Summer Quandaries: State Of The Point Guard

http://celticsgreen.blogspot.com/2014/09/sq14-53-celtics-state-of-point-guard.html








Prospects are sunny, with a chance of very thin coverage.  Since I am in the Rondo stays to rebuild “his” team and Smart and Bradley round out a three-headed guard Cerberus that terrorizes opposing backcourts for years to come, I think the point guard position is just fine.  Those Rondo-phobes calling for his trade for a bag of beans rather than lose the bean-bonanza when he leaves in free-agency next summer, not so much.  Seriously there is no other position with such a broad range of appraisal on this Celtics team.

Even though Rajon Rondo has not returned to his pre-surgery excellence (at least not yet), few doubt (unless they were already doubters before the injury) that he will progress over the course of this season back into the upper levels of NBA point guard play.  Rondo is a uniquely gifted passing point guard.  His court vision, timing, and precision are unequaled.  

He embraced the assistant coach role when limited physically last training camp and I think he will be a superb sensei for Marcus Smart.  The babble about the difficulty of them playing together, or even coexisting on the same team, creating friction where none exists, at least not now.  Could these be issues in the future, sure; but this will work just fine if the participants want to work together and Stevens can appropriately mesh their skill sets with his motion offense.  

The real question mark is Smart.  I don’t think that, after summer league and practice with the international team, anyone believes he will be a lost-in-the-headlights, or even just unsure, rookie.  However NBA point guard is one of the hardest transitions from college ball.  I, at least, have some doubts remaining as to how much of a creative passer he is at this stage of his development.  When aggressiveness is your primary talent, with shooting and passing lagging behind, then one has to wonder how effective he can be right out of the gate.  I think he will be a good player, but perhaps not for a season or two.  There is still a question about what his best position will be.  Some say point, some the two, some either, and others neither.  Certainly it is a tall order for any rookie to play significant minutes well; at point guard, more difficult; and at two positions, even more challenging.

The good news is that Phil Pressey showed last year, as an undrafted rookie, that he can provide solid minutes at backup guard.  So Smart doesn’t have to be totally in control October 28th.  If the Celtics need to limit him to one position to become accustomed to the pro game, fine.  If that needs to be shooting guard rather than the point, o.k.  That said I do think that Smart will start the season backing up Rondo at the point; and that he will see minutes behind Bradley at the two; and that the guard rotation will be the backbone of this year’s team.

If Rondo is moved in the next month, throw away most of the above.  I actually think this is highly unlikely and will give it no more thought--except this, if Rondo goes, then Smart better come on like gangbusters or point guard goes from the most solid position to the least solid.

A more probable, but interesting, scenario is Rondo being moved near the trade deadline.  If Smart has progressed nicely at the point over the first half of the season, fine, the point guard position will be o.k., just needing continued growth along with the rest of the team.  It would no longer be a strength, but might not be the greatest weakness of these Celtics.  I don’t favor Ainge steering this course but I do see it as a real possibility, and a necessity if Rondo has indicated to Danny that he absolutely intends to jump ship next summer.

Now if Rondo goes, it brings up the fact that Evan Turner has played at the point occasionally.  I see little advantage to this course of action but it certainly qualifies as a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency stop gap; and I would favor this experiment over playing Bradley out of position.

Only 11 more days to training camp.




bob
MY NOTE:  A fairly well balanced presentation.  I agree with him about Smart.  His shooting and passing need work, but his defense and aggressiveness are all I could ask for, and more.  If Bradley and Lee were "The Pitbulls", then Bradley and Smart are "The Rabid Pit Bulls". If you liked watching Bradley/Lee blow up opposing back courts, you're gonna be glued to the TV this year. It will be a few years before he can step up as a starting point guard, IMO.  He has skills and IQ, I'm just not sure he's a natural, like Rondo and Pressey are. Skills and IQ, though, will carry you a long way.

Evan Turner playing point forward (Lee said " point guard", but he's not a guard)?  I agree with Lee about running the offense through Turner than Bradley but between Pressey and Smart I would hope it doesn't come to Turner or Bradley.  If you're going to see a choice between Turner and Bradley, it'll be at SG. I could see 6'7" Turner coming in against bigger SGs and Smart playing point. OPTIMALLY, I'd like the ball to move around and not run through any one player longer than it takes that player to decide if he has an open shot, pass or driving lane.

Our two strongest positions are point and PF.  Tons of depth, tons of versatility.  The only thing we don't have, at point guard, is a shoot-first point guard.  Why would we want one of them?  Because in a motion offense the point guard is just as likely to be the open shooter/passer/driver as anybody else and he has to be able to take and hit those shots with complete confidence and without any hesitation.




.

Actually, a motion offense doesn't dictate that all five positions take about the same number of shots.  It's a matter of how opponents defend the motion offense.  The motion offense thrives on weaknesses caused in the defense, and the nature of those weaknesses may vary from team to team.

I think Lee mentioned Turner's playing the point, not specifying whether he meant guard or forward; but the context he provided elsewhere suggests he meant the guard position.

Which would be worse: (1) ending up with no Rondo but being able to use much of his salary to sign a pretty good fee agent or  (2) accepting a bag of beans in a Rondo trade just for the sake of getting something for him while having his cap money tied up in a bag of beans?

Sam

sam wrote:Actually, a motion offense doesn't dictate that all five positions take about the same number of shots.  It's a matter of how opponents defend the motion offense.  The motion offense thrives on weaknesses caused in the defense, and the nature of those weaknesses may vary from team to team.

I think Lee mentioned Turner's playing the point, not specifying whether he meant guard or forward; but the context he provided elsewhere suggests he meant the guard position.

Which would be worse: (1) ending up with no Rondo but being able to use much of his salary to sign a pretty good fee agent or  (2) accepting a bag of beans in a Rondo trade just for the sake of getting something for him while having his cap money tied up in a bag of beans?

Sam

sam,

True, a motion offense doesn't say "everybody takes the same number of shots", but if the PG is moving to an open space and he's open and gets the ball, he should take the shot. If the ball goes into the low post and the defense collapses and the player underneath is forced to kick it out to the point guard, he should take the shot. If another player, the SG for example, is open and the ball goes to them, they should take the shot. What I was trying to say is that the play shouldn't have to be reset just because it's back in the PG's hands. If he's open and in one of his sweet spots, he shoots, just like everybody else. Rondo's shot has improved over the years, we'll see what has happened to Phil's. Based upon summer league, not much. Smart, I think, will shoot, I'm just waiting to see how long it takes for the jitters to come off.



bob


.

Bob,

I know all that.  I was just contesting the comment that "in a motion offense, the point guard is just as likely to be the open shooter/passer/driver as anyone else.  I don't believe the shooting part is necessarily true.  Of course, there can be plays off the motion offense that will uneven the playing field as far as which player is likely to be open a disproportionate amount of time.

Sam

and I would add, does a motion offense require a great or classic point guard?

it would seem having many able passers with high IQ who can all SHOOT, is a better match.

can Rondo be that guy?

he hasn't been that type of player before....but we shall see.