can this celtic team be a poor mans Memphis Grizzlies?

since the season is about to start and we all have our heads on straight about what we expect of this team. I decided to say...."what playoff team does this current roster compare too?"

here is a green goggle comparison of the 50 win Memphis team from last year to this current Celtic roster.

all stats are last year and based on 36 min per game

Player-------2pt %--3pt%--FT%--REB—Ast—Stl—Blk—TO—PF---Pts
M. Gasol--- 47.7-- 18.2--76.8---7.7---3.9—1.1—1.4—2.0—2.7--15.7
K. Olynyk—50.0--35.1—81.1—9.4—2.8—0.9—0.7—2.7—5.8—15.6

K. Koufos—49.5—0.0—64.5—11.2—1.0—0.9—1.9—1.8—4.9—13.7
T. Zeller-- --54.0—0.0—71.9----9.7---1.2—0.6—1.3—2.1—4.7—13.7

Z. Randolph—47.4—10.0—74.2---10.6—2.7—0.7—0.3—2.4—2.8—18.3
J. Sullinger----47.5---26.9---77.8—10.6---2.1---0.6—0.9---2.1—4.4—17.3

E. Davis-------53.4---0.0----52.8----9.8---1.0—0.6—1.6---1.5—4.3—13.4
B. Bass--------48.7---33.3---85.8---7.5—1.4—0.6---1.1---1.6---3.0—14.5

M. Miller-----50.5---45.9—82.1---4.4—2.7—0.5—0.1—1.6—2.0—12.2
J. Green------44.8---34.1---79.5---4.9—1.8—0.7—0.6—2.1—2.3—17.7

J. Johnson---54.8—25.3—84.4—6.3—4.2—1.6—2.1—2.5—3.8---14.5
E. Turner----44.4—32.1—81.3—6.0—3.8—1.0—0.1—2.8—2.9—16.6

T. Prince----42.6—29.0—56.7—4.3—2.2—0.7—0.4—0.8—1.2—8.4
G. Wallace—58.4—29.7—46.5—5.4—3.6—1.9—0.4—2.5—2.0—7.6

T. Allen------52.7—23.4---62.8—5.9—2.6—2.5—0.5—2.5—3.4—13.9
A. Bradley---45.1—39.5—80.4—4.4—1.6—1.2—0.2—1.9—2.8—17.3

C. Lee----------54.0—34.5—90.0—3.4—2.0—1.1—0.5—1.2—2.2—13.2
M. Thornton—44.3—34.5—80.4—4.1—1.6—1.2—0.2—1.4—2.3—14.5

M Conley---48.4—36.1—81.5—3.1—6.5—1.6—0.2—2.2—2.1—18.5
R. Rondo---44.2—28.9—62.7—5.9—10.6—1.4—0.1—3.6—2.3—12.6

N. Calathes—49.2—31.1—61.1—4.2—6.4—2.0—0.2—3.1—3.6—10.6
M .Smart-----?????


Other players:
Mem- J. Leuer. Q. Pondexter, J. Franklin
Bos- V. Faverani, P. Pressey, D. Powell



know I know that Kelly isn't Gasol on defense and that's a biggy.

but Bass I better than Davis and Green is better than Prince or Miller.

I think Bradley is better overall than Allen now as well.

IF Rondo can get back to full strength, can't he be as good as Conley?

so why aren't we all excited about this team being this years Phoenix surprise team?

The important dimension for evaluating or comparing teams is not individual players' stats but how well they complement one another in a cohesive unit.  I wouldn't be shocked if one could find teams whose players totaled stats better than those of the Spurs last year.  But the Spurs were a best team in the long run.

Sam

I agree Sam.

however I started by thinking not about stats, but about team makeups. And Memphis stood out to me as a similar team as the current Celtics.

lets take it position by position instead, no stats:

C- Gasol / Kelly O.- Both high post offensive players, though Gasol is MUCH better on the defensive end (though not a big Shot blocker).

PF- Randolph/Sullinger- Very similar style , below the rim types. Randolph is considered a much better scorer. But when compared ber 35min there isn't much difference. Can Sully take it close to Randolphs level?

SF- Prince/Green- This is the first position the Celtics take in the matchup.

SG- Allen/ Bradley- Again similar players in that they gained their rep on Defense. But Bradley has surpassed the older Allen , because of his much improved shooting skills.

PG- Conley/Rondo- While Conley is a better shooter, do any Celtic fans think that a healthy Rondo isn't his match? If not why all the love for Rondo.

so our starters are very similar to the 50 win Memphis team from last year.

the Bench is where this years Celtics may shine:

C- Koufos/Zeller- both 7 footers and both look like career backups. comparing stats form above we can see how close they are.

PF- Davis/Bass- here we have 2 very different type players. Davis can block shots and has the length. But Bass is much more polished on the offensive end as well as being a solid defensive option.

SF- Johnson/Wallace- Again different players here as Johnson has better offensive game, while Wallace has advantage on defense.

F/G- Lee/Turner- I put these two together because they are the most similar players. both can handle the ball and both can shoot (Lee gets a better grade). Lee is a better defensive player also.

SG- Miller/Thornton- here we again have similar players , used in the same way. which one is better?

PG- Calathes/Smart- with Smart being the #6 pick this year, we all hope he is a better player than Calathes I think.


so again.......what did Memphis have last year to win 50games in the west, that the Celtics don't have this year?

better interior defense I agree.

I would argue we have better depth and more athletic players.

so could 40 wins be possible?

45?

kdp59 wrote:since the season is about to start and we all  have our heads on straight about what we expect of this team. I decided to say...."what playoff team does this current roster compare too?"

here is a green goggle comparison of the 50 win Memphis team from last year to this current Celtic roster.

all stats are last year and based on 36 min per game

Player-------2pt %--3pt%--FT%--REB—Ast—Stl—Blk—TO—PF---Pts
M. Gasol--- 47.7-- 18.2--76.8---7.7---3.9—1.1—1.4—2.0—2.7--15.7
K. Olynyk—50.0--35.1—81.1—9.4—2.8—0.9—0.7—2.7—5.8—15.6

K. Koufos—49.5—0.0—64.5—11.2—1.0—0.9—1.9—1.8—4.9—13.7
T. Zeller-- --54.0—0.0—71.9----9.7---1.2—0.6—1.3—2.1—4.7—13.7

Z. Randolph—47.4—10.0—74.2---10.6—2.7—0.7—0.3—2.4—2.8—18.3
J. Sullinger----47.5---26.9---77.8—10.6---2.1---0.6—0.9---2.1—4.4—17.3

E. Davis-------53.4---0.0----52.8----9.8---1.0—0.6—1.6---1.5—4.3—13.4
B. Bass--------48.7---33.3---85.8---7.5—1.4—0.6---1.1---1.6---3.0—14.5

M. Miller-----50.5---45.9—82.1---4.4—2.7—0.5—0.1—1.6—2.0—12.2
J. Green------44.8---34.1---79.5---4.9—1.8—0.7—0.6—2.1—2.3—17.7

J. Johnson---54.8—25.3—84.4—6.3—4.2—1.6—2.1—2.5—3.8---14.5
E. Turner----44.4—32.1—81.3—6.0—3.8—1.0—0.1—2.8—2.9—16.6

T. Prince----42.6—29.0—56.7—4.3—2.2—0.7—0.4—0.8—1.2—8.4
G. Wallace—58.4—29.7—46.5—5.4—3.6—1.9—0.4—2.5—2.0—7.6

T. Allen------52.7—23.4---62.8—5.9—2.6—2.5—0.5—2.5—3.4—13.9
A. Bradley---45.1—39.5—80.4—4.4—1.6—1.2—0.2—1.9—2.8—17.3

C. Lee----------54.0—34.5—90.0—3.4—2.0—1.1—0.5—1.2—2.2—13.2
M. Thornton—44.3—34.5—80.4—4.1—1.6—1.2—0.2—1.4—2.3—14.5

M Conley---48.4—36.1—81.5—3.1—6.5—1.6—0.2—2.2—2.1—18.5
R. Rondo---44.2—28.9—62.7—5.9—10.6—1.4—0.1—3.6—2.3—12.6

N. Calathes—49.2—31.1—61.1—4.2—6.4—2.0—0.2—3.1—3.6—10.6
M .Smart-----?????


Other players:
Mem- J. Leuer. Q. Pondexter, J. Franklin
Bos- V. Faverani, P. Pressey, D. Powell



know I know that Kelly  isn't Gasol on defense and that's a biggy.

but Bass I better than Davis and Green is better than Prince or Miller.

I think Bradley is better overall than Allen now as well.

IF Rondo can get back to full strength, can't he be as good as  Conley?

so why aren't we all excited about this team being this years Phoenix surprise team?

kdp,

A very interesting position-by-position analysis of the two teams.  I don't watch any Griz basketball, so I can't speak to that but I do know that it's not just the tools in the toolkit that matter, it's how you use them.  Brad Stevens wants the Celtics to play uptempo basketball.  Personally, I love that idea.  Do the Griz play uptempo?  If they don't, then there's a major difference between the teams and that's the coaching strategy.  

Gasol vs Kelly - Kelly is the better runner.
Koufos vs Zeller - slight edge to Zeller
Randolph vs Sully - with Sully's improved conditioning and youth, edge to Sully.  Throw in his new 3pter he can hit as a trailer and the gap widens.

Ed Davis is now a Laker, not a Griz.
Stokes vs Bass - ???  I don't know Jarnell Stokes but Bass isn't a runner, really.

If the M. Miller you are referring to is Mike Miller, Mike Miller is now a Cleveland Cavalier.

Prince vs Green - Green

Jon Leuer vs Vitor - Leuer
Tony Allen vs Bradley - both run, Tony is the better finisher.  Maybe much better.
Conley vs Rondo - both run, Conley more consistently, and this is a key position for running
Lee vs Smart - edge to Smart for his ability to ball handle on the break
Udrih vs Pressey - experience to Udrih, speed to Pressey.  Overall, in an uptempo game, edge to Pressey
Calathes vs Turner - edge to Turner IF he will run without the ball as well as with it.
Poindexter vs Thornton - edge to Thornton on the trailer and/or pull up 3 off the break.


IF we run, like Stevens wants us to do, we can be better than the Griz.  If we do not, then throw out everything I said above because those player comparisons were looking strictly at how well they'd fit into an uptempo, running game.

Last year, Memphis was 24th in fast break points with 10.6ppg.  Boston was 20th with 12.1ppg and Brad didn't stress uptempo as much last year as he is this one.  In 6 pre-season games we were credited with 58 fast break points.  That's less than 10/game and not good.  However, there is fast break and there is uptempo, which is still getting into you offense early but isn't 4 seconds or less.



bob



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thanks Bob.

I was comparing LAST years Memphis team on purpose because we all know what they achieved last season. 50 wins in the west.

I do see more similarities than not with this years Celtics.

though the interior defense is not as good as Memphis last year and that knocks us down a few games.

maybe all those quotes about the players feeling this team can be better than given credit for, have some merit.

it IS the time of year to have on those green goggles after all.

Bobh,
Very interesting perspective for comparing these two teams.
I'm not sure about some of your pairings. I thought that Smart will be backup #1, not PP. I'd put Udrih vs Smart.
Also, I thought their SFs are Prince and Carter.
Also, I disagree about Conley vs Rondo. RR is one of a very few floor generals. I don't think Conley is "general" - maybe colonel or major. Regardless of the system RR knows what's going on and what will be going on similar to grand master in chess. If he buys into Stevens' system I'd put him above Conley.
Also, Lee is SG so I'd put him against Turner, not Smart.

AK

Kdp,

Sorry, but position by position is the same to me as stats.  Either way, one is comparing individuals.

Do the two teams have the same offensive system and, if so, which team does it better?  How about defensive system?  Which team spaces the floor better?  Which team goes to the hoop better?  Which team is better in transition?  Which team is a better rebounding team.  To what extent are each team's players on the same wave length in terms of acting instinctively, complementing one another and enabling one another?

In other words, over the course of a typical game (not just the portion of the game when two individuals—one from each team—happen to be in the game), what is the personality of each team, the identity, the modus operandi, smoothness of execution, the resilience, the intensity, the ball sharing propensity, the extent to which the player complement one another, the will to win, the performance in the clutch, etc. etc. etc.? 

The whole is sometimes far removed (either positively or negatively) to the sum of the parts.  So, comparing two "wholes" based on the sum of their respective parts (by player or by position) is not, in my book, all that relevant.  But that doesn't mean it isn't interesting.

Sam

sinus007 wrote:Bobh,
Very interesting perspective for comparing these two teams.
I'm not sure about some of your pairings. I thought that Smart will be backup #1, not PP. I'd put Udrih vs Smart.
Also, I thought their SFs are Prince and Carter.
Also, I disagree about Conley vs Rondo. RR is one of a very few floor generals. I don't think Conley is "general" - maybe colonel or major. Regardless of the system RR knows what's going on and what will be going on similar to grand master in chess. If he buys into Stevens' system I'd put him above Conley.
Also, Lee is SG so I'd put him against Turner, not Smart.

AK

sinus,

I matched Lee against Smart because of their comparable size, their focus on defense and because I'm not convinced that Marcus Smart is ready to be a point guard yet.  He's projected to start ahead of Pressey, if Rondo's not ready, but Kelly's going to start ahead of Zeller and I don't agree with that either since I think Zeller's a natural for that position in the NBA and Kelly's not.  Same with Smart and Phil.

If you want to put Lee against Turner, then I'd pick Lee.  Lee runs.  Turner looks like he runs only when he has the ball and I don't want my SG/SF/"oh just give me the ball and let me redeem myself" running the fast break, that's the point guard's job.  The SG/SF's job is to fill the lanes and finish strong.

Udrih vs Smart?  Udrih is very quick.  Not anywhere near as big or strong, of course, but he'll get the ball down court quickly and that is a requirement for a fast break that isn't happening via passing, but rather with dribbling.  Udrih vs Smart on the finish?  Smart, with the domination of a wrecking ball.

Almost 38-year old Vince Carter vs a one-legged, one-eyed chicken?  The chicken, in a run (or hop) away.  And this might be our real advantage.  Vince Carter playing any significant minutes against us will get run into the ground.  Any one of our guards or wings can have him in their rear mirror inside of 4 steps.  Does he still have game in the half court?  Maybe, although once you get up into that age range your skills can deteriorate as quickly as falling off a table, but all this was premised upon comparing the two teams in one specific style of play, uptempo, anyway. In an uptempo game Vince Carter is a liability.



bob



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