Zach Lowe Predicts Jeff Green Will Be Traded (And Rondo Will Not)

This is an excerpt from his column, which lists "33 Crazy Predictions".  Yeah, way to sell it, Zach.  I guess, if you're going on record and calling something "50/50" you gotta be at least a little crazy.





2. Boston will keep Rajon Rondo and trade Jeff Green.

Gather all the intel you’d like, and this will still be a borderline 50/50 guess on both guys.

Boston has gauged the market for both over the last year or so, and its expected price for Rondo has been sky-high, per several league sources. That price will drop as Rondo’s deal ticks toward expiration, but the market for him is thin. Point guard is stacked leaguewide, and Rondo is 28, coming off ACL surgery, and seeking a max contract as he approaches free agency. A few suitors could wait to chase him in the offseason instead of dealing assets now and risking that Rondo walks in July.

If Boston wants a big haul, it has to hope a potential Rondo suitor feels some unexpected desperation early in the season. Houston is under pressure to win now, and if it starts slowly, Daryl Morey might swallow hard and meet Boston in the middle. Rondo and James Harden make for an awkward fit, but talent tends to work itself out, and the Rockets are confident they can re-sign stars once they get them.

Sacramento has outsize expectations after Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins won gold with Team USA, and any owner with outsize expectations is an explosive wild card. The Kings have three point guards, including two free agents they signed this summer, but they will soon realize their team just isn’t very good.

Depending on what happens with Rudy Gay, a Rondo pal, the Kings might not have enough cap space to chase Rondo in free agency — building an urgency to trade for him now.

There are other theoretical fits, but none that has the required combination of trade assets, devil-may-care boldness, and confidence in winning the Rondo free-agency game.1 If a frothy market doesn’t materialize, the Celtics might resign themselves to keeping Rondo in hopes that the extra year they can offer in free agency coaxes him to return at a price below the max.

Rondo is a flawed, temperamental player, but he’s a pass-first star who could work as bait for an alpha dog. Without him, Boston is just a collection of unmolded pieces waiting for a unifying force, playing the lottery in the meantime.

Green has a player option for 2015-16, meaning he may be working on a de facto expiring contract. His price will come down as the season moves along, but Boston might be willing to accept a diminished return. He’s a likable guy with more fans across the league than you might expect, and he can split minutes between the two forward positions.

We know now that Green isn’t a primary offensive option, but he has become a good spot-up shooter, he runs the floor, and he’s a nice secondary threat. He can attack gaps in the defense, provided a teammate cracks them open first.

New Orleans and Washington have obvious needs on the wing, and both have sniffed around Green in the past. But the Pelicans have already traded a bundle of first-round picks, and the Wiz are just $1.5 million below the tax without an obvious midrange salary to move in exchange.

The Raptors have bad memories of Joe Johnson bulldozing them in the post, and they have all their own picks, plus the midsize expiring deals linked to Landry Fields and Chuck Hayes. Atlanta and Detroit could use a boost on the wing, and it’s easy to see Green fitting as a hybrid forward in both Houston and New York. Denver’s roster seems ripe for a trade, though the Nuggets are crowded on the wing.

Green could fit in lots of places. If Boston doesn’t view him as a long-term core piece, he’ll be easy to move.





bob
MY NOTE:  Zach Lowe's usually pretty good, most of the time.  Of course, this time, he's not just analyzing stuff, he's making predictions, which undermine him a bit.  Here, he falls into the same "fantasy trader" trap in that, he highlights the demand for a player on Team A and connects them to a need in Team B but doesn't connect a demand on Team A with a player on Team B.  So, why would Team A make the deal?  What's in it for them?  In this case I find this particularly egregious because Lowe is specifically, explicitly stating that Rondo won't be traded because Danny's demands are too high for another team to swallow.  He, therefore, acknowledges that it takes two to tango.  Why would that be different with Green?  Does Danny have a track record of "giving away the store"?  If anything, I'd say that GMs and owners (like Paul Taylor of Minny) are leery of cutting a big deal with Danny for fear of getting "Ainged". He doesn't get them right all the time but Danny's overall track record is one of "buying low and selling high".



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So, if the market for both Green and Rondo will come down as the season progresses, will it be because they're both having poor season?  Will it be because no contenders have crippling injuries?  Inquiring minds want to know.

Sam