The Homer Index

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/10/28/7083319/nba-predictions-2014-15-record-utah-jazz




This chart proves that all NBA fan bases are homers
By Drew Garrison  @DrewGarrisonSBN on Oct 28 2014, 12:54p 11

We polled NBA fans asking them to project their favorite team's record this season. The results show everyone's hoping for the best.




 

Last week, we asked you to fill out a very simple survey: How many wins will your favorite NBA team have this season? Over 4,200 serious answered were registered.

The results? Y'all are a bunch of homers. Delightful, optimistic homers.

We averaged everyone's answers and compared them to the first set of Vegas odds released by the Westgate Superbook. Then, we put together what we'll call the "Homer Index," which measures the differential between the average survey answer and Vegas' odds.

Congratulations, Utah Jazz. Your fan base takes the crown here, projecting an average of 9.5 wins more than Westgate did. The Phoenix Suns following close behind with 8.5 more projected wins. Toronto Raptors, New York Knicks and Bulls fans were all closest to the Westgate marks.

As for Washington Wizards and Oklahoma City Thunder fans? They're the two rare fan bases that are more pessimistic. Both projecting fewer average wins than Westgate. But there's an explanation for that: those odds were released before Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal were injured.

We also have the full comparison between our survey and Vegas charted out. The Western Conference was a tie between the Los Angeles Clippers and San Antonio Spurs for best record, while the Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Lakers are projected as the two worst teams out West.





The Eastern Conference was far more one-sided than the West. The Cleveland Cavaliers led all teams (both conferences) with a projected 62 wins, followed by the Chicago Bulls. The Philadelphia 76ers are at the bottom by a wide margin, 10 wins away from the second-lowest projected team in the conference, the Milwaukee Bucks:





Meanwhile, if you count the average number of wins our survey responders sent, you get a combined record of ... 1376-1084. That's 146 wins more than what's actually possible.

What have we learned? Don't let teams tell you there's too much negativity among fans this time of year. October is a time for optimism.




bob
MY NOTE:  Go Celtics!



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