Danny Ainge’s deals have Celtics on threshold of a busy summer

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/01/18/danny-ainge-deals-have-celtics-threshold-busy-summer/kiy859J5i8ZIVLWBZm48cK/story.html


Danny Ainge’s deals have Celtics on threshold of a busy summer


There is a method to the flurry of moves executed by Danny Ainge over the past three weeks. While veteran players are being shuttled out of town at an alarming rate, netting draft picks and trade exceptions in return, the Celtics president of basketball operations has plans to upgrade the roster with premium talent.

The question is, how?

The Celtics are likely to have six first-round picks over the next three drafts, including two this June. Ainge could use those picks to draft young talent or procure a veteran in a trade.

The Celtics also have plenty of salary cap space to sign a standout free agent for the first time since the 1990s, and that will allow Ainge to bid on restricted free agents. The Celtics would have enough cap space to price many teams out of the market for desirable players.

The restricted free agent market could be fruitful for the Celtics, who haven’t attracted a premium free agent in more than 20 years. The perception of the city as a negative free agent destination has changed and there will be plenty of players willing to accept the Celtics’ money.

Here are five potential targets for the Celtics and their odds of landing in Boston:

Jimmy Butler, Chicago — The Bulls may have made a mistake by not locking down Butler to a long-term contract when they had the opportunity, and he will become a restricted free agent this summer. The Celtics have the money to make a maximum contract offer to Butler, forcing the Bulls to match if they plan on keeping him. Butler, 25, is entering his prime years. Chicago has promised to sign him long term but the Celtics can make this chase interesting. He is the big, physical shooting guard the Celtics crave and is a sparkling on-ball defender.

Chances of landing in Boston: 20 percent.

Kevin Love, Cavaliers — The Celtics have made no secret of their admiration for Love, who enjoyed his brief vacation in Boston last summer. While it appeared a certainty Love would remain in Cleveland on a long-term contract, he has an opt-out this summer and isn’t exactly blending well in the Cavaliers’ offense. Although he has said he wants to remain in Cleveland, the Celtics could make it interesting by making a maximum offer the moment he opts out of his contract and begins negotiating an extension with the Cavaliers. Love’s father played in the NBA, he is a league traditionalist, and the thought of being the next great Celtic may appeal to him.

Chances of landing in Boston: 30 percent.

Kawhi Leonard, Spurs — San Antonio is going to have to fork over the money to keep Leonard, the 2014 NBA Finals MVP who has endured an injury-plagued season. What’s scary about Leonard is he won’t be 24 until this summer and he may be the league’s most imposing physical specimen next to LeBron James. The Celtics are almost obliged to gauge Leonard’s interest and challenge the Spurs to offer a maximum contract to one of the league’s emerging players. If the Celtics could somehow wrest Leonard out of San Antonio, it could be the franchise-altering move Ainge has sought — just as impactful as acquiring Kevin Garnett in 2007.

Chances of landing in Boston: 25 percent.

Draymond Green, Warriors — The former second-round pick in 2012 will be a restricted free agent this summer. The Celtics won’t have to make a maximum offer to Green, but rather a competitive one. It could mean the addition of a tough-minded small forward who rebounds. The Warriors just paid big for Klay Thompson and have to decide whether to invest another long-term deal on Harrison Barnes. They may have no choice but to allow Green to sign elsewhere. It’s worth a shot. He is a younger version of BrandonBass with 3-point range.

Chances of landing in Boston: 40 percent.

DeAndre Jordan, Clippers — Should the Celtics pursue a player with such limited offensive skills? They were close to acquiring Jordan from Los Angeles a few years ago for Garnett, and he was open to playing in Boston. Now Jordan will be an unrestricted free agent looking for a raise from the $11.4 million he earned in the final year of his contract. Jordan is one of the league’s worst free throw shooters but he balances that with his rebounding, rim protection, and ability to finish around the basket. It would take a hefty investment but if the Celtics are looking for their first true center since trading Kendrick Perkins, then Jordan could be in play.

Chances of landing in Boston: 35 percent.

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Interesting piece. There are good players up and down the list, but none of them are game-changers alone. It would take a combination of several big signings to make a splash, IMO.

-Kevin Love to the C's seems a bit unlikely. He strikes me as the type that wants to play for a contender now.

-The Celtics could have drafted DeAndre Jordan before. It would be a good pickup to have an athletic center and slide Zeller to the backup role.

-Jimmy Butler is an intriguing prospect at SG. But would picking him up mean a lack of confidence in Marcus Smart? I think the Celtics will have to find a PG to go along with him.

-Same with Butler, Kawhi Leonard is an interesting addition. He's one of the best SFs in the game right now. But would he want to play for Boston after being with a team like the Spurs?

-Draymond Green is a solid player but picking him up wouldn't be that impressive. he's probably the least attractive of these 5 potential options.



KJ

The percentages listed for the various players are laughable. Leonard, Green, and Jordan are far more likely to stay where they are. Pop has called Leonard the future of the franchise. Kerr has called Green his favorite player. Jordan has a coach he loves and who trusts him at the end of games instead of benching him, and he knows what a great situation he has with Chris Paul and Blake Griffin.

While it's not a certainty that these players will stay with their current teams, the fact that they are restricted free agents automatically makes that more likely since their current team can match any offer. I'd put the numbers well over 50 percent that they stay with their current team, but even if you say it's 50-50, to say the lion's share of that remaining 50 percent chance goes to any one team is an adventure in optimism.

The other part I don't like about all this is feeding the free agent fantasy, that the team will turn around instantly by landing elite or second tier free agents. Depending on free agents for the rebuild is the worst possible strategy because you're toast if they don't sign. That's not what all those draft picks are good for.

KJ, if you saw Draymond Green more, I'd bet you'd change your opinion. His all-around skills and toughness are key to the Warriors elevating their game this season. No, he doesn't score 20 points per game or get the highlights on SportsCenter, but he does things that lead to wins. He can be on my team any time.

Outside how would you compare Draymond Green to Bass? They are both about 6'8", does Green have more intangibles than Bass?

Jordan is an UFA next year.

here is a link to all of them, ranked in someone's order.

http://hoopshype.com/free_agency_2015.htm


L.Aldridge
M. Gasol
D. Jordan
G. Monroe
O. Asik
T. Chandler
Robin Lopez

are ALL starting NBA big men who are unrestricted free agents next year .

IF Ainge wants a vet big man, he can go sign one of the above.

I don't disagree that he can also go after a RFA as well.

one player they didn't list in the article is Reggie Jackson-Okc.

he's a RFA and seems to be on his way out of town, like they did with Harden .

a Jackson and Smart backcourt might be nice.

Outside,

I've always felt that you and I had similar opinions of free agency.

I've never seen the sense of placing much hope in getting restricted free agents. (And why does this writer focus mainly on restricted free agents as if they were a special breed?) If they're good enough for the Celtics to want them, why wouldn't their teams match the offer and keep them? Yeah, yeah, I know that teams don't always match; but buyer beware if they don't.

Do the best you can at the annual skeet match known as the draft, and take a stab at someone like Jordan in unrestricted free agency; but plan to get most of your building blocks through trades—presumably sweetened with some of those protected draft picks everyone's so in love with.

Sam

cowens/oldschool wrote:Outside how would you compare Draymond Green to Bass? They are both about 6'8", does Green have more intangibles than Bass?

Cow,

Bass is a power forward/center -- mostly power forward, obviously, but can fill in as a center on occasion. He's hardworking, active, has a nice mid-range game, and can bang a bit inside.

Green is smaller and is more of a small forward/power forward size-wise. He's hardworking and active also, but he's got a little bit of "psycho" to his game. Not too much, like Lance Stephenson, but it reminds me of how football players can get so amped up. As hard as Bass works, I'd say Green works even harder. I consider him undersized at the power forward spot, but in the playoff series against the Clippers, with Bogut out and Lee guarding Jordan, he was able to hold up really well against Griffin, outrebounding him 8.3 to 6.1.

The thing that separates Green is his versatility on both ends of the floor. On defense, the Warriors are set up so that they have a bunch of like-sized guys so that they can switch on screens and not get a mismatch, and Green is the epitome of that. He can guard almost anyone, any size, any position. Offensively, he's not a great scorer, but he does a little of everything -- scoring inside, outside, handling the ball, running the break, setting screens, whatever.

So far this season, here are his averages:

11.6 points
7.9 rebounds
3.7 assists
1.6 steals
1.5 blocks
1.4 threes

His shooting percentages aren't great, but he does well enough that he spaces the floor. The thing is, although he is productive when you look at his stats, he's also valuable when it comes to intangibles. He does a lot of things that don't end up in the box score.

From the perspective of a Warriors fan, this is a guy they have to keep. You can't have him.

Outside wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:Outside how would you compare Draymond Green to Bass? They are both about 6'8", does Green have more intangibles than Bass?

Cow,

Bass is a power forward/center -- mostly power forward, obviously, but can fill in as a center on occasion. He's hardworking, active, has a nice mid-range game, and can bang a bit inside.

Green is smaller and is more of a small forward/power forward size-wise. He's hardworking and active also, but he's got a little bit of "psycho" to his game. Not too much, like Lance Stephenson, but it reminds me of how football players can get so amped up. As hard as Bass works, I'd say Green works even harder. I consider him undersized at the power forward spot, but in the playoff series against the Clippers, with Bogut out and Lee guarding Jordan, he was able to hold up really well against Griffin, outrebounding him 8.3 to 6.1.

The thing that separates Green is his versatility on both ends of the floor. On defense, the Warriors are set up so that they have a bunch of like-sized guys so that they can switch on screens and not get a mismatch, and Green is the epitome of that. He can guard almost anyone, any size, any position. Offensively, he's not a great scorer, but he does a little of everything -- scoring inside, outside, handling the ball, running the break, setting screens, whatever.

So far this season, here are his averages:

11.6 points
7.9 rebounds
3.7 assists
1.6 steals
1.5 blocks
1.4 threes

His shooting percentages aren't great, but he does well enough that he spaces the floor. The thing is, although he is productive when you look at his stats, he's also valuable when it comes to intangibles. He does a lot of things that don't end up in the box score.

From the perspective of a Warriors fan, this is a guy they have to keep. You can't have him.

Cowens,

As someone who has watched Draymond Green grow and flourish over the past few years at GSW I concur 100% with Outside's entire post. My only change would be to the last sentence. I'd have said "From the perspective of a Warriors fan, this is a guy they have to keep but, from the perspective of a Celtics fan first and a Warrior fan second, I want him."


bob



.

Cow,

Just to follow up on Draymond Green, you'll have a chance to see him when Boston plays at Golden State this Sunday. Not that one game is the ultimate barometer, but the one thing I can guarantee is that Green will bring the effort and demonstrate the intangibles you asked about.

sam wrote: I've never seen the sense of placing much hope in getting restricted free agents.  (And why does this writer focus mainly on restricted free agents as if they were a special breed?)  If they're good enough for the Celtics to want them, why wouldn't their teams match the offer and keep them?  Yeah, yeah, I know that teams don't always match; but buyer beware if they don't.

Sam

I think the writer's point was that DA has positioned the team well to be competitive on the RFA market. Because we have tons of cap space, we can make an offer above what the player's current team may be able to pay given cap/tax concerns. Yes, they can match, in theory, but in practice, will they if it puts them over the tax line or impedes their ability to sign other guys they also need to sign? A lot of these guys may resign with their existing teams, but some might not, and if the article included the cap considerations for each team it might be easier to see if one or more of these guys becomes a more appealing target. At least it's nice to have this option in the rebuild toolbox, and we're not just forced to go out and make lowball offers under the MLE for once.

-V

On RFAs, we can offer the right player a poison pill contract, like Lin and Asik got from the Rockets. Their salaries were structured 5M, 5M and 15M in the three years. Our cap hit would be the average of those, 8.33M. I believe that the team that we sign the RFA away from cannot take the average for their cap hit, so that works in our advantage. Is that fair for the player's original team, no. But that is how I believe it works.

The salary numbers that I used for Lin and Asik may now be bigger now for the player that we target, but the concept is the same, you can make a big leap in salary for the third year.

I can see Danny doing this if the right player comes up. I also can see him waiting a year and trying this in the summer of 2016.

gyso

Like BarronV wrote

" At least it's nice to have this option in the rebuild toolbox, and we're not just forced to go out and make lowball offers under the MLE for once."

Sure doesn't hurt to have the cash on hand to at least be able to compete in the free agency market.

swish

It doesn't hurt to have free agency as an option, but I can't get behind a strategy of intentionally overpaying a restricted free agent as a poison pill just because you have cap space now. The day will come when cap space is an issue and you can't sign someone because you overpaid that RFA.

Funniest thing I've read in weeks!

And they say there are no great comedy writers left at The Globe.