Summer Quandaries: New Guys--Rotation Or Not?

http://celticsgreen.blogspot.com/2014/09/sq14-61-new-guys-rotation-or-not.html








Looking at the new players on this year’s Celtics, what are the chances that they become rotation players this year?  Here are some totally fabricated percentages with a dose of rationale.


Marcus Smart  97%
Not only has every coach and scout raved about his play (well except for shooting--they still do that in the NBA don’t they?) but he is a high pick with exactly the defensive DNA that Coach Stevens has touted.  The question seems to be whether he plays backup to Rondo at the point, or to Bradley at shooting guard, or both.


Tyler Zeller  90%  
This should probably be even higher.  He is my favorite for starting center in game one, and I am actually expecting very good things from him.  He runs exceptionally well, has a developing offensive game, defends smart although without being a great leaper, and has a reputation for being a smart player.  The problem is that his only real competition is Faverani and Olynyk.  Vitor is coming off knee surgery, a DWI traffic accident during his rehab/vacation in Spain, and had a two game run of promise to start last season before fading into the background.  Olynyk was abused in the post last year but if stronger he might play some serviceable minutes at center.  The problem is that Kelly’s strongest features so far are his outside shot, passing ability, and sneaky awkward drives around defenders rushing at him on the three-point line.  Kelly sometimes reminds me of a young colt--unsure of his long limbs, and often moving along as if his body is catching up with him in segments.

Evan Turner  45%  
My formula for Turner’s success is applicable for every player left in the list:  play hard on defense, play within the team system, play within your capabilities, address your weakness with tincture of effort.  Come to think of it, that’s not a bad recipe for any player, at any level.  Turner has a chance to contribute at two positions (SF and SG) and you could throw in some spot duty at PG in specific situations.  He has fallen far enough (i.e. close to out of the league) to begin searching his soul for answers other than same old, same old.  If his answer come up, It’s THEM, have a seat and we hope you enjoy Europe or China.  If however, the answer is Maybe it’s ME, then I think things are set up for him to reinvent himself as a contributor, facilitator, spot scorer, and team player.  Just how successful will likely hinge on how devoted to defense he becomes, and this would truly be the leopard changing his spots.

Marcus Thornton  25%  
Same song, second verse; just sung lower and more wistfully (or is that less hopefully?).  I think this might be one year too early for Marcus to get a bounce off hitting bottom.  When he hits free-agency and his agent offers in hushed tones, “Nobody seems to want you,” then he might be ready to look closely in the mirror.  Unlike Turner who will be signing his second, and far less lucrative, contract, Thornton is on a second, and far more lucrative, contract than he got as a much lower draft pick.  My suspicion is that Marcus is still convinced the problems lie in THEM not ME.  I think the Celtics are not, or at least not yet, invested in Thornton.  He seems to be the salary dump taken to get the picks and Zeller out of the Cleveland LeBron clearing.  Could he be a nice reclamation project, sure, but a pretty low percentage one.  To rinse and repeat, the keys will be attitude and defense, neither purportedly Marcus’s strong points.

James Young  25%  
I think he just to raw to claim minutes right out of the gate.  He goes almost exclusively to his left, has no right hand, plays indifferent defense, and is a streaky shooter whose high school stroke never quite transferred in college.  Let’s just say he’s got some work to do.  Now if the question was “Who might emerge as a rotation player after the All Star break,” then Young would be the leading candidate.  After the D-league starts up later in November, I think James, and the Celtics, would be much better served by his logging 25+ minutes a night in Maine.  It is interesting that with the Claws so near to Boston, it is quite easy to bring Young down for practice and maybe even a few minutes as a progress check.  Would be a nice plum to reward for him making strides as well as a night of rest for a banged up corps of shooting guards, or a little shove if the two’s are becoming complacent (Thornton, Turner, even Smart).  


Only 3 more days until training camp.




bob
MY NOTE:  This is, in some ways, a sister column to Sam's (great minds think alike), but Lee's only looks at the newbies and how well he thinks they will blend in while Sam's is far more comprehensive.  Will Turner and Thornton embrace the change?  I learned a helluva lot more from the jobs I was fired from and the deals that I lost than I did from all the promotions and successes.  How about these guys?  One could put Zeller in the same category, I suppose.  He was a starting center and then he got replaced by an aging PF/C and then traded.  Fortunately, I think that because he was neither the #2 pick nor an $8M/year player, Tyler Zeller is more likely to embrace whatever Brad Stevens asks him to do.  Regardless, Tyler Zeller will be a rotation player, the only question is his effectiveness.  I'll be fall down shocked if James Young is a rotation player this year.  Actually, let me take that back, if we have a career ending injury to Jeff Green and Wallace's knee explodes like that famous super slo-mo photo of a bullet going through an apple, it's possible.  At 6'7" he's a bit small for SF, he really should become an NBA SG, but there's no room for him there now.  Smart will be a rotation player, probably covering 2, if not 3, positions.


.

Hi,
Here is another take on the subject.
IMHO, CF has a lot of catch up to do.

AK

sinus007 wrote:Hi,
Here is another take on the subject.
IMHO, CF has a lot of catch up to do.

AK

sinus,

CF?


bob



.

Bobh,
Sorry. CF = Chris Forsberg

AK

Bob,

I believe CF is Chris Forsberg, the author of the article for which Sinus posted the link.

Sam

One positive thing about this off-season's roster is that there's a reasonable chance that all of the players will be available (perhaps some on a limited basis) from the getgo.  Barring more transactions that many people believe are inevitable, they'll all have the immediate opportunity to become disciples of Brad's emphasis on details and practitioners of whatever systems he plans.

One thing about Doc's training camps that always bothered me was that he deliberately stayed away from all but very basic plays during the preseason.  Then he'd be concerned about the lack of practice time and the limitations that imposed on his ability to insert plays.

That approach has competed with lack of pushing the ball persistently as my chief reasons for not being a fan of the offense in recent years.  I hope Brad will be able to change things.  He'll definitely need to jumpstart  any changes with a fearsome schedule looming up in November.

Sam