Trade, Draw, or Draft: The Next Celtics Center

http://www.celticsblog.com/2015/1/26/7909965/trade-draft-or-draw-the-next-celtics-center





Trade, draw, or draft: the next Celtics center
By bigbrotheryeti on Jan 26 2015, 3:02p +



I have seen and heard many people, in both comment threads and articles, bemoan the state of the Celtics frontcourt, specifically at the 5. I have heard wailing and gnashing of teeth, as people gaze around the league at the myriad rim-protectors that patrol the paint for other teams and say; why doesn't he play for our team? Why don't we trade for that guy? Countless armchair-GM's have targeted many defensive-minded centers who are in the league already, or who are still playing at the college level, and have begun to scheme up ways to get that player onto the Celtics. As with all discussions centered on the future (pun kind-of intended), the best course of action we have in front of us to take a deep breath, slow down, and stop putting the shot-blocking horse before the cart.

Currently, there are a number of Centers in the NBA who could fill the role of rim-protector on the Celtics. Putting aside the year that Tyler Zeller has had, which has exceeded most reasonable expectations, we still lack a forceful deterrent in the paint. If we are assuming that our Center of the Future is not currently on our squad (and I think we can all agree he probably isn't), then there are three ways we can go out and get him. We can trade for him, sending some of our plethora of assets to a team on which this player no longer fits. We can draft him, pinning our hopes onto one of the first-round draft picks we will have in the next couple of years. Finally, we could draw him to Boston in free agency, and make a compelling pitch based on the Celtics's storied franchise, talented young coach, and positioning for the future.


The Trade Route

If we want to trade for a 5, there are a few that are definitely obtainable. Larry Sanders, with his questionable dedication, and his off-court issues, seems to be rapidly falling out of the Milwaukee Buck's rotation. He received a 10-game suspension from the league for violating their anti-drug policy, hasn't played in the last 15 games, and has only played more than 25 minutes in 6 games all season. However, he is averaging 1.4 blocks per game for the season, and 1.8 per game for his career. However, his salary is $11M per year through 2017. That is a pill that is likely too large for the rebuilding Celtics to swallow, especially with so much risk attached to it. Other centers that are likely available include Enes Kanter, who is not much of a rim protector (average of __ BPG), and Javale McGee, who's issues are similar to Sanders's, but even more egregious. John Henson would be a good bet, as he is currently averaging 1.6 BPG this season in only 15.6 minutes per game. However, none of these players are a sure thing. In fact, there are almost no players in the NBA who are a sure thing; the ones that are are certainly unavailable. Almost every player in the league is influenced more by the system the play in than most people are willing to admit. The tales of Rudy Gay's transformation when he got to Sacramento, and Dwight Howard's drop in production and effectiveness in Los Angeles are well-documented, and can easily be attributed to being poor fits. This is the fundamental danger with trading for a center; what happens if you spend those assets to acquire them (likely a not-insignificant number of assets, too) and then they don't fit well into Brad Steven's system?


The Draw Route

Many of the issues that we find with the trade route are the same with the draw route. If we manage to bring a center to Beantown in free agency, they may still not fit well with Brad Steven's system, and with the players around them. If we've learned anything from the Spurs of the past few years, the Lakers of 2012, and from the Pistons of 2004, we've learned that the most important part of a team is that all of the pieces fit together well. An incoming free agent would need to fit perfectly with the system and their teammates. More importantly, and certainly less probably, a player would have to really want to come to Boston. As much history as this team has, the bitterly cold winters of Massachusetts are considerably less inviting than the warm seasons of a Miami, or an LA, or a Houston. Additionally, a rebuilding situation is hardly a desirable situation for a high-level player. Drawing our center of the future to come to Beantown in free agency is possibly the least likely route.


The Draft Route

Building a team through the draft is the most plausible and viable way to ensure that your players are good fits for the team, and that they are on inexpensive contracts for the first several years of their career. Historically, the Celtics have had inconsistent success in the draft; they have found a lot of good talent in the middle of the first round, but have drafted their fair share of busts as well (Fab Melo comes to mind, but don't forget about JR Giddens). With that being said, there is a good chance that the Celtics find their center of the next several years in this upcoming draft. The board is stocked with big men, from Okafor and Towns to Cauley-Stein and Turner and Upshaw. Now, there is no guarantee that any of these players will turn out to be the next Hakeem, and in fact it's exceedingly unlikely. In fact, there's only one of them that will even project as a truly great rim-protector and defensive center. Fortunately for the Celtics, that player is the one that should fall to them around the range of the 6th pick; Willie Cauley-Stein. Now, the argument for drafting WCS will have to wait for a different article, but he is certainly a defensive-minded big that can be obtained but the Celtics in the draft, with a relatively inexpensive contract. The problem still remains though, to some degree; how well will he fit with the C's?


The Answer

While this armchair-GM will say that we should target WCS through the draft, rather than try to package some assets to trade for a rim-protector, or hoping that one decides that cold Boston winters are just their style, it doesn't really matter how we acquire a defensive-minded center. In fact, there is great risk involved with getting a center in any of these three ways, for one simple reason. It doesn't matter how good they were at the last place they were playing. It only matters how good they become after they put on the green and hit the parquet. We have a good coach, we have a lot of good young pieces, and we have a creative and intelligent GM. Rather than focusing on the things that we don't have (that we'll have in the future), we should be focusing on the development of Avery Bradley's shot, on the progress of Sullinger's shot selection and consistency, on Evan Turner's evolution into a solid point guard, and on Tyler Zeller's emergence as a high-quality rotation center. Let's pay attention to the development of our present; our future will arrive soon enough.

Unless otherwise noted, all statistics from ESPN.com



bob
MY NOTE:  Given the comments starting to swirl around Rudy Gobert and Gorgui Dieng on another thread the timing of this article is timely.  We all know what we need.  The question is "how do we get it?" and "what would we have to give up to get it?".  What route would you prefer Danny to take?

State your preferences, draw up your lists and define the terms you are willing to accept to achieve your goals.  You want Dieng?  In the trade scenario, what/who would you give up to get him (keeping in mind that whatever you are willing to offer MUST be of interest to the trading partner, else why would they agree?  Educated, considered speculation is fine but this isn't pure fantasy basketball where you can create your fantasy team just by dropping names.  This is "Let's Make a Deal", so what's in it for me?).  In the Draw scenario, how much would you be willing to pay your player to come here, remembering salary cap issues will effect your ability to build out the rest of the team.



.

bob,

I am sure that Ainge will check out all three of the avenues the article mentioned, but will likely fall back to the draft this summer.

The draft this year has 4 quality big man prospects, and even if the Celtics do not draw one of the first five ping pong ball slots I think that they will package up a few of the many draft picks to move up into such a spot. A group of two first rounders and 2 second rounders might be appropriate.

I think that the Cs would either like to get the ping pong balls to roll either their way or to the 76ers because the 76ers are 1) not as likely to take another center with a top-of-the-draft pick since they have made this same move for the last two drafts in a row and will not need a third, young, untested rookie center, and 2) because the Cs have lots of picks a few years down the road that may interest the 76ers as they are not as far along with their rebuild.

I doubt that even half of the 20 something picks Ainge has in the next five years will ever get on the court in a Celtics uniform so sending four or five of them out for a big man in this draft seems logical to me.

I guess with Jeff Green gone, I need to take up a new cause - so here goes.

I was just looking at numbers for Gobert and Dieng - and I dont see how they are in any meaningful way an upgrade over Tyler Zeller.

I know the buzz word of the moment is "rim protection" - and with a player as tall as Gobert or and as athletic as Dieng, it isnt simply the blocks per game, it is the altered shots and intimidation factor that many people point to.  Clearly, Tyler isnt an intimidating force that scares people away from driving to the hoop.

But if you look at overall game - scoring, rebounding, shooting %, blocks, steals, assists per 36 - Tyler Zeller is not only holding his own, he is better than both of those guys in many categories.




So I guess my point is not that Tyler Zeller is the answer at Center long term.  BUT, lets not get crazy and trade away a core player for a Center who is only marginally better than what we already have.

I say DA either drafts a big man this year if the lottery goes his way OR goes the free agent route - all the while, keeping Zeller as a spot starter and first big off the bench.

MrKleen, i am 100% in agreement with you. I bet Danny lsnds a decent rim protector and a good pg in the draft. Throw in a great FA acquisition and we'll be off to the races.

TJ....really sorry to hear about Kobe. Hope he comes back strong for a spectacular close to his great career.

A couple more things I like about Zeller are 1. He does not try to do things he is not capable of and 2. He sets more good picks than any other player I can think of; and very, very, seldom gets called for a moving screen. Neither of which show up in a box score.

my thoughts on this have already been posted, but I'll try to recap here:

1- Free Agents- Ainge can get below the cap enough to sign ANYONE, if he wants to.

Marc Gasol- Max contract guy, once of the best overall centers in the NBA now. May have some wear and tear on his 29YO big body. I would pass due to his age.

DeAndre Jordan- Max or near max player. 26YO so still may have upside. Has become one of the best defensive players in the NBA since Doc came to LA. Clippers may have cap issues signing him. Not much if any offense and a very poor FT shooter. I would look at him and see if there is any interest in coming to Boston, if so a deal in the $16-18M range will be required.

Greg Monroe- not a defensive player or shot blocker. I would look elsewhere if I am spending big money.

Omer Asik- may have peeked a couple years ago at  Houston and they signed Howard, so.......28YO now also. May be an option, but certainly NOT at big dollars now. $10M per year would be my very max and probably more like $8M for me.

Robin Lopez- Defensive minded Lopez twin, though Brook also got all the offense. 26YO so at the right age. IF Portland lets him walk and Ainge can get him in the $12-14M range, he is a guy I would target.


Trade:

I don't see anyone that would be a difference maker that seems to be available now. of course who might be available is an always changing scenario, but right now neither L. Sanders or Brook Lopez should be any type of consideration.

Dieng and Gobert are building blocks for each of their teams and as such are NOT going to be traded, unless your willing to give up WAY too much.


Draft:

I agree with the article that Cauley-Stein is starting to come into the crosshairs as a player who may be on the board when we pick. he should be a very good shot blocker and defensive presence in the NBA and I would be very happy if Ainge can snag him in next years draft.

Okafor and Towns are likely to go top 3 IMO.

Myles Turner may be an option, depending on when we pick also, though not near the defensive player Cauley-Stein should be, he may become a more well rounded NBA player.

However I feel there is a real chance that the Celtics may end up being OUT of the top 10 come draft day. If that is the case Danny may choose to use some of those future first rounders to move up for a guy like Cauley-Stein.

but is he has to sit tight at say the 11 pick a guy like Kaminsky may end up being an option. I see him as a possible Zeller clone though and not a top end defensive talent . Though like Zeller he has a good BBIQ and offensive skills.

and finally if we use the Clippers pick for a center:

then we are looking at players like

Christian Wood- UNLV
Jake Poetli- Utah
Robert Upshaw- Washington
Amida Brimah- U Conn

Needless to say , none of these players would be immediate rotation players in the NBA. though each has their pluses and minus.


one final note about the draft options:

I disagree with the article that says that Philly will not draft a center. IF they get the top pick, I can see them taking Okafor there easily, as he may be a 10 year NBA all star type player.

if that happens, then the TRADE issue changes, as Philly may look to move either Noel or Embiid in a trade for other assets.


so there are the options, as I see them right now.

I have no idea how close Ainge feels the Celtics are to being a contender and that is probably the biggest question to know how to proceed.

but for me, I will rank them in the order I think IMPROVES the team next year and long term.

1) D. Jordan- $18M /year deal

2) Robin Lopez- $14M/ year Deal

3) Draft Cauley-Stein somehow, even trading up if need be.

kleen I like Tyler Zeller, he has an expanding offensive game and is showing me he can score on his own without Rondo. Defensively hes improving, but limited in strength and doesn't really make much impact as a rebounder. If we can get a role playing center that excels as a rim protector/rebounder with Z as a starter or back up, we would be set at the 5.

worcester wrote:MrKleen, i am 100% in agreement with you. I bet Danny lsnds a decent rim protector and a good pg in the draft. Throw in a great FA acquisition and we'll be off to the races.

TJ....really sorry to hear about Kobe. Hope he comes back strong for a spectacular close to his great career.

Thanks Worcester.
I'm not expecting Kobe to rebound to close his career in any great fashion.
Odds are he will come back, but he doesn't have a lot left.
His body is telling him that he needs to look into finding other things to do with his time and to accept that father time has just about closed out his great career.
It would not surprise me at all if Kobe never plays another game.
Yes, he is owed $25m next season.
If LA gets a very high draft pick this summer and signs a top free agent, I could see LA waiving (stretch provision) Kobe to open another $16+m in salary cap space for the 2015-16 season.

A couple of things about Zeller that may be flying under the radar.

1. Brad is doing a masterful job of using Z in situations where he has the best chance of succeeding—even on defense. If he's being outmuscled, Brad will go with Bass or Sully who, despite their height disadvantages, can beat up on another center.

2. The Celtics' team defense is rotating better than at any time in recent memory. While that's no substitute for an intimidator in the middle, the team defense usually frees Zeller to pick and choose where he can make the biggest difference defensively.

They definitely need the intiidator. But Zeller gets my nod as the Celtic who is getting the very most out of his abilities this season.

Sam

Sam great points about our defense, also while the defense has had enough good stretches to carry us to 3 wins in 4 games, the addition by subtraction of KO's defensive game has got to only had help the defense for this stretch.

I was thinking about starting a thread about Zeller and his potential place on next year's team.

There is no question that Zeller has improved on his defensive weaknesses this season, and such improvement is related to his hard work, etc and also to the work done with him by Stevens and his staff. His offensive skills have gotten better or at least have been exposed more and more as the season has gone forward. Zeller's improvements are not unlike many of the improvements made by all of the other guys on this team as Stevens and company can really teach the game of basketball even if still young in NBA experience.

Future improvement by Zeller may make getting a true first string center less of a top priority, but I would still hope that there is a way for the Celtics to use some of those many draft picks to be able to move up in the draft process to get chance to draft one of the four, very talented big men who will likely be in the draft in June.

If Zeller is still better than whichever guy the Cs draft, then he can stay as the first stringer and help guide the young guy along. If it turns out that the young guy is better then Zeller can be the backup center. Zeller may be better next year than a raw recruit, but i don't think that Zeller will be the starting Celtics center down the road when they get competitive again in the East and in the playoffs.

He is performing very nicely right now as the backup center even though he is playing almost the same minutes he did when you was the starter. Of course, the second string guys on the other teams are not their starters for various reasons. In the NBA, it is pretty rare that a bench guy is actually lots better than the starter.

Zeller will be even better next year as he grows into his body by adding more strength and quickness. Stevens will improve his skills as well so it will be interesting to see where and what he does next season.

Clyde,

Nice, thought-provoking post.  It would have been worthy of its own thread.

Based only on observation, I think Tyler's playing his best basketball of the season at both ends of the court.

On a more factual basis, since his jet-propelled shooting percentage out of the chute, Z's shooting percentage has come back to earth.

Nov. 65.2%
Dec. 62.0%
Jan. 47.4%

I suggest that this decline is due to his increased importance in the Celtics' offense and his increased aggressiveness and assertiveness in his shot selection.  While he was starting in December, Tyler's shots per minute peaked, though they have leveled off since.  (It should be noted that the January figure includes a mix of starting and bench assignments):

Nov. 0.23
Dec. 0.35
Jan. 0.37

One only had to watch the array of hooks and jumpers (one from behind the plane of the backboard) he made in the Jazz game to conclude that he's now being more adventurous in his shot selection.

Tyler's shooting percentage is considerably better against second-line opponents than against opposing starters:

54.7% as a starter
62.2% off the bench

His shooting improves against second-line opponents:

54.7% as a starter
62.2% off the bench

One thing that is now consistently high is Tyler's free throw percentage:

Nov. 79.3%
Dec. 88.1%
Jan. 85.7%

All of these things suggest to me that Tyler has responded well to becoming more of an integral part of the Celtics' offense but that his greatest damage can probably be done as a backup.  The one caveat (influenced to some degree by his free throw percentage) is that Tyler's not a bad person to have in there at the end of a game.

I wish there were corresponding figures for defensive performance.  I took a look at the win shares data that I defamed in a recent post.  The fact that Kelly Olynyk leads all Celtics bigs in defensive win shares per minute makes me feel I didn't defame that stat nearly enough.  So I took a look at another formula claiming to measure the defensive efficiency of each player, and it had Olynyk beating all other Celtics bigs by an even larger margin because that formula weighted steals and defensive rebounds as (by far) the most important defensive contributions.

So I'd rather base my defensive opinion on my own observation of factors such as how a guy limits the scoring of an opponent, how he bothers shots, the efficiency of his help coverage and switching, his disruption of the opponent's offensive rhythm, his ability to guard tightly without fouling, his ability to stay in front of his man, etc., with less emphasis than was placed by the second formula on defensive rebounds, steals, and blocks.  Among the Celtics bigs, my vote goes to Zeller (with Bass actually being second).

Sam

I remember commenting not too long ago in a Game On! thread that Zeller was better on the move than with his back to the basket. With Rondo here, he was getting a steady diet of PnR's. With Rondo gone, the diet has been less than steady.

Now it seems that he has started to have some success setting up in the blocks. Maybe it is a learning process and he will get better at it as the season goes on.

Something to watch for during the next few games and as the season goes on as well.

gyso

Hi,
Speaking about Zeller. His post game currently leaves much to be desired, IMO. But if he masters a hook shot - there won't be many defenders to stop him.

AK

sinus his post game is getting better, he hit some shots right in Gobert's face, Gobert is a legit rim protector, we just need him to defend and board at a higher level.....

gyso,

Good observation. So far, the only talent he hasn't been able to achieve to a reasonable degree is adding brawn. It does seem that he's now creating much more for himself.

Sinus,

Based on the Jazz game, it seems to me that Zeller has already mastered the hook shot. Tommy's thrilled! Tyler unleashed a series of them, including jump hooks from as far away as 6-8 feet—one of them a left-hander. He may have missed one hook shot all evening long, but he was amazingly accurate.

Sam

Sam,
I noticed that Zeller started to "post" in the last 2-3 games.
I don't know his success rate with the hook shot but in the last 2 games it looked really raw.
I really like it that he's using this very lethal but very rare (nowdays) weapon.

AK

Guys,

All good points about Zeller, and we also need to remember that he is only in his third year in the league at 23 or 24 years old.

He is just the type of guy that Stevens and his staff seem to make improvements with on a regular basis. He is better now than at the beginning of the season, will be better at the end of the season than he is now and will be better next year as well. Of course, he will have a plateau, but none of us know when that time will come.

He could very well be our starter next year, but it would also be great to get his kind of production as a back up as well because if he is forced to be again with the second unit Ainge will have found the team a more athletic center and the team will be better as a result.

I had also noticed Zeller taking more hook shots lately and it made me wonder why he was not doing this much sooner. And, it also makes me wonder why more guys in college and in the NBA do not use this shot more often. You also never see it in high school games either.

I read a statement by Bill Russell at some time back in the day mentioning that guys with good hook shots were very difficult to defend in the post area. If the best defensive center ever thought that hook shots were tough to defend it amazes me that every big guy has not developed this shot to at least some degree. I well remember Russell using his hook shot to score many seemingly easy hoops against taller guys. Another pretty good center, Kareem Abdul Jabbar, had the most unstoppable shot ever and 'hooked' himself into championships and the Hall of Fame.

Sinus,

Did you watch the Jazz game? Zeller's hook shot was on fire! He kept going to it without hesitation and regardless of where he was vis a vis the basket. And, in most cases, he didn't catch and shoot. He had to carve out space for the shot. His lefty jump hook from about six feet had me out of my chair. And I'm too old to get out of my chair without good reason. I believe he missed only one of several hook attempts. In fact, his success with the hook really got Tommy going. In the absence of a lot of beef to bull his way to the basket like Sully, that hook, coupled with his height, is close to unblockable.

Sam

Clyde,

Russ was being a little kind. He basically ran hook shot artist Neil Johnston (a Philly star center) out of the league by blocking that hook. But that was the exception rather than the rule.

You're right there with Tommy, wondering why more guys don't use it how. At most, they shoot little, short-range jump hooks, and no one hooks from distance (I'm talking more than 15 feet).

My guess is that, when Zeller first joined the Celtics, he was very conservative because he didn't want to make mistakes. I mean, a 70% shooting percentage means he had to be shooting mostly around the rim. Then, as he became more comfortable in the system, he went further into his arsenal and pulled out what could be a real weapon in the hook shot.

The hook shot has always been my favorite basketball shot—the perfect thing for a 5' 7" guy who was usually covered by a taller opponent. Step away from the basket when you shoot it, and it'll almost never get guarded closely, to say nothing of being blocked. And, the way both Heinsohn and Cousy used a running hook from distance was one of the most beautiful things I hope ever to witness on a basketball court. Heinie would swish them from the right corner, and Cooz would bank them (with either hand) from well outside the lane.

Sam

Sam,

Since you brought up Sullenger, he also needs to learn to shoot the hook shot as it would most definitely help him around the hoop because he is smaller than many of the guys who linger at the hoop to play defense against him.

I know that I would much rather see Sullenger shoot a hook shot more than I like watching him shoot three pointers.  I am sure that you well remember Russell scoring against Chamberlain by using his hook shot and Cowens scoring against Abdul Jabbar with his lefty hook.

Again, I am not sure why this shot is not taught these days.