Is Rondo's Trade Value Shot?

Blakely says there's still time for Rondo to come back, show "he's back" and get good offers for him (Trader Danny is always listening even if he'd prefer to keep him). Minihane and Tanguay says his trade value is shot because he's coming off of two straight injuries requiring surgery and won't be in prime shape and have his top game going.


Setting aside whether you WANT Rondo to be traded or not, do you think this injury will damage his value so much that Danny cannot/will not trade him because he doesn't feel he's getting value in return?



bob




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The injury itself is not serious and by all accounts he is in great shape. If I was going to trade him it would not be today.

There is concern in my mind that the missed games are really starting to add up. But Danny is ahead of the curve on this one. I wanted to see a legit center the past 2 drafts. This year Danny had to add quality depth behind Rondo. Smart represents quality depth.

This should be a very interesting time for us Celtics fans. Now we get to reconfigure the team and that makes for great conversation with everyone.

dboss

Trying to pick which one is right, Blakely or Tanguay, makes my head spin!  

The trading deadline isn't until February, so that means Tanguay is still the King of Idiotville.

gyso

dboss wrote:The injury itself is not serious and by all accounts he is in great shape.  If I was going to trade him it would not be today.

There is concern in my mind that the missed games are really starting to add up.  But Danny is ahead of the curve on this one.  I wanted to see a legit center the past 2 drafts.  This year Danny had to add quality depth behind Rondo.  Smart represents quality depth.

This should be a very interesting time for us Celtics fans.  Now we get to reconfigure the team and that makes for great conversation with everyone.

dboss

he had surgery so I wouldn't label it not serious, however agreed glad its not a knee or on his shooting hand, bottomline Tanguay is an idiot, if Rondo has 3 or 4 triple doubles by Feb, which is not difficult for him, we could get a legit deal for Rondo....and I'm not saying I want to get rid of him, I want to see how a 3 guard rotation of Rondo- AB- Smart looks.

If Rondo is playing well at the deadline and a team that is in contention is in need of a PG - his trade value will be as high as it it was or has been. Kirk Minihane is a sexist, lame brain who know about as much about sports as my house cat. Idiot!!

I suspect the factors bearing on Rondo's future with the Celtics or another team will not change just because of his time lost to injury.

His body of work will also be important.  However, his varied injuries are mounting to the point where he could become known as a part-time player in certain circles.

Sam

Let him walk unless the Celts can get an elite player, or one that has the potential to be an elite player, in return. I define elite as a player that has ALL LEAGUE CREDENTIALS as a scorer and/or rebounder. An additional 13 million off the books next year could be a big help in the free agency market over the next couple years.
swish

RR will make sure the C's will never get what they should for him.

Is his trade value shot? Not by any means. Has it decreased any? To an extent. Logically speaking, any injury to a player will hurt their relative value. The positive from this is the fact that the injury is not a major one like an ACL, Achilles injury.

If the plan is to trade Rajon Rondo at some point, I'm sure there are a bunch of contenders that would want him. But people seem to forget that the trading market is stagnant. There isn't going to be a ton of major moves. The real movement lies in free agency. If a team is just a notch away from having that piece they need to get to the finals, they'd have to make a lot of sacrifices in a trade for Rondo, or any star-caliber player for that matter.

Swish says let him walk. Personally, I think it would be incredibly poor management on the Celtics' part if they did not get something in return for him. How can you just let someone like that walk? He's an All-Star, championship-caliber point guard, not the 12th guy off the bench.


KJ

I continue to feel that decisions about Rondo's future, as they pertain to the the Celtics, should not be made on a monetary basis.  If he is the right person to fit seamlessly into Brad's vision for the future and the floor general needs inherent in that vision, then what is that worth?  If no one else is available who can fit those requirements, he deserves to get what he asks.  If not, get what you can for him and sever ties.

Sam

I just happen to believe that getting 13 million for Rondo is one helluva good deal.
swish

swish wrote:Let him walk unless the Celts can get an elite player, or one that has the potential to be an elite player,  in return. I define elite as a player that has ALL LEAGUE CREDENTIALS as a scorer and/or rebounder. An additional 13 million off the books next year could be a big help in the free agency market over the next couple years.
swish

swish,

I've read other people, here and there, suggesting that we should just let Rondo walk if he won't agree to our terms.  I must say this approach makes zero sense to me.

1.  Rondo was 3rd team All League in 2011-2012.  In 2012-2013 he blew out his ACL, last year was 2013-2014.  So, Rondo was All League in the last year he was 100% healthy.  This hand fracture, if not rushed, is insignificant.  If he has fallen off that lofty pinnacle and isn't expected to regain it, then why would another team trade an All League player for him?  They'll want value for value.

2.  We tried to trade Rondo for CP3, that didn't happen.  There are rumors about trading Rondo for Westbrook, we'll see about that.  Other than that, who do you think would be available?  Not only is the All League team a short list, teams tend to hold onto those players for dear life.  Here are the last few years All League teams.  Which players on these teams do you think might become available for trading for Rondo?

2012–13

1st Team-------------------------------------------2nd Team---------------------------------------------------3rd Team
LeBron James^ (9), Miami Heat-------------------Carmelo Anthony^ (6), New York Knicks--------------------David Lee^, Golden State Warriors
Kevin Durant^ (4), Oklahoma City Thunder------Blake Griffin^ (2), Los Angeles Clippers---------------------Paul George^, Indiana Pacers
Tim Duncan^ (14), San Antonio Spurs------------Marc Gasol^, Memphis Grizzlies-----------------------------Dwight Howard^ (7), Los Angeles Lakers
Kobe Bryant^ (15), Los Angeles Lakers-----------Tony Parker^ (3), San Antonio Spurs-----------------------Dwyane Wade^ (, Miami Heat
Chris Paul^ (5), Los Angeles Clippers--------------Russell Westbrook^ (3), Oklahoma City Thunder----------James Harden^, Houston Rockets


2013–14

1st Team-------------------------------------------2nd Team---------------------------------------------------3rd Team
Kevin Durant^ (5), Oklahoma City Thunder------Blake Griffin^ (3), Los Angeles Clippers-------------------Paul George^ (2), Indiana Pacers
LeBron James^ (10), Miami Heat-----------------Kevin Love^ (2), Minnesota Timberwolves----------------LaMarcus Aldridge^ (2) Portland Trail Blazers
Joakim Noah^, Chicago Bulls----------------------Dwight Howard^ (, Houston Rockets---------------------Al Jefferson^, Charlotte Bobcats
James Harden^ (2), Houston Rockets-------------Stephen Curry^, Golden State Warriors--------------------Goran Dragić^, Phoenix Suns
Chris Paul^ (6), Los Angeles Clippers--------------Tony Parker^ (4), San Antonio Spurs----------------------Damian Lillard^, Portland Trail Blazers


3.  All League Players don't want to be the only superstar anymore.  After seeing the successes of Pierce/Garnett/Allen in Boston and LBJ/Wade/Bosh in Miami they want to be one of several All League players or, at least, All Stars.  There is only one player on the Celtics that fits that description and that player is Rondo.  Trade Rondo and why would an All League player WANT to come here?  As Danny has said, Rondo has the cache necessary to draw high quality free agents.  Without him, we don't.  Rebuilding would be MUCH longer and painful if we had to do it all organically and bootstrap up All Stars, rather than importing another one or two.

4.  Rondo is the #1 most tradeable asset Danny has, probably by far.  A lot of people talk about Sully and how much he is liked by GMs around the league but he's not as coveted as Rondo (and, oh, as you've noticed, Flip Saunders was not interested in taking Sully as part of a deal for Love.  So maybe Sully isn't as coveted as some writers have suggested?).  You don't just give away assets.  If you have something/someone someone else wants, you try to get something for giving that thing/person up.  That's Business 101.  Letting him walk says we get nothing for him.  Letting him go to open up salary cap money assumes that players worth all that now-free money are available (either by trade, in which case don't just let him walk) or as free agents.  I believe free agents will come here if Rondo is here and will not if he is not.  Even if Sully or whomever becomes an All Star this year, that won't be enough.  One one-time All Star isn't going to open free agents' eyes.  Rondo has a ring.  He has been to the mountain top and every single player in the league knows it.

5.  Unless Phil Pressey and/or Marcus Smart blossom into forces of nature this year letting Rondo walk creates a problem in our already problematic offense.

I believe we need to re-sign Rondo for fair market value, whatever that is.  Fair market value is fair market value, even if the number stuns you.  Once he's re-signed for 4-5 years at fair market value his trade value increases because of the predictability and stability that comes from not being in the Celtics' position now.  He could be signed-and-traded, he could be signed and traded later or not.  The point is, once he's signed it's up to us what happens and not him and his agent or other mind-game playing GMs (it is now being reported that the whole "Minny is going to offer Bledsoe a max contract" was a big ruse, probably started by Bledsoe's agent, but it broke the logjam and got Bledsoe more money and, you'll also note, Flip never denied or refuted the rumor).

$12,909,000 is how much Rondo will make this year. You don't think he's going to get a raise from someone if he can show his knee, not his hand, is ok?



bob



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It all boils down to what type of team do we have after free agency next year and what the Celtic ownership will be willing to pay Rondo.

1)  If we are still a rebuilding team after free agency feeding frenzy is over with and there is still a  2-3 year window to respectability, Rondo will either stay with the Celtics only for a max deal $5 years $20m per and enjoy the monetary compensation for time wasted in getting another championship ring, or

2)  Take less money ($16 -$17M per year) and sign with a possible contending championship team.

Question is would the Celtic ownership pay him that amount to stick around if we are unable to create  some fireworks next season?

The answer is NO! 

Point guard position in general is not a max contract position and the Celtics would never lock themselves into such a long a costly deal.

3)  If fireworks are in the air next July/August with some major free agent signings, I believe Rondo then signs with the Celtics for less - $16 - $17 M for 5 years.

I do not see any other logical moves for Rondo given this could be his last major contract (monetary wise) of his career.

112288

112288 wrote:It all boils down to what type of team do we have after free agency next year and what the Celtic ownership will be willing to pay Rondo.

1)  If we are still a rebuilding team after free agency feeding frenzy is over with and there is still a  2-3 year window to respectability, Rondo will either stay with the Celtics only for a max deal $5 years $20m per and enjoy the monetary compensation for time wasted in getting another championship ring, or

2)  Take less money ($16 -$17M per year) and sign with a possible contending championship team.

Question is would the Celtic ownership pay him that amount to stick around if we are unable to create  some fireworks next season?

The answer is NO! 

Point guard position in general is not a max contract position and the Celtics would never lock themselves into such a long a costly deal.

3)  If fireworks are in the air next July/August with some major free agent signings, I believe Rondo then signs with the Celtics for less - $16 - $17 M for 5 years.

I do not see any other logical moves for Rondo given this could be his last major contract (monetary wise) of his career.

112288

112288,

I still say Danny will re-sign him, assuming he's still a Celtic after this season, for fair market value. What happens after that is something else. He might sign a max contract and then be traded. If Flip Saunders didn't just let Kevin Love "walk" I don't see Danny doing it either.

As far as what "fair market value" is:

Chris Paul - $20.07M/year
Westbrook - $15.7M/year
Bledsoe - $14.0M/year
D. Williams - $19.7M/year
K. Irving - $19M/year

Bledsoe hasn't done much of anything, was injured, and just signed for $14M/year. Irving just got an extension this summer. He's a helluva talent, and is only 22 years old. Is Rondo worse than Bledsoe? Is he much worse than Westbrook? Both of those players are better scorers, for sure, but are they better floor generals? Do they run better offenses?

Those are not max contracts, except for Paul, but they're not cheap either. For me, if Rondo can bring another all-star/all league player here, then pay him the extra mill or two. The value of a winning franchise takes off and will offset whatever higher team salaries you have to pay in order to put a winning team on the court. DWade isn't, and wasn't, what he used to be but he had what it took to convince LBJ to take his talents to South Beach and once that was announced the dominoes started to fall. No DWade, no LBJ. No Harden, no Howard. You need one to get one and Rondo is ours.



bob





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BOB,

Good comps.....but I feel Rondo may squeeze Danny's basket balls and only stay if he get $20M X5 years on a poor team or he'll get an average somewhere around $17M and be on a championship contender.

Yes, sign and trade is possible but it would be nearer $17M and not $20M if he goes to a contender but he picks up and gets the extra year.

More and more it sounds like he will be gone.

112288

Hi,
The answer to the question will Rondo go or stay is this.
RR is a dominant type of player and he goes 110% when it counts, i.e. playoffs.
Many suggested that the main reason for him leaving Celtics would be going to a contender or near contender to have a shot at a ring.
If such a team already has PG of similar level there, most probably, will be a conflict that'd bring them down. E.g. can you imagine RR playing along with Parker, Rose or Westbrook?
This leaves teams that don't have such PGs, e.g. Miami, Pacers. Also, those teams have to be able to afford about $17M of RR's salary.
Very few such teams, if any.

Of course, there's a good possibility that DA finds a dancing partner who buys RR without realizing they also got a lot of problems as well.
Also, it's possible that DA blinks first and trades him for 70 cents on a dollar.

My estimate is 70% RR stays.

As for his value, he'll have about 2 months (3-4 weeks to get in shape and then Dec - Feb) to show it to the league.

Just my $0.02
AK

I think the Celtics will give Rondo his payday, for the reasons BobH stated. Getting rid of Rondo/letting him walk creates a huge void. You'd have to draft a once-in-a-decade player to have another star player to build around. If the C's can convince a star to get on board w/Rondo, then there can be more.


KJ

The development of the team and the window of opportunity also will play into this.

If the team looks like they have some solid pieces in place this year, but they are still clearly 3 years from contending - I think Rondo is traded for more chips. If the team surprises people and looks like they are a player or two away, I think Rondo is resigned.

There is no need to pay a guy 20 million a year - if you are not going to even be a contender until he is in his 30s.

mrkleen09 wrote:The development of the team and the window of opportunity also will play into this.

If the team looks like they have some solid pieces in place this year, but they are still clearly 3 years from contending - I think Rondo is traded for more chips.  If the team surprises people and looks like they are a player or two away, I think Rondo is resigned.  

There is no need to pay a guy 20 million a year - if you are not going to even be a contender until he is in his 30s.

Depends on what you mean by "contending." Playoff appearance, or a deep run with a legitimate shot at the title?

This team could probably make the playoffs in the next year or two, with Steven's having more experience as a coach, and with some of the young guys advancing even further. But is that contending? I think this team is quite far from actual contention, and I think 3 years is being generous, provided it's without major changes. If Boston can bring in stars, such as with the 2007 offseason, then we could see the title window reopen. But I don't see how trading Rondo opens the window. If anything, it shuts it, provided another star isn't brought back in return.


KJ

k_j_88 wrote:

Depends on what you mean by "contending." Playoff appearance, or a deep run with a legitimate shot at the title?

This team could probably make the playoffs in the next year or two, with Steven's having more experience as a coach, and with some of the young guys advancing even further. But is that contending? I think this team is quite far from actual contention, and I think 3 years is being generous, provided it's without major changes. If Boston can bring in stars, such as with the 2007 offseason, then we could see the title window reopen. But I don't see how trading Rondo opens the window. If anything, it shuts it, provided another star isn't brought back in return.


KJ

If the legitimate window to contend (making the playoffs is not contending) is 5+ years, that would make Rondo 33.  The way he plays, with his hard, diving on the floor style + his recent injuries are bound to add up to an earlier decline than other players.  So to me, if you dont think you have a contender in the next 3 years, you move Rondo for draft picks or a younger player that will be in his prime during the window of opportunity.  I think this is ultimately the way the team will go....Trade Rondo for a younger player and a few more picks - to prepare the team for their legit window in 2017 or 2018

If the young core mature faster than expected, and you feel you can make a run over the next 2-3 years, you go out next summer...you sign Rondo and bring in a free agent that is ready to contribute right away - and you make a run at it.  I just dont see the sense of keeping Rajon at max dollars on a team that is not ready to contend.  The next 6 to 8 months will tell us all we need to know about Rondo and his future in Boston.

The Celtics can't wait to make a decision on Rondo until they see what their roster looks like next season.  He'll be gone by then.  I vlew the first half of the coming season (curtailed though it will be for Rondo) as a Rondo audition for Brad and Danny.  Will he display the ability to be a topnotch floor general in the kind(s) of offense Brad wants to play?  If yes, they probably make the decision to do whatever it takes to keep him.  If not, there's every possibility he could be gone around All Star time.

Sam

Agree 100% with Mr Kleen's post however I think Sam is closer to what may really happen due to the short term window of opportunity to orchestrate a trade or sign a free agent.

All roads concerning Rondo's future with the Celtics lead through the #1 position - the pivot or center position.  As Red's stated, you build from the front court out and that starts with a center. 

We need a true dominating and physical center to keep Rondo long term. Zeller could be groomed to be a nice off the bench player but not a starter long term.  I do believe if we are patient picking up Greg Monroe from free agency is a nice find and could fill the position in tandem with Zeller.

But the center position with a talented player is going to command Big Bucks perhaps close to a Max deal .....not sure the Celtic ownership has the appetite to spend those dollars.


112288