5 - kind of PF+PF instead of PF+C.

AK

Sinus,

One thing (among many) which KG left with us was the expression, "Anything's possible!"  And, as Danny has proven in his offseason moves to date, not everything is predictable.

Sam

sinus007 wrote:Hi,
I hope Danny won't have to choose between them. At this point I can't say I prefer one over the other.
Also, I wonder if in cases when the opposition doesn't have a dominant 5 they can both play 4.5 - kind of PF+PF instead of PF+C.

AK

that's what I have been saying also.

IF both reach their potential, why do we have to pick one?

if they are our BEST big men, let them play. let the coaching staff find a way to make it work on the defensive end.

there really are not that many traditional centers that actually play in the NBA anymore.

so lets call our big men...power center....or center forward...whatever.

put the best players on the court the most minutes.

Until Vitor can prove he belongs, I can see Kelly and Sully playing, on average, about one-third of the game together.  I can see a Zeller-Sully combo to start, with Kelly being the first big off the bench.  Kelly normally will replace Sully, but that would change if Zeller gets into foul trouble.

If Vitor does improve, he won't have to be the starter this season.  Coming off the bench may be a better role for him.

In regards to Bass, his steadiness has value, hopefully with another team.  Once the season starts, his value to other teams will increase as their players begin to show up on the injured list.

It is going to be interesting to see how this plays out.

gyso

I like both Kelly and Sully, but time will tell. Hurry season, hurry fast, I'm at that point, I might not last. Hawk

kdp59 wrote:
that's what I have been saying also.

IF both reach their potential, why do we have to pick one?

if they are our BEST big men, let them play. let the coaching staff find a way to make it work on the defensive end.

there really are not that many traditional centers that actually play in the NBA anymore.

so lets call our big men...power center....or center forward...whatever.

put the best players on the court the most minutes.

The Celtics have a unique situation in that there are a lot of solid players than can come in and play decent minutes as well as produce.

I think that Brad should instead opt for a deeper rotation, as San Antonio does, instead of just picking 7-8 guys and giving them the lion's share of game time. If there are injuries, the replacement players will have to adjust, and it's easier for them to step in at a higher level if they are accustomed to playing frequently.


KJ