Which Celtic Has The Most Upside Right Now?

Which Boston Celtics Player Has the Most Upside Right Now?
By Michael Pina , Featured Columnist Sep 25, 2014





Which Boston Celtics Player Has the Most Upside Right Now?Tony Dejak/Associated Press



Entering the 2014-15 season, the one member of the Boston Celtics possessing the most upside is also majestically coiffed and commonly viewed more as a trade asset than a functioning basketball player. That's right: Kelly Olynyk.

A true 7-footer whose skill set falls in line with the successful contemporary big man's blueprint, Olynyk’s rookie season was unheralded but surprisingly impressive. His growing skill set could easily open doors in Year 2 that previously didn’t exist.

Now 23 years old, the 2013 lottery pick finished his debut season shooting 46.6 percent from the floor, averaging 8.7 points and 5.2 rebounds per game (in 20 minutes on the dot). Those numbers won’t make you salivate, but there were still several high moments to take away from the year, and Olynyk’s steady improvement from month to month only raises the bar for what's ahead.


Elise Amendola/Associated Press


For the 22 games Olynyk played in March and April, per Basketball-Reference, he averaged 12.2 points, 6.1 rebounds and upped his field-goal percentage to 53.1 percent. It was a strong way to end an otherwise dire season playing for a team headed nowhere, but what’s most impressive outside those numbers is how accurate Olynyk was from beyond the arc.

Seven-footers who can consistently knock down threes are an exceptionally rare and beautiful thing; humongous, well-coordinated unicorns. With Boston’s season all but finished heading into the final few weeks of the season, Olynyk was granted permission to bomb away. He attempted 2.0 threes per game (in 22.4 minutes) and made a sensational 44.4 percent of them.


The sample size here is small, but these numbers warrant legitimate excitement for a player who entered the NBA with that very skill in his back pocket. Coming out of Gonzaga, Olynyk was one of the most efficient scorers in college basketball, able to shoot from just about anywhere and create his own shot at will.

It’s not a surprise, in other words, that Olynyk finally began to stretch the defense a little bit. He's smarter now, too, and several speedy playmakers in the backcourt will help create open looks and make up for his below average athleticism. Olynyk has the potential to add a whole new dimension to Boston's long-sagging offense.

In the 1,400 minutes Olynyk played last season, the Celtics averaged 102.9 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com—highest on the team. Olynyk didn’t turn his team into the 2007 Phoenix Suns (that number was exactly what the Detroit Pistons and Sacramento Kings plodded into last season), but when he sat, Boston’s offensive rating fell to 97.9, per NBA.com (subscription required). Only the Philadelphia 76ers posted a lower number than that. Olynyk made a difference.

Boston spent stretches running its offense through him from the high post, putting him in pick-and-rolls and even a few post-ups. He showed intelligence with the ball and an ability to make quick decisions while reading the defense.

Defensively, Boston stayed about the same whether Olynyk was playing or not. That isn’t a compliment, but it’s not insulting, either. Olynyk spent the entire season at center, out of position, forced to assume the unnatural role of rim protector. He had no veteran centers to show him the ropes and basically had to pick up back-line defensive rotations on the fly.

Still, he looked much better doing so after the All-Star break than before it, and the rate at which he should improve in his sophomore season gives hope to the possibility that Olynyk eventually becomes much more than a one-dimensional scorer.

Here’s what Celtics general manager Danny Ainge told ESPNBoston’s Chris Forsberg after the season:

I think Kelly has had a really good second half. I think he gained some confidence when we went to the All-Star break and represented the rookie team. I think I’ve been really happy with how he’s improved. I think the coaches have done a good job of getting him stronger, a good job of teaching him the game and I think he’s a great player.

Back to offense. Here’s a closer look, courtesy of CelticsBlog’s Kevin O’Connor, at some of Olynyk’s numbers, and why we may not have given his rookie season the proper due:

Olynyk's per 36-minute averages of 15.6 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 2.8 assists put him in good company in NBA history. Only nine centers or power forwards 23-years or younger have had per 36 averages of at least 12 points, eight rebounds, and two assists, with a 33.0 three-point percentage. ...

While Olynyk's PER isn't in the same league as players like Dirk, KG, Bird, and Love, it still says something that he put himself on this exclusive list as a rookie.

In fact, Olynyk and Bird are the only rookies on the list, further establishing the point that KO's rookie year was special -- maybe even more so than we give it credit for.

Olynyk’s second season in the league is virtually guaranteed to be better than his first. The training wheels are off, and having better overall talent around him on a consistent basis (guess what: Rajon Rondo makes teammates better!) should make life easier for Olynyk on both ends of the court.

Add in the fact that some complementary pieces were added to the roster, like fellow 7-footer Tyler Zeller, who can play center and allow Olynyk to slide down to a more natural fit at the 4.  

Olynyk’s ceiling probably isn’t that of an All-Star, but he’s already shown an ability to help out on offense. He’s on track to become one of the finest passing bigs in the league, and he experienced less trouble than expected rebounding—especially on the offensive glass—in his rookie season.

If he continues to improve in these areas while solidifying himself as a respected marksman behind the three-point line, the Celtics may have much more than a useful trade chip on their hands.



All statistics are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com unless otherwise noted.




bob
MY NOTE:  We need a Clifford Ray-like Big Man Coach.  He'll not only teach Kelly, but Sully and Zeller could benefit from it as well.  Who knows?  Maybe Joel Anthony will play that mentor role?


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