Realistic best case scenarios

by **Shamrock1000** Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:59 pm

I am an unabashed Celtic homer in the mold of the great Tommy Heihnson. Since we are approaching opening night, I would love to hear people's best case scenarios for the team. I'm not smart enough to do a careful analysis, so my approach will be to first make "realistic" predictions for probable major contributors, followed by a "realistic" prediction regarding how many of these players reach these marks.

Kelly Olynyk: 11-7-3
Sullinger: 18-10-4
Jeff Green: 19-6-3
Avery Bradly: 16-3-4
Rajon Rondo: 14-6-12
Tyler Zeller: 8-6-2
Brandon Bass: 12-6-2
Evan Turner: 13-6-4
Marcus Thornton: 9-2-3
Marcus Smart: 8-4-5

Obviously not all of these guys will hit these numbers. If half do, and the other half perform as they did last year, the Celtics will be a pretty good team. If one third reach these numbers, one third maintain current numbers, and one third slightly disappoint, we will still not be terrible. Like I said, I'm not going to go out on a limb other than to make the cowardly prediction that I think we might be better than people expect.

I've put the dart board up, so go ahead and take your shots. Remember, I'm talking "realistic" best case scenarios here....

by **Sam** Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:08 pm

Sorry not to be able to contribute, Shamrock, but I hope you get many interesting responses.

I'm primarily interested in how the team will come together than predicting numbers for individual players—some of whom may not even last the season here. So much of the performances of individual players depend on (1) how well they can adapt to the roles Brad's system will lay out for them and (2) how good a job they do in fattening each other's statistics by enabling one another.

Sam

by **rickdavisakaspike** Wed Oct 22, 2014 12:46 pm

How about predicting who will be on the floor most often in the final minutes of close games?

Kelly, Sully, Green, Turner and Rondo.

by **bobheckler** Wed Oct 22, 2014 1:09 pm

So hard to say, since it is premised heavily upon minutes played. Minutes played are affected by: individual talents and how they well they fit into Stevens' system, injuries (not just games missed but also games played at <100% due to nagging injuries; like Sully and his hand last season and Rondo not having all his rhythm back) and how much on-the-fly tinkering Stevens does this year.

If the thread that claimed that the goal is to "outlast the opposition", or words to that effect, is accurate then I would suspect that many of your numbers will be high since on-court minutes will be spread around more, in order to keep everybody's legs fresh. It would be nice to think they could deliver the same numbers with fewer minutes, and they might if they consistently RUN!!!, but I wouldn't want to hang my hat on it.

If I were to take a stab at it, I might take each returning player's /36mpg numbers from last year, sweeten them up by a couple or 5%. That optimism comes from: another year in Stevens' system, Stevens having another year in Stevens' system :-), each of those players having another year playing with each other and developing chemistry and each player stepping up their individual games a bit. The one exception I might cite would be Thornton. He's a shooter and he has been given permission to light them up at will. While I can't speak to what having a green light like that will do to his shooting decisions and discipline, he might go Steez-crazy and not just be more prolific, it can't hurt a natural shooter to know that he's not going to get into trouble for shooting a lot.

The new players (e.g. Turner, Zeller, etal) I really can't say.

bob

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by **kdp59** Wed Oct 22, 2014 1:37 pm

I sitll say 32-35 win season here. just not enough talent for any more I am afraid right now.

for individual stats..I am basing this guess on no trades happening of course (which won't be the case). also on the idea that Stevens will use a high tempo. high energy defensive scheme, which will drive BU minutes up some.

Kelly- 75 G, 2000 Min- 13 pt, 6 reb, 3 ass per game
Zeller- 79 g, 1400 Min- 5 pt, 4 reb, 1 block per game
Sully- 78 G, 2200 min- 14 pt, 8 reb, 1 ass per game
Bass- 80 G, 1800 min- 7 pt, 4 reb, 1 ass per game
Green- 80 g, 2400 min- 15 pt, 4 reb, 2 ass per game
Turner- 77 g, 1700 min- 8 pt, 2 reb, 2 ass per game
Bradely- 64 g, 2000 min- 14 pt, 2, reb, 2 ass per game
Thornton- 75g, 1600 min- 8 pt, 1 reb, 1 as per game
Rondo- 70 g, 2400 min- 14 pt, 5 reb- 9 ass per game
Smart- 80 g, 1500 min- 5 pt, 2 reb, 2 ass per game

Young, Pressey, Powell and fav take the other 700 min or so.

whoops didn't change my minutes off the bench!

by **sinus007** Wed Oct 22, 2014 2:05 pm

Hi,
I think that Shamrock's too optimistic about individual stats. As for the team, I'll stick with my summer prediction of 30-35 wins, but I wouldn't be surprised if they make playoffs. I say it'd be the best realistic goal for the season.

AK

by **Sam** Wed Oct 22, 2014 2:28 pm

Rick,

Not a bad combination to end games. However, I'm not as hyped as some people over the prospect of an Olynyk/Sully duo up front, especially when it comes to the need to protect the paint down the stretch. Depending on how he progresses, I might actually prefer Zeller along with either Olynyk or Sully—depending on whether Brad's looking for (1) ball movement and floor spacing or (2) rebounding. And, at this juncture, I'd opt for a professional assassin (namely Thornton) rather than Turner at shooting guard.

Sam

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