Kelly Olynyk: The Consummate Professional

by **bobheckler** Thu Jan 22, 2015 6:54 pm

Kelly Olynyk: The Consummate Professional
Posted by Nick Altschuller on Jan 22, 2015 0 comments

While his role in the NBA remains in flux, I think we can all imagine what the ideal Kelly Olynyk might look like.

He won’t be a great defender. Tanks have more lateral quickness. But the hope is that the league’s current leader in personal fouls will learn to use his length to cause trouble near the rim.

Olynyk’s shooting is his best asset, and in an ideal scenario, he’s a seven-footer that drags opposing big man away from the basket, splashes threes, and opens up lanes that Brad Stevens would love to have in his conceptual pace-and-space offense.

But Olynyk’s offense has been up and down this year. In an effort to figure it out, I broke down the current season into four chunks: Games 1-10, 11-20, 21-30 and 31-39. (Tonight’s game against the Blazers will be the Celtics 40th.) Let’s take a look at the numbers:

What do we see?

First, KO’s best shooting numbers came at the start of the season. The key component is that Olynyk started all those games. It wasn’t until game 14 when Zeller was switched in at center. (Hard to argue with that call). The interesting thing is that while Olynyk was lights out as a shooter, he was still a -6 on the floor. The assumption is that Olynyk’s D, and the team’s as a whole, left something to be desired.

Once Olynyk started coming off the bench, his percentages dipped, but he was playing about as many minutes, and his plus/minus numbers skyrocketed. In fact, during a five game stretch from December 8th through 17th, Olynyk had a plus/minus of 77. (The Celtics went 2-3 in that stretch.) What happened before the team’s next game on the 19th? Rondo was traded.

Olynyk’s role has diminished in the post-Rondo era, and his three-point percentage has plummeted over the course of the year. One reason may be, and tell me if I’m the only one seeing this, but Olynyk seems to have lost his shooting base. He’s doing a lot of this, instead of setting himself and going straight up and down.

This could be because he’s looking to drive more. Olynyk often catches the ball at the top of the arc, pump fakes, and takes it into the paint. Sometimes this results in a nifty underhand scoop for a hoop. Often this move ends up with KO sprawled on the floor. KO is shooting 53.7% on drives this season (per NBA.com), and he makes 2.4 per game, which, for reference, is the same amount as Paul Pierce. Avery Bradley makes 1.6 drives per game. Marcus Smart averages 1.3. In my ideal offense, the Celtic guards are the ones looking to penetrate and dish. (Evan Turner, still steady at PG, averages 3.8 drives.)

A Kelly Olynyk stationed out beyond the arc is a sniper in a strategic location. An Olynyk that looks to shoot—or it least takes a passing glance at the basket before swinging the ball, my god, Kelly!—keeps a defense on its toes. An Olynyk trying to take it to the rack doesn’t seem like the best use of his skill set.

We’ll see how Stevens uses Olynyk as the season progresses and pieces keep moving. It’s unclear what KO’s role will be going forward, but it’s obvious we’re just in the early stages of finding out the answer.

bob

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