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Deeper Numbers Report 1: Avery Bradley
by bobheckler Sun Feb 01, 2015 4:36 am
http://www.celticsblog.com/2015/1/31/7951565/deeper-numbers-report-1-avery-bradley
Deeper Numbers Report 1: Avery Bradley
By bigbrotheryeti on Jan 31 2015, 9:53a 6
Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports
As fans of basketball, we find ourselves constantly pushed more and more towards the value of statistics (MY NOTE: That sound you just heard was Sam's head exploding). How many points, rebounds, and assists a player tallies in any given game no longer works as a viable benchmark of a player's value. We now crave efficiency as well as quantity; field goal percentage must be high, turnovers must be low, and PER hangs over the heads of the whole league like the Sword of Damocles (not sure I used that reference correctly, but let's just pretend I did). While a couple of these complex calculations are displayed in box scores, you have to dig a little deeper to get a good look at some of them. With that, I present to you the first in a series of articles using advanced metrics to analyze how well each member of the Celtics roster is playing, in a segment I call The Deeper Numbers Report.
Avery Bradley
Over the course of his time in the league, Avery Bradley has developed a reputation as a tenacious and skilled defender, even earning the nickname "The Pitbull" from his ex-teammate Kevin Garnett. He makes it difficult for opposing guards, particularly opposing point guards, to move the ball up the court, or to dribble the ball in general. His effort on the defensive side of the ball is almost unmatched in the league, and it has resulted in one selection to the All-NBA Defensive 2nd team, in 2013.
In the past two years, Bradley improved his jumpshot appreciably. Between the '12-'13 and '13-'14 season, Bradley's 3P% improved from 31.7% to 39.5%, while his usage rose from 18.8% to 23.2%. Despite having to take a larger number of shots (74 more in the season), Bradley knocked down his attempts from deep at an admirable rate. While his percentages have regressed to the mean this year, he is still knocking down a respectable 35.6% of his threes.
All of this would lead us to believe that Avery Bradley is a talented two-way player, with a penchant for ferocious defense, who is adjusting to a larger role on a rebuilding team, while continuing to develop his offensive repetoire. This is an entirely reasonable view, given the numbers that we see on the surface. However, as I've said, this is the Deeper Numbers Report, so let's do a little digging and see what the advanced metrics say.
Defense
Let's start with his defense. Of course, the numerical analysis of defense is incredibly difficult to quantify, particularly in the continually moving team sport of basketball. As it stands now, Steals and Blocks are the only statistics which appear on a box score that quantify a player's defensive accomplishments. There are, of course, a couple of less common statistics that can give us a more clear understanding. First, let's look at Defensive Rating. This is a metric which was invented by Dean Oliver, which quantifies a player's ability to prevent the opponent from scoring. This takes into account forced turnovers, missed shots, and fouls that result in missed free throws, the lower the score, the better. Given his reputation for defensive intensity and skill, we would expect that Avery Bradley's DRTG will be very low. Bradley's DRTG for the current season is 110. For perspective, that rating is worse than every other member of the Celtics except 2 (he's tied with Marcus Thornton, and James Young has a DRTG of 111). His Defensive Win Shares aren't much better; he has .7 defensive win shares, which is good for 8th on the team, but we'll talk more about that later.
So, how can we explain this phenomenon? It is clear that Bradley doesn't take plays off, he pressures the ball, and he creates steals. Actually, I'll take that last one back; despite the highlight reels, the Pitbull only averages .86 steals per game, good for 102nd in the league, according to ESPN.com. The way I see it, there are only a couple of potential explanations. Possible Explanation 1: Bradley is an overrated defender, who's energy and aggression on the less glamorous end of the court disguise the fact that he consistently overplays his man, giving up semi-open lanes to the paint. Possible Explanation 2: he consistently draws the most skilled guard on the opposing team, and plays a position that is less likely to reward his defensive ability in terms of the metrics discussed. For what it's worth, I'm inclined to believe a bit of both, leaning towards the latter. It is true that Bradley always draws the most skilled guard on defense, and there does seem to be a slight favoring of 4s and 5s when calculating DRTG. Additionally, Bradley's increased role in the offense is hurting the amount of energy he has to spend on the defensive end as well; there is a strong correlation between his increase in usage on the offense end and his worse rating on the defensive end.
Offense
Avery Bradley's offense has been an increasingly large portion of his overall game, and has improved since he entered the league. He has been tasked with putting up a large number of shots for this Celtic's offense, and has improved his 3P% to respectable levels (36% for his career, 37.2% over the last two seasons). He is athletic, a good slasher, and has showcased an advanced mid-range jumpshot, which he loves to take off of elbow pick-and-rolls and hand-offs. However, his FG% for the season currently sits at 42.3% for the season, which is hardly encouraging. When we look at more advanced statistics, the story doesn't improve too much. Bradley currently sports a below-average 10.2 PER, and a True Shooting Percentage of .502, which is tied for 50th best in the league among shooting guards. His offensive rating is 97, which suggests that he is the 11th most effective offensive player on his own team.
So, why the discrepancy between his box-score respectability and his advanced metrics failure? This is an easier question to answer than the ones that concern his defense. Bradley's shot selection is to blame. The young 2-guard is taking an astounding 41.3% of his shots from the area between the paint and the 3-point arc. Now, Bradley makes 41.6% of his shots from that area, which is a little bit above league average. However, the inefficiency of the long-range two is his undoing. Bradley is scoring .832 points per mid-range shot. Keeping in mind the frequency with which he shoots from that range, and when you consider that players should be scoring more than one point per shot, these statistics become alarming, to say the least.
Overall
It is quite clear that Avery Bradley is a skilled NBA player, with admirable talents on both sides of the ball. His defense is tenacious, his shooting is above-average, and his turnover percentage has fallen every year. He is the longest-tenured member of the Celtics, and has the potential to be a bridge between the last era of green greatness and the next. However, the advanced metrics do not support the notion that he is a cornerstone of Boston's future. His ORTG-DRTG margin is -13, his Value Over Replacement Player is falling steadily (currently at -0.5), and his PER is almost 5 points below league average. Clearly, Bradley is a piece worth hanging on to; even if his shot selection doesn't improve, his tenacious defense and energy would allow him to be the perfect defensive 6th man. Until then, he is providing a bit of veteran leadership by teaching the young bloods the meaning of hustle, without playing so well that he hurts our chances at a high draft pick. However, according to the Deeper Numbers (and based on his career thus far), while his skill is admirable, his attitude is commendable, and his hustle is undeniable, Avery Bradley should not be the starting shooting guard of the future for the Boston Celtics.
All statistics are from ESPN.com, Basketball-Reference.com, Vorped.com, and Hoopdata.com
bob
.
Deeper Numbers Report 1: Avery Bradley
By bigbrotheryeti on Jan 31 2015, 9:53a 6
Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports
As fans of basketball, we find ourselves constantly pushed more and more towards the value of statistics (MY NOTE: That sound you just heard was Sam's head exploding). How many points, rebounds, and assists a player tallies in any given game no longer works as a viable benchmark of a player's value. We now crave efficiency as well as quantity; field goal percentage must be high, turnovers must be low, and PER hangs over the heads of the whole league like the Sword of Damocles (not sure I used that reference correctly, but let's just pretend I did). While a couple of these complex calculations are displayed in box scores, you have to dig a little deeper to get a good look at some of them. With that, I present to you the first in a series of articles using advanced metrics to analyze how well each member of the Celtics roster is playing, in a segment I call The Deeper Numbers Report.
Avery Bradley
Over the course of his time in the league, Avery Bradley has developed a reputation as a tenacious and skilled defender, even earning the nickname "The Pitbull" from his ex-teammate Kevin Garnett. He makes it difficult for opposing guards, particularly opposing point guards, to move the ball up the court, or to dribble the ball in general. His effort on the defensive side of the ball is almost unmatched in the league, and it has resulted in one selection to the All-NBA Defensive 2nd team, in 2013.
In the past two years, Bradley improved his jumpshot appreciably. Between the '12-'13 and '13-'14 season, Bradley's 3P% improved from 31.7% to 39.5%, while his usage rose from 18.8% to 23.2%. Despite having to take a larger number of shots (74 more in the season), Bradley knocked down his attempts from deep at an admirable rate. While his percentages have regressed to the mean this year, he is still knocking down a respectable 35.6% of his threes.
All of this would lead us to believe that Avery Bradley is a talented two-way player, with a penchant for ferocious defense, who is adjusting to a larger role on a rebuilding team, while continuing to develop his offensive repetoire. This is an entirely reasonable view, given the numbers that we see on the surface. However, as I've said, this is the Deeper Numbers Report, so let's do a little digging and see what the advanced metrics say.
Defense
Let's start with his defense. Of course, the numerical analysis of defense is incredibly difficult to quantify, particularly in the continually moving team sport of basketball. As it stands now, Steals and Blocks are the only statistics which appear on a box score that quantify a player's defensive accomplishments. There are, of course, a couple of less common statistics that can give us a more clear understanding. First, let's look at Defensive Rating. This is a metric which was invented by Dean Oliver, which quantifies a player's ability to prevent the opponent from scoring. This takes into account forced turnovers, missed shots, and fouls that result in missed free throws, the lower the score, the better. Given his reputation for defensive intensity and skill, we would expect that Avery Bradley's DRTG will be very low. Bradley's DRTG for the current season is 110. For perspective, that rating is worse than every other member of the Celtics except 2 (he's tied with Marcus Thornton, and James Young has a DRTG of 111). His Defensive Win Shares aren't much better; he has .7 defensive win shares, which is good for 8th on the team, but we'll talk more about that later.
So, how can we explain this phenomenon? It is clear that Bradley doesn't take plays off, he pressures the ball, and he creates steals. Actually, I'll take that last one back; despite the highlight reels, the Pitbull only averages .86 steals per game, good for 102nd in the league, according to ESPN.com. The way I see it, there are only a couple of potential explanations. Possible Explanation 1: Bradley is an overrated defender, who's energy and aggression on the less glamorous end of the court disguise the fact that he consistently overplays his man, giving up semi-open lanes to the paint. Possible Explanation 2: he consistently draws the most skilled guard on the opposing team, and plays a position that is less likely to reward his defensive ability in terms of the metrics discussed. For what it's worth, I'm inclined to believe a bit of both, leaning towards the latter. It is true that Bradley always draws the most skilled guard on defense, and there does seem to be a slight favoring of 4s and 5s when calculating DRTG. Additionally, Bradley's increased role in the offense is hurting the amount of energy he has to spend on the defensive end as well; there is a strong correlation between his increase in usage on the offense end and his worse rating on the defensive end.
Offense
Avery Bradley's offense has been an increasingly large portion of his overall game, and has improved since he entered the league. He has been tasked with putting up a large number of shots for this Celtic's offense, and has improved his 3P% to respectable levels (36% for his career, 37.2% over the last two seasons). He is athletic, a good slasher, and has showcased an advanced mid-range jumpshot, which he loves to take off of elbow pick-and-rolls and hand-offs. However, his FG% for the season currently sits at 42.3% for the season, which is hardly encouraging. When we look at more advanced statistics, the story doesn't improve too much. Bradley currently sports a below-average 10.2 PER, and a True Shooting Percentage of .502, which is tied for 50th best in the league among shooting guards. His offensive rating is 97, which suggests that he is the 11th most effective offensive player on his own team.
So, why the discrepancy between his box-score respectability and his advanced metrics failure? This is an easier question to answer than the ones that concern his defense. Bradley's shot selection is to blame. The young 2-guard is taking an astounding 41.3% of his shots from the area between the paint and the 3-point arc. Now, Bradley makes 41.6% of his shots from that area, which is a little bit above league average. However, the inefficiency of the long-range two is his undoing. Bradley is scoring .832 points per mid-range shot. Keeping in mind the frequency with which he shoots from that range, and when you consider that players should be scoring more than one point per shot, these statistics become alarming, to say the least.
Overall
It is quite clear that Avery Bradley is a skilled NBA player, with admirable talents on both sides of the ball. His defense is tenacious, his shooting is above-average, and his turnover percentage has fallen every year. He is the longest-tenured member of the Celtics, and has the potential to be a bridge between the last era of green greatness and the next. However, the advanced metrics do not support the notion that he is a cornerstone of Boston's future. His ORTG-DRTG margin is -13, his Value Over Replacement Player is falling steadily (currently at -0.5), and his PER is almost 5 points below league average. Clearly, Bradley is a piece worth hanging on to; even if his shot selection doesn't improve, his tenacious defense and energy would allow him to be the perfect defensive 6th man. Until then, he is providing a bit of veteran leadership by teaching the young bloods the meaning of hustle, without playing so well that he hurts our chances at a high draft pick. However, according to the Deeper Numbers (and based on his career thus far), while his skill is admirable, his attitude is commendable, and his hustle is undeniable, Avery Bradley should not be the starting shooting guard of the future for the Boston Celtics.
All statistics are from ESPN.com, Basketball-Reference.com, Vorped.com, and Hoopdata.com
bob
.
bobheckler- Posts : 62543
Join date : 2009-10-28
Re: Deeper Numbers Report 1: Avery Bradley
by wide clyde Sun Feb 01, 2015 12:11 pm
I also agree that Bradley will not be a part of the final rebuild, and wondered why he was signed to a four year contract last summer.
The only way I could be convinced to change my mind on Bradley would be if Ainge can find a top level point guard who can score, defend and distribute the ball so that Bradley could fit better into the two things that he does fairly well which are shooting and defending.
On second thought, I am not sure that he is part of the successful rebuild. Definitely confused and contradicting myself on Super Bowl Sunday.
The only way I could be convinced to change my mind on Bradley would be if Ainge can find a top level point guard who can score, defend and distribute the ball so that Bradley could fit better into the two things that he does fairly well which are shooting and defending.
On second thought, I am not sure that he is part of the successful rebuild. Definitely confused and contradicting myself on Super Bowl Sunday.
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Join date : 2014-10-22
Re: Deeper Numbers Report 1: Avery Bradley
by Sam Sun Feb 01, 2015 12:58 pm
I've been claiming for a long, long time that Avery's defense is not what it used to be. I believe the word "tenacious" no longer fits, largely because he no longer plays disruptive defense when the other team takes the ball upcourt. But it's more than that. He too often gets beaten on the baseline. It's always been relatively easy for larger point guards to shoot over him, although he sometimes mitigates that option by getting under them and playing them tight. I don't mean to impugn him completely as a defender because that would be unfair; he still has good defensive skills. I just feel that, at this point, his defense reputation is a bigger part of how he's regarded than his actual defensive performance it.
Offensively, I think his jumper is a really good weapon, especially because he's very good at stopping short and popping, and it's not easy to make jumpers on the move as he does. He has improved his three-poiint shot, although I wish he were more selective in using it; and it's entirely possible that his three-point percentage has plateaued.
But what makes me suspicious of this writer's credentials is his claim that Avery's a "good slasher." He's not bad at getting to the rim when he can do it within a couple of dribbles, but he often kicks the ball away on longer forays include breakaways. And, when he does get to the rim, his ability to finish qualifies as "unfortunate" (and I'm being kind).
I'll give the writer credit for mentioning that Avery could be a good sixth man. If there's any truth to the fact that his defensive energy has been taxed by his offensive development (which falls pretty much in the "Give me a break" category as far as I'm concerned), fewer minutes might give him more energy on both ends. (Typing that made me wretch. I believe that what has sapped him of energy is the natural process of eroding athleticism.) And he can be the kind of streaky shooter who can be a one-man wrecking crew for a few minutes at a time. However, it often takes time for him to warm up as a starter, so I worry about how effective he might be as a bench guy.
He tries hard. He seems like a good guy. He doesn't make waves in the locker room. His mid-range jumper is really good. But, on balance, he doesn't strike me as a consistently high-impact starter on a highly competitive team.
Sam
Offensively, I think his jumper is a really good weapon, especially because he's very good at stopping short and popping, and it's not easy to make jumpers on the move as he does. He has improved his three-poiint shot, although I wish he were more selective in using it; and it's entirely possible that his three-point percentage has plateaued.
But what makes me suspicious of this writer's credentials is his claim that Avery's a "good slasher." He's not bad at getting to the rim when he can do it within a couple of dribbles, but he often kicks the ball away on longer forays include breakaways. And, when he does get to the rim, his ability to finish qualifies as "unfortunate" (and I'm being kind).
I'll give the writer credit for mentioning that Avery could be a good sixth man. If there's any truth to the fact that his defensive energy has been taxed by his offensive development (which falls pretty much in the "Give me a break" category as far as I'm concerned), fewer minutes might give him more energy on both ends. (Typing that made me wretch. I believe that what has sapped him of energy is the natural process of eroding athleticism.) And he can be the kind of streaky shooter who can be a one-man wrecking crew for a few minutes at a time. However, it often takes time for him to warm up as a starter, so I worry about how effective he might be as a bench guy.
He tries hard. He seems like a good guy. He doesn't make waves in the locker room. His mid-range jumper is really good. But, on balance, he doesn't strike me as a consistently high-impact starter on a highly competitive team.
Sam
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Re: Deeper Numbers Report 1: Avery Bradley
by wide clyde Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:25 pm
All good points, Sam, and for all of those points it might still be wise to trade him now before his value drops.
wide clyde- Posts : 815
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