Forsberg's 2014-15 Celtics Mid-Season Report Card

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2014-15 Celtics midseason report card

By Chris Forsberg | January 24, 2015 6:00:45 PM PST


The Boston Celtics played Game 41 with Friday's 100-99 triumph over the Denver Nuggets. The team officially sits at the midway point of the 2014-15 regular season, which means it's the time of the year where we're supposed to grab our red pens and offer grades for the team's performance to this point.

A couple of the usual notes before diving into these progress reports. Grades are crafted based on expectations. A player may not be having the most statistically dominant season, but if they are exceeding expectations we had for them entering the year, then the grade will reflect it.

And we'll note here that grading a rebuilding team is a less-than-ideal process. Expectations are typically low and, particularly on a superstar-less roster, it's hard to be too harsh given that none of the players below are expected to carry a team (even one that's nine games under .500 at the turn).

Inevitably, there will be those upset by the sheer amount of B and C grades. Some will wonder, "How can a team be so bad with so many players with passing grades?" Well, it's simple: In the NBA you need some of your key players to be performing at an A-level in order to be truly competitive, especially those deemed your supertars. Boston has a bunch of young players that are trying to develop as individuals and as a team. We simply can't grade them harsher because the team is not successful.

And now, midway thoughts on your 2014-15 Celtics (players sort by playing time):


PLAYERS



Avery Bradley



Bradley closed out the first half with a bang, his late-game jumpers lifting Boston past Denver on Friday night. His first half as a whole? Pretty much in line with last season. Fair or not, after inking a four-year, $32-million extension, expectations went up for Bradley. His 3-point shooting is down a bit and his scoring is off a touch (though it'll perk up with Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green no longer on the roster). Bradley's defense is better than a year ago, but still not to his lofty previous standards. The good news for Bradley: There's an opportunity to really assert himself in the second half of the year and Boston needs more from their starting 2 guard.


Jared Sullinger



Like Bradley, Sullinger's stat line is not remarkably different from last season. Despite a little early season slump, Sullinger has been one of the team's best overall players. Sullinger's shooting percentages are up (with his 2-point percentage back near 50 percent, though his 3-point shooting is still hot and cold at times) while his offensive rebound rate is down a bit (a natural dip from spending more time on perimeter). Maybe the biggest nitpick from this end: Sullinger needs to be a 30+ minute per game guy (he's at 28.7 right now) and that's on him to force coach Brad Stevens to keep him on the court with quality play.


Evan Turner



Turner had virtually no expectations after how last season ended with Indiana. He's helped fill the point guard role in Rondo's absence and quietly put up decent numbers (9.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.4 assists over 25.1 minutes per game). He's shooting at practically career-best level and his defense, when he stays in front of his man, has graded out surprisingly well (the NBA's player tracking data has him holding opponents well below their season averages). Ball security needs to be his top priority, but it's hard to quibble much with what the team is getting for their money.


Kelly Olynyk



Olynyk's ankle injury is an unfortunate speed bump in his development. The second-year big man is shooting better than 50 percent this season and making encouraging strides. His defense remains a work in progress, but he's still one of the few Boston regulars with a positive differential in net rating. Olynyk needs to drive down the fouls and just keep improving on the court, the latter of which is sidetracked by the ankle injury.


Marcus Smart



The big concern with Smart, the No. 6 pick in June's draft, was his offense at the NBA level. After a slow start, he's now shooting 36.4 percent beyond the 3-point arc. His own ankle injury set him back a bit early in the year, but Smart has shown an ability to be a game-changer with his defense. The next challenge is learning how to control the game as a point guard, especially in the pick-and-roll, both as a distributor and as someone who can create for himself going at the basket. Smart's been a reluctant driver at times, but you see the confidence growing each game. Even if the Celtics struggle to win in the second half, viewers will tune in to see Smart's progress.


Tyler Zeller



Zeller couldn't keep up his insane early season field goal percentage and he's recently shuffled back to a reserve role, but he's still been a remarkably solid addition and a supremely efficient scorer (9.2 points on 56.9 percent shooting over 19.7 minutes per game). Zeller has been Boston's best roller at the basket, even if the departure of Rondo took away some of his easier buckets. Zeller is right behind Sullinger in terms of rebound rates. While he's still learning how to be a consistent defender, the league's player tracking data reflects well on Zeller, including holding opponents to 10.4 percent below their season averages on attempts inside of 6 feet.


Brandon Bass



We'll miss Bass when he's gone -- whether that's at the trade deadline or after the season. All Bass does is show up and do his job. He complained one time in late December about his diminished role, likely because he was frustrated and felt like he deserved better. He's been rewarded recently by being elevated back to the starting lineup. Call him Extra-Pass Bass because each of the past two games he's had a career-high 5 assists. He deserves to play for a contender and Boston will miss his work ethic when he moves on.


Jae Crowder



We thought it might be tough for Crowder to muscle into an immediate rotation role when he arrived from Dallas. The Jeff Green trade quickly elevated him to a starter soon, but even before that he had asserted himself with his hustle and basketball IQ. Despite a couple quiet games recently, Crowder has displayed a promising future. If his 3-point shot starts falling he can stop pressing a bit on the offensive end and let his talents take over. Defensively, he's got the size and physicality to be a pest; he simply needs to make sure he's in the right spots in Boston's system.


Marcus Thornton



We're probably being a bit tough on Thornton, who not only got set back by a calf injury earlier this year, but has played sparingly (15.6 minutes per game). He's shooting the ball well, including 40.5 percent from beyond the 3-point arc. And, really, that's all he's being asked to do. Thornton simply hasn't gotten the sort of minutes that would make his numbers more glossy. As an expiring deal, the Celtics will have motivation to move him if a contender wanted his shooting stroke on their bench for the playoffs.


Phil Pressey



Pressey is a perfect 14th or 15th man. He's low priced, has a reliable skill set that allows a coach to lean on him in times of need, and doesn't rock the boat otherwise. Pressey's jump shot has improved and he's capable of providing a spark off the bench, particularly by picking up the pace on offense or playing some pressure defense. Developing his shot is key to expanding his role, but Pressey's ability to stay on the roster despite so much change speaks to his talents.


Gerald Wallace



There are those that want Wallace to get an F for his bloated contract, but it's hard to penalize him too much for that. His contract isn't hurting the Celtics this season as they are well below the tax line. Wallace has accepted a reduced role, embraced being a veteran leader that logs DNPs most nights, and still pops off the bench and will go guard Anthony Davis if Stevens asks. Better yet, "Old Head G" -- as Crowder playfully called him last week -- is willing to jump into a post-practice shooting drill with a bunch of youngsters.


James Young



With only 66 minutes of NBA action through 10 appearances, it's impossible to fairly grade Young. From those small glimpses, and his stints in the D-League, it's clear he can score the ball, especially from the perimeter. There's a lot of work ahead for him, both in diversifying the way he scores, but also learning how to defend at the NBA level. The key for Young is embracing that learning process and showing a willingness to develop his game.



COACHING/FRONT OFFICE


Brad Stevens



Give him credit for remaining upbeat amid another rebuilding season, particularly one in which the Celtics have made nine trades and overhauled both ends of their roster. Amid the chaos of four trades in five league business days earlier this month, Stevens playfully joked about having the Celtics email him a roster every morning. He's done about all he can with the ingredients that he's had, all while evolving as a coach each day. His patience deserves to be rewarded down the road.


Danny Ainge



Trader Danny has reaffirmed his nickname this season, making a relentless series of deals since the start of the season with a goal of (1) Stockpiling future assets and (2) Creating future flexibility that can help Boston accelerate the rebuild. His biggest challenge looms: Turning draft picks and cap space into actual talent that can help Boston return to contender status. How Ainge grades out in that pursuit is key, but he gets glossy marks for the roster teardown and having the guts to pull the trigger on a deal like Rondo's departure instead of playing it safer.



bob
MY NOTE:  What Forsberg is saying is, we have good players but no great or even really good ones and that's why our record sucks.  Sounds about right.  And he's right, I am going to miss "Steady Eddie" Brandon Bass.


.

If the average grade is a B, then they should be in playoff position in the East. I think the grades are overly generous.

Outside wrote:If the average grade is a B, then they should be in playoff position in the East. I think the grades are overly generous.

Outside,

We are only 2 games out of the #8 spot, #11, as pathetic as that sounds. So we are, almost, in playoff position. Brooklyn is on the cusp of blowing up their team. That will take them down, if Billy King pulls the trigger. Detroit is only 1/2 game ahead of us and they play Toronto tonight and Cleveland after that.


bob


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Okay, let me modify my previous statement -- if the average grade is a B, then they should be at .500.

It's not that I think they're a bunch of bums. I'm generally more optimistic than many people on the forum. But I am realistic.

Forsberg tries to address the issue:

Grades are crafted based on expectations. A player may not be having the most statistically dominant season, but if they are exceeding expectations we had for them entering the year, then the grade will reflect it.

And we'll note here that grading a rebuilding team is a less-than-ideal process. Expectations are typically low and, particularly on a superstar-less roster, it's hard to be too harsh given that none of the players below are expected to carry a team (even one that's nine games under .500 at the turn).

Inevitably, there will be those upset by the sheer amount of B and C grades. Some will wonder, "How can a team be so bad with so many players with passing grades?" Well, it's simple: In the NBA you need some of your key players to be performing at an A-level in order to be truly competitive, especially those deemed your supertars. Boston has a bunch of young players that are trying to develop as individuals and as a team. We simply can't grade them harsher because the team is not successful.

So he sets it up as grading them based on expectations for them as less talented players. In essence, he sets the bar lower because they aren't as good. Okay, fine, but that is of such minimal value. I'd rather see the grades reflect the fact that they haven't played well, not just that he thought a player would be lousy and surpassed his expectations by being mediocre.

this is a great thread for putting in each of our own player grades!

I think the writer got 'em mostly right, though I don't see any grading system in place to know for sure.

is a C grade a .500 team?

if so drop each player one grade then.

we're on target for about 30 wins this year (right about what MOST fans expected WITH Rondo and Green here).

I think we'll end up (barring major injuries) even higher

33-35 wins.

sounds like a successful second year of the rebuild to me.

Pretty generous grades for a 15 - 26 team.

His soft grading system seems to be similar to some schools that set the bar low and reward sub-par performance.  

Next he'll propose giving a trophy to everyone just for participating.

"Grades are crafted based on expectations....And we'll note here that grading a rebuilding team is a less-than-ideal process. Expectations are typically low..."

Although the grading procedure any one may use is up for possible debate, I really like kdp's line "sounds like a successful second year of the rebuild to me."

Without even taking a second to check any of the thousand possible stats tied to the Celtics, the eye test shows that they are much better in many ways than they were last year.   And, this does not mean that they have enough talent to be a title contender yet.

But, each of the players they have has either improved from last year or at least from the beginning of this season. The ball moves so much better on offense on a very regular basis to the point that there are many, many more good shots taken this year than the absolutely maddening number of "chucks" taken last season at the end of the 24 second clock.  The defense has been less consistent than I would like, but has shown some very nice runs as well. The Cs rebound much better as a team even though they may not have any one individual, league leading rebounder as for most nights those games where they used to get out rebounded by 18-24 have been very few and far between.   And, at least since Crowder has been on the floor, there have been no games where the hustle has not been as good at every opponent.

With all of that, there still is lots of room for improvement.  Certainly, adding more physical talent is first on the list, but Ainge has money and draft picks galore.  On the court, drawing more fouls when driving to the hoop and some very sloppy give away turnovers come immediately to mind, but from where they still could be after deciding to trade Garnett and Pierce I think that the rebuild is coming along nicely

For whatever it's worth, Boston is 20th in offensive rating (104.3 points per 100 possessions) and 18th in defensive rating (106.3 points allowed per 100 possessions by the opponent).

http://bkref.com/tiny/HsiHA

Those stats are slightly better than their record (23rd in the league) but an accurate representation of their point differential, which is only -2.0, compared to -2.6 for Charlotte, -3.6 for Miami, -3.7 for Brooklyn, -8.0 for the Knicks, and a horrendous -12.5 for Philly.

I'm probably speaking out of turn by even being on this thread because I believe that rating players individually is ludicrous when they're playing an interactive sport.

But I especially have to take exception to comparing the performances of individual players with the performance of the team. This team has been subject to discontinuity since the season began with a roster of guys who didn't know one another and extending to DDD time (Danny's Discontinuity Disco). They've played poorly together more often than they've played well together.

But the cohesiveness of a team and the individual performances of individual player are not necessarily related. A player can improve individually, but the effect of that individual improvement may not make more than a tiny ripple in the team's performance as a whole; or the effect could be delayed.

Moreover, a basic fallacy in trying to correlate the performances of individual players with the performance of the team is this. The performances of individual players are being graded versus expectations. The performance of the team (as discussed on this thread) is being evaluated by results—primarily won and lost results. Apples and oranges.

Who knows? Before this season is over, the team—though having been incredibly decimated—could potentially have a better record than the dire expectations I've read on this board and elsewhere.

For a team to win just one-third of its games is, per se, not good. But does that mean Crowder has not exceeded expectations, or Smart has not improved his shooting, or Zeller is a much better pick-and-roll player than anticipated, or Bass has not developed into one of the most consistent contributors on the team (if not the league), or Sully has become a consistently effective rebounder and low post force or Turner has morphed from a question mark at the "1" position to at least an adequate floor general and clutch threat, or Bradley may now be the closest thing they have to a "go to" guy down the stretch, etc., etc., etc.?

A team does not necessarily equal the sum of its parts. It can be less than that sum (which is currently true) or more than that sum (see me in 19630; but to try to correlate the two is ill-advised.

Sam